The precedents you set

[gowlerk 2,253]

56 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

And nope, the lockdown was probably not worth it.

If you worked in one of the over run hospital ICUs who managed to save many lives at the absolute edge of their capacity during the peak, with all elective surgeries cancelled and all available resources being used you may think the lockdown and "bending the curve" was worth it. In the perfect 20/20 vision of hindsight it may have gone on longer than needed in some places.

Edited April 28 by gowlerk

[BIGUN 1,424]

1 hour ago, wmw999 said:

And nope, the lockdown was probably not worth it.

Excellent paper. Thank you. 

WHO now estimates the death count was under-reported and was closer to 3 million. I still think the lockdowns were a good idea given that we didn't know what we were dealing with and really had no plan, so decisons at that instance in time had to be made. 

In the military, there is a "Stand-Down." Everybody stop what you're doing, assess what's going on, and present ideas - basically, hit the stop button. Then, reboot. 

Politicizing it - no bueno. 

[JoeWeber 2,836]

47 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

If you worked in one of the over run hospital ICUs who managed to save many lives at the absolute edge of their capacity during the peak, with all elective surgeries cancelled and all available resources being used you may think the lockdown and "bending the curve" was worth it. In the perfect 20/20 vision of hindsight it may have gone on longer than needed in some places.

That's the thing, really, that I was thinking about. ICU, and just ER, space was at a premium, ventilators were in short supply etc, and so on. It was real and the prospect that it could totally get beyond any semblance of control was real. I have zero regrets that I was supportive of some restrictions I now believe were overdone because I fully believe those restrictions did save some lives and prevent some lives from being made permanently worse and so on as we've already discussed on these pages more than enough. None of which in any way, shape, or form, justifies the insensible and irrational over reaction in the opposite direction some here propose is the right course.

[JerryBaumchen 1,445]

1 hour ago, BIGUN said:

Excellent paper. Thank you. 

WHO now estimates the death count was under-reported and was closer to 3 million. I still think the lockdowns were a good idea given that we didn't know what we were dealing with and really had no plan, so decisons at that instance in time had to be made. 

In the military, there is a "Stand-Down." Everybody stop what you're doing, assess what's going on, and present ideas - basically, hit the stop button. Then, reboot. 

Politicizing it - no bueno. 

Hi Keith,

Agree 100%.  We were in a situation where no one had any memory of previous events.

Better to be safe than sorry.

Jerry Baumchen

[billvon 3,079]

8 hours ago, base698 said:

Because they arrested people outside at the beach and shutdown businesses.

Yep.  Which would only be justified if they were looking at a pandemic that might kill millions of Americans.

It's like a pilot who follows every step of the QRH during an emergency.  Is every step needed?  Usually not.  Might that list change in the future?  Definitely.  But following every step gives you the best possible chance of landing the aircraft safely, given the knowledge at the time.  Indeed, NOT doing that would be irresponsible, even if some actions (like dumping fuel) might harm other people.

I, for one, would never decide that it's worth risking (say) 100 lives to keep a business open.

[JoeWeber 2,836]

22 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yep.  Which would only be justified if they were looking at a pandemic that might kill millions of Americans.

It's like a pilot who follows every step of the QRH during an emergency.  Is every step needed?  Usually not.  Might that list change in the future?  Definitely.  But following every step gives you the best possible chance of landing the aircraft safely, given the knowledge at the time.  Indeed, NOT doing that would be irresponsible, even if some actions (like dumping fuel) might harm other people.

I, for one, would never decide that it's worth risking (say) 100 lives to keep a business open.

The glaring truth that base698, and others who believe the same, ignore is that we who supported restrictions-even with some degree of doubt-did it not for ourselves but for our fellow citizens. They, invariably as base698 has again made evident, take their exceptions because they personally were in some way limited. Sadly, that exact psychology is on open display again with their support of Trumps policies that limit or harm their fellow human beings. 

[BIGUN 1,424]

2 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

The glaring truth that base698, and others who believe the same, ignore is that we who supported restrictions-even with some degree of doubt-did it not for ourselves but for our fellow citizens.

Pure eloquence. 

[base698 20]

13 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

They, invariably as base698 has again made evident, take their exceptions because they personally were in some way limited

I was not arrested and didn't lose my job or my house, but I knew people that did.  I lost coffee shops and restaurants I enjoyed but the people that work there or owned the businesses lost homes and livelihoods..  

