Solar saving neighborhoods money

[billeisele 130]

10 hours ago, billvon said:

Countrywide we're installing ~100 megawatt-hours a quarter of residential storage.  Given an average storage size of about 10kwhr, that's 40K new installations a year - and that has been roughly tripling every year.  Hawaii and California are the largest markets for now.  I have a feeling after this week we will see an upswing in Texas.

 

What is the technology and the cost? 

Texas - their own control area and frozen spinners, oops. Some mistakes are just not acceptable. It will be interesting to see what the residents have to say after the state thaws out.

[ryoder 1,590]

No, frozen wind turbines aren't the main culprit for Texas' power outages

He went on to note the shutdown of a nuclear reactor in Bay City because of the cold, and finally got to what energy experts say is the biggest culprit, “Low Supply of Natural Gas: ERCOT planned on 67GW from natural gas/coal, but could only get 43GW of it online. We didn’t run out of natural gas, but we ran out of the ability to get natural gas. Pipelines in Texas don’t use cold insulation —so things were freezing.”

...

Only 7% of ERCOT’s forecasted winter capacity, or six gigawatts, was expected to come from various wind power sources across the state.

 

So they are operating with only 64% of their normal natural gas supply. 

Edited February 17, 2021 by ryoder

[Phil1111 1,149]

5 hours ago, billvon said:

Yep.  And in 1954, Lewis Strauss, chairman of the United States Atomic Energy Commission said that "it is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter."  ...

There was an extensive interview on CNBC with a Texas power official. He blamed Texas power failures on elected officials who under-price electricity to large institutional and commercial users. and

"Ed Hirs, an energy fellow in the Department of Economics at the University of Houston, blamed the failures on the state’s deregulated power system, which doesn’t provide power generators with the returns needed to invest in maintaining and improving power plants.

“The ERCOT grid has collapsed in exactly the same manner as the old Soviet Union,” said Hirs. “It limped along on underinvestment and neglect until it finally broke under predictable circumstances.

“For more than a decade, generators have not been able to charge what it costs them to produce electricity,” said Hirs. “If you don’t make a return on your money, how can you keep it up? It’s like not taking care of your car. If you don’t change the oil and tires, you can’t expect your car to be ready to evacuate, let alone get you to work....Most of the power knocked offline came from thermal sources, Woodfin said, particularly natural gas.

Hirs said Houston residents can expect more power outages in the future.

“The year 2011 was a miserable cold snap and there were blackouts,” said Hirs. “It happened before and will continue to happen until Texas restructures its electricity market.”

[billvon 3,085]

59 minutes ago, billeisele said:

What is the technology and the cost? 

Texas - their own control area and frozen spinners, oops. Some mistakes are just not acceptable. It will be interesting to see what the residents have to say after the state thaws out.

Technology is lithium chemistry batteries, same as used in cars.  Cost is around $400/kwhr for small systems, $200/kwhr for large system.

Yep, ERCOT will have some 'splainin to do.

[billvon 3,085]

2 hours ago, gowlerk said:

LiPo batteries are scary dangerous though.

Yeah, they are the drunk streetracers of the battery world.  Cylindrical lithium ions have gotten pretty safe - and LiFePO4 have gotten both very safe and very cheap.  Tesla is considering using them to do a cheap lower-range car for China.

[kallend 2,114]

7 hours ago, gowlerk said:

LiPo batteries are scary dangerous though.

So is gasoline.

[kallend 2,114]

5 hours ago, ryoder said:

No, frozen wind turbines aren't the main culprit for Texas' power outages

He went on to note the shutdown of a nuclear reactor in Bay City because of the cold, and finally got to what energy experts say is the biggest culprit, “Low Supply of Natural Gas: ERCOT planned on 67GW from natural gas/coal, but could only get 43GW of it online. We didn’t run out of natural gas, but we ran out of the ability to get natural gas. Pipelines in Texas don’t use cold insulation —so things were freezing.”

...

Only 7% of ERCOT’s forecasted winter capacity, or six gigawatts, was expected to come from various wind power sources across the state.

 

So they are operating with only 64% of their normal natural gas supply. 

 

• Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) has told buyers that it will be forced to curtail oil deliveries from the Permian Basin region due to complications from the historic Texas freeze, in the first force majeure among the area's major oil producers, Bloomberg reports.
• Occidental - the single largest oil driller in the Permian Basin - reportedly said in a force majeure notice sent to customers that weather had disrupted transportation facilities and forced delays in receiving and delivering oil by carries.
• The company also expects curtailments of shipments downstream because of limited deliveries into Midland, Houston and Corpus Christi.
• At least 2M bbl/day of oil oil production is said to have been shut by well freeze-ups, icy roads and power losses.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

9 hours ago, gowlerk said:

LiPo batteries are scary dangerous though.

