Ukraine

[JoeWeber 2,941]

2 minutes ago, ryoder said:

I've been reading recently that Putin is leaning hard Lukashenko to get Belarus fully involved in the "special military operation". But there is enough unhappiness with Lukashenko in Belarus, that to do so would likely see him ousted from power.

So the options are say "No" to Putin and get tossed out a window by Putin's goons, or say "Yes" to Putin and get tossed out a window by his own people.

Hit them. Now the time is right. They've already earned the pain. Let's deny the Russians a pincer movement while the price is cheap.

[murps2000 86]

58 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Hit them. Now the time is right. They've already earned the pain. Let's deny the Russians a pincer movement while the price is cheap.

If Belarusian troops cross the border they will feel some pain. I can’t imagine they would be any better supported logistically than Russian troops if they made that move. I’m pretty sure the Ukrainians are aware of any threat from the north and are prepared to repel it. For now the majority of Russian ground efforts seem to be centered around Bakhmut. It’s not entirely clear why they are focused on that area. At any rate, the ground in Ukraine will soon freeze and allow mechanized movement. I expect we’ll see some changes in battle lines after that.

[gowlerk 2,277]

1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

Hit them. Now the time is right. They've already earned the pain. Let's deny the Russians a pincer movement while the price is cheap.

Hit them? Who and how? Do you think NATO should attack or the Ukrainians? Attacking Belarus would mean attacking Russian forces.

[JoeWeber 2,941]

13 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Hit them? Who and how? Do you think NATO should attack or the Ukrainians? Attacking Belarus would mean attacking Russian forces.

Relax, sugar doodle. Remember, not a care in the world, no need to have ambition, lucky to live in a nation that can afford you in your old age because your southern neighbors always pick up the check? Yes, it's the internet where all comers are welcome. Still, one should recall their previous positions before making demands. No matter, the who is Ukraine with American arms. Yes, Russians in Belarus might die but so what? And you can just relax knowing that the rest of the world has your back.

 

[gowlerk 2,277]

10 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

No matter, the who is Ukraine with American arms. Yes, Russians in Belarus might die but so what? And you can just relax knowing that the rest of the world has your back.

That is the only reasonable plan, even if it is unrealistic. Ukraine is already stretched pretty thin. The Russian posturing in Belarus is likely aimed at keeping Ukraine occupied on another intensive front. It is not in a posistion to invade Belarus and even with the mighty Arms of America that have been shared with it could only launch nuisance attacks. If Ukraine was capable of attacking Russian posistion in Belarus it would also be capable of attacking them in Russia, which is what I favour. However so far they are only barely able to attack them in some of the Russian occupied areas of their own territories. 

 

10 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Remember, not a care in the world, no need to have ambition, lucky to live in a nation that can afford you in your old age because your southern neighbors always pick up the check?

When are you ever going to do something about your insane and unsustainable levels of national debt supported by China and the rest of the world?

[JoeWeber 2,941]

1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

When are you ever going to do something about your insane and unsustainable levels of national debt supported by China and the rest of the world?

Maybe when someone explains why it's such a problem for you. After all, and you should know better than most because you make a living from it, our economy is booming and there are always loads to haul.

[gowlerk 2,277]

Just now, JoeWeber said:

our economy is booming and there are always loads to haul.

Yes, I generally haul raw materials south and finished goods back. 

 

2 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Maybe when someone explains why it's such a problem for you

Not a problem for me at all. It may become one for you though. But don't worry, Canada will cover your back door for you even when you run out of credit to keep your bullet making machines running.

[Phil1111 1,183]

The Russian military is nothing but a Potemkin village i.e. a facade. According to this NYT story on the invasion, Putin, corruption and how the rot of Russia rues the military.

[ryoder 1,590]

Old news: Russia v Ukraine

New news: Russia v Belarus ?

Russian and Belarus troops on brink of civil war as tensions explode over ethnic insults

[Phil1111 1,183]

42 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Old news: Russia v Ukraine

New news: Russia v Belarus ?

Russian and Belarus troops on brink of civil war as tensions explode over ethnic insults

Belarus still has somewhat free access to the internet. At the start of the Russian attack there was numerous instances of sabotage of Belarusian rail facilities near the Ukrainian border.By Belorussians. The use of Russian troops to quell dissent last year and prop up Lukashenko. Lukashenko giving Russia almost 1/2 of its tanks to replace Russian tanks abandoned to Ukraine on the battlefields.

Make the story most likely of Belorussians telling Russians that they are not going anywhere near the Ukrainian border. That these Russian troops upon recognizing their fates getting pissed off.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

One thing to remember is that many of the Russian conscripts are coming from the far East.
They are ethnic Asians, not Europeans.

Lots and lots of potential racial tension there. 

Add in the fact that the Russians are largely untrained and under-equipped, heading off to be cannon fodder, while the Belarussians are better trained, better equipped and may or may not be going to war, there's a lot of 'problem areas'.

[Phil1111 1,183]

3 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

..., while the Belarussians are better trained, better equipped and may or may not be going to war, there's a lot of 'problem areas'.

"the Belarusian army does not have the capacity turn the tide of the war in favour of Russia. Firstly, it is too small, with the most combat-ready segment not exceeding 15,000 troops. The remainder are about as efficient as Russia’s ragtag bunch of new conscripts. " Above from Putin’s last ally: Why the Belarusian army cannot help Russia in Ukraine

The story misses Putin's other ally. No not Slim King, I mean N. Korea. Putin could fill the trans-Siberian express train with N. Korean troops. Fatten them up on their journey to the Ukrainian front.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

1 minute ago, Phil1111 said:

...The story misses Putin's other ally. No not Slim King, I mean N. Korea. Putin could fill the trans-Siberian express train with N. Korean troops. Fatten them up on their journey to the Ukrainian front.

