A Model Failure

[billvon 3,108]

1 hour ago, metalslug said:

How does that value compare to global population growth over the same period? 

No comparison.  Population growth exceeds climate change deaths by a factor of over 10.

Hopefully you are not suggesting that it is only worth preventing something if it kills more than 83 million people a year.  I mean, if that's the metric you use, then cancer, heart disease, COVID, the Holocaust, the invasion of Ukraine etc are even less important to stop.

[billvon 3,108]

1 hour ago, metalslug said:

'shift' or 'extend' ?  Is there a reason they cannot continue agriculture in the present southern locations?

Droughts, temperatures too high for crops to survive, and loss of pollinators would be three reasons.

[jakee 1,594]

6 hours ago, metalslug said:

It would be great if we could have reliably similar forecasting today in the mainstream media instead of the kind of forecasts that bring impressionable children and nutters to tears of despair over their own imminent doom in their lifetime.  

Like the kind of impressionable children who are brought to despair by the media’s coverage of cancel culture until they realise they don’t actually know what cancel culture is?

[metalslug 36]

16 minutes ago, billvon said:

No comparison.  Population growth exceeds climate change deaths by a factor of over 10.

Then it's conceivable to you that an increase in 'climate change' deaths is actually not an increase, as a relative percentage to population growth. In absolute values there's been an increase in pretty much every cause of death over the same period, notwithstanding that 'climate change deaths being largely spitballed values with regard to determining direct or indirect cause of death. 

[metalslug 36]

30 minutes ago, jakee said:

Like the kind of impressionable children who are brought to despair by the media’s coverage of cancel culture until they realise they don’t actually know what cancel culture is?

This from the guy who was asking how a public figure can be cancelled by one person? As noted in that thread even yourself and bill had different perceptions of cancel culture, as did I. There was a lot of that going around.

[jakee 1,594]

4 minutes ago, metalslug said:

This from the guy who was asking how a public figure can be cancelled by one person? 

Yes, the question that lead to you realising you had no idea what cancel culture was despite having been lead by the nose into railing against it. What of it? 

[billvon 3,108]

30 minutes ago, metalslug said:

Then it's conceivable to you that an increase in 'climate change' deaths is actually not an increase, as a relative percentage to population growth.

Population growth has been fairly steady over the past 30 years as a percentage of population.  Deaths due to climate change have not been.  So no, it is still an increase.

[Phil1111 1,172]

2 hours ago, GeorgiaDon said:

I don't really understand the perspective that says that changing our energy economy is too much bother, and we will probably be OK for my lifetime, so we'll just carry on and hope people 100 years from now can work it out.  If not, it's not my problem.

Just ask Brent! and his Facebook friends.

2 hours ago, GeorgiaDon said:

Crops are limited by temperature (both high and low), soil moisture, day length, duration of the growing season, etc.  For example, the upper limit for wheat is about 35 degrees C.  ...

Killing crops and killing people. Heat kills. lancet

"Increased exposure to extreme heat is having deadly consequences for adults over 65. Heat-related illnesses caused an estimated 345,000 deaths in 2019, a new record. And, the annual number of heat-related deaths among older adults has increased dramatically in every region since 2005. (See the graph below.)"

[brenthutch 444]

3 hours ago, billvon said:

Actual study:

===============================
World's largest study of global climate related mortality links 5 million deaths a year to abnormal temperatures

08 July 2021

More than five million extra deaths a year can be attributed to abnormal hot and cold temperatures, according to a world first international study led by Monash University.

The study found deaths related to hot temperatures increased in all regions from 2000 to 2019, indicating that global warming due to climate change will make this mortality figure worse in the future.

=========================================================================================

So global warming kills more from cold than it does from heat.   We can only hope the planet continues to warm in orders to reduce deaths from cold, at least until they no longer exceed deaths from heat.

[billvon 3,108]

1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

Just ask Brent! and his Facebook friends.

Killing crops and killing people. Heat kills. lancet

Yeah, but they are killing Africans and Chinese more than Americans, so - winning!

[SkyDekker 1,465]

34 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yeah, but they are killing Africans and Chinese more than Americans, so - winning!

Plus the earth's population is still growing, so by Brent's logic that means heat or cold cannot be killing people.

[gowlerk 2,273]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

Yeah, but they are killing Africans and Chinese more than Americans, so - winning!

And mostly older no longer productive ones. Bring on the heat. Covid lowered the average age, but more could be done still.