Not really.

They're fairly delicate and a potential fire hazard.

Over discharging them can ruin them, so you have to be careful.

Charging them incorrectly can start a fire. 
So you have to use a 'smart' charger and either keep them in a safe area or not leave them alone (or both) when charging them.

Keep in mind that 'old school' lead acid batteries contain...
Sulfuric acid.
They also produce hydrogen gas when being charged.

Ever see a battery explosion?

THAT is something that's very scary.

[billeisele 130]

7 hours ago, ryoder said:

No, frozen wind turbines aren't the main culprit for Texas' power outages

He went on to note the shutdown of a nuclear reactor in Bay City because of the cold, and finally got to what energy experts say is the biggest culprit, “Low Supply of Natural Gas: ERCOT planned on 67GW from natural gas/coal, but could only get 43GW of it online. We didn’t run out of natural gas, but we ran out of the ability to get natural gas. Pipelines in Texas don’t use cold insulation —so things were freezing.”

...

Only 7% of ERCOT’s forecasted winter capacity, or six gigawatts, was expected to come from various wind power sources across the state.

 

So they are operating with only 64% of their normal natural gas supply. 

Plenty of "single point of failure" items have been discovered. Apparently they either: 1) didn't think about these, 2) did and determined that the risk was too small to worry about, or 3) something got wet and cold that wasn't supposed too.

A safety device that froze and tripped a nuke plant. Good news is that safety systems work.

NG pipelines that aren't designed for cold weather. Definitely a cost issue.

Wind turbines that don't have gear box, motor and blade heaters. No clue about cost but nothing in the wind business is cheap except the fuel.

Coal plants with frozen coal. That's a known issue. Plants are either built for cold or they are not. It's a cost issue. Once the coal freezes on the belt or in the hopper the only option is thawing. The running plant is the heat source. Once it stops many things start to cool off, oil get sludgy, other pipes freeze, anything with internal moisture is a problem, it's a long list. You'll find all the problems when you try to light off and put heat in the place.

When the sun shines and warms stuff up things will slowly get back to normal. Putting heat in pipes, blades and generators takes time, and recovering the grid is a methodical process..

All this is solvable if one throws enough money at it but folks like low power rates. I'm sure we'll see a "commission" to investigate, cost estimates in the "billions and rates will rise xx%", and all the typical talking heads stuff. In the end not much if anything will be done. Next time it happens, "we should have learned our lessons from the blizzard of 2021." No easy answers.

 

 

[JoeWeber 2,857]

8 hours ago, billeisele said:

and frozen spinners, oops

Bill,

You've gone to great pains to write reasonably and with authority about grid issues on these pages. And yet when it was easily known that it was cold affecting natural gas deliveries, not windmills, that caused the Texas power problems you went immediately to the canard. That's not good.

[JoeWeber 2,857]

7 hours ago, billvon said:

Technology is lithium chemistry batteries, same as used in cars.  Cost is around $400/kwhr for small systems, $200/kwhr for large system.

Yep, ERCOT will have some 'splainin to do.

What 'splainin'? There isn't a hell of a lot that's more solid than a barbed wire fence or taller than an armadillo between Dallas and Winnipeg. Our national power grid was attacked by Canada. Simple as that.

[JoeWeber 2,857]

10 hours ago, gowlerk said:

LiPo batteries are scary dangerous though.

I don't agree and have bet otherwise. I put 1200W Lithiums in my Caravans and 4ea 5000W Lithiums in my boat which is also fed by 2kW of Solar. Modern Technology coupled with advanced charge controllers and battery management systems make the systems extremely safe. I should also point out that there are outstanding fuel and maintenance savings from both systems--no gas powered APU to start the aircraft, less genset operations needed for ships power. And, for the aircraft, one less person needing to be paid to start the aircraft and unplug the APU all while being proximate to a spinning propeller. The future is definitely here and sure to get better.

[billeisele 130]

6 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Bill,

You've gone to great pains to write reasonably and with authority about grid issues on these pages. And yet when it was easily known that it was cold affecting natural gas deliveries, not windmills, that caused the Texas power problems you went immediately to the canard. That's not good.

Yep, jumped the gun without all the facts, not good. Had to look up that word figuring you weren't referring to a small wing. Read one article thinking it was correct and repeated the info. Good ole reliable news media. Sure am glad that no one else does that. Maybe waiting for the FBI to finish their investigation and having comprehensive facts would have been good for Nancy.

Regardless, you are correct. Please note my post this morning that is more comprehensive. The frozen spinners are part of the problem (lack of generation) but not the root cause of the problem.

