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brenthutch

Global warming traps scientists in ice

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I think we can all agree that pumping large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere is not a good idea.

How much warming is due to H2O? About 60 degF, IIRC, and without that we wouldn't be here. CO2 is going to add another 2 degF? And that's going to kill us? I'm skeptical.

I'm even more skeptical of any of the solutions being proposed, and funded, by our government. Plus, Al Gore has way too much of his own money in this now to be objective.

The Princeton Plasma Physics Lab (PPPL) is close to fusion ignition. They believe another $30B will get them there. Why isn't this in the news more often? Why aren't we all in on this? This would absolutely change everyone's quality of life on this planet, for the better, and forever.

To reiterate, pumping this much CO2 into the atmosphere as a way of life isn't a good thing, IMO. But, it's not going to kill us. The next doubling of CO2 is going to take generations of living the same way. And that will be another 2 degF.

Where are the adults in this conversation?
We are all engines of karma

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Andy9o8

I've lost track of how many times in your threads people have to issue the reminder that weather is not climate.



Now wonder
Seeing how fast the alarmists will move hither and fro to try and support their lies
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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brenthutch

I just thought it was ironic that a mission to study the effects of global warming on the Antarctic was trapped in ice. Hoisted by their own petard, if you will.



yet they were trapped by ice that broke off and then drifted into a position to block them, so are you sure you didn't misunderstand the situation?

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StreetScooby


How much warming is due to H2O? About 60 degF, IIRC, and without that we wouldn't be here. CO2 is going to add another 2 degF? And that's going to kill us? I'm skeptical.



Kill us literally. Unlikely. OTOH, change the condition such that the earth cannot maintain a 7B population of humans? Quite plausible. We're using resources faster than they are replenished. The planet may be capable of support even more humans if we managed resources better, but we don't. Any drop in the supply would result in substantial deaths or at least quality of life.

The doom scenario that requires the most attention paid is ones that affect plankton growth in the seas. More carbon in the atmosphere means (eventually) more carbon absorbed by the waters, which changes the acidity. Any substantial change in the growth rate of plankton disrupts the entire food chain, as well as oxygen production.

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The Princeton Plasma Physics Lab (PPPL) is close to fusion ignition. They believe another $30B will get them there. Why isn't this in the news more often? Why aren't we all in on this? This would absolutely change everyone's quality of life on this planet, for the better, and forever.



yes, but we've heard this "we're nearly there" before. It will be great, when and if it finally happens.

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Andy9o8

I've lost track of how many times in your threads people have to issue the reminder that weather is not climate.



A couple of thoughts:

(1) See the attached graph of Antarctic sea ice extent on December 28. The trend is higher.

(2) The overall trend of Antarctic sea ice is higher over the last thirty years. It's been above 2 standard deviations all year.

(3) Sea ice isn't exactly "gone one day and 3 meters thick the next." Meteorologists could have said, "um. That path is closed." Or seen, "Hey. We have this high pressure system developing and it's going to push a bunch of ice over at us within the next three or four days. Let's beat it. Now." Anybody can watch "Deadliest Catch" and see that sea ice can be seen and avoided. All you have to do is...

(4) Look out the damned windows! The collective scientific expertise could have been used to say, "Hey. Captain. Our looks at imagery are showing a solid ice field blocking our route. Looking out the window we sure can see it. What say we back off a few miles and figure out what to do?"

(5) I cannot help but think that these scientists are so heavily invested in their belief that sea ice is decresing, thinner, weaker, etc., that they ignored all the raw, unadjusted data that their computers and their their own damned eyes were showing them. Either that or "go fever" seriously affected the judgment of all. This was not a "calculated risk." This was a ship's captain (my blame goes straight to him first) who damned the figurative torpedoes. But it was also several score of experts (was there a more concentrated group of experts anywhere on the planet?) who, at best, remained willfully ignorant of the facts surrounding them - those facts being the subject of their expertise.

(6) They put themselves at risk. The captain put them at risk. And everybody trying to get them out is being put at risk.

