Hurricane Irma and Climate Change

[airdvr 210]

gowlerk

******Part of the link explained in a simple way.

http://time.com/4931586/irma-hurricane-season-climate-change/?xid=homepage

And we have a winner


Who, me or Time Magazine? The story is not so much about Irma as the record rainfall from Harvey.

The One Number That Shows Why Climate Change Is Making Hurricane Season Worse

It's a great piece that somehow believes less than 1 degree rise in the surface temperature of the ocean is causing an increase in storms.

If only there actually was an increase.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[gowlerk 2,277]

Quote

It's a great piece that somehow believes less than 1 degree rise in the surface temperature of the ocean is causing an increase in storms.

Now go back and actually read the article. It is not long, it won't take much time. Not once does it make any mention of any increase in storms. It says that any given storm should contain more water.

The gist of it is in this paragraph:

“A warmer ocean makes a warmer atmosphere, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture,” says Gabriel Vecchi, a professor of geosciences at Princeton University who studies extreme weather events. “So, all other things equal, the same storm in a warmer planet would give you more rainfall.”

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[airdvr 210]

gowlerk

Quote

It's a great piece that somehow believes less than 1 degree rise in the surface temperature of the ocean is causing an increase in storms.

Now go back and actually read the article. It is not long, it won't take much time. Not once does it make any mention of any increase in storms. It says that any given storm should contain more water.

The gist of it is in this paragraph:

“A warmer ocean makes a warmer atmosphere, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture,” says Gabriel Vecchi, a professor of geosciences at Princeton University who studies extreme weather events. “So, all other things equal, the same storm in a warmer planet would give you more rainfall.”

True however, the headline that reads Climate Change Causing More Rainfall doesn't sell magazines.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[gowlerk 2,277]

Quote

True however, the headline that reads Climate Change Causing More Rainfall doesn't sell magazines.

Headline writing has always been a sub specialty in news reporting. Larger papers had writers who did only headlines, more commonly it was editors. Rarely were the reporters involved.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[ryoder 1,590]

gowlerk

Quote

True however, the headline that reads Climate Change Causing More Rainfall doesn't sell magazines.

Headline writing has always been a sub specialty in news reporting. Larger papers had writers who did only headlines, more commonly it was editors. Rarely were the reporters involved.

I once sent a comment to the writer of an article on The Register, and learned their headlines are not written by the author of the article.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[billvon 3,121]

>True however, the headline that reads Climate Change Causing More Rainfall
>doesn't sell magazines.

You were claiming that the title suggested that an increase in ocean temperatures causing an increase in storms. The actual title was: "The One Number That Shows Why Climate Change Is Making Hurricane Season Worse." Nothing about the number of storms, just that the season will get worse. When you read the article, you discover that it will be worse due to more rainfall, not due to increasing storms.

[jakee 1,599]

airdvr

*********Part of the link explained in a simple way.

http://time.com/4931586/irma-hurricane-season-climate-change/?xid=homepage

And we have a winner


Who, me or Time Magazine? The story is not so much about Irma as the record rainfall from Harvey.

The One Number That Shows Why Climate Change Is Making Hurricane Season Worse

It's a great piece that somehow believes less than 1 degree rise in the surface temperature of the ocean is causing an increase in storms.

If only there actually was an increase.

Please be less ambiguous. Do you think the article says there is an increase in the number of storms, or the severity of storms, or both?

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[airdvr 210]

billvon

>True however, the headline that reads Climate Change Causing More Rainfall
>doesn't sell magazines.

You were claiming that the title suggested that an increase in ocean temperatures causing an increase in storms. The actual title was: "The One Number That Shows Why Climate Change Is Making Hurricane Season Worse." Nothing about the number of storms, just that the season will get worse. When you read the article, you discover that it will be worse due to more rainfall, not due to increasing storms.

From the quote above...

1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.

Looks like the folks at Time missed that memo. And if you don't think the media is playing around with this message you would be wrong.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[normiss 900]

Size comparison of hurricane Andrew vs. hurricane Irma

We live 25 miles from the coast.
Gulp.

I've handed over the on-call responsibilities for the network for Sunday and Monday.

There's also talk of climate change impacting the fires out west. They, too, have grown immensely.

[billvon 3,121]

>1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable
>anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm
>conclusion can be made on this point.

That was from 2006, based on the data available then. What does the same organization say today after more than ten years of additional study?

=============
- Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.

- There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very intense tropical cyclone in some basins–an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones.

- Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day ones, with a model-projected increase of about 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.
===============

[gowlerk 2,277]

You seem pretty fixated on finding fault in media coverage of climate issues. Almost as though you think if you can find small errors or exaggerations it will somehow mean that AGW is not happening.

Leaving the hurricane cycle and warm water completely out of the equation it should be clear even to you the sea level rise will make the effects of storms worse. And sea level rise is happening, is measurable, and further increases are somewhat predictable. This is not the end of the world. But it may signal the beginning of the end of Miami FL, and other low lying cities.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

normiss

Size comparison of hurricane Andrew vs. hurricane Irma

We live 25 miles from the coast.
Gulp.

I've handed over the on-call responsibilities for the network for Sunday and Monday.

There's also talk of climate change impacting the fires out west. They, too, have grown immensely.

Those fires out west have an effect on weather systems in the US. Weather systems in the US have an effect on the trajectory of hurricanes

At least I think some Chinese guy once told me that.

[winsor 236]

billvon

>There is no hurricane. It's all another hoax by scientists looking for research grsnts.

Well, maybe there is, but it's caused by lesbians.

As a lesbian trapped in a man's body, I resent that.

