Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments

[petetheladd 0]

I came across this paper that did some studies on peoples ability to rate their own abilities.

It brought to mind the current problem in skydiving of people tending to fly canopies they are not competent to fly and not inclined to listen to their wiser peers about the danger they expose themselves too.

Heres the Abstract

Abstract
People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. Across 4 studies, the authors found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability. Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd. Several analyses linked this miscalibration to deficits in metacognitive skill, or the capacity to distinguish accuracy from error. Paradoxically, improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities.



Perhaps the best illustration of this tendency is the "above-average effect," or the tendency of the average person to believe he or she is above average, a result that defies the logic of descriptive statistics


Tell me if that does'nt sum up the aggressive canopy situation to a Tee

The study made and substantiated the following predictions.

Prediction 1. Incompetent individuals, compared with their more competent peers, will dramatically overestimate their ability and performance relative to objective criteria.

Prediction 2. Incompetent individuals will suffer from deficient metacognitive skills, in that they will be less able than their more competent peers to recognize competence when they see it–be it their own or anyone else's.

Prediction 3. Incompetent individuals will be less able than their more competent peers to gain insight into their true level of performance by means of social comparison information. In particular, because of their difficulty recognizing competence in others, incompetent individuals will be unable to use information about the choices and performances of others to form more accurate impressions of their own ability.

Prediction 4. The incompetent can gain insight about their shortcomings, but this comes (paradoxically) by making them more competent, thus providing them the metacognitive skills necessary to be able to realize that they have performed poorly.

So would presenting this kind of study make people review their canopy choices ? i.e. make them more competent.

A corolly effect seemed to be that competent people can tend to underestimate their abilities.

How often have you heard people with thousands of jumps saying they still dont know Jack while the 300 jump wonder believes he has the inside track.

Heres the actual link for anyone that wants to read the whole article.

http://www.apa.org/journals/psp/psp7761121.html

I am interested to hear what all the "above average" canopy flyers think about these results

P.T.L

No, Not without incident

[Hooknswoop 19]

"Charles Darwin (1871) sagely noted over a century ago, "ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge""

Bingo. If they are ignorant of the risks but believe they can and have correctly assessed the risks, no one can convince them otherwise. You might as well try to convince that water isn't wet. They assign jealousy, ignorance, ego, etc to others comment about their canopy choice and their abilities because they feel they cannot possibly be wrong.

There is another angle. Sometimes people do realize they are in over their heads with their small canopy, but their Ego and the desire to be praised by their peers overrides good judgement. They understand the risks, but place the 'cool factor' above safety.

Do some research on young drivers and you will find extensive research and examples of this phenomena.

The question is, how to combat this.

Derek

[kelpdiver 2]

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So would presenting this kind of study make people review their canopy choices ? i.e. make them more competent.

No, for the pretty much the same reasons presented in the article.

Other truths:
1- People attribute success to skill, failure to luck. In skydiving success = lack of bad incidents. For us low timers, odds are favorable that we haven't had any bad incidents yet because of the low number of jumps. If we choose to attribute that to our great skill, the mindset ensues. If instead we hit some trouble with learning or landings or just experience a mal, not quite so proud.

2- On the other end, you have very experienced jumpers that presume that their higher jump count and years in the sport automatically make them more skilled than someone with less. And that leads to thinking that anyone progressing faster than they did themselves are reckless and an accident waiting to happen. You can have 1000 jumps experience, or 100 jumps experience 10 years in over and over again.

#2 is very common in scuba diving.

[nathaniel 0]

While this is undoubtedly true of some jumpers at every level of experience, this is a difficult proposition to levy on an individual because it's a catch-22. By conceding it seems the individual in question would be contradicting the claim.

It's one of my favorite studies, nonetheless
nathaniel

My advice is to do what your parents did; get a job, sir. The bums will always lose. Do you hear me, Lebowski?

[dnewcomer 0]

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2- On the other end, you have very experienced jumpers that presume that their higher jump count and years in the sport automatically make them more skilled than someone with less.

Two Comments:

#1 -- We all have a volume of knowledge that might be thought of as a occupying a sphere of certain size. Individuals with lots of knowledge have enough information to occupy a very large sphere......yet they can see there is an even larger body of knowledge just outside the perimeter of that sphere that they do not know.

