Global warming traps scientists in ice

[kallend 2,141]

skeptic <> denier

Believer <> alarmist

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

There's a middle ground, I think.

I believe in the science behind global warming.

I disagree with the politics of how bad things are going to be and how bad they are. I disagree with the idea that we'll get fire and brimstone and floods. So I agree that global arming is real, human activities play a role in it, but that the effect has marginal and I don't see why the effect ont continue to be marginal.

With regard to the state of science and what the science tells us:
[Url]http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Climate%20model%20results/over%20estimate.pdf[/url]

Note that the 97.4% of wrong climate models roughly correlates to the 97% consensus. Yes, this is an opinion/letter and not apparently peer-reviewed. It was also in Nature Climate Change.

Why am having problems with the "science?" Because science is a process. It starts off with a question. Do the background work to understand the processes. Then you construct a hypothesis. Then you test the hypothesis. Then you compare the predictions to observations. And then you communicate the results.

There are, of course, a couple of fields of thought on this. The one we hear from the proponents of the hypothesis that isn't turning out right is, "You don't trash the whole thing because certain parts aren't right. You make changes and retest it." Then there's the other approach (really hammered on by Feynman) who said that if the observations disagree with the predictions then the hypothesis is wrong.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,141]

lawrocket

There's a middle ground, I think.

I believe in the science behind global warming.

I disagree with the politics of how bad things are going to be and how bad they are. I disagree with the idea that we'll get fire and brimstone and floods. So I agree that global arming is real, human activities play a role in it, but that the effect has marginal and I don't see why the effect ont continue to be marginal.

With regard to the state of science and what the science tells us:
[Url]http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Climate%20model%20results/over%20estimate.pdf[/url]

Note that the 97.4% of wrong climate models roughly correlates to the 97% consensus. Yes, this is an opinion/letter and not apparently peer-reviewed. It was also in Nature Climate Change.

Why am having problems with the "science?" Because science is a process. It starts off with a question. Do the background work to understand the processes. Then you construct a hypothesis. Then you test the hypothesis. Then you compare the predictions to observations. And then you communicate the results.

There are, of course, a couple of fields of thought on this. The one we hear from the proponents of the hypothesis that isn't turning out right is, "You don't trash the whole thing because certain parts aren't right. You make changes and retest it." Then there's the other approach (really hammered on by Feynman) who said that if the observations disagree with the predictions then the hypothesis is wrong.

Feynman also clearly believed that, having determined that the hypothesis is wrong, "You don't trash the whole thing because certain parts aren't right. You make changes and retest it."

He was also well aware that not all science is like quantum electrodynamics, testable to 12 significant figures of accuracy.

(I've been reading his books lately).

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kallend 2,141]

lawrocket

Fresno's been in the mid-60s to low-70s for the last 3 or 4 weeks. We should be in mid 50s. Thus, we've been in a heat wave. Kinda weird how many people and plants aren't dying.

So Fresno isn't having the drought? 90% of CA is suffering "severe or extreme" drought.

But just weather, I expect.

www.theatlanticcities.com/politics/2014/01/grim-map-californias-drought/8066/

drought.unl.edu/

California received an average of 7.37 inches of precipitation in 2013, 33 percent of normal, making it the driest year on record.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

kallend

***Fresno's been in the mid-60s to low-70s for the last 3 or 4 weeks. We should be in mid 50s. Thus, we've been in a heat wave. Kinda weird how many people and plants aren't dying.

So Fresno isn't having the drought? 90% of CA is suffering "severe or extreme" drought.

But just weather, I expect.

www.theatlanticcities.com/politics/2014/01/grim-map-californias-drought/8066/

drought.unl.edu/

California received an average of 7.37 inches of precipitation in 2013, 33 percent of normal, making it the driest year on record.

Yes, we are in a drought. This may come as a bit of a shock, but we've actually had droughts before. I remember one that lasted from the mid 80s to the early 90s (it was huge news when the spillway was opened at Lake Cachuma). People were painting their lawns green.

We had a drought in the 40s and 50s. Then in the late 50s another one happened, peaking in 1961. And in 1977, a new snowpack low was reached. For chrissake, the NORM for California is "drought." I live in a desert. We had a drought here that lasted for 5 years until 2011 (when we had the most spectacular Yosemite waterfalls in decades).

This may be a surprise, but the word "drought" actually existed before Reagan took office. Yes, a "drought" is weather. Ironically, John, droughts usually end here when we get an El Nino. (Pull out the garlic and the cross because the word "oscillation" applies here.)

