Computer models, chaos, selection bias and politics of fear

[lawrocket 3]

Phe great blizzard in NYC turned out to be some heavy snow. Go east of NYC 50 or 100 miles and it came close. But, no cigar in NYC. The blizzard joined police in turning the back to De Blasio.

What happened? Meteorology is an art as well as a science. But they rely heavily on computer models. There are a few to choose from. Ever notice how weather.com's forecast can differ from accuweather, weatherunderground, weatherbug, weatherbell and the like? This is because different models have somehat different results. The meteorologists see all those models and, using their judgement, pick out the one that will be best. Sometimes they take pieces from several.

The European model (for clarity I'll call it that) has been pretty impressive and accurate lately. The US's own GFS model hasn't been as good, but like any weather model is constantly updated. The National Weather Service actually ignored its on model in favor of the European one. Result was that the NWS model was more accurate. It happens. Weather forecasting is imprecise. This is the reality of physics and nature. Weather is chaotic and there are limits to what can be predicted with it.

Give a thumbs up to a meteorologist. They really are doing the best they can and they are pretty damned close 99 percent of the time.

The Weather Channel and Fox News were really at the front end of lowering the prediction for snowfall. Last night, the weather channel took NYC off of the blizzard warning list (blizzard means snow and winds in excess of 35 mph, I believe). Fox News yesterday afternoon was lowering the prediction to as few as 12 inches.

Now, when the Weather Channel lowered its prediction, it was met with some outrage and demands to change it back or provide a detailed explanation. I'll cite Slate Meteorology/Climate writer Eric Holthaus. To Holthaus's credit, he apologized this morning and somehat praised the weather channel not just for its decision, but for having the boldness to publish it against the grain.

Twitter and the blogosphere were loaded with people talking about the expected horrors - and the reason why this storm was happening. Plenty of people said that climate change was to blame. Plenty still are insistent that a strong blizzard is evidence of climate change. Inductive reasoning.

"Strong snowstorm. Be careful." That doesn't generate ratings. "Worst snowstorm in NYC history a possibility. It may be worse in Boston, LI and Connecticut." "We haven't seen anything like this." That gets attention. Fear works. Good, coldhard fear works. 1888 can go out the window. 1978 can go away. Even 2006 is to be forgotten.

Fear also gives political opportunity. And government is more than willing to exploit it. We had Mayor De Blasio institute a curfew and close the roads to all traffic - vehicle and bicycles. Only "necessary" vehicles, like police, ambulances, plows, etc., were allowed on the roads. Yes, bicycles. All in the name of public protection.really lobbying hard about how the best we have says it's going to happen and these steps are all necessary to save the population by threat of summons and $300 fines for being out on a bicycle.

Governor Cuomo was similarly bold. He matched the rhetoric and took the step of shutting don the subway system. This was just accepted as fine. What we now know is that he didn't actually shut it down. Subways trains were running, ostensibly to keep the tracks clear of snow. It's just that passengers were not allowed to ride on them.

And now there is some fury. Hey, I actually see some logic in keeping roads cleared for emergency vehicles. I'd see some logic in running no trains, but I see no logic about the decision to run trains with no passengers.

To the South, Chris Christie also banned travel. To the north, Connecticut Gov. Malloy banned travel, as did RI Gov. Raimondo and Mass. Gov Baker.

Again, I don't necessarily disagree ith the travel bans except that I think that saying, "please stay off the road" is sensible. Banning road travel outright? And keeping people off of running subways is politics at its worst.

We saw the blizzard used as an event to be exploited. Others are exloiting it as proof of climate change. Others are exploiting it as proof that climate change isn't happening (similarly silly). Politicians exploited is as a way to seriously go hardcore on a temporary police state. And the People went along with it.

What's the scary event? What is the biggest risk? The one you don't know about. We people have a remarkable ability to mitigate. To adapt. This outside of government force. I'd like to see information put out there. "Looks like we might get hit hard. Don't risk wrecking your car. Even walking will probably suck. Need to get somewhere? Walk. Subways will be running but if this is bad then you may get stranded on a subway. Weigh the risks and benefits before going anywhere."

And above all, recognize the limits of computer models and the persons who make, use and interpret them. This goes for meteorology or climate. Overstatement of risks that don't pan out lead to misapprehension of the risks that will. Effective communication for Americans would usually involve putting out the information, risks, probabilities, etc. While it might not get a big rise out of people, people won't be jaded.

