billvon 3,111 #51 February 2, 2017 brenthutchObama secured the nomination on June 3, 2008 then Sept. 15: Lehman Brothers files the largest bankruptcy case in US history. Oct. 6-10: The Dow suffers its worst weekly loss in history, falling 1,874 points, or 18 percent. Aug 4 1961 - Obama born ~Dec 1960 - Obama conceived Dec 1960 - Recession of 1960-1961 occurs Coincidence? I think not! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 444 #52 February 2, 2017 billvon ***Obama secured the nomination on June 3, 2008 then Sept. 15: Lehman Brothers files the largest bankruptcy case in US history. Oct. 6-10: The Dow suffers its worst weekly loss in history, falling 1,874 points, or 18 percent. Aug 4 1961 - Obama born ~Dec 1960 - Obama conceived Dec 1960 - Recession of 1960-1961 occurs Coincidence? I think not! No he couldn't have been responsible, wasn't in the country yet. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jakee 1,594 #53 February 2, 2017 brenthutchThey were ignored by the pollsters Well no shit. If they've never voted why would pollsters pay any attention to them?Do you want to have an ideagasm? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 444 #54 February 2, 2017 jakee***They were ignored by the pollsters Well no shit. If they've never voted why would pollsters pay any attention to them? Two words... President Trump Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jakee 1,594 #55 February 2, 2017 brenthutch******They were ignored by the pollsters Well no shit. If they've never voted why would pollsters pay any attention to them? Two words... President Trump You said they were oft ignored but had never voted. So the pollsters were absolutely right to ignore them every time up until now, and on this occasion were taken by suprise.Do you want to have an ideagasm? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 444 #56 February 2, 2017 Anybody taking a drive through rural PA would have noticed Trump signs everywhere, many of them self painted. McCane and Romney never had support like that. I was at a small diner all anyone was talking about was Trump. I was talking to a biker guy and he was moved to tears telling me that Trump was going to win and that He was going to fix the country. To be fair we were drinking. This struck me as very sad, as I thought Trump had no chance. It was not until Election Day when there were no lines in blue areas and two hour lines in red ones that I realized the political earth was shifting. I get it guys. I know what it feels like to have victory in your grasp only to see it slip away under the most improbable of circumstances. I have felt the heart crushing pain of watching UCLA kick the winning field goal as time ran out in the Rose Boal....er... I mean watching the Blue Wall crumble. Pick yourselvs up get some new recruits and a better game plan and move on. Anything else is just counterproductive. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DJL 235 #57 February 2, 2017 brenthutchAnybody taking a drive through rural PA would have noticed Trump signs everywhere, many of them self painted. McCane and Romney never had support like that. I was at a small diner all anyone was talking about was Trump. A was talking to a biker guy and he was moved to tears telling me that Trump was going to win and that He was going to fix the country. To be fair we were drinking. This struck me as very sad, as I thought Trump had no chance. It was not until Election Day when there were no lines in blue areas and two hour lines in red ones that I realized the political earth was shifting. I get it guys. I know what it feels like to have victory in your grasp only to see it slip away under the most improbable of circumstances. I have felt the heart crushing pain of watching UCLA kick the winning field goal as time ran out in the Rose Boal....er... I mean watching the Blue Wall crumble. Pick yourselvs up get some new recruits and a better game plan and move on. Anything else is just counterproductive. I live in downtown Richmond, Va. When I got out of the City I always said, "Holy Shit" and tried to keep my eyes on the road."I encourage all awesome dangerous behavior." - Jeffro Fincher Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jakee 1,594 #58 February 2, 2017 You realise that you're no longer talking about what we were just talking about, right?Do you want to have an ideagasm? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,111 #59 February 2, 2017 >You realise that you're no longer talking about what we were just talking about, right? Don't harsh his gloat, dude! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 444 #60 February 2, 2017 How am I gloating? I was wrong about the election and Penn State lost the Rose Bowl. 0 for 2 is nothing to gloat about. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,146 #61 February 3, 2017 brenthutchObama secured the nomination on June 3, 2008 then Sept. 15: Lehman Brothers files the largest bankruptcy case in US history. Oct. 6-10: The Dow suffers its worst weekly loss in history, falling 1,874 points, or 18 percent. Nov. unemployment swells to 13.3% compared to 8.7% at the start of the recession. Just as I said. Although I realize "kicked into high gear" may be a maxim beyond your grasp. "Post hoc ergo propter hoc" is a common fallacy. Explain in detail how Obama's nomination caused Moody's to issue AAA ratings to crap, and how Obama's nomination caused AIG (and others) to invest so heavily in derivatives that its executives clearly did not understand.