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brenthutch

Global warming traps scientists in ice

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kallend

***That is but another explanation. Explanations are numbering in the dozens now. Each with different proposed mechanisms. Why is everyone out there trying to explain why Antarctic sea ice is increasing? Answer: because it is absolutely contrary to the models. Predictions were totally the opposite. Arctic is generally trending with what was expected. But Antarctic sea ice is showing a definite limit to climate models.

I can admit that I am finding greater simple elegance to your previous suggestion that the coastal seawater is being diluted by increased runoff. Reason is because the mechanism makes sense. We all know most of Antarctica is a desert because most of it is so cold that the air can't hold moisture to precipitate. An increase of temperature will result in an increase of precipitation. It doesn't snow at minus 40. It does at minus 20.

The effect is increased accretion of snow/ice. As well as increased ablation. Leading to more runoff that is not necessarily older ice.

There is even a study suggesting that climate change is causing an increase of rainfall in the Southern Ocean, further diluting the surface (the atmosphere transferring water from northern to southern areas).

All pretty interesting. And unpredicted. The science looks far from settled.



I think you are confusing change itself with an indicator of change. Sea ice extent is just an indicator, it is not climate change.

What would be a contrarian indicator? Cold? Warm? More ice? Less ice? More storms? Less storms? What would it take to falsify the AGW theory? (A question you have refused to address BTW)

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brenthutch

******That is but another explanation. Explanations are numbering in the dozens now. Each with different proposed mechanisms. Why is everyone out there trying to explain why Antarctic sea ice is increasing? Answer: because it is absolutely contrary to the models. Predictions were totally the opposite. Arctic is generally trending with what was expected. But Antarctic sea ice is showing a definite limit to climate models.

I can admit that I am finding greater simple elegance to your previous suggestion that the coastal seawater is being diluted by increased runoff. Reason is because the mechanism makes sense. We all know most of Antarctica is a desert because most of it is so cold that the air can't hold moisture to precipitate. An increase of temperature will result in an increase of precipitation. It doesn't snow at minus 40. It does at minus 20.

The effect is increased accretion of snow/ice. As well as increased ablation. Leading to more runoff that is not necessarily older ice.

There is even a study suggesting that climate change is causing an increase of rainfall in the Southern Ocean, further diluting the surface (the atmosphere transferring water from northern to southern areas).

All pretty interesting. And unpredicted. The science looks far from settled.




I think you are confusing change itself with an indicator of change. Sea ice extent is just an indicator, it is not climate change.

What would be a contrarian indicator? Cold? Warm? More ice? Less ice? More storms? Less storms? What would it take to falsify the AGW theory? (A question you have refused to address BTW)

I guess we are still waiting for him to answer.:P
I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

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lawrocket

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I think you are confusing change itself with an indicator of change. Sea ice extent is just an indicator, it is not climate change.



True. An indicator of change doesn't mean change itself.



I suspect salinity has a lot to do with it.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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‘There have been at least nine separate explanations for the standstill in global warming’ – 1) Low Solar Activity; 2) Oceans Ate Warming; 3) Chinese Coal Use; 4) Montreal Protocol; 5) Readjusted past temps to claim ‘pause’ never existed 6) Volcanoes 7) Decline in Water Vapor 8) Pacific trade winds 9) ‘Coincidence’

If there is no hiatus, why are the warmist trying so hard to explain it.

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"The models had predicted that the average global surface temperature would increase by 0.21 of a degree Celsius over this period, but they turned out to be off by a factor of four, Zwiers and his colleagues wrote. In reality, the average temperature has edged up only 0.05 of a degree Celsius over that time — which in a statistical sense is not significantly different from zero."

Global warming 'hiatus' puts climate change scientists on the spot

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/sep/22/science/la-sci-climate-change-uncertainty-20130923

Kallend, apparently "climate scientists" would disagree with your assessment that there is no hiatus.

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brenthutch

"The models had predicted that the average global surface temperature would increase by 0.21 of a degree Celsius over this period, but they turned out to be off by a factor of four, Zwiers and his colleagues wrote. In reality, the average temperature has edged up only 0.05 of a degree Celsius over that time — which in a statistical sense is not significantly different from zero."

