How to misinterpret climate change research

[billvon 3,132]

A quick case study from SciAm:
=============================
How to Misinterpret Climate Change Research

Research into the cooling impact of aerosols sends climate contrarians into a tailspin
April 23, 2015


The particles, known as aerosols, are a significant wild card in our planet's climate, rivaled only by clouds.

Slivers of dust float in the upper atmosphere, scattering the sun's rays back into space and cooling the planet in some places. In other places, the particles warm the planet.

The equivocation has meant that the particles, known as aerosols, are a significant wild card in our planet's climate, rivaled only by clouds. So it was arguably not surprising that a study on aerosols would receive public attention.

But it was not the type of attention that the study author, Bjorn Stevens, a climatologist and director at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, was seeking. His work has been portrayed by conservative news outlets and blogs as undermining the theory of human-caused global warming. Red lights lit up. "New Climate Paper Gives Global Warming Alarmists 'One Helluva Beating,'" Fox News declared.

In the months since the study was published, Stevens has been peppered with emails from schoolteachers and laypeople asking him, broadly speaking, whether climate change is indeed something to worry about. That brought the normally reticent scientist, who says his aim is not to convince anyone of anything, into the public sphere.

. . . .

Lewis' blog post prompted conservative publications to crow that global warming is not a major threat. Stevens was inundated with email.

Soon after, he took the unusual step, for a climate scientist, of issuing a press release to correct the misconceptions. Lewis had used an extremely rudimentary, some would even say flawed, climate model to derive his estimates, Stevens said.

Narrowing climate sensitivity is challenging since the measure includes, and therefore compounds, the uncertainty inherent in aerosols, clouds and other phenomena. Different methods can give different results.

. . .

Stevens said his study is something to be mulled over, but it does not call into question man-made global warming.

That's what he said in his press release, as well.

"I continue to believe that warming of Earth's surface temperatures from rising concentrations of greenhouse gases carries risks that society must take seriously," he wrote, "even if we are lucky and (as my work seems to suggest) the most catastrophic warming scenarios are a bit less likely."
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http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-misinterpret-climate-change-research/

[BIGUN 1,503]

So what are your thoughts on this, Bill?

The message I receive is - to view it as something serious, but perhaps a step back is in order?

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[kallend 2,175]

BIGUN

So what are your thoughts on this, Bill?

The message I receive is - to view it as something serious, but perhaps a step back is in order?

The misinterpretation even made its way here.

www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?do=post_view_flat;post=4718266;so=ASC;sb=post_latest_reply;#4718266


Funny thing is, when it was pointed out, later in the same thread, that it was misinterpreted, it suddenly became "bad science".

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[BIGUN 1,503]

Well, it doesn't take a scientist to realize that if we continue to dump fossil fuel emissions in the air, chemicals in our waters, pump fracking waste water into the earth, that mother nature is going to have her revenge.

https://hereandnow.wbur.org/2015/04/22/fracking-oklahoma-earthquakes

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[Amazon 7]

BIGUN

Well, it doesn't take a scientist to realize that if we continue to dump fossil fuel emissions in the air, chemicals in our waters, pump fracking waste water into the earth, that mother nature is going to have her revenge.

https://hereandnow.wbur.org/2015/04/22/fracking-oklahoma-earthquakes

But by then the billionaires will be richer... and who really cares how many of the little people are dying of cancer or have no water that is drinkable and the water can't be used to irrigate the food crops that feed millions.That is if they could even get the food crops to pollinate because all the bees who do that work are dead because of the neonicotinoids in and on the plants.

Humans for the most part are not being good stewards of the planet we have been given as a home.

[kallend 2,175]

BIGUN

Well, it doesn't take a scientist to realize that if we continue to dump fossil fuel emissions in the air, chemicals in our waters, pump fracking waste water into the earth, that mother nature is going to have her revenge.

https://hereandnow.wbur.org/2015/04/22/fracking-oklahoma-earthquakes

Hmmm. I wonder why so many GOP candidates go out of their way to proclaim "I'm not a scientist".

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[BIGUN 1,503]

kallend

***Well, it doesn't take a scientist to realize that if we continue to dump fossil fuel emissions in the air, chemicals in our waters, pump fracking waste water into the earth, that mother nature is going to have her revenge.

https://hereandnow.wbur.org/2015/04/22/fracking-oklahoma-earthquakes

Hmmm. I wonder why so many GOP candidates go out of their way to proclaim "I'm not a scientist".

Not sure I get your point. I'm a member of the GOP, but that doesn't mean that I don't know my boundaries and am receptive to credible information.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[wmw999 2,600]

That's because being a member of the GOP is one facet of you, rather than the defining characteristic against which you measure everything.

Thanks

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[lawrocket 3]

kallend

***Well, it doesn't take a scientist to realize that if we continue to dump fossil fuel emissions in the air, chemicals in our waters, pump fracking waste water into the earth, that mother nature is going to have her revenge.

https://hereandnow.wbur.org/2015/04/22/fracking-oklahoma-earthquakes

Hmmm. I wonder why so many GOP candidates go out of their way to proclaim "I'm not a scientist".

Because they are not scientists? Do they say this in response to a question or do they show up at a press conference and say, "I just wanted to tell you all that I am not a scientist. Thank you?"


