World Economy and Politics

[wmw999 2,589]

My son sent me this; a free link to an article in The Atlantic about uproars in the economy and the effect on the world order as well as the US

Economy resets and epochal change

Wendy P. 

[JerryBaumchen 1,468]

2 hours ago, wmw999 said:

My son sent me this; a free link to an article in The Atlantic about uproars in the economy and the effect on the world order as well as the US

Economy resets and epochal change

Wendy P. 

Hi Wendy,

An interesting read.  However, I think it is a little too early to run around hollering that the sky is falling.  Trump 2.0 has only been in office for less than six months.  Additionally, Trump is not a healthy person; I would not be surprised if he could not finish out his term in office.

A LOT depends upon the results of the elections next Nov.  If the GOP loses either the House or Senate, things would probably change substantially.

As for this from your link:   but robots will be the main producers, not working-class men on an assembly line. 

For many yrs now, I have been saying that every day, all over the world, people are working on developing machinery to replace manual labor.

IMO that is not going to stop.

The world does not need the amount of manual labor people that is available.  IMO this is going to be the real problem in the near future; the next 50 yrs or so.

As regards the future of the opposition [ the Democratic Party ], I would refer anyone to the excellent, recent posts of Joe Weber on getting rid of the old guard & installing some true mud-begotten fighters.

Thanks for bringing this article to our attention; I have sent it on to my 20-yr old grandson.

Jerry Baumchen

 

Edited June 30 by JerryBaumchen

[wmw999 2,589]

I think what he's saying is that Trump is a symptom of the sky falling, not the cause. While it doesn't necessarily have to fall, the forces that make people look up are real, and worth considering by the (as he called it) Democratic gerontocracy. Consider how popular Bernie was with a decent number of people who subsequently voted for Trump. Maybe we need to take a page from that book, and ask for his advice, maybe even tell him he'll be an official elder statesman with real advice power.

The late 1890's to the 1930's were a serious populist era, and people are painting parallels with this one. That, too, might be worth thinking about.

Wendy P.

[JoeWeber 2,941]

15 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

My son sent me this; a free link to an article in The Atlantic about uproars in the economy and the effect on the world order as well as the US

Economy resets and epochal change

Wendy P. 

Great piece, at least for me, as a reminder of how we got to today. It is very well written, accurate, and is pleasingly intellectual. So, it won't be much of a surprise that I disagree with the conclusion and it's form, in part:

"To develop an alternative to the regressive modernization underpinning Trump’s reelection, the left must come up with a governing economic idea that can compete. Technocratic fixes of the old system look very unlikely to inspire a broad-enough coalition to defeat the potent, if unstable, electoral alliance that reelected Trump. The most promising avenue—one that could address the needs of millions of Americans who feel shut out of growth and prosperity and alienated from America’s governing elite—might be a fusion of AOC/Bernie populism with a more political, less technocratic version of abundance."

Those soaring conclusions, especially the last sentence, are hogwash. It is exactly the crap that won't resonate with any voter that we need to turn. The term, "fusion of AOC/Bernie populism" are words exquisitely designed to turn away any voter in dire need of the "fusion of AOC/Bernie populism". That, telling voters what they truly need, is exactly what we don't need. Sure, we need AOC and Bernie in the rear guard, but not in the discussions about who will lead us into the future or why.

[BIGUN 1,488]

3 hours ago, wmw999 said:

about uproars in the economy and the effect on the world order as well as the US

That is one of the best articles I've read in awhile. I agree with Joe on the AOC/Bernie fusion. For me; they make good talking points, but their following is more one of detractors than the focus needed. 

"The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson, which proposes a progressive political program based on lower-regulation, pro-growth policies as a spark for renewed economic growth." This in my opinion should be the focus.   

[wmw999 2,589]

I agree their following isn’t the core, but their appeal should be studied, and middle issues worked in a similar way.

One of the things I like about it is that it doesn’t purport to be the answer, just a thought approach to check for usefulness  

Wendy P. 

[kallend 2,150]

4 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Wendy,

An interesting read.  However, I think it is a little too early to run around hollering that the sky is falling.  Trump 2.0 has only been in office for less than six months.  Additionally, Trump is not a healthy person; I would not be surprised if he could not finish out his term in office.

A LOT depends upon the results of the elections next Nov.  If the GOP loses either the House or Senate, things would probably change substantially.

As for this from your link:   but robots will be the main producers, not working-class men on an assembly line. 

For many yrs now, I have been saying that every day, all over the world, people are working on developing machinery to replace manual labor.

 

 

I don't see robots replacing plumbers, car mechanics  or carpenters any time soon.

I see middle and lower management, white and pink collar jobs, disappearing really fast

[JoeWeber 2,941]

Just now, kallend said:

I don't see robots replacing plumbers, car mechanics  or carpenters any time soon.

I see middle and lower management, white and pink collar jobs, disappearing really fast

You're also not likely to see an actual plumber or carpenter anytime soon. Try calling one.

[JerryBaumchen 1,468]

1 hour ago, kallend said:

I don't see robots replacing plumbers, car mechanics  or carpenters any time soon.

I see middle and lower management, white and pink collar jobs, disappearing really fast

Hi John,

I do not disagree with you.

However, if you consider the labor-hours that it took to plumb a new house in 1950 compared to today, I am very sure that you will easily see that it takes about 25% of the labor-hours to do so.  This is because of continuing development of easy to use materials.  ABS & PEX come to mind.

I own two 2015 cars; one I bought new & the other 7 yrs ago.  Except for one needing new rear shocks & the other one needing a brake job, I have only spent money for consumable items in the entire time that I have owned them.  Today, due to technology advances, cars are a magnitude more reliable than what my dad drove in 1950.