People with little knowledge have enough information to fill only a small sphere, so they don't see much knowledge on the perimeter of that small sphere that they do not know. They think they are the masters of everything that can be known about......anything.

It may seem paradoxical, but the more you learn, the more you realize how little you know. (Notice this is not the same as saying: "The more you learn, the less you know.")

#2 -- Someone once said, "Wisdom does not necessarily come with age. Sometimes age comes alone." This may apply to some long-time jumpers who have been in the sport for many years. The people I listen to most carefully when they talk are those with 8,000 or more jumps who have never had a serious accident and are still jumping canopies >150 sq ft and wing-loaded <1.4:1. They are often the first ones to stop jumping when wind speeds pick up and people with <200 jumps are still in the air.

I consider myself a low-time jumper with a modicum of skydiving experience, and the more I see, read, listen, and learn, the better I understand my limitations......not the other way around. I am often amazed at the advice that is offered in the Forum by so-called "experienced" jumpers -- remember, Darwin's Law is lurking.

Let's all keep safe out there.

D--

[tcnelson 1]

from the abstract, apparently, they only looked at the bottom 25%. so, in effect, they proved that morons are morons. i'm so glad that the world can now rest with the knowledge that there are definitely morons in the population.

by the way, the american psychological association (apa) will be the first to tell anyone that statistics can be presented to the public in any fashion that the particular author sees fit to support his/her position.

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[tcnelson 1]

#1: knowledge has nothing to do with the surface area of a sphere. wisdom is not directly correlated with knowledge.

#2: people who wish to have no accidents, above all else, will tend to have no accidents. people who push themselves and the limits of their equipment will always be at more risk than the reserved operator. they will also be the ones that are remembered for the advancements that have/are/will be made in their respective fields of expertise.

edited for sp.

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[WrongWay 0]

And to think I was sitting here hoping you'd read this thread and learn something. Sheesh.

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wisdom is not directly correlated with knowledge.

So you're telling me that any 100 jump chump, or better yet, any tandem passenger can safety swoop a Velocity 200 feet off of pure wisdom? Not only that, but doesn't the action of one making stupid decisions repeatedly contradict one's supposed wisdom? If one is doing stupid things, they cannot be considered wise by anyone but themselves.

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#2: people who wish to have no accidents, above all else, will tend to have no accidents.

Last time I checked, nobody wants to have an accident. DUH.

There's a difference between not wanting to have accidents and actually taking precautions against them (like not doing anything stupid that would cause accidents).

Edited to remove part of post. PM'd.

Wrong Way
D #27371 Mal Manera Rodriguez Cajun Chicken Ø Hellfish #451
The wiser wolf prevails.

[Ron 10]

Why am I not surprized YOU don't get the message here?

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

[Chrisky 2]

He's stating an abstract. Wisdom enables you to make the right choice by recognizing it based on intelligence. Knowledge (of previous situations) doesn't necessarily enable you to make the right decision.
Of course, knowledge in combination with intelligence is the best combination. One can be wise without being knowledgeable (i.e. like a young jumper taking a conservative approach after analyzing the circumstances), and vice versa (380+ jump wonder "knows" he was aggressive and successful the last times, hooks it in).

Like knowing that someone wasn't run over by a truck because he dropped flat on the ground doesn't help decide to (wisely) jump aside if the car is only 2" from the ground...
Not correlating wisdom and knowledge does not mean a knowledgeable person can't be wise, neither vice versa.

Sokrates, 400 bc, "I know that i know nothing".
Very new find...

Didn't some study about skydivers find that on average skydivers are people of higher intelligence compared to the average population? This is not to make this study inapplicable but to question studies in general, respecticely to always read the whole of it...


What do i know?

The mind is like a parachute - it only works once it's open.
From the edge you just see more.
... Not every Swooper hooks & not every Hooker swoops ...

[tcnelson 1]

did you have anything important to post in regard to this thread or were you just making sure that i new that you think i'm incorrect?

i'm not surprised that you think that i didn't get the message and just don't agree with the premise.

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[tcnelson 1]

Quote

So you're telling me that any 100 jump chump, or better yet, any tandem passenger can safety swoop a Velocity 200 feet off of pure wisdom?

no

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[MarkM 0]

I think the study has less to say about idiots and more about human behavior in general. It doesn't matter if you're an expert or a novice, you can easily overestimate your ability.

