Future for solar power not so sunny.

[billeisele 130]

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>Nuclear: cost competitive in the market depending on the deal that is negotiated

And provided the government pays for their insurance. Without free government insurance nuclear would not be possible at all.

>Solar: prices have come down some, mainly due to the glut of Chinese
>panels that were overproduced and the downturn in demand, that bubble
>will disappear . . .

So will the natural gas bubble, as new plants use up the (over)supply. The nice thing about solar is that once solar prices rise, all the installed capacity will still be generating power. Once natural gas prices rise the show's over.

>Based on this we bet on nuclear, installing 2 AP1000's, we have a great
>contract and a great partner

Those are good designs. Let's hope for your sake the government keeps the nuclear subsidies flowing.

I don't know anything about nuclear insurance - but will find out.

Yep, natural gas prices will surely rise. One reason is the LNG import terminals are being converted to NG export terminals. It is a global market and the commodity will find a route to the highest bidder. Another reason we didn't bet on gas fired technology. But no the show will not be over. Within the range of NG prices it is still cheaper than solar in my area.

Give one city to the thugs so they can all live together. I vote for Chicago where they have strict gun laws.

[billeisele 130]

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>Uhhhh, NO. At 4 PM in the middle of the summer when clouds form we
>are at peak generating periods.

When it's partly cloudy we're still generating a significant amount via solar.

When it's overcast then solar generation goes way down - and air conditioning loads go down as well.
Works out pretty well in practice.

We meter many solar installations and the actual data we have shows that is not the case. They under perform the stated expectations and output drops off much quicker as solar intensity decreases. This is kinda cool - I've got real data so don't have to offer opinions about how a complex dynamic system works.

Admittedly, there are some systems (like yours) that may work better than average. I'm talking about the collective results of many systems and how that impacts the grid.

The reality is the utility must install the same amount of generation, transmission and distribution with or without the solar. Granted if there is a huge widespread area then under a certain set of circumstances that won't be true. But there are times when the customers would have to accept outages. So far, at least in our area, that is a big thumbs down vote.

We are fine with solar or any other renewable, if a customer wants to put it in - fine. The problem comes when they aren't willing to accept the financial responsibility for the standby service.

Give one city to the thugs so they can all live together. I vote for Chicago where they have strict gun laws.

[kelpdiver 2]

Quote

We meter many solar installations and the actual data we have shows that is not the case. They under perform the stated expectations and output drops off much quicker as solar intensity decreases. This is kinda cool - I've got real data so don't have to offer opinions about how a complex dynamic system works.

He has real data too...and less of a vested interest, apparently.

You can tell me that peak load is from 5-8am too, but it isn't true for California. Seems like you're generalizing out of your narrowed frame of reference, yet I'm supposed to take your word for it. No thanks.

BTW, did that evaluation of nuclear power costs include the still non existent solution for nuclear waste storage? I bet it didn't.

[billeisele 130]

forgot one thing - it is really irritating when the customer that was sold the "Super Solar Package that makes your bills go away forever" calls and demands that his meter be checked/replaced/whatever, it can't be correct I've got the SSP that puts out more power than I could ever use, you owe me money, I know this can't be right and I'm not paying the bill

Well sir, I understand your concern, we have seen this on many other solar installations. We test thousands of meters each year and it is extremely rare to find one that is wrong. When we do find one it is almost always slow not fast. I'd encourage you to have a conversation with your solar vendor. If you don't pay the bill we will be forced to add a late payment charge and eventually disconnect service. (At that point they would see that the solar system really doesn't work but it rarely comes to this.)

Oh hell no, come get this meter, it is definitely wrong!! I bought the SSP.

What is happening is the customer is realizing they were idiots and bought into the hype. Looking for someone to dump on. Once we help them do the calculations they realize that the payback is significantly longer than what they were told/sold. We are slowly making the solar vendors honest.

Give one city to the thugs so they can all live together. I vote for Chicago where they have strict gun laws.

[rushmc 23]

We are slowly making the solar vendors honest.

[billeisele 130]

Quote

We are slowly making the solar vendors honest.

Will this honest affect the volume of their business?

[billeisele 130]

Quote

Quote

We meter many solar installations and the actual data we have shows that is not the case. They under perform the stated expectations and output drops off much quicker as solar intensity decreases. This is kinda cool - I've got real data so don't have to offer opinions about how a complex dynamic system works.

He has real data too...and less of a vested interest, apparently.

You can tell me that peak load is from 5-8am too, but it isn't true for California. Seems like you're generalizing out of your narrowed frame of reference, yet I'm supposed to take your word for it. No thanks.

BTW, did that evaluation of nuclear power costs include the still non existent solution for nuclear waste storage? I bet it didn't.

ho hum, here we go again, I'm speaking for the market east of the big river, don't know or give a hoot what CA wants to do, but I may just call my contacts at SDG&E and Edison to see what there generation load profiles look like

What I said was - "for example" - this is one of the many peak load periods, they are regional and situational.

Yes my frame of reference is narrow, it only covers the SE excluding 2/3 of FL.

Yes, we have taken responsibility for the cost of managing our nuclear waste. The cost of permanent storage is included in the total cost.

Don't care if you beleive me or not. I've got piles of data covering years of actual load profiles. If you close your eyes tight enough you can convince yourself that it's night time.

Give one city to the thugs so they can all live together. I vote for Chicago where they have strict gun laws.

[billvon 3,120]

>forgot one thing - it is really irritating when the customer that was sold
>the "Super Solar Package that makes your bills go away forever" calls . . .

Yep, I see some unscrupulous vendors pushing such systems. Often they will offer a 2kW "kit" that seems to be a great deal, until the owner realizes that it will generate about half of what a typical home uses - and they still have to pay for labor and permitting on top of that.

The better vendors here (Borrego Solar, Baker, Stellar, Todd) are pretty up-front about deratings and total predicted power production. As with everything else in life you get what you pay for.

[billeisele 130]

Quote

>forgot one thing - it is really irritating when the customer that was sold
>the "Super Solar Package that makes your bills go away forever" calls . . .

Yep, I see some unscrupulous vendors pushing such systems. Often they will offer a 2kW "kit" that seems to be a great deal, until the owner realizes that it will generate about half of what a typical home uses - and they still have to pay for labor and permitting on top of that.

The better vendors here (Borrego Solar, Baker, Stellar, Todd) are pretty up-front about deratings and total predicted power production. As with everything else in life you get what you pay for.

there are good vendors, CA is probably the most progressive with this technology, we've got a few good ones but it is a tough market when the grid is 10 cents and the solar availability is below 20%, but those parameters are changing reducing the payback periods

had one in the office this week, his closing comment was, "anything your company can do to help raise the incentives would be great", uhhh - wake up, not my job

always good trading info with you

Give one city to the thugs so they can all live together. I vote for Chicago where they have strict gun laws.

[brenthutch 444]

Where are the solar panels Mr President?

"When the Obama administration announced they were indeed installing new panels McKibben was excited, suggesting that as a national role model, solar panels on the White House could inspire people across the country to follow suit.

“If it has anything like the effect of the White House garden, it could be a trigger for a wave of solar installations across the country and around the world,” he wrote at the time.

But after two years and still no panels adorning the White House roof, McKibben’s excitement has morphed into disappointment."


http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2012/09/changing-cities-where-are-the-solar-panels-mr-president/