A balanced and fun economic lesson

[brenthutch 444]

 

[billvon 3,096]

A fun new development in economics:

Trump just picked Stephen Moore to be the next U.S. Federal Reserve governor.  Is he qualified?  He doesn't think so:  "I'm kind of new to this game, frankly, so I'm going to be on a steep learning curve myself about how the Fed operates, how the Federal Reserve makes its decisions."  So what will he do there?  He's not sure. "It's hard for me to say even what my role will be there, assuming I get confirmed."

So there's that.  Who can learn from?  He thinks the "one guy who gets" the Fed "is Trump. . . .He told me in a meeting last month that the Fed is preventing us from staying on a 3 to 4 percent growth path."  So the plan is to learn economics from the guy who has a PhD in bankruptcies.

What could go wrong?

[brenthutch 444]

Bill I am no fan of Trump, in my opinion he is an amoral carnival barker with the intellect of a box of hammers.  I do like many of his policies however, tax cuts, deregulation, judges, border security and energy dominance to name a few.  

[gowlerk 2,266]

29 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Bill I am no fan of Trump, in my opinion he is an amoral carnival barker with the intellect of a box of hammers.  I do like many of his policies however, tax cuts, deregulation, judges, border security and energy dominance to name a few.  

Those are all pretty much run of the mill conservative R positions. Nothing revolutionary in them. What is different is what you have identified, the carnival barker aspect. Apparently a lot of people who like those policies also like amoral carnival barker types as well. The could have picked Rubio or Cruz and got the same policies, but no. They preferred Trump. Makes me wonder about just what makes conservatives tick.

[billvon 3,096]

59 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Bill I am no fan of Trump, in my opinion he is an amoral carnival barker with the intellect of a box of hammers.  I do like many of his policies however, tax cuts, deregulation, judges, border security and energy dominance to name a few.  

Re: deregulation.  Boeing CEO Muilenburg recently lauded him for his help "streamlining" the approval process for new aircraft: "The [Trump] administration has been very engaged across government agencies and with industry to find ideas and ways and opportunities to simplify and streamline.  Things like FAA certification processes is one place that we're seeing some solid progress.  That's helping us more efficiently work through certification on some of our new model aircraft, such as the Max, as it's going through flight test and entering into service."

Deregulation is great in theory - but sometimes the cost is very, very high.  Let's hope his other deregulation efforts don't have such a high price tag.

 

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Never understood how people think efficiency should be the guiding principle for government policy.

[kallend 2,131]

2 hours ago, billvon said:

Re: deregulation.  Boeing CEO Muilenburg recently lauded him for his help "streamlining" the approval process for new aircraft: "The [Trump] administration has been very engaged across government agencies and with industry to find ideas and ways and opportunities to simplify and streamline.  Things like FAA certification processes is one place that we're seeing some solid progress.  That's helping us more efficiently work through certification on some of our new model aircraft, such as the Max, as it's going through flight test and entering into service."

Deregulation is great in theory - but sometimes the cost is very, very high.  Let's hope his other deregulation efforts don't have such a high price tag.

 

Funny that the same people who think the government should get out  and stay out of corporations' business are the exact same ones that think government should regulate womens' uteruses.

Edited March 25, 2019 by kallend

[jakee 1,584]

3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

 I do like many of his policies however, tax cuts, deregulation, judges, border security and energy dominance to name a few.  

“Judges” is a policy? I guess now that ‘lock her up’ is over the most popular parts of Trump’s speeches boil down to just naming things people like. Think how efficient he could be on the stump in 2020.

 

”Judges. Military! Borders. Bibles! Coal. Money! Trump!”

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

So you like record budget deficits and overall debt? By the same folks who shut the government down because of the debt ceiling?
You like planes that 'short-cutted' the certification process? Using rivers and streams as garbage dumps because its convenient and cheap?
You think someone who was credibly accused of sexual assault should have a lifetime appointment to the highest court in the land?
You think we should spend $50 billion (low estimate) on a wall that no actual expert thinks is a good idea? What happened to "Mexico will pay for it"?
What is 'energy dominance' exactly? Consuming the majority of it? Trying to keep a dying source (coal) going well beyond what market forces dictate? Sucking up to Saudi Arabia?

You're absolutely right about the 'carnival barker' and 'dumber than a bag of hammers' part. I have yet to see coherent policy about anything. It's all about what's in front of his face at the moment, what Fox News is saying and what he thinks he can get away with. North Korea is a good example of this. Huge promises, no clue what's really going on, bowing and scraping to a second rate dictator in charge of a third rate country and then...
Failing miserably. KJU gets what he wants (exercises cancelled, nuke and missile programs on the fast track). Trump gets...
A few dead bodies from 65 years ago. (good that we have them back, but not at that cost)

[brenthutch 444]

Wow, first of all If you think Dr Ford's accusations were credible, there is no hope for you.  Second I never said any about a wall.  Even Obama's head of Customs and Border Control stated "we do not have operational control of our southern boarder". (If we did Trump would not be president). Thirdly I never said anything about coal, I was referring to the US ascension to the number one oil and natural gas producer in the world.  Far from sucking up to Russia and Saudi Arabia we have supplanted them as the dominant energy power.  In my book, that is a good thing.  With regard to North Korea he is no less a failure than Obama, GWB, Clinton and Bush sr.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

What does "operational control" mean?

