Global warming is epic, long-term study says

[skinnay 0]

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/08/world/world-climate-change/index.html

Good thing our dropzone.com climate scientists are here to disprove all this BS science!

[lawrocket 3]

Quote

Global warming has propelled Earth's climate from one of its coldest decades since the last ice age to one of its hottest -- in just one century.
A heat spike like this has never happened before, at least not in the last 11,300 years

Translation - We can't find any evidence that this didn't happen before. It was the coldest in decades and now it's the warmest in decades. And we haven't seen it warm lik this before, unless you look back a ways.

It hasn't happened before, except those times when it happened, and it's unprecedented and extraordinary, much like the President said it would have been unprecedented, extraordinary for the Supreme Court to overturn a law as Unconstitutional.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Bignugget 0]

Not really accurate.

"Global warming has propelled Earth's climate from one of its coldest decades since the last ice age, to one of its hottest in just one century.

A heat spike like this has never happened before, at least not in the last 11,300 years (that we studied)"

This says we went from some of the coldest decades since the last ice age in the early 1900s

Now we are in some of the warmest decades since the last ice age.

A rapid spike like this was only observed once in this 11,300 year study. That was as far back as they felt they could reliably go with the data available.



The problem is everyone seems to agree the earth should be COOLING, not warming, due to its position in the solar system right now.

[lawrocket 3]

Quote

This says we went from some of the coldest decades since the last ice age in the early 1900s

Now we are in some of the warmest decades since the last ice age.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

Yes, that significant cooling occurred for 300 years, with the worst of it starting to end around 1850. Then it started warming (till Krakatoa put a five year dent in it) until peaking in the 1930s (that whole Dust Bowl thingy with its dust storms, droughts, and very high temperatures. Yes, one need only look to the 1930s to find a temperature spike like we had from 1970 to now. Then it went down until it hit a cooler period in the 1970s.

Global reconstructions reveal that between 1890 and 1940, global mean temperatures increased .6 degrees Celsius. Then they went down again somewhat before increasing .5 degrees Celsius between 1970 and now. Wow. It took 50 years for the global mean to increase .6 degrees from late 1800s to mid 1900s. And now it’s only taken 40 years to go up .5 degrees from 1970 to present.

Yeppers. Totally unprecedented. Ain’t seen that before. Nope.

Next thing you know, we’ll be hearing that the 2008 economy collapse was the worst we’ve ever seen, well, at least since 1929, but we had the hottest economy in decades until 2008 happened and we’ve never seen something like that before.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Bignugget 0]

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/339/6124/1198.full


"Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time. Here we provide a broader perspective by reconstructing regional and global temperature anomalies for the past 11,300 years from 73 globally distributed records. Early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 years ago) warmth is followed by ~0.7°C cooling through the middle to late Holocene (<5000 years ago), culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. This cooling is largely associated with ~2°C change in the North Atlantic. Current global temperatures of the past decade have not yet exceeded peak interglacial values but are warmer than during ~75% of the Holocene temperature history. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections for 2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios."

Sounds to me like we were cooling off as per expectations given the stage the earth was in....until the 1800s...(when we started burning fossil fuels)

And now we are warming up at a rate that is unseen in the last 11,300 years.

They aren't talking about mean differences in temperatures in a 50 year range.

They are talking about mean differences over 11,300 years.....you see 0 significance in that? Of course there are fluctuations its not a linear graph, but the trend is pretty clear when you look at the data plots.



I sort of think of it as Missouri weather.

Saturday its 73s then Sunday its 50, then today its 30s. I don't notice as much (born here) but visitors sure do. I think of humanity as the tourist of Missouri.

We aren't prepared to wake up and find its 80 when we are packed for 40s.

Humanity is in for a rude awakening, truth is we will be long dead so it really just makes for good lunchtime posting to me. I dont plan to sow any seeds around so screw the future generations anyways.

[lawrocket 3]

Quote

Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time.

That word "suggest." In other words, there are plenty of other suggestions in the reconstructions.

Quote

Early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 years ago) warmth is followed by ~0.7°C cooling through the middle to late Holocene (<5000 years ago), culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago.

Deep glaciation was 12k years ago, suggesting a MASSIVE increase in temperature during the period between the end of Holocene and 10k years ago (we're talking at least 5 degrees Celsius, easy). And also that it was warmer 8k years ago than now.

Quote

[IPCC] model projections for 2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

More of those "prediction" thingies. How do we test the validity of the projection? We wait until 2100. Too often are "hypotheses" being called "science." The "projection" is a STEP in the scientific process.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Bignugget 0]

You must be a good lawyer :].

In my hood we call that cherry picking.

"Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time."

You left the 2nd sentence off where they say because of that suggestion they went back and modeled 11,300 years.

But shoot me a PM with your areas of practice, I might need someone with your tongue

[rushmc 23]

Quote

You must be a good lawyer :].

In my hood we call that cherry picking.

"Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time."

You left the 2nd sentence off where they say because of that suggestion they went back and modeled 11,300 years.

But shoot me a PM with your areas of practice, I might need someone with your tongue

He handed you your ass!

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[Bignugget 0]

I just know better than to play with an educated cherry picker.

Now you, I don't mind.

[kallend 2,150]

Quote

Quote

You must be a good lawyer :].

In my hood we call that cherry picking.

"Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time."

You left the 2nd sentence off where they say because of that suggestion they went back and modeled 11,300 years.

But shoot me a PM with your areas of practice, I might need someone with your tongue

He handed you your ass!