Global warming 'hiatus' puts climate change scientists on the spot

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/sep/22/science/la-sci-climate-change-uncertainty-20130923

Kallend, apparently "climate scientists" would disagree with your assessment that there is no hiatus.



Tell it to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences:

news.yahoo.com/global-warming-slowdown-likely-brief-u-uk-science-205849334.html

A "slowdown" is not a hiatus.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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kallend

***"The models had predicted that the average global surface temperature would increase by 0.21 of a degree Celsius over this period, but they turned out to be off by a factor of four, Zwiers and his colleagues wrote. In reality, the average temperature has edged up only 0.05 of a degree Celsius over that time — which in a statistical sense is not significantly different from zero."

Global warming 'hiatus' puts climate change scientists on the spot

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/sep/22/science/la-sci-climate-change-uncertainty-20130923

Kallend, apparently "climate scientists" would disagree with your assessment that there is no hiatus.



Tell it to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences:

news.yahoo.com/global-warming-slowdown-likely-brief-u-uk-science-205849334.html

A "slowdown" is not a hiatus.

The National Academy of Science told it to you, however as usual, you were not listening.

From the article you linked to:
"The warming hiatus may be caused by shifts in the oceans that are absorbing more heat from the atmosphere, the report said. Other studies suggest that sun-dimming volcanic eruptions or a lower output from the sun may contribute."

Reading comprehension?

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brenthutch

******"The models had predicted that the average global surface temperature would increase by 0.21 of a degree Celsius over this period, but they turned out to be off by a factor of four, Zwiers and his colleagues wrote. In reality, the average temperature has edged up only 0.05 of a degree Celsius over that time — which in a statistical sense is not significantly different from zero."

Global warming 'hiatus' puts climate change scientists on the spot

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/sep/22/science/la-sci-climate-change-uncertainty-20130923

Kallend, apparently "climate scientists" would disagree with your assessment that there is no hiatus.



Tell it to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences:

news.yahoo.com/global-warming-slowdown-likely-brief-u-uk-science-205849334.html

A "slowdown" is not a hiatus.

The National Academy of Science told it to you, however as usual, you were not listening.

From the article you linked to:
"The warming hiatus may be caused by shifts in the oceans that are absorbing more heat from the atmosphere, the report said. Other studies suggest that sun-dimming volcanic eruptions or a lower output from the sun may contribute."

Reading comprehension?

And from the article YOU linked:


“The overwhelming evidence is that the Southern Ocean is warming,”

Reading comprehension back at you.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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Cherry picked. To give full context one would also have to include: "especially perplexing" "it is a puzzle to scientists" "no one seems to have a conclusive answer" "haven't seen a clear explanation" "this modeled Antarctic sea ice is at odds with observation" and "model defying sea ice increase" All of which were in the article I linked to.


I think you had best stay on the porch.

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kallend

***So then you concede that there is a 'hiatus'?



How can there be a hiatus if the water is getting warmer?

Because the focus has been on the lower troposphere.

Please view this graph of the sea surface temperature. [Url]http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/sea-surface-temp.html[/url]

Note the "hiatus" in the sea surface temperature? The one from the peak in 1997-98? Yep. That's the global SST.

Three temperatures matter for global climate: (1) lower stratosphere/ troposphere; (2) land surface; and (3) SST. Rain, wind, drought, flood, heat, cold, etc are not affected by anything else.

So "water is still getting warmer" doesn't mean anything if the heat is sequestered where it doesn't affect anything (because the laws of thermodynamics say it can't). It's like saying that shit is getting stinkier, so it's bad for the body. As long as it stays in the bowel, it really doesn't matter how badly it stinks because it won't affect anything.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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It’s an intriguing theory – that recently has gotten legs: the melting Arctic – spurred by global warming – is causing the weather’s steering flow, the jet stream, to become more extreme. This extreme jet stream – rather than zipping around the world in a straight circle (right below) – is more frequently meandering off course (left below) and getting stuck in place, sending bitter, prolonged blasts of cold southward and conversely, see-sawing strong heat domes northward. It’s a fascinating paradox: global warming as the culprit for bone-chilling cold........