I mean as long as the majority of contraband is coming through controlled points of entry it is a bit of a weird term.

Edited March 26, 2019 by SkyDekker

[SkyDekker 1,465]

3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

With regard to North Korea he is no less a failure than Obama, GWB, Clinton and Bush sr.

Well, other than that those guys never said North Korea is no longer a threat. Trump did.

[brenthutch 444]

As I said, carnival barker, and to be fair, Clinton pretty much said the same thing

Edited March 26, 2019 by brenthutch

[brenthutch 444]

6 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

What does "operational control" mean?

I mean as long as the majority of contraband is coming through controlled points of entry it is a bit of a weird term.

There are a few more things slipping through our southern border other than contraband.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

So what is operational control? What does that mean? You highlight it as an important determination, but what is it?

[brenthutch 444]

To be able to control what and who passes through our border.

[billvon 3,096]

27 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Wow, first of all If you think Dr Ford's accusations were credible, there is no hope for you.  

Most people in the US think her accusations were credible.  I guess there's no hope for the US.

Quote

Even Obama's head of Customs and Border Control stated "we do not have operational control of our southern boarder". (If we did Trump would not be president).

BS.  Trump would have found some other topic to harp on, like banning Muslim immigration or making marital rape less illegal.

Quote

Thirdly I never said anything about coal, I was referring to the US ascension to the number one oil and natural gas producer in the world.  Far from sucking up to Russia and Saudi Arabia we have supplanted them as the dominant energy power.  In my book, that is a good thing.

Bad thing in my book, basing trade on something that will run out.  We'd be way better off exporting technology, high tech products and the best trained scientists and engineers in the world; we won't run out of them (as long as we replace Trump with someone who values education, that is.)

Quote

 With regard to North Korea he is no less a failure than Obama, GWB, Clinton and Bush sr.

No other president has elevated North Korea to a recognized world power as much as Trump has.

[brenthutch 444]

Run out?  That is what they said before the cutting edge technology of fracking and horizontal drilling.  Now we have more than a century's worth of oil and gas and counting.  The Saudis tried to crush our domestic oil and gas production by flooding the market and driving down prices.  Our domestic producers sharpened their pencils and refined their processes (pun intended) and now we can out compete the Saudis and the Russians.  Since I am not a fan of MBS or Putin, I think that is a good thing. If you are pro Saudi or pro Russian it would make sense that you would have a different position.

Edited March 26, 2019 by brenthutch

[brenthutch 444]

With regard to Trump, one may characterize him as a Machiavellian evil genius or a complete doofus, I choose the latter.

[jakee 1,584]

6 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Wow, first of all If you think Dr Ford's accusations were credible, there is no hope for you.  Second I never said any about a wall.  

But that is Trump’s central, core, overriding policy on the border. You can’t say you support Trumps policy on the border then moan when people start talking to you about the wall. It’s lazy communication on your part.

 

if you support Trump on the border but don’t support the wall, what specifically is he doing that you do support?

 

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

 With regard to North Korea he is no less a failure than Obama, GWB, Clinton and Bush sr.

Don’t think anyone here disagrees with that. He is for sure more of a failure than any other recent President regarding Notth Korea.

[billvon 3,096]

10 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Run out?  That is what they said before the cutting edge technology of fracking and horizontal drilling.  Now we have more than a century's worth of oil and gas and counting.  

We are extracting 4 billion barrels a day.  Proven reserves are 36 billion barrels.  Unproven but estimated reserves are 200 billion barrels.  The actual amount of oil remaining is almost certainly within those bounds.

That means we have between 9 and 25 years of oil left - if we don't increase production.

Surely planning for what happens after 9 years (if we hit the earlier limit) is something even someone who can only look 10 years out is worthwhile?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_States

[brenthutch 444]

From what I have read, the concept of the wall was developed by his staff to keep him on point with regard to border security.  It quickly became a crowd favorite that   fed into Trump's ego, a cycle which quickly spun into comic proportions.  I am for following our own laws, and securing our border.  I will leave it to the experts to determine what mix of physical barriers, increased patrolling, and technology is required to achieve that end.

[brenthutch 444]

Bill, as you know, estimates of peek oil have never failed to fail.

[jakee 1,584]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

From what I have read, the concept of the wall was developed by his staff to keep him on point with regard to border security.  It quickly became a crowd favorite that   fed into Trump's ego, a cycle which quickly spun into comic proportions.  I am for following our own laws, and securing our border.  I will leave it to the experts to determine what mix of physical barriers, increased patrolling, and technology is required to achieve that end.

So in what way do you support what Trump’s border policy actually is? 

[kallend 2,131]

"A balanced and fun economic lesson"

Certainly does NOT describe Trump's budget, which is far from balanced despite his campaign promises.