And there are a few million people who will be jaded next time.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Andy9o8 3]

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This post contains adult content

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Oh, I see it. He told people to stay off the long, pulsating subway, but it plunged into the tunnel and kept coming, and coming and coming!

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there are a few million people who will be jaded next time.

Yeh. People will always bitch, no matter what. How many times have we seen the consequences of city govts under-prepared for blizzards & stuff? People up north, where I grew up, know what blizzards can do. If now they want to act all pissed about this like it was Chicken Little (which it wasn't), that's on them.

[kallend 2,175]

I seem to recall that it's better to think you see a tiger in the tall grass when there isn't one, than to fail to see the tiger that is in the tall grass.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 23]

kallend

I seem to recall that it's better to think you see a tiger in the tall grass when there isn't one, than to fail to see the tiger that is in the tall grass.

In your view then, the solution would be to burn the grass down

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 2,175]

rushmc

***

I seem to recall that it's better to think you see a tiger in the tall grass when there isn't one, than to fail to see the tiger that is in the tall grass.

In your view then, the solution would be to burn the grass down

Project much?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 23]

kallend

******

I seem to recall that it's better to think you see a tiger in the tall grass when there isn't one, than to fail to see the tiger that is in the tall grass.

In your view then, the solution would be to burn the grass down

Project much?


Took you this long to come up with this???

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[lawrocket 3]

kallend

I seem to recall that it's better to think you see a tiger in the tall grass when there isn't one, than to fail to see the tiger that is in the tall grass.

True. And it's best to know what's actually there. Being wrong is okay. But uncertainties should be stated.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[BIGUN 1,503]

You're right about the models. As you know, I worked in Disaster Response for ten years. Spent beaucoup time in the Emergency Operations Centers (EOC) of Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma. etc. for Katrina, Wilma, Rita, Irene, etc. etc.

Let's use the hurricanes as an example. Depending on which grid square the TS hits as it comes across the Atlantic; there can be as many as 34 different track projections. As it moves across and changes grid squares, so too do the tracking models.

Virtually every NOAA and other agency's meteorologist's will be collaborating and discussing behind the scenes. In each case, there is a decision point that need be met with a "best guess" so as to communicate with the public.

The blizzard of 2011 that hit Tulsa was actually being tracked from..... Fiji Yet, the decision point was made with Arizona as the time to communicate with the public.

And, even with the "Mother of all Storms" (Katrina) - the public didn't listen. In almost every hurricane, I heard the same thing from the public... "Oh, we made it through the Hurricane of XXXX just fine." Then, when they don't make it through the next one "just fine" they blame the government for "not communicating" the nature of the storm enough.

You know how many times I wanted to scream in someone's ear. "You fucking twit!!! They told you to evacuate and YOU CHOSE not to!!!"

So, this time, some teeth were put in the warnings. And the model changed - for the better. What if they had downgraded the storm and as soon as they did, the next grid square it changed for the worse" Once you communicate the warnings, you can't unravel and re-ravel it. You'd be "chasing the bubble." (An old mortarman's term for slinging your mortar tubes leveling and declination bubbles past the mark - back and forth).

Personally, I'm glad to see the local level communicating so well. You know how many times the local government has waited until they can determine if the storm will have enough financial damage so as to meet the federal threshold for for FEMA assistance? Lots of times. But, not this time. They were in front of it and not right at or past the line of human safety.

The public has no idea how much, how long, nor the resources to infrastructure it takes to get ready. I'll give you two examples and then shut up.

1. The number of major hospitals and nursing homes (101 in Florida alone) you need to get fuel to for their emergency generator supply and to calculate the re-order points during and after the storm and to ensure a continuous fuel supply. Then, let's talk food stores. For how long?

2. Pump stations - little buildings all over a city that require generators attached, fueled, and again; continuous fuel supply (128 in Virginia Beach). These little buildings are what keeps the city's chit going that way - instead of this way.

It was better to have communicated too much and have nothing happen; than not communicate until it was too late and have something happen. People are going to bitch. But, if they're bitchin; they're alive.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[lawrocket 3]

Oh, absolutely. The model was really accurate but didn't get the gradient. Snowfall total gradients were something like an extra inch every three miles east. The storm was 50 miles east of where they thought it would be. That made a huge difference to NYC.

People often do not heed warnings. That is their right. I remember listening to sports radio before Katrina rolled in an they were telling people to get the hell out. Tens of thousands did not. I have a problem with police state. The fact that subway trains were running was startling to me. Had never been shut down for a snow event before. The response was in excess of anything previously and turned out to be unnecessary.

