How much climate change would be happening . . .

[turtlespeed 226]

If there were no humans here on earth?

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[JohnnyMarko 1]

What if we lived in a world where there weren't hypothetical questions?

[SkyDekker 1,465]

turtlespeed

If there were no humans here on earth?

Depends on who much wood a woodchuck would chuck.

[quade 4]

turtlespeed

If there were no humans here on earth?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_past_1000_years

Compare relative flatness pre and post industrial revolution. Global population levels also track quite well.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[turtlespeed 226]

quade

***If there were no humans here on earth?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_past_1000_years

Compare relative flatness pre and post industrial revolution. Global population levels also track quite well.

So we are about .25 degrees higher tan we were 1000 years ago.

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[quade 4]

turtlespeed

So we are about .25 degrees higher tan we were 1000 years ago.

Do you know the amount of temperature change required to turn ice into liquid?

0.25° change is a huge amount of change on a global level. Further, the worse it the situation gets, the situation multiplies on itself and becomes worse still.

I know it's difficult for some people to understand this, but the amount of temperature change in a single lifetime isn't nearly as important as the amount of change for the next 300 years. Sure, it's never going to matter to you personally, but it's incredibly short sighted to use that as a guide.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[turtlespeed 226]

quade

***So we are about .25 degrees higher tan we were 1000 years ago.

Do you know the amount of temperature change required to turn ice into liquid?

Well, considering that you don't have to have any change for water to evaporate . . . what, at this point, does it really matter anyway?

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[quade 4]

turtlespeed

what, at this point, does it really matter anyway?

Incredibly short sighted. Seriously.

Yes, it matters.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[lawrocket 3]

quade

***So we are about .25 degrees higher tan we were 1000 years ago.

Do you know the amount of temperature change required to turn ice into liquid?

0.25° change is a huge amount of change on a global level. Further, the worse it the situation gets, the situation multiplies on itself and becomes worse still.

I know it's difficult for some people to understand this, but the amount of temperature change in a single lifetime isn't nearly as important as the amount of change for the next 300 years. Sure, it's never going to matter to you personally, but it's incredibly short sighted to use that as a guide.

Paul: we've had huge temperature changes in a single lifetime. In the past. Look up the Younger Dryas. We're talking about global average temperatures rising 15 degrees F over the period of five years. Then tanking 20 degrees when the ice sheets collapsed. Then rapidly increasing again.

It does make a huge difference on the planetary makeup. And the past thousand years is NOTHING compared to the not so distant past. Humans found a way to survive it. As did flora and fauna as spruce forests turned into pine. From the state of New York north, there was nothing but ice that changed into nothing. And whole forests sprang forth while entire ecosystems flooded.

This is why I get dumbfounded at the whole idea that it hasn't happenes before. It's antiscience and anti history. Science: here's this effect. My hypothesis is it wouldn't happen if man didn't industrialize.
Are there other explanations?
No.
Has it happened before?
Yes.
Was it as extreme as this?
Yes.
Was man around then?
Yes.
Was man industrialized?
No.
So there's another explanation besides man caused this.

Which is science. Rule out other reasonable explanations. When there isn't another plausible explanation then you're onto something. Limiting to the past thousand years? Why?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Anvilbrother 0]

A lot especially if this data is true. Underwater volcanoes...
http://www.smnweekly.com/climate-change-linked-to-underwater-volcano-activity-in-new-studies/14130/

Quote

Sea level fluctuations driven by changes in the climate over the last million years have been linked with the geography of the seafloor, according to not one but two new scientific studies.

The authors of both studies have made the suggestion that underwater volcanic activity was influenced by ice ages in the past. With long chains of underwater volcanoes run for such long swathes of seafloor – around 37,000 miles of it to be exact – when these volcanoes erupt they may be dumping enough carbon dioxide gas into the oceans to help skew the temperature of the planet, the authors aded.

