Will Trump serve out his full term?

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

I'm not looking to attack or defend Trump in any way. I've made it pretty clear that I think he's unfit for the office, and I have a lot of serious concerns about what will happen.
Others are more optimistic than I.

BUT...

There are some pretty valid questions about his "baggage". He will be in violation of the Enoulments Clause without some major changes. His conflicts of interest are wide and deep.
His lack of understanding of what a "Blind Trust" is is an issue (no, he can't just "give it all to the kids").

And then there's the rest of his behavior.

So, will he serve out his term?

If not, will he be removed or will he just give up and quit?

Or will he be "taken out"? I see this as less likely, because the crowd that tends towards guns and violence is more on his side than against. Although that may well change when the "Alt-Right" crowd finds out how effectively they've been conned.

Or will he make it? Even to a 2nd term?

I don't know if it's an honest opinion or simple hope, but I don't expect to see him last out a year. But I also have a hard time seeing the Republican controlled Congress impeaching him. More likely that he resign.

Edit: Oops, Got the "Greater Than" sign in there instead of the "Less Than." Can't edit the choices.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[winsor 236]

wolfriverjoe

I'm not looking to attack or defend Trump in any way. I've made it pretty clear that I think he's unfit for the office, and I have a lot of serious concerns about what will happen.
Others are more optimistic than I.

BUT...

There are some pretty valid questions about his "baggage". He will be in violation of the Enoulments Clause without some major changes. His conflicts of interest are wide and deep.
His lack of understanding of what a "Blind Trust" is is an issue (no, he can't just "give it all to the kids").

And then there's the rest of his behavior.

So, will he serve out his term?

If not, will he be removed or will he just give up and quit?

Or will he be "taken out"? I see this as less likely, because the crowd that tends towards guns and violence is more on his side than against. Although that may well change when the "Alt-Right" crowd finds out how effectively they've been conned.

Or will he make it? Even to a 2nd term?

I don't know if it's an honest opinion or simple hope, but I don't expect to see him last out a year. But I also have a hard time seeing the Republican controlled Congress impeaching him. More likely that he resign.

Edit: Oops, Got the "Greater Than" sign in there instead of the "Less Than." Can't edit the choices.

Given that he's rather a wild card, I really don't know.

As far as his being impeached, I suspect he's slippery enough that he'd be hard to get. Wrestling with a pig, and all that.

Resign? That would require a conscience, so that's out.

The worst/best case is that he'd join Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley and Kennedy. We have a bad habit of deifying scumbags who don't manage to duck in time.

He is the fulfillment of the Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times."


BSBD,

Winsor

[quade 4]

With most Presidents we have a reasonable expectation of continuity of how our government works and overall checks and balances. For instance, some people were concerned Obama would take away their guns, but the House and Senate could keep that at bay and the fears were essentially unfounded. There is no such assurance Trump can be held in check should he decide to do something crazy.

Trump is a different President than we've ever seen in the US. He brazenly makes the moves one would expect from the president of a banana republic. His appointments are either fellow billionaires or former military loyalists.

I'm uncertain he'd willingly relinquish control even if impeached. There is nothing in his history to suggest he has any respect for the US traditional norms as they pertain to the office.

It is the uncertainty that is the worst part of this right now, and unfortunately it's also the least worse part of the potential he has at his disposal. I can see the potential for civil war in the US. Is that an irrational thing to consider? Possibly with other Presidents, I'm not 100% certain though it's an irrational thought under Trump.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[quade 4]

Of course, the other end of the spectrum would be to ask the question if Trump (and his family) would ever leave the Oval -- ever. As in, somehow becomes "dictator for life" and the US sees a rule of multiple generations.

I think with Trump we now have to consider that literally anything is possible.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[gowlerk 2,277]

I don't see any real possibility of a civil war. There is no issue to fight one over. America has strong institutions that would make a Trump dynasty all but impossible.

He is a loose canon and may do real lasting damage with the power he is assuming. But it is not unlimited power. I suspect he will very quickly alienate the Congress. These are people who are very jealous of their power and will not allow Trump to just walk over them. But short of proven criminal actions, I think impeachment is unlikely.

What does seem likely is a series of ongoing battles with Congress, leading to real opposition and positioning for the next R nomination. Followed by an older and worn out tired Mr. Trump declaring the victory of the Trump revolution and announcing he will not run again. He will wait till the last possible moment to do this though.