Now for the rest of the story,


“It’s an interesting idea, but alternative observational analyses and simulations with climate models have not confirmed the hypothesis, and we do not
view the theoretical arguments underlying it as compelling,”
write five preeminent climate scientists (John Wallace, Isaac Held, David Thompson, Kevin Trenberth, and John Walsh) in a recent letter published in Science Magazine.

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[Reply]...simulations with climate models have not confirmed the hypothesis, and we do not view the theoretical arguments underlying it as compelling,



Climate models say it isn't happening? Isn't that evidence that it IS happening?


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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lawrocket

******So then you concede that there is a 'hiatus'?



How can there be a hiatus if the water is getting warmer?

Because the focus has been on the lower troposphere.

.

"Global" includes a lot more than the lower troposphere.

PS you can get medication for your constipation. It WILL come out in the end.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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No shit?

Issue: if the world is getting warmer, but as a matter of physics it makes no difference at all to terrestrial life, then what's the point of doing anything about it?

As I mentioned earlier, assuming this to be true, hasn't nature just mitigated any possible damage by sequestering the excess heat away? I mean, let's look at science here instead of dogma. The scientific implications of putting all that energy in a huge place with massive specific heat.

This isn't even a new concept. Recall the literature of 10 years ago. It takes a LONG time for the ocean to warm. Experiment: put a pot of water on an electric stove. Due to specific heat, it takes a lot of energy to raise its temperature. Then there is lag between heating the bottom of the water and mixing with the top through vertical currents or deep horizontal motions.

It takes decades just to heat the top couple of thousand feet. And centuries/millenia to heat the rest of the depths of the ocean and mix. Look at the ocean like a flywheel. The principles of thermal inertia will apply.

This was understood at the early stages of climate science. That's why Siberia was the key test area. Under AGW theory, the place too look for signal with minimum noise is where it is really cold and dry (one in the same when you get to -40) and where there wasn't the influence of the ocean flywheel. Look for warming in the winter. And they found it.

It's why we don't look for evidence of global warming in the oceans. Why we don't look for the dignal of global warming where there is water vapor (which also has thermal inertia).

We look where water isn't. And especially in the winter. Where it's really cold. Which is where they used to look. And they found it. But it hasn't met with the expectations of how much. They've been hoping for more and not seeing it.

So now they look in the place where they knew all along heat goes but doesn't show and they can't get a signal through the noise. The ocean.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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lawrocket

No shit?

Issue: if the world is getting warmer, but as a matter of physics it makes no difference at all to terrestrial life, then what's the point of doing anything about it?



The whole "doing something about it" IS the point. The absence of AGW, would make those windmills look pretty silly, and that is a pill too big for many to swallow. BTW that is why kallend refuses to let us know what it would take to invalidate AGW theory.

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lawrocket

No shit?

Issue: if the world is getting warmer, but as a matter of physics it makes no difference at all to terrestrial life, then what's the point of doing anything about it?



Have I asked anyone to do anything?

The planet doesn't care, and I shall be long dead before the US coastal cities become uninhabitable.

People who live on barrier islands or in cities below sea level get no sympathy from me.

See post #252 of this thread.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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The whole point of the AGW discussion has been about all of the nasty effects on humanity and ways to prevent those. Namely by reducing atmospheric carbon emissions.

So when we have things that don't fit the projections, it turns into evidence of a problem. Because it turns out that there is settled science, but that's not even close to the whole story. Because a computer model is only as good as our understanding of the dynamic processes it simulates. And when the estimated lifetime of a CO2 molecule in the atmosphere is between 25 and 150 years, one can see that a model can certainly have problems with being off by, oh, 800%.

Science advances when predictions are proven wrong. But only so long as those whose predictions are proven wrong are willing to admit it. I'm seeing mounting evidence that the climate community didn't necessarily get it "wrong" so much as they greatly overplayed their hand.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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