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[quade 4]

What you fail to take into account is impact of climate change on a small number of humans spread throughout the globe and over very long periods of time and the current and considerably larger amount of humans and what is forecast to be a relatively rapid change.

It's not that ALL humans will fade from existence, but there will be massive changes in food production and water supplies. Places which are currently viable for crop production will become unsuitable. The same can not be said with any certainly in the opposite direction.

Will some humans survive? Yes.
Will this lead to global civilization instabilities? Well, that's what our own military planners currently think.

Will it be as bad as a Mad Max movie? Maybe.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[lawrocket 3]

Are you suggesting that climate change of 15 degrees over five years was easier for our caveman ancestors to deal with that a couple degrees Celsius over a hundred years for modern societies? Seriously? The entire North American ice al collapsing in a decade and sea level rising a couple hundred feet was easier that what even the most alarmist prediction says?

Yes, there will be adaptation. Kinda like how we've adapted to prevent the planet from killing us by building jones and roads and water storage and electrical generAtion and distribution and hydrocarbons and stuff. To help us live.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[rhaig 0]

quade

***what, at this point, does it really matter anyway?

Incredibly short sighted. Seriously.

Yes, it matters.
Tell that to Hillary. (yes, I do believe that was a direct callback to Hillary's quote)

--
Rob

[wmw999 2,589]

For survival as a species, no. For impact to life as we've grown comfortable with, and the possibility of violence because of degraded living conditions, I'd bet it could get extremely ugly. Maybe not for well-off people in climates that are currently on the cooler side, but it's kind of tacky to say "fuck them I've got mine."

Now this analysis is based on minutes of thought and research, so take it with that in mind

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

lawrocket

Are you suggesting that climate change of 15 degrees over five years was easier for our caveman ancestors to deal with that a couple degrees Celsius over a hundred years for modern societies? Seriously? The entire North American ice al collapsing in a decade and sea level rising a couple hundred feet was easier that what even the most alarmist prediction says?

Yes, there will be adaptation. Kinda like how we've adapted to prevent the planet from killing us by building jones and roads and water storage and electrical generAtion and distribution and hydrocarbons and stuff. To help us live.

No. Lots and lots of our "caveman ancestors" died.

Complete species went extinct.

But back then there weren't 6 billion cavemen around to fight over limited resources and land space.

If we see enough temp rise, it's possible India and Africa will become uninhabitable.

Do you think those billions of people are just going to sit there and die?
Or maybe try to move to more habitable lands?

That are currently occupied by people who probably wouldn't be terribly welcoming.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[kallend 2,150]

lawrocket

Are you suggesting that climate change of 15 degrees over five years was easier for our caveman ancestors to deal with that a couple degrees Celsius over a hundred years for modern societies? Seriously?

You have no idea of the effect of climate change on "caveman ancestors", since they left no records. Easier for nomadic and semi-nomadic peoples than for our city dwellers with complex infrastructures that take decades to create.

What happened to the people of Chaco Canyon? Maybe they just moved to the Rio Grande valley when the climate changed.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[brenthutch 444]

wolfriverjoe

***Are you suggesting that climate change of 15 degrees over five years was easier for our caveman ancestors to deal with that a couple degrees Celsius over a hundred years for modern societies? Seriously? The entire North American ice al collapsing in a decade and sea level rising a couple hundred feet was easier that what even the most alarmist prediction says?

Yes, there will be adaptation. Kinda like how we've adapted to prevent the planet from killing us by building jones and roads and water storage and electrical generAtion and distribution and hydrocarbons and stuff. To help us live.

No. Lots and lots of our "caveman ancestors" died.


I am pretty sure that all of them did.

[lawrocket 3]

re: having no idea of the effect on ancestors because they left no records.

Good point. But for some reason, people think they know what the effect will be on our posterity, who have also left no records. But I think we can get a better sense of living conditions then instead of living conditions in 100 years. Uuy

John: would you say that betting on the past gives better odds than betting on the future? I'd rather bet on the past.