A good rule of thumb would be to just think that your own opinion about your own skill in any given area can be biased. Finding unbiased outside judges on your abilities though can also be hard.

[Liemberg 0]

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from the abstract, apparently, they only looked at the bottom 25%. so, in effect, they proved that morons are morons.

No.

Morons are morons without realising that they are morons.

Big difference.

"Whoever in discussion adduces authority uses not intellect but memory." - Leonardo da Vinci
A thousand words...

[tcnelson 1]

No.

Morons can be morons without realising that they are morons.

Small difference, yet important.

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[Ron 10]

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did you have anything important to post in regard to this thread or were you just making sure that i new that you think i'm incorrect?

Yes, and I already posted it.

Several others with TONS more experience than you say you are a DGIT...But you think you are safe.

So I don't find it real strange that you don't agree with the study.

You see the study is about people who are not that skilled but think they ARE skilled.

You are the poster child for a guy that thinks he is more skilled than he is.

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

[tcnelson 1]

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You see the study is about people who are not that skilled but think they ARE skilled.

i'm well aware of what the study was about, ronny...

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You are the poster child for a guy that thinks he is more skilled than he is.

so you say...

No personal attacks. Your one warning.

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[tonyhays 86]

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and you're the poster child for the skydiver whose skill has given him a BIG FUCKIN' head

I disagree. After reading Ron's posts, I think he is more of the poster child for safety and common sense. Ron just doesn't sugar coat his advice.

I suspect you'll come around to his way of thinking in a few hundred jumps after you've survived(hopefully) a few scares.

“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”

[Ron 10]

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You are the poster child for a guy that thinks he is more skilled than he is.

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so you say...and you're the poster child for the skydiver whose skill has given him a BIG FUCKIN' head. come meet me; skydive with me; drink with me; enjoy life with me; and then tell me that i'm dangerous.

My big head or not, many people have said you are dangerous...You fit the profile perfectly. A young skydiver with a few hundred jumps and a fast canopy that has been warned he is in danger and refuses to listen to advice from people with MUCH more experience. And you just seem to big headed to notice, your inflated EGO will not let you listen.

I have helped scrape up many jumpers who were just like you. I have burried a few that were not lucky enough to survive their egos.

As for drinking beer with you, jumping with you, and enjoying life with you......

I don't drink, but thanks the same...I'll have a coke.

I'll jump with you, but I'm gonna watch you like a hawk under canopy...I have been told you have cut people off, and swooped WAY to close to other people.

Enjoy life....Well I will. I am TRYING to get you to see that while the course you are on may SEEM fun....But one small accident and you are broken. Being broken sucks. No jumping, high medical bills...Hell I have friends that can barely walk after a skydiving accident. I have seen guys just like you that had promise of being the next hot thing in this sport, the future leaders, let their ego select the canopy they jump. One small mistake later and they are broken, washed up, or dead....Its hard to be the next hot thing when you are broken and your medical bills make it so you can't afford to jump. If you do break yourself and have to sit out for a year or better, its hard to get that edge back...And well a dead guy has never won the Nationals.

One of my best friends is dead...His ego and his high level of skill failed him when he needed them...I jumped his main and reservre at the Nationals in 2002...I could not jump his rig since we could not get the blood stains out of it.

You think I have a big head? Look in a mirror....I STILL listen to advice...You don't. I have 16 times the jumps you do. Thats for every jump you have ever done, I have done 16. And I STILL get advice. I have test jumped for two different canopy manufactorers, and I STILL listen to advice. In 97 I was jumping a cross braced 88...And had put several jumps on the 69...Back when there were maybe THREE in the US..And I STILL listen to advice.

I did 46 jumps LAST WEEK (which is 1/4 of your TOTAL jumps)...And I STILL listen to advice.

Now, who has the big head? The guy that has 3300 jumps that still listens to advice when given to him. And he tries like hell to wake up the newer jumpers that are going down a dangerous path. Or the guy with 200 jumps and already acts like he knows it all, and when given advice blows it off and claims the people giving it have big heads?

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

[WrongWay 0]

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come meet me; skydive with me; drink with me; enjoy life with me; and then tell me that i'm dangerous.

I've done all of these things.

Wrong Way
D #27371 Mal Manera Rodriguez Cajun Chicken Ø Hellfish #451
The wiser wolf prevails.