This is where the political issue sets in. Making people prisoners to keep them safe just doesn't sound like something I'd support.

Ps - your job must have been awesome.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,175]

BIGUN

As you know, I worked in Disaster Response for ten years. Spent beaucoup time in the Emergency Operations Centers (EOC) of Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma. etc. for Katrina, Wilma, Rita, Irene, etc. etc.

Cool! My wife (an MD) was a volunteer medic in NOLA after Katrina. She has some interesting (aka horror) stories about that time.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

lawrocket

Oh, absolutely. The model was really accurate but didn't get the gradient. Snowfall total gradients were something like an extra inch every three miles east. The storm was 50 miles east of where they thought it would be. That made a huge difference to NYC.

People often do not heed warnings. That is their right. I remember listening to sports radio before Katrina rolled in an they were telling people to get the hell out. Tens of thousands did not. I have a problem with police state. The fact that subway trains were running was startling to me. Had never been shut down for a snow event before. The response was in excess of anything previously and turned out to be unnecessary.

This is where the political issue sets in. Making people prisoners to keep them safe just doesn't sound like something I'd support.

Ps - your job must have been awesome.

So when does a prediction based on a projection/model go from good policy to fear mongering?

[BIGUN 1,503]

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I have a problem with police state ... Making people prisoners to keep them safe just doesn't sound like something I'd support.

I understand and to a certain extent agree. But, I have also wept for the child who's father made that decision to stay. The father lived. The child did not. He reported to the news, "It was the government's fault for not stressing the importance of getting out." Then, he ended himself.

It was an awesome job. The helping people during a horrible time and their gratitude of which there is no greater satisfaction. During Gustav/Ike, I needed a haircut and some home versus institutionalized cooking so I went to the black part of town. Got a haircut from an older black man. Good-Old Fashioned haircut. Shaved neck with the witch-hazel burn slap and talcum powder around the neck line. Another black guy shining my boots.

Stood up. "No charge, sir." Whaddaya mean no charge? We know what you been doing to help the folks of Louisiana. I reached into my wallet and he again said, "No Charge, sir." I replied, "I understand, Sir, But, you didn't say anything about not being able to tip" and handed him a fifty. He smiled. Down there; it's called "lagniappe."

And, it's often said that lagniappe will "get you far."

He also recommended the hole in the wall deep south cooking that was the best chicken fried chicken and white gravy a man has ever tasted. He'd called her to let her know I was coming. My sweet tea and cornbread never dried up.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[Anvilbrother 0]

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He also recommended the hole in the wall deep south cooking that was the best chicken fried chicken and white gravy a man has ever tasted. He'd called her to let her know I was coming. My sweet tea and cornbread never dried up.

Cut it out, your making me hungry!

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[lawrocket 3]

When things are used for some benefit. Like the shutting down of the subway that wasn't really shut down, just wasn't going to carry passengers.

Here's an example. "Potentially deadly wind chills with fresh snow in New England Friday through Sunday. Use caution outdoors." Not fear mongering.

"Deadly wind chills with fresh snow in New England Friday through Sunday. outdoor travel prohibited. Do not underestimate how cold it will be, or you'll be issued a summons." That juts gives another level

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

lawrocket

When things are used for some benefit. Like the shutting down of the subway that wasn't really shut down, just wasn't going to carry passengers.

Here's an example. "Potentially deadly wind chills with fresh snow in New England Friday through Sunday. Use caution outdoors." Not fear mongering.

"Deadly wind chills with fresh snow in New England Friday through Sunday. outdoor travel prohibited. Do not underestimate how cold it will be, or you'll be issued a summons." That juts gives another level

I was thinking more of evacuation advisories.

We project this storm could be bad enough that unless you leave you could very well die.

We project that unless we do something about this global warming, eventually sea levels could rise high enough.

The first one is likely seen as good policy in light of a major threat projection. The second one is seen as fear mongering.

(never mind that shutting down the subway seems like the stupidest thing to do in a snowstorm)

[Anvilbrother 0]

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never mind that shutting down the subway seems like the stupidest thing to do in a snowstorm

If your not some subway transportation expert on their particular system you would probably think this, but im sure the people making the calls are more informed than you are about the reasons to shut it down.

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[SkyDekker 1,465]

Anvilbrother

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never mind that shutting down the subway seems like the stupidest thing to do in a snowstorm

If your not some subway transportation expert on their particular system you would probably think this, but im sure the people making the calls are more informed than you are about the reasons to shut it down.

