So what do you think???

[MakeItHappen 15]

Attached is a diagram of license numbers over the years.
Each data point is the maximum license number published in Parachutist in the January issue of a given year.
Missing data points are either because no licenses were published or I did not have the magazine.

So what do you think about this data and what conclusions would you draw?

I have my theories, but I want to hear your theories.

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Make It Happen
Parachute History
DiveMaker

[BillyVance 35]

Interesting to see B and D almost the same. No surprise with A taking off, I think a lot of people jump just enough to get their A license and then stop, or the A is all they care to get and don't plan on doing anything that requires a higher license... I dunno. C is about where I expect it to be, as a lot of jumpers who get the C don't bother to get the D, maybe because they don't care to do the night jumps.

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[labrys 0]

To me, it says that some time around the mid nineties people started quitting akydiving before they got any license beyond "A".

That's based on the assumption that people who stick with it get the other licenses, which I think is a reasonable assumption for the population in general.

Owned by Remi #?

[shropshire 0]

Over here in the 80's in the U.K, people didn't bother applying for A or B but got both when the applied for C (which I did). So then the numbers would be about the same.

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[MakeItHappen 15]

Quote

Over here in the 80's in the U.K, people didn't bother applying for A or B but got both when the applied for C (which I did). So then the numbers would be about the same.

Perhaps, some leading questions may help you in looking at this in the long term.

Something happened in the early 90's to augment the entrainment of A licenses.
So what was that?
- the introduction of the CYPRES?
- the 3-3 system of training?
- something else?

There is a 'blip' when the D licencse was changed from 200 to 500 jumps. You can clearly see that in the data for C and D licenses.
There is no blip for BIC or Coach or USPA TI ratings.

So why does the A license take off in the early 90's and continue to today, but there is no corresponding increase for other licences?

So why do jumpers go get their A license and boast about it, but yet we do not see them get their B or higher license?
Are we losing (non-renewal) our jumpers between A and B?

And also consider that all of the license curves are under-estimates of the people actually qualified for that license. Many people skip the intermediate licenses.

What is the reason for the high growth rate of A licenses since the early 90s?
Maybe we can use that reason to augment the higher level licences.

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Make It Happen
Parachute History
DiveMaker

[labrys 0]

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Something happened in the early 90's to augment the entrainment of A licenses.

When did tandems become "mainstream"?

Edit to add:

I haven't been around long so I can't compare the culture in skydiving now to the culture that existed years ago, but I did wonder if tandems increased the accessibility of trying a skydive for many people who then went on to get an A license and lost interest in a shorter span of time than someone who experienced their first jump as a "solo".

It seems possible IMO that people who braved the static line experience may have been approaching the skydive with a higher likelyhood of sticking with it because it involved a little more personal commitment than a tandem.

Owned by Remi #?

[MotherGoose 0]

OK, so I did a bit of heavy drinking last night and I'm not "functioning" as well as I should be, so I'm pretty sure someone is going to make me look like a complete moron for asking this next question that probably has a very obvious answer, but ...... here goes .....

How can you issue more C licenses than B licences ?? Would you not need more B's than C's?? Please tell me Im not a big dumbass here ...

You think you understand the situation, but what you don't understand, is that the situation just changed.

[labrys 0]

Because a B is not required to get a C. A lot of people skip the B and go directly to C.

Owned by Remi #?

[MotherGoose 0]

I suppose this is only in the USPA? I did not know that. Not sure if it makes to much sense to me, but I'm sure there is a very good reason for it. A straight to C? Why even have a B ?

You think you understand the situation, but what you don't understand, is that the situation just changed.

[MotherGoose 0]

But I just look up the USPA website :

C License

3. Persons holding a USPA C license are able to exercise all privileges of a B-license holder, are eligible for the USPA Instructor rating (except USPA Tandem Instructor), participate in certain demonstration jumps, may ride as passenger on USPA Tandem Instructor training and rating renewal jumps, and must have--

a. met all current requirements for or hold a USPA B license

b. completed 200 jumps, including accumulating at least 60 minutes of controlled freefall time

c. landed within two meters of target center on 25 jumps

d. aerial performance requirements, either:

(1) during freefall, perform in sequence within 18 seconds-a backloop, front loop, left 360-degree turn, right 360-degree turn, right barrel roll and left barrel roll

(2) completed at least two points on an 8-way or larger random skydive

e. Passed a written exam conducted by a current USPA I/E, S&TA, or USPA Board member.

