For all of you "chicken little peak oil" types

[brenthutch 444]

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/04/opinion/frum-peak-oil/index.html

You guys are adorable

[Stumpy 284]

So you agree with the article?

Never try to eat more than you can lift

[brenthutch 444]

If you mean the fallacy of "peak oil" then yes. As far as CO2 reduction is concerned, it is just coincidental and non consequential bi-product of natural gas production. If it helps you sleep at night than all the better. A win win, if you will.

[Stumpy 284]

Ah right, so you only credit the author when he agrees with you.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Quote

Our oil problem is not that "we're running out." Our oil problem is that we're producing so much of the stuff that we are changing the planet's climate.

Never try to eat more than you can lift

[yoink 321]

I've never heard of 'peak oil' - the first sentence seems to suggest that it's the point where oil production starts declining? Is that it?

[brenthutch 444]

My post was about the very real and verifiable notion of "peak oil". I am just talking about math. More oil and gas > less oil and gas. Please don't conflate the very real fact that the United States will surpass Saudi Arabia as the number one oil and gas producer by 2018, and the fiction of AGW.
I can't believe that despite record high levels of CO2, and 15 years of no statistical change in global temperatures, droughts, floods, hurricanes, wild fires, tornadoes, sea levels, etc ad nauseam, that one would still believe in AGW. Because I am not so bright, I depend on math to guide my thinking. I can only be envious of your intellect.

[billvon 3,120]

>As far as CO2 reduction is concerned, it is just coincidental and non consequential
>bi-product of natural gas production.

Right. And oil spills are just a coincidental and non-consequential by product of shipping oil by sea. The two have nothing to do with each other.

[JohnnyMarko 1]

Quote

Editor's note: David Frum, a CNN contributor, is a contributing editor at Newsweek and The Daily Beast. He is the author of eight books, including a new novel, "Patriots," and a post-election e-book, "Why Romney Lost." Frum was a special assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002.

.....emphasis on 'special'

[rickjump1 0]

brenthutch

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/04/opinion/frum-peak-oil/index.html

You guys are adorable

Matthew R. Simmons', "'Twilight in the Desert', The Coming Saudi Shock and the World Economy", was published in 2005 as a warning that the Saudi "oil miracle" is coming to an end. Lots of water injected wells with less recovery each year is now the name of the game. Natural gas became important, but there is a "growing urgency for new natural gas sources". This book was acclaimed by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Business Week, New Statesman, Washington Post, Barron's, etc.

Do your part for global warming: ban beans and hold all popcorn farts.

[rushmc 23]

Stumpy

Ah right, so you only credit the author when he agrees with you.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Quote

Our oil problem is not that "we're running out." Our oil problem is that we're producing so much of the stuff that we are changing the planet's climate.

And you are different how??


Back up

the irony meter is about to explode!!

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 23]

billvon

>As far as CO2 reduction is concerned, it is just coincidental and non consequential
>bi-product of natural gas production.

Right. And oil spills are just a coincidental and non-consequential by product of shipping oil by sea. The two have nothing to do with each other.

And neither does death by car acidents and driving
Or skydiving deaths and parachutes

Come on Bill
You are better than this

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[winsor 236]

brenthutch

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/04/opinion/frum-peak-oil/index.html

You guys are adorable

"For all practical purposes, the world's supply of oil is not finite..."

Our problem is, unfortunately, that we live in a society where our collective awareness of time is a business quarter. If a CEO defers maintenance and otherwise shuffles accounts so that 'profits' are unusually high for the preceding four months, he is deemed a 'genius' and given a huge bonus. If, OTOH, he/she straightens out such subterfuge so that the company's fundamentals are sound, but takes a hit over the quarter, shareholders are screaming for his/her head.

The concept of 'peak oil' is based on the availability of light, sweet crude at common extraction economics. If you include resources whose extraction would be prohibitive by comparison, the total amount changes significantly. The reserve of each type of petroleum is, however, quite finite.

The production rate of a particular oil field tends to follow a curve resembling a Gaussian distribution, the familiar 'Bell Curve.' You have test wells on the leading edge, a big bulge as more wells are sunk and production comes into full swing, and stripper wells/seawater extraction on the tail end of the curve. Regardless of the trickery used to milk out what remains, there will always be a little more left when you finally give up when extraction takes more energy than the yield.