[Liemberg 0]

Quote

and then tell me that i'm dangerous

If I may be so bold...

You are dangerous.

But do I care that you are?
No, not really. I'm pretty sure I wont be there when you read the fine prints - after buying the farm.

It would be another ballgame if you were jumping at my place. I don't think I would care either (invincible 200 jump wonders do that to me and yes, I do meet them at my place)
Since I have MY business to protect I guess that it wouldn't take me long to ask you to take YOUR business elsewhere.
My DZ is on a small island, I depend on the community being on a municipal airport, I don't want paramedics scaring the tandempassengers away and my image-problem is bad enough as it is...

Maybe a little of topic but one former 200 jump wonder who frequents my place occasionally now has a Stilleto 150 for sale.

He replaced it with a Pilot 150. (mind you - he is no longer the 200 jump wonder he was when he bought the Stilleto - he is an "almost 400 jump wonder" now!)

He had fun swooping and became really proficient but he just recently opted for a bit more conservative approach after the doctor told him that although the surgery was 100% successful, shattering his foot one more time probably would leave him crippled for the rest of his life. Since that would mean unemployment in his current career, he counted his blessings and is now happy landing his parachute the same way an old geezer like me does...

Him I warned beforehand. (and in retrospect maybe I should have told him to take his business elsewhere. Lucky me - he did that with his accident...)

But you, you can go right ahead - it may be your constitutional right and I wouldn't want to violate that!

"Whoever in discussion adduces authority uses not intellect but memory." - Leonardo da Vinci
A thousand words...

[petetheladd 0]

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from the abstract, apparently, they only looked at the bottom 25%. so, in effect, they proved that morons are morons. i'm so glad that the world can now rest with the knowledge that there are definitely morons in the population.

These studies were done on a cross section of college students not morons/retards/etc...

Your attitude to information seems to be of the 'I dont accept what I dont like' school.

You claim to be safe and heads up yet show a remarkable ability to discount anything said to you - online at least.

No, hmm... interesting or well let me just imagine they have a point.
Then the height of hubris, just discount a scientific study because it seems to profile you too closely and highlights your blind spots/Inadequacies to a T.

I count my blessings you are someone elses problem

P.t.L

No, Not without incident

[ManBird 0]

This study is rad.

So, if smart people underestimate themselves and dumb people overestimate themselves, is it those with average intelligence that know exactly what they are doing?

"¯"`-._.-¯) ManBird (¯-._.-´"¯"

Click

[Albatross 0]

It seems to me that this is a good reflection of our society in which often people take opinions and repeat them and never examine them. This is the "moron" attitude" they never critically examine what they think or do but jsut do it and move on if they survive.
For canopies it is exactly this. They land the live they never think about the factors or examine what they did, experiment or rationalize.
THey jsut blindly go on living till they hit the wall

Chris

[Push 0]

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from the abstract, apparently, they only looked at the bottom 25%. so, in effect, they proved that morons are morons

From the posted link (bold mine):

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We explored these predictions in four studies. In each, we presented participants with tests that assessed their ability in a domain in which knowledge, wisdom, or savvy was crucial: humor (Study 1), logical reasoning (Studies 2 and 4), and English grammar (Study 3). We then asked participants to assess their ability and test performance... we predicted that those who proved to be incompetent (i.e., those who scored in the bottom quarter of the distribution) would be unaware that they had performed poorly.

Notice that they did not preselect incompetent people. I love it when people assume that someone who wrote a paper does not understand elementary statistics, especially in psychology/medicine. Hint: if you know it, they probably do too. Check first, then make claims.

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by the way, the american psychological association (apa) will be the first to tell anyone that statistics can be presented to the public in any fashion that the particular author sees fit to support his/her position.

It is true that you can feed the general public all kinds of crap, but this problem has nothing to do with statistics. People who don't understand statistics keep on saying that statistics can be interpreted to say anything. It's not true. Someone who doesn't understand statistics will be more gullible to charlatans, but statistics itself is just data, and it's their problem that they can't read it. I've tried educating people about statistics on this forum already and it didn't work too well, so I will spare you the same effort unless you ask.

-- Toggle Whippin' Yahoo
Skydiving is easy. All you have to do is relax while plummetting at 120 mph from 10,000' with nothing but some nylon and webbing to save you.