Ummmm NO, he is guilty of cherry picking and has been exposed.

www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/03/climate-change/

It increasingly seems that only those beholden to or paid by Big Energy remain in denial.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 23]

Quote

I just know better than to play with an educated cherry picker.

Now you, I don't mind.

It appears to me he points out the cherry picking that is yours

And he did it very well

Then the insults

You think yourself so cute

Glad someone does

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[lawrocket 3]

Actually, I was pointing out the cherry picking.

Quote

You left the 2nd sentence off where they say because of that suggestion they went back and modeled 11,300 years.

And I indicated that 12k there was a lot of glaciation. 12k years ago there was Lake Hudson. Why is 11,300 the time they can get anything reliable? Because everything else was under ice or obliterated by ice before that.

I stuck to the time period given and pointed out that, yes, there was a MASSIVE and QUICK increase in temperature and and MASSIVE increase in sea level that moved the shoreline 100 miles inland in 6k years due to a 350-400 foot increase in sea level - an AVERAGE increase of .7-.8 inches of sea level per year. Fact - that isn't happening now.

Global warming was massively accelerated 10k years ago. This is a fact. the climate change was extreme and rapid and spruce tundra was replaced by pine forest in the span of a lifetime. We aren't seeing that.

Quote

"Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time."

You left the 2nd sentence off where they say because of that suggestion they went back and modeled 11,300 years.

And then they said that present climate is at 75th percentile of the range of climate warmth during that period. Translation: "2,825 years of the last 11,300 have been warmer than the past decade."

Makes me tremble with fear just thinking of how bad it is now.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,150]

Quote

And then they said that present climate is at 75th percentile of the range of climate warmth during that period. Translation: "2,825 years of the last 11,300 have been warmer than the past decade."

Makes me tremble with fear just thinking of how bad it is now.

Tell us what you know about first and second derivatives, counselor?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

Only that they are useful in determining maxima and minima. In climate science, they are used to calculate the "tipping points" - aka "abscissae."

We've passed those points hundreds of times already. So they keep on remaking them.

Do I win?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,150]

Quote

Only that they are useful in determining maxima and minima. In climate science, they are used to calculate the "tipping points" - aka "abscissae."

We've passed those points hundreds of times already. So they keep on remaking them.

Do I win?

So a positive value on both the first and second derivatives is nothing to be worried about, right?

I know a guy who became a billionaire by keeping track of market derivatives. He even calls his yacht "Convexity" and his company logo is a graph of it.

Derivatives are important - sometimes more important than the function itself.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

Yes. And multivariable derivative functions can be interesting. It's the selection of what variables that is the key. And their interactions.

The guy who invented the hedge fund is also the guy who invented the system of card counting. Card counting was a big fear of casinos. They grew to love it because so many people thought they could do it but couldn't.

Here's the thing: how much of the world economy - which also means human lives - are you willing to bet to manage the risk we'll see 5.5 feet of sea level rise by 2100? That's a tall number, eh?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[rehmwa 2]

Quote

Yes. And multivariable derivative functions can be interesting.

but.....do they create wealth?

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[kallend 2,150]

Quote

Yes. And multivariable derivative functions can be interesting. It's the selection of what variables that is the key. And their interactions.

The guy who invented the hedge fund is also the guy who invented the system of card counting. Card counting was a big fear of casinos. They grew to love it because so many people thought they could do it but couldn't.

Here's the thing: how much of the world economy - which also means human lives - are you willing to bet to manage the risk we'll see 5.5 feet of sea level rise by 2100? That's a tall number, eh?

The US Navy seems to think SEA LEVEL RISE is a problem. www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/top-navy-admiral-climate-change-biggest-security-threat-pacific_706767.html

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rehmwa 2]

Quote

The US Navy seems to think SEA LEVEL RISE is a problem.

sure, rising waters will swamp the ships - they'll need to design ships that float 'up' more.....

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[kallend 2,150]

Quote

Quote

The US Navy seems to think SEA LEVEL RISE is a problem.

sure, rising waters will swamp the ships - they'll need to design ships that float 'up' more.....

Hey, I bet the admiral never thought of that.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rehmwa 2]

Quote

Quote

Quote

The US Navy seems to think SEA LEVEL RISE is a problem.

sure, rising waters will swamp the ships - they'll need to design ships that float 'up' more.....

Hey, I bet the admiral never thought of that.

the admiral doesn't HAVE to - he's got people for that

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[BillyVance 35]

Quote

Quote

The US Navy seems to think SEA LEVEL RISE is a problem.

sure, rising waters will swamp the ships - they'll need to design ships that float 'up' more.....

I'm sure the captain of the Titanic wished they'd done that before building it.

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[lawrocket 3]

Quote

the island of Tarawa in Kiribati, they’re contemplating moving their entire population to another country because [it] is not going to exist anymore.

This is a load of bullshit. I remember reading about the risks to Tarawa. Check this out:
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPACIFICISLANDS/Resources/4-Chapter+4.pdf

Table 12 is a good one. It sees the key risks as those of storm surges. Which makes sense with coral atolls. Yes, Tarawa faces and has always faced problems with storm surges because there isn't high ground.

Table 15 is a groovy one, too - highlighting the risk to Tarawa in the event that sea level rises 16 inches in the next 37 years. It also points out that the main risks to Tarawa come from growing population.

But once again, I'll look to statements like:

Quote

Certainly weather patterns are more severe than they have been in the past.

Indeed. And cars are certainly gotten worse now than they have been in the past.

My wife is hotter than your wife.