Those complex infrastructures you mentioned were created because people found out that if they stayed in one place and grew food and animals they tended to do better than being nomadic hunter gatherers. And with big cities and modern transportation it doesn't matter where food is grown. It matters that the food can get there. Another of the ingenious developments people made.

I'm not taking a position of right or wrong. I am taking a position of fact or speculation. I am speculating that a modern person on an ice sheet has an easier time surviving than a person even a century ago. And that person would live longer than a person 10k years ago.

That's why the quickest way to ravage, say, New York City, would be to suddenly cut off carbon based fuels. No coal or fuel oil or gasoline would mean no power, no running water, no food. And then people would see what an easy time nomads had.

I don't think you've thought it through. People stopped being nomads because it was easier to stay put. They engineered solutions for survival. And that there are a few billion more people around indicates that they've been pretty successful.

One final aside. We've had climate change refugees fairly recently. Read the works of John Steinbeck. The Grapes of Wrath is a fine example of what people did when extreme weather hit. Yes, they migrated. It was tough. Amazing to think what CO2 did back then. Caused the Dust Bowl. All because of SUVs

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[lawrocket 3]

wolfriverjoe

***Are you suggesting that climate change of 15 degrees over five years was easier for our caveman ancestors to deal with that a couple degrees Celsius over a hundred years for modern societies? Seriously? The entire North American ice al collapsing in a decade and sea level rising a couple hundred feet was easier that what even the most alarmist prediction says?

Yes, there will be adaptation. Kinda like how we've adapted to prevent the planet from killing us by building jones and roads and water storage and electrical generAtion and distribution and hydrocarbons and stuff. To help us live.

No. Lots and lots of our "caveman ancestors" died.

Complete species went extinct.

But back then there weren't 6 billion cavemen around to fight over limited resources and land space.

If we see enough temp rise, it's possible India and Africa will become uninhabitable.

Do you think those billions of people are just going to sit there and die?
Or maybe try to move to more habitable lands?

That are currently occupied by people who probably wouldn't be terribly welcoming.

What would a CO2 warmed world look like? Question: what is the hottest major city in the US? By this I mean the highest daily mean temperature. Many would think Phoenix or Las Vegas because of the extreme heat they get.

Those people would be wrong. A warmed world would more closely resemble the hottest major city in the U.S., which is Miami, Florida. It's mean daily temp is the highest in the country. AGW will not affect the daytime temps as much as nighttime temps under the theory because it controls radiative cooling.

Which is why the focus on "extreme weather" is a joke. The suggestion that India would be uninhabitable. Look at hotter places like Jakarta or Bangkok. Want a hot city? Hong Kong. Hong Kong may be what Mumbai ends up like. People never mention Hong Kong for heat. Yet it is densely populated.

I lok at probabilities. The probability is that over the next century or five the earth and the people on it will be just fine. We will adapt. Maybe oranges will be grown in Georgia and peaches in Virginia. Probably not, but i'll gladly keep my eye on it

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[turtlespeed 226]

rhaig

******what, at this point, does it really matter anyway?

Incredibly short sighted. Seriously.

Yes, it matters.
Tell that to Hillary. (yes, I do believe that was a direct callback to Hillary's quote)


Yes. You are correct. It was from memory, so may not be an exact quote.

But to the point . . . someone said that it would affect people and theirs lives and taking of resources, and maybe that needs to happen.

Nature will find a way.

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[kallend 2,150]

lawrocket

******Are you suggesting that climate change of 15 degrees over five years was easier for our caveman ancestors to deal with that a couple degrees Celsius over a hundred years for modern societies? Seriously? The entire North American ice al collapsing in a decade and sea level rising a couple hundred feet was easier that what even the most alarmist prediction says?