I am sure, which is why it continued to run.

You may want to look up the meaning of the word "seem".

[Anvilbrother 0]

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You may want to look up the meaning of the word "seem".

NO.

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[SkyDekker 1,465]

Anvilbrother

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You may want to look up the meaning of the word "seem".

NO.

Guess ignorance truly is bliss.

[Anvilbrother 0]

My comment was a general comment to anyone that questions why ____city has done____ in some sort of an event. They are generally the experts of their infrastructure. In the case of New Orleans they said GTFO its a god damn bowl that sits underwater, if the pumps fail or a levee breaks your fucked. It wasnt about your particular situation, but about people questioning them in general. Carry on ooh mighty keyboard warrior.

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Anvilbrother

My comment was a general comment to anyone that questions why ____city has done____ in some sort of an event. They are generally the experts of their infrastructure. In the case of New Orleans they said GTFO its a god damn bowl that sits underwater, if the pumps fail or a levee breaks your fucked. It wasnt about your particular situation, but about people questioning them in general. Carry on ooh mighty keyboard warrior.

Which is exactly why I phrased it with the word seem.

It indicates that with my knowledge, that is my opinion. It leaves the door open to: "it makes sence when you consider this, this or this".

Which makes responding with: "unless you are an expert, fuck off", so silly.

[Anvilbrother 0]

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unless you are an expert, fuck off

totally what I meant

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[lawrocket 3]

SkyDekker

***When things are used for some benefit. Like the shutting down of the subway that wasn't really shut down, just wasn't going to carry passengers.

Here's an example. "Potentially deadly wind chills with fresh snow in New England Friday through Sunday. Use caution outdoors." Not fear mongering.

"Deadly wind chills with fresh snow in New England Friday through Sunday. outdoor travel prohibited. Do not underestimate how cold it will be, or you'll be issued a summons." That juts gives another level

I was thinking more of evacuation advisories.

We project this storm could be bad enough that unless you leave you could very well die.

We project that unless we do something about this global warming, eventually sea levels could rise high enough.

The first one is likely seen as good policy in light of a major threat projection. The second one is seen as fear mongering.

(never mind that shutting down the subway seems like the stupidest thing to do in a snowstorm)

You've gotten to what I was hinting. Projections can be off and often are. The uncertainties should get disclosed. Remember Irene? I think it was Irene that had the standard low lying evacuations, preparation for storm surge, winds, etc. Some people were screaming that attention needed to be paid inland since the north track of the storm meant heavy rainfall in the NW sector of the storm. this was ignored. When the track turned west hell broke loose on western New England as it got hammered with rains and river flooding.

These are the unknown risks. Telling people to head for the hills can be worse when the hills are where to biggest risk is.

And yes the Climate change projections are implicated in this. Changing whole civilizations (let's face it - modern civilization and carbon energy are interrelated) on the basis of projections that are nowhere near certain can be seen to be pretty foolish by many.

I think the sea level is rising And will continue. Regardless of carbon being put into the atmosphere. i can't help but think carbon mitigation to stop climate change is like antibiotics to treat the flu. Or like chemo to treat the flu.

Versus planning for adaptation. If we were serious about cooling the world we would have done it. Sulfur aerosols. We aren't

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[rehmwa 2]

SkyDekker

***

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You may want to look up the meaning of the word "seem".

NO.

Guess ignorance truly is bliss.

If it was, .........
.
.
.
How would they know?

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[lawrocket 3]

SkyDekker

***My comment was a general comment to anyone that questions why ____city has done____ in some sort of an event. They are generally the experts of their infrastructure. In the case of New Orleans they said GTFO its a god damn bowl that sits underwater, if the pumps fail or a levee breaks your fucked. It wasnt about your particular situation, but about people questioning them in general. Carry on ooh mighty keyboard warrior.

Which is exactly why I phrased it with the word seem.

It indicates that with my knowledge, that is my opinion. It leaves the door open to: "it makes sence when you consider this, this or this".

Which makes responding with: "unless you are an expert, fuck off", so silly.

I myself don't like the whole "unless you are an expert, fuck off" thing because it cuts off discussion. Most experts I've come across on a number of different subjects welcome opinions and questions. Mainly because most real experts aren't in the business of telling you what to do. They give uos Nd downs and make suggestions and try to slant but usually understand different perspectives on things and know that in just about everything that reasonable minds can differ.

It's why I like so many on here with whom I disagree. Guys like skydekker give me a different perspective.

My wife is hotter than your wife.