It might be a possibility, but not a likely one. 

North Korea is denying claims that they are supplying Russia with artillery shells. 

Russia denies any claims that North Korea offered troops.

North Korea has said they'd like to send construction workers to the Russian held areas to help rebuild (this was before Russia started suffering major losses). 

While North Korea was one of the very few nations to recognize Russia's 'annexation' of Ukrainian territory, I don't think they'd go as far as sending troops. 

Not yet anyway.

 

[Phil1111 1,183]

2 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

It might be a possibility, but not a likely one. ....
Not yet anyway.

 

In that case things are really getting tough. Even convicts are refusing to fight now

Family ‘horrified’ by video of sledgehammer killing of Wagner Group defector

"Family members of a former Russian prison inmate, who defected to Ukraine after being recruited by the Kremlin-linked private military group Wagner, have expressed “horror” over his apparent execution after a gruesome video emerged on Friday that showed him being repeatedly struck with a sledgehammer." He surrendered to Ukrainian troops. Then was freed in a prisoner exchange.

Hezbollah and IRGC troops perhaps? Nah even they are not that far down the Putin rabbit holes. Where is Slim King? He would know where the next batch of sunflower fertilizer is coming from.

The leader-owner of the Wagner group below.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Phil1111

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

32 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

In that case things are really getting tough. Even convicts are refusing to fight now

Family ‘horrified’ by video of sledgehammer killing of Wagner Group defector

"Family members of a former Russian prison inmate, who defected to Ukraine after being recruited by the Kremlin-linked private military group Wagner, have expressed “horror” over his apparent execution after a gruesome video emerged on Friday that showed him being repeatedly struck with a sledgehammer." He surrendered to Ukrainian troops. Then was freed in a prisoner exchange.

Hezbollah and IRGC troops perhaps? Nah even they are not that far down the Putin rabbit holes. Where is Slim King? He would know where the next batch of sunflower fertilizer is coming from.

The leader-owner of the Wagner group below.

Interesting story.

Dude had a long prison sentence for murder.

Wagner went around offering amnesty to anyone who'd sign up to fight.

Dude signed up, went to Ukraine and immediately surrendered. 
Said publicly that he'd fight for Ukraine against Russia.

Somehow or another, he got exchanged back to Russia.
Somehow not surprising. Murderers & traitors aren't super popular people, even among the folks they are 'defecting' to. 

So after he gets back home, the Wagner Group (not Russian authorities, apparently) put him against a brick wall and cave his skull in with a sledge hammer. 

Well, the Wagner Group isn't known for it's kindness or humanitarian actions.

[ryoder 1,590]

Please tell me they are making this up:

BBC: Ukraine: Russia to deploy musicians to front to boost morale

[gowlerk 2,277]

3 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Please tell me they are making this up:

BBC: Ukraine: Russia to deploy musicians to front to boost morale

Will they play Wagner pieces?

[ryoder 1,590]

1 minute ago, gowlerk said:

Will they play Wagner pieces?

Considering the success of the Russian army, perhaps "Yakety Sax".

[Phil1111 1,183]

8 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Will they play Wagner pieces?

For sure Wagner's The Rise Of The Valkyries   Moscow’s reliance on human wave tactics is a catastrophe for Russia’s working-age men

“The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops,” Does Russia have that many prisoners?

[riggerrob 643]

Insulting allies, raping, looting and pillaging recently "liberated" territories are all war crimes committed by poorly trained, poor disciplined and poorly led common soldiers/conscripts.

We wonder if a professional NATO army would commit the same atrocities.

[ryoder 1,590]

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Training Belarus Pilots To Fly Jets With ‘Special Warheads’

Lukashenko thanked Putin for handing over nuclear-capable Iskander short-range ballistic missiles and S-400 air defense systems.

"Oh, but I didn't order nukes fired into Ukraine; He did it!"

[normiss 897]

2 hours ago, ryoder said:

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Training Belarus Pilots To Fly Jets With ‘Special Warheads’

Lukashenko thanked Putin for handing over nuclear-capable Iskander short-range ballistic missiles and S-400 air defense systems.

"Oh, but I didn't order nukes fired into Ukraine; He did it!"

I hope the Patriot missile systems get there soon.

I still think this is going to turn historically horrid.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

23 hours ago, riggerrob said:

We wonder if a professional NATO army would commit the same atrocities.

Yes. Without a doubt there would be instances of it. How it would be dealt with would likely be different.

[Phil1111 1,183]

Russian 'Zombies' Repeatedly Attack Lines Around Bakhmut 

Russian tactics that are endlessly repeated. They say Russian soldiers advance, Ukrainian artillery destroys them, then more come the next day.

[JoeWeber 2,941]

8 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Russian 'Zombies' Repeatedly Attack Lines Around Bakhmut 

Russian tactics that are endlessly repeated. They say Russian soldiers advance, Ukrainian artillery destroys them, then more come the next day.

 

 

Of course Zelensky was going home with another arms commitment. This is interesting. Included in the package are: 45,000 152MM artillery rounds, 20,000 122MM artillery rounds, 50,000 122MM Grad rockets, and 100,000 125MM Tank rounds. That's all Soviet stuff that works for Ukraine. It's also a damn lot of it. Biden is definitely making it happen.