Regardless of the cause it's a mess and a black eye for the industry. It's an interesting issue and will raise questions about how much money should be spent and how many levels of protection are needed. Will probably see a surge in generator sales. You can be sure the ERCOT folks and the other grid operators are concerned about the fall out. It often means more federal oversight from acronym agencies.

In SC after each ice event or hurricane, which both are fairly rare, people buy tons of generators and stock pile other stuff. A year later one can buy a used generator at a great price. And then it happens again.

This event will be spun all kinds of ways.

[wmw999 2,556]

One thing that housetop and local solar or wind arrays do is provide some redundancy to the system; lots of little things adding in, rather than depending on a single entity always working. No, we still need the big mamma power generation, but with local generation being fed back into the grid, there is some power available to supplement (especially for the people who invested in those housetop arrays).

Dissimilar redundancy isn't as efficient or cheap, but in changing environments it can provide a backup for unforeseen circumstances.

In the Russian space station MIR, people joked about the "oxygen candles" that were lit when their primary system failed. But with a completely different mechanism, a systemic failure wouldn't affect them. NASA uses similar technology on the ISS as a backup; it's not great, but it beats all the alternatives (Vika system)
 

Wendy P.

[JoeWeber 2,857]

32 minutes ago, billeisele said:

Maybe waiting for the FBI to finish their investigation and having comprehensive facts would have been good for Nancy.

 

Lest the canard bell get's rung again, please flesh out what you mean by this statement.

[gowlerk 2,259]

1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

I don't agree and have bet otherwise. I put 1200W Lithiums in my Caravans and 4ea 5000W Lithiums in my boat which is also fed by 2kW of Solar.

I'm glad you found happy batteries. But those aren't the ones I'm talking about. LiPo  (lithium polymer) used in R/Cs are very lightweight high energy bundles of potential instability. They require very careful care, feeding, and handling. 

https://www.thedronegirl.com/2015/02/07/lipo-battery/

[gowlerk 2,259]

1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

Our national power grid was attacked by Canada. Simple as that.

We will send you all the energy your politicians are willing to buy. You have to supply the infrastructure. Mexico won't pay and neither will we.

[JoeWeber 2,857]

16 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

We will send you all the energy your politicians are willing to buy. You have to supply the infrastructure. Mexico won't pay and neither will we.

Does tar sands oil freeze? That could be a hitch.

[JoeWeber 2,857]

25 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I'm glad you found happy batteries. But those aren't the ones I'm talking about. LiPo  (lithium polymer) used in R/Cs are very lightweight high energy bundles of potential instability. They require very careful care, feeding, and handling. 

https://www.thedronegirl.com/2015/02/07/lipo-battery/

You are right. But I hope we're all in agreement that any drone that self destructs is a good drone.

[brenthutch 444]

58 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

One thing that housetop and local solar or wind arrays do is provide some redundancy to the system; lots of little things adding in, rather than depending on a single entity always working. No, we still need the big mamma power generation, but with local generation being fed back into the grid, there is some power available to supplement (especially for the people who invested in those housetop arrays).

Dissimilar redundancy isn't as efficient or cheap, but in changing environments it can provide a backup for unforeseen circumstances.

In the Russian space station MIR, people joked about the "oxygen candles" that were lit when their primary system failed. But with a completely different mechanism, a systemic failure wouldn't affect them. NASA uses similar technology on the ISS as a backup; it's not great, but it beats all the alternatives (Vika system)
 

Wendy P.

If TX had a solar panel on every roof, a battery in every garage, replaced every oil derrick with a wind turbine, and had a Tesla in every driveway, they would be freezing to death by the thousands.

[gowlerk 2,259]

6 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Does tar sands oil freeze? That could be a hitch.

We can send you Nelson River hydroelectric power to help keep the above ground portions of your new pipeline working. 

[JoeWeber 2,857]

5 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

We can send you Nelson River hydroelectric power to help keep the above ground portions of your new pipeline working. 

Can we just have the hydro power, please.

[ryoder 1,590]

3 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Keep in mind that 'old school' lead acid batteries contain...
Sulfuric acid.
They also produce hydrogen gas when being charged.

Ever see a battery explosion?

THAT is something that's very scary.

Been there; Done that. (Actually just witnessed it)

Couple guys were jumpstarting a car, and I was standing there beside them.

BANG!!!

It sounded like a gunshot and we all scattered. Then when we didn't see anyone with a gun, we all gathered back at the cars, then noticed the top of one battery was completely gone!

[kallend 2,114]

33 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

You are right. But I hope we're all in agreement that any drone that self destructs is a good drone.

Define "drone".  My R/C models and a DJI quadcopter are considered the same thing by the FAA per FAR Part 107.

[gowlerk 2,259]

33 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Can we just have the hydro power, please.

It flows into MN all the time. A new line was just completed last year.

https://www.hydro.mb.ca/projects/mb_mn_transmission/