As you know, I have been wrong about US politics more often than not.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[airdvr 210]

quade

Of course, the other end of the spectrum would be to ask the question if Trump (and his family) would ever leave the Oval -- ever. As in, somehow becomes "dictator for life" and the US sees a rule of multiple generations.

I think with Trump we now have to consider that literally anything is possible.

Do you read the things that you post?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[nolhtairt 0]

I wouldn't rule out the Republicans helping impeach Trump if it would help get a career politician in the White House (Pence) so they can continue carrying on as usual. They'll find a way if they're desperate enough

[quade 4]

airdvr

***Of course, the other end of the spectrum would be to ask the question if Trump (and his family) would ever leave the Oval -- ever. As in, somehow becomes "dictator for life" and the US sees a rule of multiple generations.

I think with Trump we now have to consider that literally anything is possible.

Do you read the things that you post?

If you can't see the parallels between the way Trump runs his family business and say, the Kim family has set up North Korea, or the KSA works, or Cuba . . .

There is a great book you should read, "The Dictator's Handbook."
https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/1610391845

There are even "free" audio book copies on YouTube if you just want to listen to the first chapter or two as a reference. Although you should probably really buy a copy if you listen to much more than that.
https://youtu.be/G04pINsjagg

Read it and draw your own conclusions about a possible Trump future.

I'm not saying it's going to happen, only that based on Trump's actions, it certainly looks like a possibility.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[nolhtairt 0]

I firmly believe that there are enough checks and balances in our government between the judicial and legislative branches to prevent a sitting POTUS from becoming anything resembling a dictator. Just saying.

[quade 4]

I wouldn't be so certain, but I hope you are right.

That said, the power the Oval has at its disposal, in particular surveillance, has so damn much potential for abuse I can easily see it being used to sweep opposition to him out of the way.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[Royreader8812 0]

Sounds like a bunch of hysterical cry babies in here to me.

Firstly you have Clinton and Obama that I am guessing is the preference of those 'dissing' Trump.

No objection to destroying multiple countries, detaining people without charge and warrant, causing the largest migrant crisis the modern world has seen, and siding with fundamental terrorists, arming them and allowing them to kill thousands of civilians.

But just so long as they do it with a smile on their face, pleasantly smile and instruct the media to blame it on the Russians.

Secondly, Trump is not even president. Maybe you should at least let him get into office before you judge him in the role.

[normiss 898]

Such short memories some have.

[ryoder 1,590]

quade

If you can't see the parallels between the way Trump runs his family business and say, the Kim family has set up North Korea, or the KSA works, or Cuba . . .

There is a great book you should read, "The Dictator's Handbook."
https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/1610391845

There are even "free" audio book copies on YouTube if you just want to listen to the first chapter or two as a reference. Although you should probably really buy a copy if you listen to much more than that.
https://youtu.be/G04pINsjagg

Read it and draw your own conclusions about a possible Trump future.

I'm not saying it's going to happen, only that based on Trump's actions, it certainly looks like a possibility.

I'll be darned.
That must be what inspired a couple CGP Grey videos I watched recently:

Rules for Rulers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs
Death & Dynasties: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ig_qpNfXHIU

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[quade 4]

Royreader8812

No objection to destroying multiple countries, detaining people without charge and warrant . . .

Uh . . . I'm curious . . . where were you on March 20, 2003?

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[rushmc 23]

normiss

Such short memories some have.

Yes

I remember many Obama supporters chastizing some here who posted stories about Obama finding a way to stay in the White house???

Now quade is worried about Trump staying?

WAFJ!

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

quade

With most Presidents we have a reasonable expectation of continuity of how our government works and overall checks and balances. For instance, some people were concerned Obama would take away their guns, but the House and Senate could keep that at bay and the fears were essentially unfounded. There is no such assurance Trump can be held in check should he decide to do something crazy.

Trump is a different President than we've ever seen in the US. He brazenly makes the moves one would expect from the president of a banana republic. His appointments are either fellow billionaires or former military loyalists.

I'm uncertain he'd willingly relinquish control even if impeached. There is nothing in his history to suggest he has any respect for the US traditional norms as they pertain to the office.

It is the uncertainty that is the worst part of this right now, and unfortunately it's also the least worse part of the potential he has at his disposal. I can see the potential for civil war in the US. Is that an irrational thing to consider? Possibly with other Presidents, I'm not 100% certain though it's an irrational thought under Trump...

