Third party and electoral votes

[PhreeZone 20]

Anyone taking odds on a Third party in Utah actually being able to get the electoral vote for the first time since 1968? 538 has it currently at 2.4% of happening. Surprisingly it does not look like it might be Johnson but instead another third party candidate that has the best chance of this happening.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/

Two recent polls:
Clinton 28% Trump 34% Johnson 9% McMullin 20%
Clinton 26% Trump 26% Johnson 14% McMullin 22%

Not bad since he is only on the ballot in a few states and has no money to spend at all since he was a last minute candidate.

Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

[rehmwa 2]

PhreeZone

Anyone taking odds on a Third party in Utah actually being able to get the electoral vote for the first time since 1968? 538 has it currently at 2.4% of happening. Surprisingly it does not look like it might be Johnson but instead another third party candidate that has the best chance of this happening.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/

Two recent polls:
Clinton 28% Trump 34% Johnson 9% McMullin 20%
Clinton 26% Trump 26% Johnson 14% McMullin 22%

Not bad since he is only on the ballot in a few states and has no money to spend at all since he was a last minute candidate.

I really do hope it's an electoral bust and it has to go to the House.

This will put the entire 2-party stranglehold in the public light. A Rep house:

1 - CAN'T pick Hillary, that's the antithesis of what the angst stands for - I agree

2 - CAN'T pick Trump, he's so incredibly, publicly, horrific, that they'll lose more of their constituency than they keep. It'll ruin careers.

3 - CAN'T pick anyone from a 3rd party - that would destroy the 2 party, back room, REAL stranglehold of all these insiders splitting up the pie for themselves


it'll be amazing to see how they interpret the least damage a House pick would create

I honestly think that even a Rep house might still pick Hillary. As a Trump presidency would destroy the party, and a 3rd party pick would eventually destroy the 3-party system. But picking the 'other' guy (other is only for the public, they are all in the same team behind closed doors) - would allow business as usual and they can return to stalement and obstruction - something the public puts up with.



one thing, they could pick Gary or someone else - they could gently mock him, and block him at all stages and ride it out for 4 years

they could pick Trump and just completely pull his teeth and he'd be a paper president and a side show - it would make everyone else look good - Dems and Reps would oppose him

picking Hillary really is the biggest chance for serious damage. Reps would oppose (stay on script), but if Dems get in charge, she'd get a rubber stamp. that's a bit scary (like Ebola is a bit of the sniffles).

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[Elisha 1]

And unless I missed the discussion in another thread, people are trying a similar thing with Bernie in Vermont...albeit as a write-in since he's not on the ballot.

[quade 4]

I don't see any third party candidate getting any electoral votes in this cycle. I think the third party candidate protest votes are offset by the number of people who "can't waste their vote." I think at worst they can lower the popular vote totals for the two major candidates, but not by enough to actually get a third party win.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[PhreeZone 20]

At this point I think the Libertarians are just trying to get 5% of the popular vote to free them up in terms of getting federal funding for the next election cycle and reimbursement for funds spent this year on certain items.

Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

[quade 4]

Sounds reasonable, but wasn't the question asked. ;)

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[rehmwa 2]

quade

Sounds reasonable, but wasn't the question asked. ;)

I agree with you (about it unlikely for them to get any electoral votes) and I hope we're both wrong

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[dudeman17 355]

rehmwa

I really do hope it's an electoral bust and it has to go to the House.

This will put the entire 2-party stranglehold in the public light. A Rep house:

1 - CAN'T pick Hillary, that's the antithesis of what the angst stands for - I agree

2 - CAN'T pick Trump, he's so incredibly, publicly, horrific, that they'll lose more of their constituency than they keep. It'll ruin careers.

3 - CAN'T pick anyone from a 3rd party - that would destroy the 2 party, back room, REAL stranglehold of all these insiders splitting up the pie for themselves


it'll be amazing to see how they interpret the least damage a House pick would create

Another outside possibility is, they could pick Trump, find a reason to impeach him, and end up with Pence.

[rehmwa 2]

dudeman17

Another outside possibility is, they could pick Trump, find a reason to impeach him, and end up with Pence.

At least Hillary went with the time honored tradition of picking a running mate that might even be worse than her....

Trump didn't really have that option.

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[wmw999 2,589]

And a ding ding ding for keeping the Ayn Rand types in check,too

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[wmw999 2,589]

Ok, i'll admit that I haven't been paying enough attention to the veeps. What makes Kaine so bad? I have some understanding of why Pence wouldn't be ideal from my point of view, but the main thing I remember about Kaine is his statement that in his job as public servant, the law trumps his personal views (examples of death penalty and abortion given)

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)