What is fascinating is that the aerosol effect HAS been lessened. This is interesting to me, because for years I believed that the effects of aerosols were being underestimated, which was a large cause of the warming pause.

http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=3614318#3614318

Another piece of the puzzle that leaves me scratching my head. What the hell is going on with this settled science?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[BIGUN 1,503]

Thanks, Wendy

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[rushmc 23]

Seeing how the alarists have been misinterpreting to nealy 30 years, they should now recognize this when they see it

Anyway

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3052926/Our-climate-models-WRONG-Global-warming-slowed-recent-changes-natural-variability-says-study.html

Quote

Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are down to ‘natural variability’, says study
Duke University study looked at 1,000 years of temperature records
It compared it to the most severe emissions scenarios by the IPCC
Found that natural variability can slow or speed the rate of warming
These 'climate wiggles' were not properly accounted for in IPCC report

And we all know that Duke University is a haven for deniers

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 2,175]

rushmc

Seeing how the alarists have been misinterpreting to nealy 30 years, they should now recognize this when they see it

Anyway

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3052926/Our-climate-models-WRONG-Global-warming-slowed-recent-changes-natural-variability-says-study.html

Quote

Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are down to ‘natural variability’, says study
Duke University study looked at 1,000 years of temperature records
It compared it to the most severe emissions scenarios by the IPCC
Found that natural variability can slow or speed the rate of warming
These 'climate wiggles' were not properly accounted for in IPCC report

And we all know that Duke University is a haven for deniers

What, no UFO stories in the Daily Mail?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 23]

kallend

***Seeing how the alarists have been misinterpreting to nealy 30 years, they should now recognize this when they see it

Anyway

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3052926/Our-climate-models-WRONG-Global-warming-slowed-recent-changes-natural-variability-says-study.html

Quote

Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are down to ‘natural variability’, says study
Duke University study looked at 1,000 years of temperature records
It compared it to the most severe emissions scenarios by the IPCC
Found that natural variability can slow or speed the rate of warming
These 'climate wiggles' were not properly accounted for in IPCC report

And we all know that Duke University is a haven for deniers

What, no UFO stories in the Daily Mail?

No commenton what Duke University say. imagine that

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 2,175]

rushmc

******Seeing how the alarists have been misinterpreting to nealy 30 years, they should now recognize this when they see it

Anyway

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3052926/Our-climate-models-WRONG-Global-warming-slowed-recent-changes-natural-variability-says-study.html

Quote

Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are down to ‘natural variability’, says study
Duke University study looked at 1,000 years of temperature records
It compared it to the most severe emissions scenarios by the IPCC
Found that natural variability can slow or speed the rate of warming
These 'climate wiggles' were not properly accounted for in IPCC report

And we all know that Duke University is a haven for deniers

What, no UFO stories in the Daily Mail?

No commenton what Duke University say. imagine that

You did not post anything from Duke University. Just hearsay from a "newspaper" with the credibility of the National Enquirer.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 23]

The report was about info from a Duke University study

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 2,175]

rushmc

The report was about info from a Duke University study

There's a reason hearsay is not allowed as evidence.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 23]

https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/global-warming-more-moderate-worst-case-models

So changes in climate have sped up and slowed down in the past

Go figure

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 23]

But you do not give a fuck about truth
You prove that with every post you make

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 2,175]

rushmc

https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/global-warming-more-moderate-worst-case-models

So changes in climate have sped up and slowed down in the past

Go figure

Indeed they have. Over the millennia. And species thrived or died out as they did so.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 23]

kallend

***https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/global-warming-more-moderate-worst-case-models

So changes in climate have sped up and slowed down in the past

Go figure

Indeed they have. Over the millennia. And species thrived or died out as they did so.

And man had nothing to do with it
Funny thing about nature and climate huh...

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 2,175]

rushmc

******https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/global-warming-more-moderate-worst-case-models

So changes in climate have sped up and slowed down in the past

Go figure

Indeed they have. Over the millennia. And species thrived or died out as they did so.

And man had nothing to do with it
Funny thing about nature and climate huh...

Sometimes it's hard to tell if you are Type 1, Type 2, or Type 3. Your posts are so inconsistent and garbled.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Quote

And man had nothing to do with it

Is your argument that because climate changed in the past without the influence of man, man cannot have an influence on climate?

[rushmc 23]

SkyDekker

Quote

And man had nothing to do with it

Is your argument that because climate changed in the past without the influence of man, man cannot have an influence on climate?

Some have made the argument here that the climate is now changing at an unprecidented rate (and man is the cause)
That argument now appears to be false according to Duke University research

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 23]

kallend

*********https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/global-warming-more-moderate-worst-case-models

So changes in climate have sped up and slowed down in the past

Go figure

Indeed they have. Over the millennia. And species thrived or died out as they did so.

And man had nothing to do with it
Funny thing about nature and climate huh...

Sometimes it's hard to tell if you are Type 1, Type 2, or Type 3. Your posts are so inconsistent and garbled.

ANYONE who differs from you would be a Type Correct person

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Quote

That argument now appears to be false according to Duke University research

So is that science settled? The science that Duke University used.

Why is that more settled than the science indicating something different? Why is that science not yet settled?

Your "belief" in science seems to be based on whether you agree with the executive summary.