(7) The expedition was to be scientific, but recreated another expedition that killed 2 out of the 3 people on it.

(8) This is the Antarctic summer. And they're getting clobbered by sea ice and blizzards. I'm wondering if that ship will be able to get out of the ice this year at all.

I think this is a fine example of a case where weather can be reasonably foreseen on the basis of the known climate. It's not like it's a freak sea ice occurrence. It's not a freak Antarctic blizzard. It's par for the course where they are.


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1) See the attached graph of Antarctic sea ice extent on December 28. The trend is higher.



Source?

BTW, sea ice extent is only one of several measures, but in particular it's only two dimensions out of three. If I were to pour a cup of pancake mix on the table top, it would spread out quite a bit, but I'd be silly to say there's more of it just because it takes up more space in the two dimensional plane of the table.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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[Reply]The doom scenario that requires the most attention paid is ones that affect plankton growth in the seas. More carbon in the atmosphere means (eventually) more carbon absorbed by the waters, which changes the acidity. Any substantial change in the growth rate of plankton disrupts the entire food chain, as well as oxygen production.



This is, of course, assuming that additional CO2 does not mean a feast for plankton, who will photosynthesize the CO2, and sequester it within themselves to either be eaten or die and sink to the bottom of the ocean to decompose. It's the decomposition that sucks the oxygen out of the water.

The situation is a bit more dynamic. Phytoplankton are remarkably greedy with carbon and sequester large volumes of it. I haven't read much of anything on the relationship between carbon fixing organisms and the Revelle factor, but I'm sure there's literature out there.


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lawrocket



(5) I cannot help but think that these scientists are so heavily invested in their belief that sea ice is decresing, thinner, weaker, etc., that they ignored all the raw, unadjusted data that their computers and their their own damned eyes were showing them. Either that or "go fever" seriously affected the judgment of all. This was not a "calculated risk." This was a ship's captain (my blame goes straight to him first) who damned the figurative torpedoes. But it was also several score of experts (was there a more concentrated group of experts anywhere on the planet?) who, at best, remained willfully ignorant of the facts surrounding them - those facts being the subject of their expertise.



Absurdly unlikely since all climate scientists know that Antarctic SEA ice is increasing, while the continental ice is melting. providing fresh water run off into the cold salty ocean where it re-freezes to form sea ice. Salt and water form an eutectic mixture that remains liquid well below 0 degrees C, so fresh water entering the ocean refreezes.

ASIDE: I just got back from Patagonia and visited 3 glaciers there. The Southern Patagonian Ice Field has exhibited retreat on 42 glaciers, while four glaciers were in equilibrium and two advanced during the years between 1944 and now.

Earlier this year I was in Glacier N.P. in Montana. That has lost some 75 glaciers over the past 100 years and ALL its glaciers are retreating.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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lawrocket

This is, of course, assuming that additional CO2 does not mean a feast for plankton, who will ...



The issue here is the assumption the plankton have rapid access to the excess CO2. For the most part, they don't. The plankton who live at the interface between air and ocean might see a bit more, but the vast majority of the ocean's plankton do not exist directly on the surface of the water. For the CO2 to benefit those deeper it will have to have been captured by the water first. This is a function of aeration and temperature. It also requires an enormous amount of human scale time and there is only so much the ocean will be able to absorb. We are quickly reaching that amount now.

Additionally, ocean capture of CO2 causes other problems like an increase in its acidity. Obviously this would have other effects on living things in the ocean.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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(1) So you're saying that the scientists knew that they were getting into a dicey situation?

(2) I recall the ice melt and haven't been able to perform an experiment, as I can't think of how to control the variables;

(3) Do you think that Antarctic sea ice therefore increases in the summer due to the increased melt of Antarctic shelf ice?

