2013 - A Year of Weather Extreme in the US

[lawrocket 3]

It's time to just admit that the extremes of weather that we have seen in the US this year are here to stay and we should just get used to them. For tornadoes and fires and hurricances, there is some truly extreme stuff going on. We should just get used to it.

For examples, look at tornadoes. Thus far there have been 7 deadly tornadoes in 2013 in the US - the last being on June 24. In 2012 there were 23 deadly tornadoes through June 24. For tornadoes of EF3 or higher, we're at 16 for the year. We have to go back to 1987 to see a similar number. We've seen a year of extremely mild tornado weather (next season's "Storm Chasers" might be dull).

There also have never been a year with fewer Atlantic Hurricanes from Jan. 1 - August 5 than 2013. This is not an argument - it's factual because there has not been a single Atlantic Hurricane this calendar year. Not one. The 1983 season had only 4 named storms - so we've tied that. The 1982 hurricane season had only two Atlantic Hurricanes. There isn't even an organized system that could become a hurricane in the Atlantic right now so we've got at least a week before a hurricane can develop. Compare to 2005 - 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes. Why did I hear back in 2005 that "this is the new normal?"

Fires? Right now we're under 30k wildfires nationwide that have burned 2.4 million acres (nearly half that acreage from one fire in Alaska). 2012 had almost 68k fires that burned 9.3 million acres. 1989 was the record low year for fires - just under 49k fires. 2006 had 96k fires and 9.9 million acres burned. We are more that 50% below average in fires in the US. Despite what people were saying even last year, no, fires are not getting bigger or more frequent. They are doing more damage to human habitation because we have more people living in area that used to burn at least once per decade.

It has indeed been a year of extreme weather in the US. The climate is indeed changing. Having record lows of fires, tornadoes and hurricanes in the same year appears to be unprecedented since records have been kept. We should no longer deny the effects of climate change on weather.

Or - should we just look at the extreme mild as a natural variation. That even though it's been pretty mild we should be aware that the pendulum will eventually swing the other way. Kinda like the deniers were saying back in the mid 2000s about hurricanes and tornadoes and fires - that it'll go the other way, too.

Cold? Take a look at the number of record cold measurements in the US this year.

So what needs to happen? We need to have a LOT of extreme weather just to bring us back to normal. Yes, extreme weather is normal. And we at one extreme in terms of the LACK of extreme weather. Right now.

What do it think? It's the calm before the storm. It'll then turn into the storm before the calm. Repeat.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[turtlespeed 226]

But you can't sensationalize it.

You can't make money on lower amounts of extreme weather.

It doesn't pay to not have global warming.

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[masterrig 1]

As for the wildfires, in 2012, out of 254 counties in the State of Texas, only 2 were un-touched by wildfires. The Western States have been in a drought for the last several years and we are not out of the woods, yet. There is still an abundance of fuel build-up. Dry lightening has been the major cause of wildfires in the Western States. Along with careless people walking away from campfire or deliberately setting fires. In the area where I live, we had one of the largest wildfires in Texas history, the Rock House Fire. Fortunately, Texas has received a good amount of rain this July, as have other Western States and things are green. The grasses will die off as they do and the fuel will be there. Wildfires are a part of nature to make way for new growth.
I can recall over the years when tornado numbers were way up and years when tornado numbers were way down. I can recall extreme hot weather in the summer and extremely cold winters as well as milder summers and winters. I just take it as 'that's just nature'.


Chuck

[masterrig 1]

...and there are individuals and large corporations making a bundle off it. cough, Al Gore cough...


Chuck

[NorrinRadd 0]

turtlespeed

But you can't sensationalize it.

You can't make money on lower amounts of extreme weather.

It doesn't pay to not have global warming.

Sure it does. It pays the big oil companies to keep us in the dark.

Why drive myself crazy trying to be normal, when I am already at crazy?

[lawrocket 3]

You don't get it. "Extreme weather" is the new black. Because "extreme weather" means anything. "We told you that there would be extreme weather. Ever seen weather this mild before? No, you haven't. This is climate change and something must be done."

There's been a heat wave in China. The alarmists have all been making noise about "get used to it. This is the new normal." The only thing we've heard about Arctic ice this year is the melt pool camera 350 miles from the north pole that became frozen again days later and the dramatic decline in sea ice the first two weeks of July. Then the ice extent really smoothed off again and is back at normal range.

Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice is over 1 million square kilometers above normal. It's actually more than 2 standard deviations above normal right now and setting new records. It's been above average every day for well over a year.

