The Nobel Prize’s dumbbell move

[rickjump1 0]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-nobel-prize-for-economics-is-a-farce-2013-10-15 "Arends: Committee awards economists with nearly polar opposite views"

Do your part for global warming: ban beans and hold all popcorn farts.

[kelpdiver 2]

rickjump1

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-nobel-prize-for-economics-is-a-farce-2013-10-15 "Arends: Committee awards economists with nearly polar opposite views"

It's more a reflection that economics as a science - not well fleshed out. Schiller contributed considerably with his notions around bubbles, but market timing continues to be proven a pipe dream. The problem being - you can't just sit on the sideline and wait for your once a decade buying opportunity.

The rational walk theory holds up better - in this world with hyperfast information travel, there are a lot of people waiting to take advantage of market inefficiencies. It doesn't preclude bubbles where too many people get stupid.

[kallend 2,148]

From the article:
My dear friend Stephen Rousseas, a distinguished economist and the former chair of economics at Vassar College, once gave me a typewritten piece of paper containing some remarks Robinson had made at a talk in the mid-1970s. She said the Nobel Prize for economics shouldn’t even exist. It was a joke. Economics, she said, is not a natural science like physics or chemistry. (It’s a social study.)

Indeed. And Alfred Nobel did NOT create the economics prize. It's a phony, added later, and its real title is "Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel"

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rickjump1 0]

kelpdiver

***http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-nobel-prize-for-economics-is-a-farce-2013-10-15 "Arends: Committee awards economists with nearly polar opposite views"

It's more a reflection that economics as a science - not well fleshed out. Schiller contributed considerably with his notions around bubbles, but market timing continues to be proven a pipe dream. The problem being - you can't just sit on the sideline and wait for your once a decade buying opportunity.

The rational walk theory holds up better - in this world with hyperfast information travel, there are a lot of people waiting to take advantage of market inefficiencies. It doesn't preclude bubbles where too many people get stupid."The problem being - you can't just sit on the sideline and wait for your once a decade buying opportunity." Call me stupid, but that's exactly what I'm doing right now. Maybe not exactly ten years, and I'm holding what I have, but I am attempting to "time the market" (on the sidelines). Think I'll die before it happens?
Too many day traders.

Do your part for global warming: ban beans and hold all popcorn farts.

[kelpdiver 2]

rickjump1

Call me stupid, but that's exactly what I'm doing right now. Maybe not exactly ten years, and I'm holding what I have, but I am attempting to "time the market" (on the sidelines). Think I'll die before it happens?
Too many day traders.

You're losing money, both in opportunity cost and due to inflation. That cash is making at best 1%, which gets taxed at your marginal rate.

And that, aside from trying to wait for the bottom (which you really only can see 6 months later), is the problem. Value investing, which I do try to do as well, as been challenging for a while now. Many companies that fall out of favor and sport low P/Es continue to languish. Some are low because the companies suck.