I'm pretty certain this drought will be a lot like that thatpermanent drought in the Southwest that lasted a couple of years.

We need rain, here. No doubt. We need it badly. I could play the dick game and blame cap and trade for it, but we have droughts here. Just like we have floods here.

There's a lot of heat trapped in the ocean that we can't measure or even detect, right? And this heat, which is insulated from the atmosphere, is actually quantum entangled to ensure action at a distance. All that missing trapped heat that we cannot even measure or detect caused this drought.

So here's what we need:

We need that missing heat to show the hell up and warm the north Pacific. http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/ Give us the El Nino we need in order to get the rain we so need. Gaia needs to quit fucking with us and show us all the heat she's stashed away deep in the ocean.

Hopefully this drought won't be one of those 2 century long type droughts like happened here a few hundred years ago.

I'm cracking up at the "just weather, I expect." It's hilarious. Yeah, the driest year since we had rain gauges.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,141]

lawrocket

I'm cracking up at the "just weather, I expect." It's hilarious. Yeah, the driest year since we had rain gauges.

Rain gauge was invented in AD1441.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

Yes. And California had them covering the State by 1442. Our technological leadership was present then, too.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,141]

lawrocket

Yes. And California had them covering the State by 1442. Our technological leadership was present then, too.

I suppose you'd fault Columbus for not coming to America on a 747.

Fact is, you just had the driest year ever recorded in CA. That's not just "weather".

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 23]

kallend

***Yes. And California had them covering the State by 1442. Our technological leadership was present then, too.

I suppose you'd fault Columbus for not coming to America on a 747.

Fact is, you just had the driest year ever recorded in CA. That's not just "weather".

Cool

then the coldest winter ever recorded is not just weather either huh

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[lawrocket 3]

kallend

***Yes. And California had them covering the State by 1442. Our technological leadership was present then, too.

I suppose you'd fault Columbus for not coming to America on a 747.


I was commenting on your assertion that rain gauges were around in 1441. That's all well and good, but if they weren't in California until the 1850s, then it's a pretty fucking useless observation.

The record goes back to 1850 - when Airtwardo was still a kid. That means there hasn't been 500 years for the "500 year storm." (Note: I can only IMAGINE what you'd be writing if California was hit by a storm like that of 1861-1862. A storm even half that size would leave the kallends and Joe Romms of the world orgasming at the thought of evidence for man made climate change.

There is but one important thing for alarmism: a really really short memory.

Quote

Fact is, you just had the driest year ever recorded in CA. That's not just "weather".

Fact is, it's the driest year since electronic databases have been present. My sons have never seen a drier year - this is true. But then, they weren't around for the 200 year drought a few hundred years ago. That was climate. We may be returning to the climate we had before the white man occupied California. Hopefully with the efforts of man-made climate change we can prevent another cycle of nature from fucking us up.

http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=3137610#3137610

Weather is anything short-term. That is, less than 15 years. You've been more than adamant about this - weather is weather and climate is climate.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[lawrocket 3]

Lake Michigan had a bunch of ice in it this winter, but the ice was icier.

Man made climate change makes ice icier, puddles puddlier, mud muddier, air airier, snow snowier, and water waterier.

And the Koch brothers. They need to go.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[rushmc 23]

lawrocket

Lake Michigan had a bunch of ice in it this winter, but the ice was icier.

Man made climate change makes ice icier, puddles puddlier, mud muddier, air airier, snow snowier, and water waterier.

And the Koch brothers. They need to go.

Oh the pain of it all

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 2,141]

lawrocket

******Yes. And California had them covering the State by 1442. Our technological leadership was present then, too.

I suppose you'd fault Columbus for not coming to America on a 747.


I was commenting on your assertion that rain gauges were around in 1441. That's all well and good, but if they weren't in California until the 1850s, then it's a pretty fucking useless observation.

The record goes back to 1850 - .

Weaseling does not become you.

It's the driest year on record. A span of 163 years.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kallend 2,141]

lawrocket

Weather is anything short-term. That is, less than 15 years.

Ummm NO. Weather is changeable from day to day and even hour to hour. Weather forecasts are typically only good for 5 days and if it really matters (like to pilots) then they only give you a few hours.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kelpdiver 2]

kallend

Weaseling does not become you.

It's the driest year on record. A span of 163 years.

you're the weasel here.