We've seen the stages of climate alarmism go as follows in the last decade:
(1) Anthropogenic global warming
(2) Anthropogenic polar warming
(3) Anthropogenice north polar warming
(4) Anthropogenic climate change
(5) Extreme weather.

What's next? I can see "extreme weather" sticking around for a while because it cannot ever be objectively disproved. And thus every weather event will therefore be pointed to as "climate change."

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[turtlespeed 226]

lawrocket

You don't get it. "Extreme weather" is the new black. Because "extreme weather" means anything. "We told you that there would be extreme weather. Ever seen weather this mild before? No, you haven't. This is climate change and something must be done."

There's been a heat wave in China. The alarmists have all been making noise about "get used to it. This is the new normal." The only thing we've heard about Arctic ice this year is the melt pool camera 350 miles from the north pole that became frozen again days later and the dramatic decline in sea ice the first two weeks of July. Then the ice extent really smoothed off again and is back at normal range.

Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice is over 1 million square kilometers above normal. It's actually more than 2 standard deviations above normal right now and setting new records. It's been above average every day for well over a year.

We've seen the stages of climate alarmism go as follows in the last decade:
(1) Anthropogenic global warming
(2) Anthropogenic polar warming
(3) Anthropogenice north polar warming
(4) Anthropogenic climate change
(5) Extreme weather.

What's next? I can see "extreme weather" sticking around for a while because it cannot ever be objectively disproved. And thus every weather event will therefore be pointed to as "climate change."

Next?

NEXT?

N E X T ?

I'll tell you what is next . . .

Extreme tornadoes that pick up sharks out of the water and toss them into civilization.

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[lawrocket 3]

Thus far in 2013, Texas has had 60 wildfires that burned 4,171 acres. Texas has also had 90 prescribed burns that burned a total of 118,198 acres. 3.4% of the burn area in Texas this year is wildfire.

In 2012, Texas had 10,620 wildfires that burned 179,602 acres. And 97 prescibed burns that burned 110,270 acres. Last year seems to show that there are really short memories of bad thing.

I think that your anecdote provides a powerful idea for the mix between perception and data. The idea that there are more fires, bigger fires, etc., when placed in the mind creates that perception. It's exactly what I hopes to show by the initial post - that "extreme weather" is what any person thinks is "extreme weather." Even thougb wildfires in texas have been at or near a record low through this point, you've provided a personal observation that it is pretty bad.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[masterrig 1]

Sure, numbers are down this year... everything burned-up, last year!


Chuck

[BillyVance 35]

Quote

For examples, look at tornadoes. Thus far there have been 7 deadly tornadoes in 2013 in the US - the last being on June 24. In 2012 there were 23 deadly tornadoes through June 24. For tornadoes of EF3 or higher, we're at 16 for the year. We have to go back to 1987 to see a similar number. We've seen a year of extremely mild tornado weather (next season's "Storm Chasers" might be dull).

Interesting that you didn't reference 2011. That was one of the worst years ever for total tornado touchdowns and killer tornadoes and deaths and destruction. A once a generation type of year though.

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[masterrig 1]

BillyVance

Quote

For examples, look at tornadoes. Thus far there have been 7 deadly tornadoes in 2013 in the US - the last being on June 24. In 2012 there were 23 deadly tornadoes through June 24. For tornadoes of EF3 or higher, we're at 16 for the year. We have to go back to 1987 to see a similar number. We've seen a year of extremely mild tornado weather (next season's "Storm Chasers" might be dull).

Interesting that you didn't reference 2011. That was one of the worst years ever for total tornado touchdowns and killer tornadoes and deaths and destruction. A once a generation type of year though.

In January 2010, we had ten straight days of below zero temps., nighttime and low 20's daytime temps. I hadn't seen it that cold here in west Texas since the early 90's. since then, the winters have been what I would call 'mild'. When I was a kid, I saw on the news, film of tornadoes that through the season, numbered in the hundreds along the 'tornado belt' and through the South. I remember record setting cold temps in the Western states, severe flooding one year and near drought the next. I'm no meteorologist by any means but I think, this old world just has weather 'cycles'.


Chuck

[livendive 8]

And Seattle had zero measurable rain in July. And Alaskan king salmon are dying from a heat wave before they can spawn. And 716 overnight miminimum temp records fell during a US wide heat wave in July. And Kiev saw 100 degrees F, Death Valley 129, Greenland 79 (highest ever) and Salt Lake City had its warmest July on record (the top 7 have all occurred since 2002).