 

[base698 20]

18 hours ago, BIGUN said:

It was Base's fault. Him and those like him failed to adhere to a shutdown

I, being a remote worker and able to afford everything delivered, could easily adhere to the lockdown.  The front line minimum wage people and their children you sacrificed could not.

There are plenty of places (Sweden) that appear to have done better than the hardest lockdown states when you look at age adjusted death rate. However, optimizing for a signal metric though is short-sighted.  Skydivers ought to know quality of life and fun are worthy sacrifices to scary death rates but it's been so long most of us jumped I guess you all forgot it.

Look, Mississippi is now doing better in education than California:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/what-happened-to-naep-scores?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true

 

Edited April 29 by base698

[wmw999 2,547]

1 hour ago, base698 said:

Look, Mississippi is now doing better in education than California:

 

And Massachusetts is doing way better. It's pretty blue in Massachusetts. We're mostly all vaccinated, too.

Wendy P.

[BIGUN 1,424]

1 hour ago, base698 said:

There are plenty of places (Sweden) that appear to have done better than the hardest lockdown states when you look at age adjusted death rate.

Tell us what happened in Sweden in 2021. 

 

1 hour ago, base698 said:

Mississippi is now doing better in education than California:

Nope. The map reflects a change in fourth graders; not a ranking. Mississippi is still in the lowest for overall education (39th)

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/public-school-rankings-by-state

Edited April 29 by BIGUN

[gowlerk 2,253]

2 hours ago, base698 said:

I was not arrested and didn't lose my job or my house, but I knew people that did.  I lost coffee shops and restaurants I enjoyed but the people that work there or owned the businesses lost homes and livelihoods..  

 

I knew people who lost their lives. On the other hand my wife made a good amount of extra money working overtime in ICU. And trucking was good.

Edited April 29 by gowlerk

[normiss 858]

3 hours ago, base698 said:

I was not arrested and didn't lose my job or my house, but I knew people that did.  I lost coffee shops and restaurants I enjoyed but the people that work there or owned the businesses lost homes and livelihoods..  

 

I had friends, neighbors, and coworkers lose their lives. Hardcore anti-vax to the end!

Idiots.

[BIGUN 1,424]

6 hours ago, base698 said:

I was not arrested and didn't lose my job or my house, but I knew people that did.  I lost coffee shops and restaurants I enjoyed but the people that work there or owned the businesses lost homes and livelihoods..  

 

You just made Joe's point. Perhaps it's time to change the subject. 

[JoeWeber 2,836]

8 hours ago, base698 said:

I was not arrested and didn't lose my job or my house, but I knew people that did.  I lost coffee shops and restaurants I enjoyed but the people that work there or owned the businesses lost homes and livelihoods..  

 

You won't get this either but I appreciate your efforts here.

[billvon 3,079]

8 hours ago, base698 said:

I was not arrested and didn't lose my job or my house, but I knew people that did.  I lost coffee shops and restaurants I enjoyed but the people that work there or owned the businesses lost homes and livelihoods..  

Yep.  Here I can think of two chains that failed - Souplantation and California Pizza Kitchen.  I also know two people who died from COVID, namely Art Bori (skydiver from the NW) and Robert, old family friend.

I am very glad more people did not die.  I feel less bad about the companies that failed.  Putting tens of millions of people out of work to save a million from death seems like a good tradeoff to me.  People can always get another job.  (And did.)

[JoeWeber 2,836]

13 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yep.  Here I can think of two chains that failed - Souplantation and California Pizza Kitchen.  I also know two people who died from COVID, namely Art Bori (skydiver from the NW) and Robert, old family friend.

I am very glad more people did not die.  I feel less bad about the companies that failed.  Putting tens of millions of people out of work to save a million from death seems like a good tradeoff to me.  People can always get another job.  (And did.)

And even if the trade off would have never been a million lives, in retrospect which is the rights entire position besides personal inconvenience, it was not irrational to believe, based on information then in hand, that it was a legitimate feature of humanity to concern ourselves with crowded ICU's, a shortage of ventilators, the lives of kids and old folks, and so on. Besides, there are always bright spots if you look a little. I for one will never lose the joy I felt the first time I was wearing a hoody and a mask and walked without concern into a bank.