looking for statistics

[Andy9o8 2]

All right, you want a statistic? There are about 3 million sport skydives made in the US every year. Assuming that most of the people who make those jumps are more or less sane adults who understand their activity, that means that around 3 million times a year a sane adult, understanding what he/she is doing, deems the making of a skydive to be an acceptable risk.

It also means that if making a sport skydive was in fact a monstrously risky act most of the time - such that the risk could not possibly be deemed "acceptable" by any sane person - that fact would be known by now (60 years after the sport began), and it would not be engaged in by sane adults some 3 million times per year.

That being said, I still wouldn't waste your time trying to impress this logic on your father. Chances are, he couldn't possibly care less what thousands of other people do. Other people are not his child. All he cares about is his instinct, one all parents have, to do or say anything necessary to keep his child safe enough, for long enough, to outlive him.

[BIGUN 1,488]

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But you cannot seriously say that jumpers have no more control on the outcome of a skydive compared to rolling a pair of dices.

Sure, I can. (in fact, I think I did). In fact, you supported my comparison by assigning a scale of probability to it. Let's turn this around. Are you willing to walk up to any skydver and say there's a 100% probability of walking away from the next jump?

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Yourself (Bigun) recently considered that 145 jumps and 2.45 wing loading is probably madness.

Well, THANK YOU VERY MUCH for throwing that in my face. However, now we're getting into multiplication law. Difference between rolling one die to get a six and rolling nine dice to get a six. The probability of one of those nine dice rolling a six on a single roll is much greater than rolling a six on a single roll of one die. Mr. 2.45 wasn't just rolling a die, he had a handful of dice. We both agree that it can be used for risk mitigation.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled viewing - is it possible to roll a six on the first roll of a single die? What I was trying to communicate to the original poster was... It would be irresponsbile of us to imply that comparative statistics is an argument for or against making a skydive. I mean.... we do have to drive to the DZ, don't we?

Oh yeah, one more thing....

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Someone with no training at all wouldn't survive a skydive at the first place.

The probability of this having happened is 100%.
I hope we get a chance to meet, jump and drink some beer someday.

EDIT: Oh wait, you're French... we'll drink wine.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[Gali109 0]

yep, looks like we have a miscommunication here! well, I agree with you that this discussion is not going to help convince his dad. I also agree that statistics is not an input people uses when they decide to skydive. There is also never a 100% guarantee that any jumper will survive a skydive, no matter what the experience and conditions. But I never said that. The only point I'm trying to make is that unlike dices, there are more parameters and some you can control. For dices, once you set the # of dices and the # times you throw them, that's it. Your chances to get a 6 is set, no matter what else you do (no experience or human factor). I just don't want new jumpers to believe that their actions and decisions have no consequences on the risk they take, but most importantly the risks they add for others. But that is so obvious that we all already know that. Definitely a discussion I'd like to continue around a beer if we get a chance.

Laurent - www.RhythmSkydiving.com

[BIGUN 1,488]

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I just don't want new jumpers to believe that their actions and decisions have no consequences on the risk they take

EXACTLY! Especially based on erroneous statistics.

Have a good night.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[Andy9o8 2]

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dices

Never, ever say that again.

[BIGUN 1,488]

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USPA has about 30,000 members.

There are about 30 fatalities a year.

So your chances of death are probably about 1 in 1000 from skydiving itself.

Ah, but here's another way to look at it: statistical risk of death on any given jump. I was under the impression that, in the US, there are roughly 3 million sport skydives made per year, and roughly 30-ish fatalities per year. So that would mean that on any given skydive made in the US, the statistical chance of death would be about 1 in 95,000, give or take. Big difference from 1 in 1,000.

See, you're right and he's right. In this discussion, your chances of being one of the members who experiences death is 1:1000; whereas, the probability of dying on any given skydive is 1:95,000.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[chuckakers 426]

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was wondering if anyone knew where I can find statistics on skydiving injuries/deaths.

Fact: 100% of the people that don't die skydiving, die some other way. And that would be a terrible way to go.

Chuck Akers
D-10855
Houston, TX

[nigel99 620]

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See, you're right and he's right. In this discussion, your chances of being one of the members who experiences death is 1:1000; whereas, the probability of dying on any given skydive is 1:95,000.

Is it possible to statistically separate the chances once you take the into acount a persons individual risk profile? Logically speaking a swooper must be n times more likely to die than a conservative person who jumps a larger canopy.

I believe that fatalities per thousand have remained aproximately constant for a long period but that while 30 years ago it was gear related, but the advent of mature parafoil designs, the widespread use of Cypress etc now mean the bulk of fatalities are human error rather than random failure - is that true?

Has anyone ever spent time working out the relative risks of each discipline? I would have thought that this would be quite interesting. Intuitively swooping seems the most dangerous form of modern skydiving - but how would the following rank:
- Tandem Masters
- AFF Instructors
- Camera
- Freeflying
- Big RW formations
- Wing suits
- CRW etc

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[BIGUN 1,488]

I don't "think" so... Get on it.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.