Stick built houses will soon be a relic of the past.  There is more & more of a trend/demand to keep the costs of housing down.  I think the future will see more of a house built in a factory & then assembled on-site; various floor-plans to choose from.

All of these things have resulted in a lesser need for manual labor.  As I said:  The world does not need the amount of manual labor people that is available.

Jerry Baumchen

 

[nigel99 619]

Interesting article Wendy.

I think we’re at a pivotal moment in history and I agree Trump is just a chess piece rather than the central figure. US influence on the world is weakening and I think most countries are looking to diversify their alliances and trading away from the US. 

Unfortunately, I think it’s going to bring tough changes for the US, probably more than for the rest of us. I just hope the US doesn’t lash out militarily as a last gasp at holding onto their power and influence. 

[Phil1111 1,183]

17 hours ago, wmw999 said:

My son sent me this; a free link to an article in The Atlantic about uproars in the economy and the effect on the world order as well as the US

Economy resets and epochal change

Wendy P. 

Thanks for that. The Atlantic has great writers.

15 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

...As for this from your link:   but robots will be the main producers, not working-class men on an assembly line. 

For many yrs now, I have been saying that every day, all over the world, people are working on developing machinery to replace manual labor.

IMO that is not going to stop.

The world does not need the amount of manual labor people that is available.  IMO this is going to be the real problem in the near future; the next 50 yrs or so....

Automation continues as does the growth in the service economy.

14 hours ago, wmw999 said:

I think what he's saying is that Trump is a symptom of the sky falling, not the cause. While it doesn't necessarily have to fall, the forces that make people look up are real, and worth considering by ...

Agree, revolutions in productivity always bring about populist solutions that seldom level the playing field, seldom contain the correct concise answers. At least immediately.

[Phil1111 1,183]

14 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Great piece, at least for me, as a reminder of how we got to today. It is very well written, accurate, and is pleasingly intellectual. So, it won't be much of a surprise that I disagree with the conclusion and it's form, in part:

"To develop an alternative to the regressive modernization underpinning Trump’s reelection, the left must come up with a governing economic idea that can compete. Technocratic fixes of the old system look very unlikely to inspire a broad-enough coalition to defeat the potent, if unstable, electoral alliance that reelected Trump. The most promising avenue—one that could address the needs of millions of Americans who feel shut out of growth and prosperity and alienated from America’s governing elite—might be a fusion of AOC/Bernie populism with a more political, less technocratic version of abundance."

Those soaring conclusions, especially the last sentence, are hogwash. It is exactly the crap that won't resonate with any voter that we need to turn. The term, "fusion of AOC/Bernie populism" are words exquisitely designed to turn away any voter in dire need of the "fusion of AOC/Bernie populism". That, telling voters what they truly need, is exactly what we don't need. Sure, we need AOC and Bernie in the rear guard, but not in the discussions about who will lead us into the future or why.

Agree, safeguards for the poor and working poor are necessary but the inherent power of capitalism is necessary. Together with the power from taxes to pay debts and pay for programs. 

14 hours ago, BIGUN said:

..."The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson, which proposes a progressive political program based on lower-regulation, pro-growth policies as a spark for renewed economic growth." This in my opinion should be the focus.   

Agree but not at the cost of the environment or reasonable protections for all.

10 hours ago, kallend said:

I don't see robots replacing plumbers, car mechanics  or carpenters any time soon.

I see middle and lower management, white and pink collar jobs, disappearing really fast

Agree big time and throw teachers in with that. 

Energy is a huge component in the economy and here is an excellent NYT companion article. There’s a Race to Power the Future. China Is Pulling Away.  "Beijing is selling clean energy to the world, Washington is pushing oil and gas. Both are driven by national security."

Currently US data centers consume 4.4% of all electrical demand. "According to new projections published by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in December, by 2028 more than half of the electricity going to data centers will be used for AI. At that point, AI alone could consume as much electricity annually as 22% of all US households."

[JoeWeber 2,941]

3 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Agree, safeguards for the poor and working poor are necessary but the inherent power of capitalism is necessary. Together with the power from taxes to pay debts and pay for programs. 

Agree but not at the cost of the environment or reasonable protections for all.

Agree big time and throw teachers in with that. 

Energy is a huge component in the economy and here is an excellent NYT companion article. There’s a Race to Power the Future. China Is Pulling Away.  "Beijing is selling clean energy to the world, Washington is pushing oil and gas. Both are driven by national security."

Currently US data centers consume 4.4% of all electrical demand. "According to new projections published by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in December, by 2028 more than half of the electricity going to data centers will be used for AI. At that point, AI alone could consume as much electricity annually as 22% of all US households."

Jesus Phil, can you reply to only one post at a time? 

[BIGUN 1,488]

On 7/1/2025 at 6:01 AM, Phil1111 said:

Agree but not at the cost of the environment or reasonable protections for all.

Morning, Phil. 

For me - pro-growth includes both of these. Lord Meynard Keynes taught FDR to keep money moving around - in all areas.  

[kallend 2,150]

On 7/3/2025 at 3:40 AM, BIGUN said:

Morning, Phil. 

For me - pro-growth includes both of these. Lord Meynard Keynes taught FDR to keep money moving around - in all areas.  

Pity Wilson didn't listen to Keynes in 1919.  Might have resulted in a very different Germany in the 1930s.

[Phil1111 1,183]

On 7/3/2025 at 2:40 AM, BIGUN said:

Morning, Phil. 

For me - pro-growth includes both of these. Lord Meynard Keynes taught FDR to keep money moving around - in all areas.  

Give credit where credit is due, no pun intended. Trump has been president for 167 days and in the last 115 a trillion has been added to the national debt.