Dude, where are my hurricanes?

[brenthutch 444]

On 9/6/2022 at 4:03 AM, olofscience said:

To avoid moving goalposts (too frequently, he still does them lots), Brent's "range of natural variability" includes the biggest extremes in the past several million years.

Slim King's "range of natural variability" includes numbers that he thinks are small.

What is your “range of natural variability”.

[olofscience 492]

8 hours ago, brenthutch said:

What is your “range of natural variability”.

Step 1: measure global temperatures in the pre-industrial period (say, 1700-1850ish)

Step 2: average them per time point

Step 3: for each data point, find the distance from the mean

Step 4: get the variance of the data set.

Step 5: get the square root of the variance - this is the standard deviation.

 

I'd say the "range of natural variability" would be 2 standard deviations to cover 95% cumulative probability.

[billvon 3,107]

53 minutes ago, olofscience said:

I'd say the "range of natural variability" would be 2 standard deviations to cover 95% cumulative probability.

No fair with the math.  Next thing you know you'll be using actual instrumental temperature records and comparing them to IPCC predictions, and that's just hitting below the belt.  Why can't you just find a meme about Al Gore and post it?

[JoeWeber 2,934]

1 hour ago, olofscience said:

Step 1: measure global temperatures in the pre-industrial period (say, 1700-1850ish)

Step 2: average them per time point

Step 3: for each data point, find the distance from the mean

Step 4: get the variance of the data set.

Step 5: get the square root of the variance - this is the standard deviation.

 

I'd say the "range of natural variability" would be 2 standard deviations to cover 95% cumulative probability.

I just knew you'd do that again. Don't be getting all particular, as you've been apprised here frequently, climate science isn't the same for everyone everywhere. Sort of, we're all climate scientists and get to choose our own data, time frames, and feelings. Make sense? For example, and I'll go slow for you, the Earth has been a cohesive ball of cosmic goobers for around 4.5 Billion years - I'm not complaining. And indisputably, unless you're Deepak Chopra, we're each and all here on that ball each counting the days in different ways. Make sense?

[billvon 3,107]

Quote

Dude, where are my hurricanes?

====================

At 11 a.m. Wednesday, Earl was 460 miles south of Bermuda, traveling north at 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

The storm is forecast to pick up speed and become a major hurricane, meaning Category 3 or higher, on Thursday. Category 3 hurricanes have sustained winds of 111 mph to 129 mph and can cause devastating damage.

====================

A strengthening hurricane tracking up Mexico’s Pacific Coast will affect Southern California’s weather by the weekend – all while delivering punishing rains and high winds to the Mexican coast through Friday.

=====================

I believe the next hurricane will officially be renamed "crow" in honor of the usual cadre of doubters.

[JoeWeber 2,934]

4 minutes ago, billvon said:

====================

At 11 a.m. Wednesday, Earl was 460 miles south of Bermuda, traveling north at 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

The storm is forecast to pick up speed and become a major hurricane, meaning Category 3 or higher, on Thursday. Category 3 hurricanes have sustained winds of 111 mph to 129 mph and can cause devastating damage.

====================

A strengthening hurricane tracking up Mexico’s Pacific Coast will affect Southern California’s weather by the weekend – all while delivering punishing rains and high winds to the Mexican coast through Friday.

=====================

I believe the next hurricane will officially be renamed "crow" in honor of the usual cadre of doubters.

Umm.. Er... But they haven't hit Biloxi so they don't count!

[billvon 3,107]

Quote

But they haven't hit Biloxi so they don't count!

A Sharpie will fix that little problem in no time at all.

[gowlerk 2,273]

1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

Umm.. Er... But they haven't hit Biloxi so they don't count!

 

Edit, billvon beat me.

Edited September 8, 2022 by gowlerk

[lippy 918]

57 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

billvon beat me.

Damn! I just got a warning!

[Phil1111 1,172]

11 hours ago, gowlerk said:

...billvon beat me.

The beatings will continue until the dialogue improves.

[kallend 2,146]

On 9/7/2022 at 6:14 PM, billvon said:

No fair with the math.  Next thing you know you'll be using actual instrumental temperature records and comparing them to IPCC predictions, and that's just hitting below the belt.  Why can't you just find a meme about Al Gore and post it?

Not forgetting to include a reference to Hunter's laptop.

[kallend 2,146]

I just got back from 2 weeks in Alaska, from the interior to the Aleutians. 

Despite being a clearly conservative/libertarian state, I didn't meet a single Alaskan who was a climate change denier - basically because they can all see it going on around them, from glacier retreat (some as much as 2 miles in the past 20 years)  to melting permafrost causing serious infrastructure damage.

[kallend 2,146]

Strongest storm in decades set to barrel into Alaska

 

From WaPo 9/16/22

As the powerhouse system approaches Alaska late Friday, roaring south-to-southwesterly winds will slam the state’s west coast. Massive amounts of water, shoved north by the high winds, will slosh ashore, raising the ocean as much as a dozen feet and battering vulnerable coastal communities with severe erosion. The storm will probably stall just offshore the Seward Peninsula over the weekend, continuing to push the Pacific toward Alaska’s vulnerable coastline.

...

 

The report adds that coastal erosion rates have been hastening, with some spots on the coastline losing up to 100 feet of land to the sea each year.

. . .