It seems unlikely that Clarke's Third Law should apply to something so pedestrian as petroleum exploration, but the author seems to think there is magic involved. There is nothing that is going on now in terms of petroleum availability that was not known - in broad strokes, at least - when I was an undergraduate those many moons ago.

If you look at production of light, sweet crude, you will find that we are on the back end of the curve, well past Hubbert's Peak.

The fact that we can now include significant resources that are prohibitively costly by comparison to easy-to-extract pools of high-quality crude modifies the curve, but does not change its fundamental nature.

The technology for turning coal into liquid fuel is not now in widespread use, but could provide yet another tweak to these fuel production curves. However, a visit to areas that have already been mined out can provide some idea of what the end game will look like; regardless of how plentiful a finite resource may look, when it's gone, it's gone.

While new sources of fossil fuels may seem like a good thing, all they do is delay the inevitable and exacerbate its effects. For all the moaning and wailing about climate change and whatnot, when you have x billion people more than can be fed in the absence of cheap and plentiful energy, the weather report as they starve to death is but a footnote.

Again, enjoy yourself - it's later than you think.


BSBD,

Winsor

[turtlespeed 226]

JohnnyMarko

Quote

Editor's note: David Frum, a CNN contributor, is a contributing editor at Newsweek and The Daily Beast. He is the author of eight books, including a new novel, "Patriots," and a post-election e-book, "Why Romney Lost." Frum was a special assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002.

.....emphasis on 'special'

Are you saying he was a Lowinski Assistant?

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[winsor 236]

turtlespeed

***

Quote

Editor's note: David Frum, a CNN contributor, is a contributing editor at Newsweek and The Daily Beast. He is the author of eight books, including a new novel, "Patriots," and a post-election e-book, "Why Romney Lost." Frum was a special assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002.

.....emphasis on 'special'

Are you saying he was a Lowinski Assistant?

Nah, I think the implication is more along the lines of a 'short bus' assistant.

[turtlespeed 226]

winsor

******

Quote

Editor's note: David Frum, a CNN contributor, is a contributing editor at Newsweek and The Daily Beast. He is the author of eight books, including a new novel, "Patriots," and a post-election e-book, "Why Romney Lost." Frum was a special assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002.

.....emphasis on 'special'

Are you saying he was a Lowinski Assistant?

Nah, I think the implication is more along the lines of a 'short bus' assistant.

AH . . . so a Pelosi Assistant. Gotcha

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[richravizza 28]

brenthutch

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/04/opinion/frum-peak-oil/index.html

You guys are adorable

US NAT GAS reduces US emissions?I Been saying that and get laughed at But all the Info can be found @ natural gas .org
The Pew institute with the EPA Both agree? The Star program alone reduces US Methane emissions by some 80 million or was it Billion Tons a year.This reduction was After the Enviros said that Nat gas drilling was releasing "Vast"amounts of G.H.G.
The newest fuel is now Distributed by Clean Energy Fuels, Natural gas from DUMPS. This Fuel would just leach into the atmosphere. Is being collected and used for what else Trash Trucks.
Waste management uses the same recovery method to run a turbine, ONE DUMP is making more electicity than All the Solar Panels in the US...combined.
All the dooms day envirvos, should stop.Every time they wine,We just overcome.We reinvent industries,invent new technology find and develop undiscovered Vast energy Reserves.I've been getting tired of hearing the 'Sky is Falling 'so much that I now Profit when it is said.
By the way No Gov't subsidize, taxs or Debt was incured . Just good ole US capitalism

[billvon 3,120]

>And neither does death by car acidents and driving
>Or skydiving deaths and parachutes

Agreed. Thank you for making my point.

[rushmc 23]

billvon

>And neither does death by car acidents and driving
>Or skydiving deaths and parachutes

Agreed. Thank you for making my point.

Ya

I made your point

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[billvon 3,120]

>I can't believe that despite record high levels of CO2, and 15 years of no statistical
>change in global temperatures

Hottest years on record since 1900:

Year Global[65] Land[66] Ocean[67]
2010 0.6590 1.0748 0.5027
2005 0.6523 1.0505 0.5007
1998 0.6325 0.9351 0.5160
2003 0.6219 0.8859 0.5207
2002 0.6130 0.9351 0.4902
2006 0.5978 0.9091 0.4792
2009 0.5957 0.8621 0.4953
2007 0.5914 1.0886 0.3900
2004 0.5779 0.8132 0.4885
2012 0.5728 0.8968 0.4509

Going back more than 15 years puts you in 1997.