...Of course, the other end of the spectrum would be to ask the question if Trump (and his family) would ever leave the Oval -- ever. As in, somehow becomes "dictator for life" and the US sees a rule of multiple generations.

I think with Trump we now have to consider that literally anything is possible.

I don't doubt that he would like to do much of that. I only somewhat doubt that he would try some of that.

But would he/could he get away with it?

I don't know. I don't think so.

Don't forget how many Rs were against him from the start. They are on his side (sort of anyway) because he won, but I don't think it would take a whole lot to get them to go back to being against him.

And if he was impeached and tried to stay, there would be real trouble. One thing to remember is that he has a very well armed and well trained group around him. Their loyalty is to the office, not the man. A few (or more than a few) bad choices in the past don't totally remove their professional credentials.
If Congress properly impeached him for good cause and he refused, I see a pretty good chance of the Secret Service arresting him.

He doesn't have the backing of the military, or even the solid backing of a majority of the public.

There's also the reality of the job. Being President is hard. Look at the toll it takes on the man in office.
My most likely scenario is that Trump finds out how difficult it is to get stuff done. He can't dictate to Congress, he can't dictate to foreign countries, he can't even dictate to the public.

He may well get frustrated, go bonkers one too many times on Twitter and finally quit.

The surveillance and harassment capabilities of the office are vast, as you noted. But even the IRS can't investigate 10 or 20 million people at once. Nor can the FBI, or even local cops (who likely wouldn't do Trumps bidding anyway).
The "widespreadness" of modern communications will effectively prevent any serious crackdown on detractors.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[wmw999 2,589]

I'm with you. While I'm all about risk mitigation, I try to limit it to the more likely risks, and just of independence of look at the less loo likely ones periodically to see if they're developing.

I don't see Trump lasting more than a term unless he does a better job than most anticipate. He might resign or be impeached, but I think the likelihood is low.

The biggest risk I see in some ways is already being realized, with truth being the narrative you build, rather than a distillation of what's left after analysis. Just as science is about trying to disprove stuff, reality isn't really about selecting the facts that support your story. There are enough facts out there to support any story; the information age has made it easy to retrieve them. Reality is better determined by questioning what you think is right than by "proving" it.

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[Royreader8812 0]

Quote

Uh . . . I'm curious . . . where were you on March 20, 2003?

Where I was is irrelevant, what I was doing, not so much.

I was shaking my head in disdain, as much as I was on the 19th of March 2011.

[quade 4]

Royreader8812

Quote

Uh . . . I'm curious . . . where were you on March 20, 2003?

Where I was is irrelevant, what I was doing, not so much.

I was shaking my head in disdain, as much as I was on the 19th of March 2011.

And yet you seemed to have completely glossed over the facts of it.

In your previous post you lumped all the blame on the Presidents of the Democratic Party while completely ignoring the Republican involvement.

Your selective history is mockable.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[normiss 898]

We should rename the Republican party to the Obstructionist party.

[quade 4]

normiss

We should rename the Republican party to the Obstructionist party.

Additionally, we should give it a tag line, "the Party that stole the Supreme Court."

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[Royreader8812 0]

Quote

And yet you seemed to have completely glossed over the facts of it.

In your previous post you lumped all the blame on the Presidents of the Democratic Party while completely ignoring the Republican involvement.

Your selective history is mockable

.

Lol, unlike most, I don't fall for the left right paradigm.

Each individual is to be judged on their own merits and pitfalls.

Obama, with the assistance of Clinton, has only exasperated any problems that their predecessors started. The money used for quantitative easing could have solved so many problems. Instead it went to the rich, the debt was never liquidated and nobody went to jail. That was just the start of his reign. The wars still go on, with troops replaced with expensive mercenaries... countries in ruin and Europe in a shambles...

I am not a big fan of Trump, but he is still an unknown quantity in politics.

If he can outsmart career politicians in an election, against all odds, then what he can do once in office is yet to be determined.

As much as anyone tries to imply that they know what he will do, they don't.

I'll grab the popcorn while you guys argue about it.

[quade 4]

Royreader8812

Lol, unlike most, I don't fall for the left right paradigm.

Your words here don't match your posting history.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[normiss 898]

You seem to think POTUS has more power than they actually do.

[quade 4]

normiss

You seem to think POTUS has more power than they actually do.

Well, currently does.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver