A public apology to jcd11235

[quade 4]

You were right. I was wrong.

I said he had zero chance of winning.

OMG. WTF. I have never been more wrong about anything in my entire life.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[gowlerk 2,274]

I feel your pain.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[Elisha 1]

quade

You were right. I was wrong.

I said he had zero chance of winning.

OMG. WTF. I have never been more wrong about anything in my entire life.

I haven't really followed all the back and forth between posters, but kudos for owning up.

[mirage62 0]

If this is the worse mistake you made in your life.... Get over it.

If you can't close your eyes and at least HOPE that the person your country elected does a good job - hope and change.

You need to get over that to.

Trump wasn't my pick but he is our president elect

Kevin Keenan is my hero, a double FUP, he does so much with so little

[quade 4]

You seem to be confused. This had nothing to do with my support, or lack of, for Trump. Simply what I felt were the odds of him being able to win given his lack of experience and other factors. jcd11235 and I had a few go 'rounds about it. I was wrong and he, as it turns out was right. Nothing more or less. Nothing you've mentioned is relevant to the conversation here.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[brenthutch 444]

Quade, you are a stand up guy. You were as wrong as I was with regard to the outcome of this election. I might disagree with you on a multitude of issues, but your admission speaks to your integrity.

[nolhtairt 0]

Quade - when in doubt, check with THIS guy. He has never been wrong in 30 years of presidential elections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-elections-correctly-is-doubling-down-on-a-trump-win/

[quade 4]

nolhtairt

Quade - when in doubt, check with THIS guy. He has never been wrong in 30 years of presidential elections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-elections-correctly-is-doubling-down-on-a-trump-win/

There is an inherent danger in believing in outliers who have had success in predicting things. The danger is believing they actually know what they're talking about when the fact is it's entirely possible to reproduce similar results by coin flips.

Let's say you were looking for genius predictors of future Presidential elections and wanted to do that by taping into the mystical powers of the universe and, as previously stated, flipping a coin.

We gather 1000 potential genius experts and have them flip coins and record their results. Heads is D, Tails is R. Each person is given 8 blindfolded flips.

What are the odds at least 1 person in that group of 1000 will have mystically predicted the winner of all 8 races? Well, actually they're pretty good 1:256 is what we'd expect by random chance. We'd probably expect 3 (plus or minus 1) people in that group of 1000 to have correctly predicted just using coin flips.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[nolhtairt 0]

quade

***Quade - when in doubt, check with THIS guy. He has never been wrong in 30 years of presidential elections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-elections-correctly-is-doubling-down-on-a-trump-win/

There is an inherent danger in believing in outliers who have had success in predicting things. The danger is believing they actually know what they're talking about when the fact is it's entirely possible to reproduce similar results by coin flips.

Let's say you were looking for genius predictors of future Presidential elections and wanted to do that by taping into the mystical powers of the universe and, as previously stated, flipping a coin.

We gather 1000 potential genius experts and have them flip coins and record their results. Heads is D, Tails is R. Each person is given 8 blindfolded flips.

What are the odds at least 1 person in that group of 1000 will have mystically predicted the winner of all 8 races? Well, actually they're pretty good 1:256 is what we'd expect by random chance. We'd probably expect 3 (plus or minus 1) people in that group of 100 to have correctly predicted just using coin flips.

Yeah but, the professor actually studies political climates and trends and makes his predictions based on those studies, rather than flipping a coin. He even predicted Gore would win the popular vote but Bush would win the electoral vote.

[quade 4]

nolhtairt

Yeah but, the professor actually studies political climates and trends and makes his predictions based on those studies, rather than flipping a coin. He even predicted Gore would win the popular vote but Bush would win the electoral vote.

And until this last month Nate Silver was considered a indisputable genius too.

Just sayin'.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[nolhtairt 0]

quade

***Yeah but, the professor actually studies political climates and trends and makes his predictions based on those studies, rather than flipping a coin. He even predicted Gore would win the popular vote but Bush would win the electoral vote.

And until this last month Nate Silver was considered a indisputable genius too.

Just sayin'.

Ah, well, go ahead and wallow in your liberal tears then.

[quade 4]

nolhtairt

******Yeah but, the professor actually studies political climates and trends and makes his predictions based on those studies, rather than flipping a coin. He even predicted Gore would win the popular vote but Bush would win the electoral vote.

And until this last month Nate Silver was considered a indisputable genius too.

Just sayin'.

Ah, well, go ahead and wallow in your liberal tears then.

There's nothing "liberal" about the above. Zero. Not everything has to be viewed through the political lens.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[ryoder 1,590]

quade

There's nothing "liberal" about the above. Zero. Not everything has to be viewed through the political lens.

What???
Burn the heretic!

BTW Michael Moore has been predicting a Trump win for months: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_g-OP290UE

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[JerryBaumchen 1,466]

Hi nolhtairt,

Quote

Ah, well, go ahead and wallow in your liberal tears then.

I think it is a sad day when someone disagrees with a premise that is presented and is then subjected to name calling.

Jerry Baumchen

[nolhtairt 0]

JerryBaumchen

Hi nolhtairt,

Quote

Ah, well, go ahead and wallow in your liberal tears then.

I think it is a sad day when someone disagrees with a premise that is presented and is then subjected to name calling.

Jerry Baumchen

Yeah well, I tried to help him see the light. Sorry if he can't help himself.

[bgrozev 3]

nolhtairt

******Quade - when in doubt, check with THIS guy. He has never been wrong in 30 years of presidential elections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-elections-correctly-is-doubling-down-on-a-trump-win/

There is an inherent danger in believing in outliers who have had success in predicting things. The danger is believing they actually know what they're talking about when the fact is it's entirely possible to reproduce similar results by coin flips.

Let's say you were looking for genius predictors of future Presidential elections and wanted to do that by taping into the mystical powers of the universe and, as previously stated, flipping a coin.

We gather 1000 potential genius experts and have them flip coins and record their results. Heads is D, Tails is R. Each person is given 8 blindfolded flips.

What are the odds at least 1 person in that group of 1000 will have mystically predicted the winner of all 8 races? Well, actually they're pretty good 1:256 is what we'd expect by random chance. We'd probably expect 3 (plus or minus 1) people in that group of 100 to have correctly predicted just using coin flips.

Yeah but, the professor actually studies political climates and trends and makes his predictions based on those studies, rather than flipping a coin. He even predicted Gore would win the popular vote but Bush would win the electoral vote.

To summarize your argument: Out of all the people who make predictions based on studies, we should trust this one guy, because he has been right so far. And we know that he hasn't been just lucky because he makes predictions based on studies.

[brenthutch 444]

"Trust, but verify"

[nolhtairt 0]

bgrozev

To summarize your argument: Out of all the people who make predictions based on studies, we should trust this one guy, because he has been right so far. And we know that he hasn't been just lucky because he makes predictions based on studies.

Hey, a 100% rate over 30 years is a helluva track record. Just saying.

[nolhtairt 0]

Another prediction from the professor I mentioned earlier....

Says Trump will be impeached. Thinks the Republican controlled Congress will prefer Pence be the President because of Trump's unpredictability.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%e2%80%98prediction-professor%e2%80%99-who-called-trump%e2%80%99s-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ar-AAkbsjd?li=BBnb7Kz

[Faicon9493 141]

quade

You were right. I was wrong.

I said he had zero chance of winning.

OMG. WTF. I have never been more wrong about anything in my entire life.

I felt this way too. Read this article by Bill Moyers. It might give you a perspective about what happened.

http://billmoyers.com/story/farewell-america/