Ok so it says met all requirements OR hold a B license, very interesting

You think you understand the situation, but what you don't understand, is that the situation just changed.

[labrys 0]

Because it sets a goal and gives the license holder privledges they don't have with an A. Just because a lot of people skip over it doesn't mean it doesn't have value to some.

I skipped my B because I never needed it. If something had come up that I wanted to do between B and C and required a B (night jumps) I would have faxed in the paperwork and forked over my 20 bucks.

Some people take longer than others to complete the requirements also. I went from B qualified to C qualified, as do many others) in a short time. Some don't.

Owned by Remi #?

[MotherGoose 0]

Well, I apologize for diverting the thread for a moment there, back to the graph, I'll have to agree that with the advent of AAD's, Tandems, AFF etc., the sport has been made more accesible to the general public. Also, I'd draw the conclusion that with the ease and affordability of video camera's, the sport has been showcased more throughout the 90's and well into the present. More and more one time jumpers have video evidence of their brave escapades, and it probably inspires friends and family to jump. This sport is easy to get into up to an A license, but IMO it gets very difficult and pricey very fast, and that's where the numbers start to dwindle.

You think you understand the situation, but what you don't understand, is that the situation just changed.

[labrys 0]

Quote

and that's where the numbers start to dwindle.

Again, I don't really have the knowledge or experience to comment about what does or doesn't make people stick around, but this graph, from a purely statistical view, doesn't show numbers dwindling. It show a pretty constant rate of licensing until the "A" spike mid 90's.

The number of people continuing along to B, C, and D remains pretty constant, with more people getting A's and not going any further.

Owned by Remi #?

[MotherGoose 0]

Thats waht I meant by dwindle ... the drop in numbers from A to the others. I agree the sport has been growing @ a very steady pace since its inception.

You think you understand the situation, but what you don't understand, is that the situation just changed.

[MakeItHappen 15]

Quote

purely statistical view, doesn't show numbers dwindling. It show a pretty constant rate of licensing until the "A" spike mid 90's.

The number of people continuing along to B, C, and D remains pretty constant, with more people getting A's and not going any further.

And that is the conundrum, why is USPA membership decreasing?
(at more than the attrition rate because of age?)
N_total = N_renew + N_new

Renewals are down, not the number of new jumpers.

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Make It Happen
Parachute History
DiveMaker

[lisamariewillbe 1]

Quote

So why does the A license take off in the early 90's and continue to today, but there is no corresponding increase for other licences?

So why do jumpers go get their A license and boast about it, but yet we do not see them get their B or higher license?

Well at a newbie level we want that proof we are a skydiver. Getting to a A seems the way to do it. We are cleared to jump with others and are considered proficient enough at survival skills to work on our playing skills. Its also what we need to travel to other DZs without having to do an expensive coach jump. Theres alot of motivation to recieve the A card. Personally I only have a signed and stamped card because I am a cheapskate and until I qual for my B I have no desire to send in more money.

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Are we losing (non-renewal) our jumpers between A and B?

Yes, I think so, Im at that crossroad myself, and have been for months now. Theres alot to this world besides jumping from a plane and after so much time in here we must decide if it is enough. Im at the point where either I quit, or I go full force and become a constent skydiver. More then likely I will quit I think. I know several who are battling this "Do I stay or do I go" if I stay I have very specfic goals. I envy those who have quit the sport without the need for the sky. I wont quit until I am at peace with not needing the sky. I dont think theres anything that can be done to stop people from quitting at this stage. Some of us arent cut out to be skydivers. It just takes 100ish jumps to find it out.

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Maybe we can use that reason to augment the higher level licences.

The higher lisences are specfic to things not everyone wants. I dont care to land on the beach, if I were to be C qual, I wouldnt apply for the lisence because it doesnt allow anything of me that I want. Same with D. If people have little desire to be what those lisence says we can be, why apply?

Sudsy Fist: i don't think i'd ever say this
Sudsy Fist: but you're looking damn sudsydoable in this

[labrys 0]

Quote

And that is the conundrum, why is USPA membership decreasing?
(at more than the attrition rate because of age?)
N_total = N_renew + N_new

Renewals are down, not the number of new jumpers.

To answer that, you'd have to also present data that shows how many members had licenses then versus now. If only 50 percent of the USPA members had a license 10 years ago vs. 75 percent having them now then there's no conundrum at all. Membership could drop a big percentage with the license rate remaining the same.