(4) Your theory is at odds with the consensus. [Url]http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/warm-ocean-rapidly-melting-antarctic-ice-shelf-from-below/[/url]

Note that NASA itself alleges that the ocean is not freezing runoff. Rather, that the warming sea water is melting the existing ice. This was three months ago, where shelf ice (not one of the land-based ice shelfs) was melting because the sea water was too warm. How is it that sea water is cold enough to freeze fresh water moving in but yet warm enough to melt ice already there? I don't have an answer, but the science apparently isn't settled. Thus you have joined the ranks of the climate skeptic because your theory suggests that the cutting edge research is all wrong. Sea ice cannot be sustained, much less formed, by the increasing ocean temperature. That's what the real scientists say.

(6) The increase in ice increases albedo, thus leading to a positive feedback. Are we reaching a tipping point for snowball southern hemisphere?


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Look - does the CO2 mix or not? I say it does. That CO2 that does not mix with the ocean is not a problem for the ocean. That which does creates acidification and a food source, in which case the ocean captures and sequesters it when the phytoplankton dies and sinks.

There is a relationship. With the acidification happen and kill the plankton before it can be used? Or will the plankton bloom because of it, thus mitigating acidification? Or a mixture of the two?

The O2 depletion is would cause is the biggest problem I see. Dead oceans ain't no fun. But I can think of a better way to sequester carbon than to let diatoms use it, die, and sink to the bottom of the ocean.

It's a lot more complicated than, "the ocean will acidify."


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quade

***It's a lot more complicated than, ...



You're right! So why did you imply it was so simple just plankton would take care of it?

I didn't.

[Quote]The situation is a bit more dynamic. Phytoplankton are remarkably greedy with carbon and sequester large volumes of it. I haven't read much of anything on the relationship between carbon fixing organisms and the Revelle factor, but I'm sure there's literature out there.

I actually said there's stuff involved in the dynamic that I don't know about. I.e. Revelle.

I'm stunned that writing "I haven't read much on..." is now taken to mean I'm saying it's simple. No. There are variables that I don't know how they interplay.

My stated ignorance of the dynamics should be read as "lawrocket admits there are dynamics he doesn't know about" and not lawrocket implies "it was so simple just plankton would take care of it?"


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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Andy9o8

I've lost track of how many times in your threads people have to issue the reminder that weather is not climate.



Y'know, in the year 267 through 293, we had record rainfall, and more hurricanes than ever reported ever, and it was all due to Saturn's retrograde orbit compared to the moon's eclipse.

But . . . hey, that was just weather.:P
I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

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First, and foremost, I'd like to thank you for a rationale reply. You've always been good about that.

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Unlikely. OTOH, change the condition such that the earth cannot maintain a 7B population of humans? Quite plausible.



And how much does "climate/weather" really impact that?

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We're using resources faster than they are replenished.



Agreed. And how much does "climate/weather" really impact that?

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The planet may be capable of support even more humans if we managed resources better, but we don't.



Agreed. How much does US government policy impact that?

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Any drop in the supply would result in substantial deaths or at least quality of life.



In the supply of what?

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The doom scenario that requires the most attention paid is ones that affect plankton growth in the seas. Any substantial change in the growth rate of plankton disrupts the entire food chain, as well as oxygen production.



Agreed, that would be very bad.

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More carbon in the atmosphere means (eventually) more carbon absorbed by the waters, which changes the acidity.



In my understanding, half of the CO2 released is absorbed back into the earth. There are many sinks in that equation, the oceans being a big one. But, the oceans are incredibly large. I'm not saying releasing large amounts of CO2 on a continuing basis is ok. It's not. But, the alternatives being advocated by the US/Western democracies are not going to make a bit of difference in that equation. All that will change is more money out of our pockets, and more control in government hands, IMO.

Nuclear is the only way to go, be it fission or fusion.

Thanks again for a rationale reply.
We are all engines of karma

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lawrocket

(1) So you're saying that the scientists knew that they were getting into a dicey situation?



Quit making with the strawmen.

The captain makes the decisions, not the passengers.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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lawrocket

I've already written I blame the captain first and foremost.



Ha. A fair reading of your post #8 is that, while you did blame him, you didn't blame him first and foremost.

Anyhow, it's never the captain who dies - it's always the nameless crewman in a red shirt.

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