Weather is weather and relatively meaningless on a snapshot basis.

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[turtlespeed 226]

livendive

Greenland 79 (highest ever)

EVER - Holy Crap!

Who'd a thunk it that molten earth crust is below 79.

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[lawrocket 3]

livendive

And Seattle had zero measurable rain in July. And Alaskan king salmon are dying from a heat wave before they can spawn. And 716 overnight miminimum temp records fell during a US wide heat wave in July. And Kiev saw 100 degrees F, Death Valley 129, Greenland 79 (highest ever) and Salt Lake City had its warmest July on record (the top 7 have all occurred since 2002).

Weather is weather and relatively meaningless on a snapshot basis.

Blues,
Dave

Fully agree. So why does every "state of the climate" report have weather phenomena listed? A flood here. A high there. A storm here. A tornado outbreak.

Climate science is, by it's nature, pretty boring and unspectacular. Looking at the long-term trend of temperatures, weather events, etc. What are the trends showing? 30 year? 15 year? 5 year?

No. A tornado hitting downtown Dallas is not evidence of climate change. Nor is the lack of tornadoes evidence of no climate change. Stick to the trends - not the individual events.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[livendive 8]

I haven't chased down their sources, but an interesting article regardless (and it seems more concerned with trends).

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/06/26/f-climate-change-flooding-weather-preparation.html

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[lawrocket 3]

I read something a couple of weeks ago where the headline was that Calgary officials were warned by the 2010 study that "climate change" could cause Calgary to suffer more frequent floods that would be of higher magnitude.

But - it was also careful in pointing out that, as of 2010, there wasn't clear evidence that floods had been more frequent or of higher magnitude. Nevertheless, people who performed the study were crowing "I told you so."

To me, it's like predicting that climate change will likely lead to an increase in the likelihood of an earthquake of magnitude 7.2 or higher along the San Andreas Fault. Or, "due to rising sea level, climate change increases the likelihood of devastating inundation of the coast of the American northwest in the event of a catastrophic rupture of the Cascadia fault."

It also requires to forget about Calgary"s history (getting clobbered with three floods (all worse than the recent one in terms of inundation but not dollars of damage) between 1879 and 1902. This recent one would be a ten-year flood back in the late 19th-early 20th century. The only reason why the flooding was called the "worst in history" is because nobody bothered to look back into history.

Climate alarmism requires a short memory. It was a flood. In Calgary. They used to have floods like this every decade on average. To predict a flood is like the Pharaoh predicting floods. A whole lot of "no shit" enters into the equation.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[livendive 8]

I would say that an average of 20 more rainy days per year than 6 decades ago constitutes a trend (if true), but that's not even really my point. What I'd like to see is rebuilding efforts and new development take into account the potential future impacts instead of just throwing good money after bad. Cedar Rapids, IA and Napa, CA are good examples of cities trying to reduce their vulnerability to future floods.

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[lawrocket 3]

Yeah. We check out flood plains and see what's possible/probable. But then there are places like Orting. Which will be under 30 feet of mud some day.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,180]

www.redorbit.com/news/science/1112917764/global-warming-not-slowing-noaa-report-080713/

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kallend 2,180]

So I'm in Glacier National Park right now, yet I don't seem able to find many glaciers.

I guess your explanation is that the park was misnamed.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

kallend

www.redorbit.com/news/science/1112917764/global-warming-not-slowing-noaa-report-080713/

I like the article. Here's a paraphrase: "it doesn't matter what the thermometers are saying, the earth is behaving like a warming world."

Or, to otherwise phrase it, "these extreme climate events keep happening even though it is not getting warmer." I posted the stats. The data. Tornadoes and hurricanes are less frequent now than they were a decade ago.

We've had three hurricanes make US landfall since Jan. 09 - 4 and 1/2 years. Three hurricanes made landfall off the gulf of Mexico in a 17 day span in June, 1886. Then another one in July. Then a major hurricane in August. Then another hurricane in september. Then another Cat 3 in October.

1886 had SEVEN hurricanes make landfall from the Gulf of Mexico onto US shores. Could you imagine the screams of "unprecedented" and "global warming caused this" that would happen? I can.

Remember what was promised after the horrific 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons? Atlantic hurricane activitity dropped. And not since at LEAST the Civil War has the US been so comparatively hurricane free (been more than 20 years since a Cat 5 hit us).

[Reply]So I'm in Glacier National Park right now, yet I don't seem able to find many glaciers.

I guess your explanation is that the park was misnamed.