I'm not saying that's the case, just that it's a factor you have to include if you want to be objective.

Owned by Remi #?

[MarkM 0]

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I skipped my B because I never needed it. If something had come up that I wanted to do between B and C and required a B (night jumps) I would have faxed in the paperwork and forked over my 20 bucks.

Night jumps don't require a B, you just have to be B qualified. Unless there's a boogie somewhere that requires a B license to jump, it's pretty much a useless license as far as I know.

Personally I think the chart is so skewed because the sport has a huge dropout rate between post student status and 200 jumps. Generally when I meet someone with 50 jumps it's in the back of my mind I probably won't see them around next year. But when I meet someone with 200+ jumps I tend to assume they're gonna be around awhile.

[kallend 2,147]

Well, in addition to the factors mentioned (CYPRES, etc) there was a general burst in training activity as turbine DZs became common, and the growth of freeflying maybe tended to attract jumpers who weren't into the structured A-B-C-D progression.

The decline in USPA membership since when, (2002?) combined with the continued growth in "A"s also suggests to me that many people get the "A" and then drop out. Too many other activities competing?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[labrys 0]

Where does the SIM say that you only have to be B qualified?

Edit: Never mind, I found it.

Owned by Remi #?

[MotherGoose 0]

Quote

Yes, I think so, Im at that crossroad myself, and have been for months now. Theres alot to this world besides jumping from a plane and after so much time in here we must decide if it is enough. Im at the point where either I quit, or I go full force and become a constent skydiver. More then likely I will quit I think. I know several who are battling this "Do I stay or do I go" if I stay I have very specfic goals. I envy those who have quit the sport without the need for the sky. I wont quit until I am at peace with not needing the sky. I dont think theres anything that can be done to stop people from quitting at this stage. Some of us arent cut out to be skydivers. It just takes 100ish jumps to find it out.

Wow....I never imagined there would be that many people who jump from a plane 100 times and realize that the sport is not for them. Im not sure I buy that argument at all. I fully agree with not upgrading your license if you have no interest in the privelages of that license, but to claim that there are many jumpers who lose their need for the sky at around 100 jumps is arguable. This sport just keeps you wanting, if you are getting bored, you must be jumping solo a lot. I just did my first 10 way (I know -) and it was awesome. I also did my first CRW dock and I landed it docked (I know -), and it was amazing. Now I want to do a 20 way and a CRW downplane!! The possibilities are endless, just go out and find them. Not trying to bash here, I just don't think your statement was correct in explaining the drop in renewals.

You think you understand the situation, but what you don't understand, is that the situation just changed.

[MarkM 0]

Quote

Wow....I never imagined there would be that many people who jump from a plane 100 times and realize that the sport is not for them. Im not sure I buy that argument at all.

I can totally see it taking 100 jumps to find out you don't want to stay in the sport. After that long the newness of just jumping would wear off, the jumper isn't skilled enough to do VRW, wingsuits, swooping, etc, so their jump options are limited. They've been to a few DZs by then, maybe a major boogie, so then they either work really hard on getting in the skills for the next phase of the sport they want or move on.

[MotherGoose 0]

Well then maybe the answer to this "conundrum" is simpler than we think. We are all repsonsible for the drop in renewals or upgrades after A license. The whole skydiving community should nurture the lower jumpers well into the next phases. If you train jumpers and guide them along until they get their A and then leave them out to dry after that, OF COURSE the sport will suck to them. Anyone interested in boosting the sport of skydiving should be more actively involved in participation and mentoring of new jumpers past their 100th jump.

Thats just my opinion of course.

You think you understand the situation, but what you don't understand, is that the situation just changed.

[JerryBaumchen 1,466]

My 2 cents:

I think the high A's and not going farther are because about that time you are no longer wanting to rent gear. It is now time to upen up the wallet and fork over at least $2000+ for gear; and a lot more if you are considering new gear.

That is a big wakeup call for these folks.

Again, just my thoughts.

Jerry

[labrys 0]

Well... the people who went on to get B licences had to buy gear too, but those numbers seem pretty constant so it isn't really a question of why people are stopping at A as much as why overall membership numbers are dropping if overall license numbers are rising.

Think it through. If B, C, and D remain constant and A increases more than the others, then why is overall membership down?

Everyone seems to be scope-locking on why people stop at A.

Owned by Remi #?