We're still quite a ways from the dryness we saw in the late 80s. The rain years in July - July. Last's year rain year wasn't terrible, but was front loaded in Oct/Nov and esp Dec. The house I just bought had mild flooding and runoff issues from the quantity of rain in December. If memory serves, it was a record rain month for San Francisco, with 6.3 inches of rain instead of the usual 2.9. But then the 2013 half was very dry.

And this rain season skipped the fall months and it looks like it will remain that way for at least Jan/Feb. So it is a drought of 14 months and counting. But until it gets to 4 years, it's hardly ground breaking.

[kallend 2,141]

kelpdiver

***
Weaseling does not become you.

It's the driest year on record. A span of 163 years.

you're the weasel here.

We're still quite a ways from the dryness we saw in the late 80s. The rain years in July - July.

drought.unl.edu/

California received an average of 7.37 inches of precipitation in 2013, 33 percent of normal, making it the driest year on record.

Take it up with The National Drought Mitigation Center, I'm sure they'd appreciate your correction of their error.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kelpdiver 2]

kallend

Take it up with The National Drought Mitigation Center, I'm sure they'd appreciate your correction of their error.

they're wrong, yes. In California, the rain year has always been July 1 - June 30th. It wouldn't make sense to use Jan 1 as the end points.

And so are you for continuing to try to assert (at this point in time) that 2013 has any significance. Keep digging a hole.

[lawrocket 3]

I don't know whether the good Prof realizes that we live here and know that we've spent half our lives in drought and we remember how bad they've gotten and how bad they've been. It's a way of life for us.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,141]

lawrocket

I don't know whether the good Prof realizes that we live here and know that we've spent half our lives in drought and we remember how bad they've gotten and how bad they've been. It's a way of life for us.

So has Gov. Brown.

gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=18368

SAN FRANCISCO – With California facing water shortfalls in the driest year in recorded state history, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today proclaimed a State of Emergency and directed state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for these drought conditions.

So now the National Drought Mitigation Center AND the Governor of California are wrong.

Why don't you write and tell them how mistaken they are. I'm sure they'd love to hear from you.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kallend 2,141]

kelpdiver

***
Take it up with The National Drought Mitigation Center, I'm sure they'd appreciate your correction of their error.

they're wrong, yes. In California, the rain year has always been July 1 - June 30th. It wouldn't make sense to use Jan 1 as the end points.

And so are you for continuing to try to assert (at this point in time) that 2013 has any significance. Keep digging a hole.

No need to dig here, we have plenty of fresh clean water.

Write to your governor and tell him to dig the hole.

SAN FRANCISCO January 17, 2014 – With California facing water shortfalls in the driest year in recorded state history, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today proclaimed a State of Emergency and directed state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for these drought conditions.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

It's been so bad that Moonbeams just got around to talking about it a few days ago. Seriously - if it was that bad, why didn't he say something, oh, say three months ago?

He had to be aggressively lobbied to do something. And since he blames global warming, it must be true.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kelpdiver 2]

kallend

Write to your governor and tell him to dig the hole.

SAN FRANCISCO January 17, 2014 – With California facing water shortfalls in the driest year in recorded state history, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today proclaimed a State of Emergency and directed state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for these drought conditions.

I'm looking for the part where he says anything about the water year, here. There's no question that we're low on water, and if we want to marshall out of state resources in time for the spring plantings (where most of the water goes), now is the time you ring the bell.

Living in a mono crop state like Illinois, you have more to lose from this than we do.

[rushmc 23]

Change is coming?

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/european-commission-move-away-from-climate-protection-goals-a-943664.html

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 2,141]

kelpdiver

***
Write to your governor and tell him to dig the hole.

SAN FRANCISCO January 17, 2014 – With California facing water shortfalls in the driest year in recorded state history, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today proclaimed a State of Emergency and directed state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for these drought conditions.

I'm looking for the part where he says anything about the water year, here. There's no question that we're low on water, and if we want to marshall out of state resources in time for the spring plantings (where most of the water goes), now is the time you ring the bell.

Living in a mono crop state like Illinois, you have more to lose from this than we do.

Nice backpedal there.

I'll be retiring in 2 years, not staying in IL. Currently considering NC.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kallend 2,141]

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/13

Global Highlights

The year 2013 ties with 2003 as the fourth warmest year globally since records began in 1880. The annual global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This marks the 37th consecutive year (since 1976) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Currently, the warmest year on record is 2010, which was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above average. Including 2013, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 134-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. Only one year during the 20th century—1998—was warmer than 2013.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.