[rushmc 23]

kallend

******I looked at it.
What about this one?
See any trends here?

Shhhhhhhhh... its from Breitbart so it must be true.

There is science and there are the believers in fake news whereby science is all about money for researchers.

Meanwhile there are facts which can be debated instead of feelings...aka trump-think.

"A review of existing studies, including the ones cited above, lead us to conclude that it is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes."
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

This outfit's mission is:
"GFDL’s mission is to advance scientific understanding of climate and its natural and anthropogenic variations and impacts, and improve NOAA’s predictive capabilities, through the development and use of world-leading computer models of the Earth System."

So they produced the models that suggested Cat 5 for Irma before it was Cat 5 and develops tracks for the storm.

We only have their word for that! It's all a hoax. Both Trump and Limbaugh have told us as much.

The only hoax here is your post.

but then you like to parrot lies about Trump and Limbaugh
It is what keeps you goind

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 23]

gowlerk

Quote

It's a great piece that somehow believes less than 1 degree rise in the surface temperature of the ocean is causing an increase in storms.

Now go back and actually read the article. It is not long, it won't take much time. Not once does it make any mention of any increase in storms. It says that any given storm should contain more water.

The gist of it is in this paragraph:

“A warmer ocean makes a warmer atmosphere, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture,” says Gabriel Vecchi, a professor of geosciences at Princeton University who studies extreme weather events. “So, all other things equal, the same storm in a warmer planet would give you more rainfall.”

And all of it is part of the earths natural cycles.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 23]

normiss

There's also talk of climate change impacting the fires out west. They, too, have grown immensely.

what is causing the fires is poor forest management pushed by tree hugger eco nuts!

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 23]

and yet we have not seen anything outside historical norms....

Just another failed prediction.

But then, it is all supposed to past the point of no return in 3 years now so what's the point?

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[nolhtairt 0]

kallend

***I just assumed god's wrath due to America sinning.

If that's actually the case, I'm screwed!

In all, nearly 70 percent of households were without power and 17 percent of Puerto Rico was without water, Gov. Ricardo Rosselló said on Thursday, but otherwise the island was largely unscathed.

“We would like to start out thanking the Almighty,” Mr. Rosselló said. “Our prayers were answered.”

They prayed for a destructive hurricane? Very odd.

They prayed to be spared the worst. Simple as that.

[kallend 2,156]

rushmc

*********I looked at it.
What about this one?
See any trends here?

Shhhhhhhhh... its from Breitbart so it must be true.

There is science and there are the believers in fake news whereby science is all about money for researchers.

Meanwhile there are facts which can be debated instead of feelings...aka trump-think.

"A review of existing studies, including the ones cited above, lead us to conclude that it is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes."
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

This outfit's mission is:
"GFDL’s mission is to advance scientific understanding of climate and its natural and anthropogenic variations and impacts, and improve NOAA’s predictive capabilities, through the development and use of world-leading computer models of the Earth System."

So they produced the models that suggested Cat 5 for Irma before it was Cat 5 and develops tracks for the storm.

We only have their word for that! It's all a hoax. Both Trump and Limbaugh have told us as much.

The only hoax here is your post.

but then you like to parrot lies about Trump and Limbaugh
It is what keeps you goind

Both Trump and Limbaugh are on the record as claiming that AGW is a hoax.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[billvon 3,121]

>and yet we have not seen anything outside historical norms....

The first chart shows the number of record-breaking precipitation events over time.

The second chart shows losses from extreme weather events.

Both from this week's Economist.

You were saying?

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Economist is fake news. If you want real news you really should listen to infowars.

[jakee 1,599]

nolhtairt

******I just assumed god's wrath due to America sinning.

If that's actually the case, I'm screwed!

In all, nearly 70 percent of households were without power and 17 percent of Puerto Rico was without water, Gov. Ricardo Rosselló said on Thursday, but otherwise the island was largely unscathed.

“We would like to start out thanking the Almighty,” Mr. Rosselló said. “Our prayers were answered.”

They prayed for a destructive hurricane? Very odd.

They prayed to be spared the worst. Simple as that.

Even though the worst hit someone else instead?

How does the sentiment "we're so happy some other people got fucked up instead of us because the supreme overlord of the universe decided we were more deserving than them" not bring to mind a narcissistic sociopath?

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[gowlerk 2,277]

Quote

How does the sentiment "we're so happy some other people got fucked up instead of us because the supreme overlord of the universe decided we were more deserving than them" not bring to mind a narcissistic sociopath?

It goes right along with thanking the Lady for helping us win the football game. Obviously She prefers us over them.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[DirtyChai 0]

gowlerk

You seem pretty fixated on finding fault in media coverage of climate issues. Almost as though you think if you can find small errors or exaggerations it will somehow mean that AGW is not happening.

It just means that those errors or exaggerations by the media make it more difficult for people to understand the effects of climate change. It damages the overall credibility of the issue and makes it harder to bring deniers/alarmists back to reality, especially since it's been so politicized - it's ridiculous.

I've read both right and left wing articles on AGW and it's amazing how their twisted conclusions and divisive language are nowhere to be found in the actual studies they're referencing.

[JerryBaumchen 1,469]

Hi jakee,

Quote

happy some other people got fucked up instead of us

After WWII there were a lot of studies of people who had been in combat & why they did what they did and why they acted the way they did. One study determined that when the guy next to you got killed, your first emotion was happiness; it was not you.

I read an article on this particular study in JAMA about '62-'63*; JAMA => Journal of the American Medical Association.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAMA_(journal)

Jerry Baumchen

* At this time-frame, I worked in a USAF hospital and we subscribed to JAMA as well as other medical publications.