Longer sea ice-free seasons, higher ground temperatures, and relative sea level rise are expected to worsen flooding and accelerate erosion in many regions, leading to the loss of terrestrial habitat and cultural resources, and requiring entire communities, such as Kivalina in northwestern Alaska, to relocate to safer terrain.

The powerful weather system set to blast Alaska is, atmospherically, something of a perfect storm. The remnants of Merbok, once a Category 1-intensity Pacific typhoon, will merge with a pair of nontropical storms as it veers toward the Bering Strait, the thin strip of water between Russia and Alaska.

[lippy 918]

6 hours ago, kallend said:

Strongest storm in decades set to barrel into Alaska

 

From WaPo 9/16/22

As the powerhouse system approaches Alaska late Friday, roaring south-to-southwesterly winds will slam the state’s west coast. Massive amounts of water, shoved north by the high winds, will slosh ashore, raising the ocean as much as a dozen feet and battering vulnerable coastal communities with severe erosion. The storm will probably stall just offshore the Seward Peninsula over the weekend, continuing to push the Pacific toward Alaska’s vulnerable coastline.

...

 

The report adds that coastal erosion rates have been hastening, with some spots on the coastline losing up to 100 feet of land to the sea each year.

. . .

Longer sea ice-free seasons, higher ground temperatures, and relative sea level rise are expected to worsen flooding and accelerate erosion in many regions, leading to the loss of terrestrial habitat and cultural resources, and requiring entire communities, such as Kivalina in northwestern Alaska, to relocate to safer terrain.

The powerful weather system set to blast Alaska is, atmospherically, something of a perfect storm. The remnants of Merbok, once a Category 1-intensity Pacific typhoon, will merge with a pair of nontropical storms as it veers toward the Bering Strait, the thin strip of water between Russia and Alaska.

Yeah, but Bourbon St. hasn’t yet flooded this year so climate change doesn’t really exist. 

[murps2000 86]

45 minutes ago, lippy said:

Yeah, but Bourbon St. hasn’t yet flooded this year so climate change doesn’t really exist. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna46746
 

That’s not how insurance companies down there see things.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

11 hours ago, murps2000 said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna46746
 

That’s not how insurance companies down there see things.

Yeah. That's one of the strongest arguments that AGW is real.

Insurance companies are in it for the profit.

They're going to charge the lowest rates they can profit off of to be competitive (look at all the commercials).
If they are ALL jacking up rates, or even abandoning certain areas, it's because they are paying out a LOT of money in claims.

[JoeWeber 2,934]

2 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Yeah. That's one of the strongest arguments that AGW is real.

Insurance companies are in it for the profit.

They're going to charge the lowest rates they can profit off of to be competitive (look at all the commercials).
If they are ALL jacking up rates, or even abandoning certain areas, it's because they are paying out a LOT of money in claims.

Hysteria is also profitable. That's not an argument against AGW, just a fact.

[billvon 3,107]

Dude here's _another_ hurricane!

From the National Hurricane Center:

Hurricane Fiona may produce  12 to 18 inches with a local maximum of 30 inches in Puerto Rico, particularly across the eastern and southern portions of the island. These rainfall amounts will produce catastrophic life-threatening flash floods and urban flooding.
 

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

Dude here's _another_ hurricane!

From the National Hurricane Center:

Hurricane Fiona may produce  12 to 18 inches with a local maximum of 30 inches in Puerto Rico, particularly across the eastern and southern portions of the island. These rainfall amounts will produce catastrophic life-threatening flash floods and urban flooding.
 

On the plus side, Trump no longer in office means that he can't block aid to Puerto Rico after it gets hit.

On the minus side, he won't be able to go and toss rolls of paper towels to the crowd.

[lippy 918]

2 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

On the plus side, Trump no longer in office means that he can't block aid to Puerto Rico after it gets hit.

On the minus side, he won't be able to go and toss rolls of paper towels to the crowd.

Just had to go pull this off the bookshelf

[JoeWeber 2,934]

I'm assuming Brent is away on his annual sojourn to Grenada.

[JoeWeber 2,934]

On 9/20/2022 at 10:13 PM, JoeWeber said:

I'm assuming Brent is away on his annual sojourn to Grenada.

Hmm.. Things are unheating up in the Carib.

[jerryzflies 0]

On 9/21/2022 at 12:13 AM, JoeWeber said:

I'm assuming Brent is away on his annual sojourn to Grenada.

 

Lost his Sharpie?

[JoeWeber 2,934]

Ian is the second spinner in the lower latitudes this season. Probably no indicator of anything.

[billvon 3,107]

And this one dude!

==================

Tropical Storm Ian forecast to reach Category 4 strength as it tracks toward Florida

Tropical Storm Ian, the ninth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to reach up to Category 4 hurricane strength before hitting Florida next week. If it does, it will be the first major hurricane to impact the state since 2018.

Ian was located about 255 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, as of 6 p.m. Saturday and moving west at 16 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. “Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days,” the center said.

The forecast shows Ian “as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf when it is approaching the west coast of Florida,” after briefly passing over Cuba at or near major hurricane strength, the center said Friday. The entire Florida panhandle and nearly the entire western coast of the state could be at risk, according to the most recent forecast cone from the hurricane center.

==================

This thread reminds me of the "there's only one problem with global warming - it ended in 1998!" thread.