Yes, there will be adaptation. Kinda like how we've adapted to prevent the planet from killing us by building jones and roads and water storage and electrical generAtion and distribution and hydrocarbons and stuff. To help us live.

No. Lots and lots of our "caveman ancestors" died.

Complete species went extinct.

But back then there weren't 6 billion cavemen around to fight over limited resources and land space.

If we see enough temp rise, it's possible India and Africa will become uninhabitable.

Do you think those billions of people are just going to sit there and die?
Or maybe try to move to more habitable lands?

That are currently occupied by people who probably wouldn't be terribly welcoming.

What would a CO2 warmed world look like?
...
...
...

Nice way to miss the point completely.

It isn't human comfort that will make a difference. It's the effect on crops, diseases, wildlife range, sea level, precipitation, etc. We have one city, NOLA, that is essentially below sea level now and we saw what a problem that was.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

I get that. I also challenge it. Crop yields have been increasing. I've seen reports that fish are increasing their ranges. Is that bad? The problem we're having is humans introducing invasive species elsewhere. That's anthropogenic


We are having problems with places below sea level. As far as I know there haven't been any additions to that list. When the levees break and out Sacramento under 30 feet of water it also won't be climate that caused it. It'll be the earth re establishing what previously existed. I hope it doesn't happen but Those levees have been there for 150 years meaning the water returning will be a return and not something new.

As far as diseases go, we're seeing diseases making a comeback because of climate change. MeSles, mumps. Look at the dramatic spike in malaria the last forty to fifty years in places like Sri Lanka. Look at malaria's history in North America. Thus far we're doing a pretty good job of controlling or even eradicating diseases. I can see this pattern continuing.

I previously set some specific benchmarks. Let's keep an eye . But let's not keep repeating the same old sky is falling stuff that we saw with Ehrlich and innumerable others.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[rushmc 23]

I know you believe humans have some identifiable effect
and you know I highly doubt that
So, consider what the alarmist have to do to try and keep this narrative alive

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11395516/The-fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html

Quote

When future generations look back on the global-warming scare of the past 30 years, nothing will shock them more than the extent to which the official temperature records – on which the entire panic ultimately rested – were systematically “adjusted” to show the Earth as having warmed much more than the actual data justified.


Two weeks ago, under the headline “How we are being tricked by flawed data on global warming”, I wrote about Paul Homewood, who, on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog, had checked the published temperature graphs for three weather stations in Paraguay against the temperatures that had originally been recorded. In each instance, the actual trend of 60 years of data had been dramatically reversed, so that a cooling trend was changed to one that showed a marked warming.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[lawrocket 3]

I really think the Paraguay stuff is overly blown. While I can see the reason for doubts and calling into question, I also think the data adjustments are defensible. Obviously, there is reason to question adjustments elsewhere (like Central Park being adjusted. That doesn't make sense to me because that's an environment that really hasn't changed in well over a century) but as a whole I think that there is a valid reason for the adjustments and themselves are defensible. Assumptions used can be challenged but the process looks legit and consistent.

Quote

When future generations look back on the global-warming scare of the past 30 years, nothing will shock them more than the extent to which the official temperature records – on which the entire panic ultimately rested – were systematically “adjusted” to show the Earth as having warmed much more than the actual data justified.


Two weeks ago, under the headline “How we are being tricked by flawed data on global warming”, I wrote about Paul Homewood, who, on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog, had checked the published temperature graphs for three weather stations in Paraguay against the temperatures that had originally been recorded. In each instance, the actual trend of 60 years of data had been dramatically reversed, so that a cooling trend was changed to one that showed a marked warming.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Andy9o8 2]

Quote

You have no idea of the effect of climate change on "caveman ancestors", since they left no records.

https://www.google.com/search?q=cave+paintings&client=firefox-a&hs=7Bb&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&channel=nts&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=kz_aVIvtGKi_sQTp7ICQDg&ved=0CEoQsAQ&biw=1080&bih=780