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 444 #62 February 3, 2017 kallend***Obama secured the nomination on June 3, 2008 then Sept. 15: Lehman Brothers files the largest bankruptcy case in US history. Oct. 6-10: The Dow suffers its worst weekly loss in history, falling 1,874 points, or 18 percent. Nov. unemployment swells to 13.3% compared to 8.7% at the start of the recession. Just as I said. Although I realize "kicked into high gear" may be a maxim beyond your grasp. "Post hoc ergo propter hoc" is a common fallacy. Just like CO2 and global warming. Got it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 444 #63 February 3, 2017 https://muddywatermacro.wustl.edu/node/92 Key Points During the “Consumer Age” period from the early 1980s through 2007, much of U.S. demand growth was generated by the rapid growth of consumer spending financed by unprecedented increases in household debt. The unsustainable rise in debt set the stage for the Great Recession. The unprecedented borrowing of American households was facilitated by innovations in mortgage lending that fueled a bubble in home prices. Rising home prices generated more home equity which allowed even more borrowing. The housing bubble burst when interest rates rose and refinancing stalled, forcing more homeowners to try to sell. Home prices began to fall. Lenders began to fear default and cut off credit. With refinancing greatly curtailed and home prices declining, over-extended homeowners began to default on their mortgages. The resulting financial panic caused demand for consumption and new houses to collapse, the trigger of the Great Recession. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wmw999 2,587 #64 February 3, 2017 Those who don't remember history are condemned to repeat it. Negative-am mortgages were the darlings of the early 1980's, when real estate prices in some hot markets (Houston among them, because of the oil boom) were seen as never-ending sure fire appreciation bets. Oil collapsed, taking Houston down. S&L's had their problems, leading to fairly widespread economic misery in the 1980's. Remember tent cities? Gordon Gekko and "greed is good?" 2007 was only unprecedented in the sophistication of the raking off of easy profit. It's happened before, and will happen again. Now that big money has congress even more snugly in their pocket than they did in the 1980's, and even the mid-2000's, watch as normal guys without connections have fewer and fewer chances. Free trade is good. Completely unrestricted free trade is kind of like playing Monopoly with a strong sociopath. He won't follow the rules because he doesn't have to, and doesn't care a bit about the rules or other players. But he's not the normal -- he's the abnormal, who should be protected against. Wendy P.There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,146 #65 February 3, 2017 brenthutch******Obama secured the nomination on June 3, 2008 then Sept. 15: Lehman Brothers files the largest bankruptcy case in US history. Oct. 6-10: The Dow suffers its worst weekly loss in history, falling 1,874 points, or 18 percent. Nov. unemployment swells to 13.3% compared to 8.7% at the start of the recession. Just as I said. Although I realize "kicked into high gear" may be a maxim beyond your grasp. "Post hoc ergo propter hoc" is a common fallacy. Just like CO2 and global warming. Got it. Well, NO, not like science at all.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 444 #66 February 3, 2017 No actually, just like science. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OL6-x0modwY Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,111 #67 February 3, 2017 >No actually, just like science. So 2016 was the year that the GOP became the anti-science party. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jakee 1,594 #68 February 3, 2017 brenthutch https://muddywatermacro.wustl.edu/node/92 Key Points Umm, do you actually remember the position that you're trying to defend, right? 'Cos I didn't see the word 'Obama' pop up anywhere in that articleDo you want to have an ideagasm? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 444 #69 February 3, 2017 The main villain in the Great Recession was the greedy American people. Banks just found ways meet that demand. Clinton and Bush can take some blame for policies which pushed home ownership on folks who had neither the financial nor social wearwithal to handle it. Barney Frank said he had no problem rolling the dice with the banks money, if it ment more home ownership for the poor. This created an artificial demand spike which effected the whole housing market. I do nothing think Obama helped the matter when he told tens of thousands of small business owners that he was going to spread their wealth around. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,111 #70 February 3, 2017 QuoteI do nothing think Obama helped the matter when he told tens of thousands of small business owners that he was going to spread their wealth around. Fortunately, he neither said nor did that. (As you know.) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ryoder 1,590 #71 February 3, 2017 brenthutch The main villain in the Great Recession was the greedy American people. Jeezuz fuggin christ!!!Here; Read a book and educate yourself: https://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393338827 * So the mortgage lendors who were writing fiction on the paperwork and loaning money to anyone with a pulse were innocent? * And when they sold those fraudulent loans to to financial institutions, they were innocent? * And when the financial institutions bundled them up into CDO's and presented them to ratings agencies as AAA quality, they were innocent? And when the ratings agencies blessed them with AAA ratings w/o doing any evaluation whatsoever, they were innocent? Or for the definitive paper on the subject: The Story of the CDO Market Meltdown: An Empirical Analysis by Anna Katherine Barnett-Hart Abstract: Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) have been responsible for $542 billion in write-downs at financial institutions since the beginning of the credit crisis. In this paper, I conduct an empirical investigation into the causes of this adverse performance, looking specifically at asset-backed CDO’s (ABS CDO’s). Using novel, hand-collected data from 735 ABS CDO’s, I document several main findings. First, poor CDO performance was primarily a result of the inclusion of low quality collateral originated in 2006 and 2007 with exposure to the U.S. residential housing market. Second, CDO underwriters played an important role in determining CDO performance. Lastly, the failure of the credit ratings agencies to accurately assess the risk of CDO securities stemmed from an over-reliance on computer models with imprecise inputs. Overall, my findings suggest that the problems in the CDO market were caused by a combination of poorly constructed CDOs, irresponsible underwriting practices, and flawed credit rating procedures. Source: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/students/dunlop/2009-CDOmeltdown.pdf"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 444 #72 February 3, 2017 Government regulators had very lax capital requirements for mortgage backed securities and sovereign debt. That turned out to be a mistake. Lending money to anyone with a pulse was a government initiative. I am not saying the banks did not take advantage, they did but they are not the evil boogie man. On NPR the other day they had an interview with a person who lived in their home for fourty years and now the evil bank was going to foreclose on them just because they stopped paying their mortgage. They tapped the equity in their paid-off house to have a money party and now they can't/won't pay it back. I'm sorry but stupid should hurt. "If you can't be a good example, be a cautionary tale" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,111 #73 February 3, 2017 >I am not saying the banks did not take advantage, they did but they are not the >evil boogie man. Agreed. Nor are home buyers evil greedy boogie men. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phil1111 1,176 #74 February 3, 2017 Some tips on/for economic and geopolitical analysis, for brenthutch. https://blog.digimind.com/en/en-int/the-7-habits-of-highly-successful-intelligence-analysts/ http://io9.gizmodo.com/how-your-mistakes-can-make-you-a-more-rational-person-1469016506 https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rational-and-irrational-thought-the-thinking-that-iq-tests-miss/ I like to give credit where credit is due. -"US created 227,000 jobs in January, vs 175,000 jobs expected" http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/03/us-nonfarm-payrolls-jan-2017.html This is likely attributed to trumps focus on business and jobs. Or more accurately the US business base viewing trump as positive for business. Keep it up and I'll call him President Trump. -"Trump administration imposes new Iran sanctions, warns more may follow" http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-idUSKBN15H253?il=0 Sounds too smart to come from the trump administration. More investigation is needed. - "US Amb. to UN Haley: "I must condemn the aggressive actions of Russia" in eastern Ukraine" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xk_1a_50M08 EU hacking of US secure lines between the trumpenbunker and US Amb. to UN Haley?? These statements make sense. Couldn't have originated from trump. -FOX news reports "Backroom dealings underway to release hero doc who helped get Bin Laden" , of course FOX is notoriously inaccurate. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/02/03/backroom-dealings-underway-to-release-hero-doc-who-helped-get-bin-laden.html Reuters reports: "Pakistan will not free doctor who helped U.S. find bin Laden" http://www.reuters.com/article/pakistan-usa-doctor-idUSL4N1F82K6 Completely disgraceful that Obama never forced Pakistan to release him. Very confused. So is the EU., confused and distrusting. http://www.dw.com/en/opinion-the-eu-has-to-stand-up-to-donald-trump/a-37358179 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ryoder 1,590 #75 February 3, 2017 Phil1111 "US Amb. to UN Haley: "I must condemn the aggressive actions of Russia" in eastern Ukraine" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xk_1a_50M08 EU hacking of US secure lines between the trumpenbunker and US Amb. to UN Haley?? These statements make sense. Couldn't have originated from trump. I'm thinking Haley will soon be following the path of Sally Yates."There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
