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SkydiveJonathan

China's Revolution Risk

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100019918/chinas-revolution-risk/

Dr Cheng said fears of a disintegrating political model are now eating in economic confidence. "This legitimacy crisis is worse than in 1989, and may be the worst in the history of the Communist Party. People are afraid that it could lead to revolution if it is not handled well."

The worry is that the transition could go badly awry as 70pc of top cadres and the military are replaced, the biggest changeover since the party came to power in the late 1940s. "That is what is causing capital flight. All the top officials are trying to get their money out of the country," he said.

Dr Cheng grew up during the Cultural Revolution. That makes one very sensitive to the risks of sudden lurches in the Chinese ruling system, not always for the better. He said the scandal around Bo Xilai and the party machine in Chongqing – and the fight-back by Mao nostalgics – is a symptom of a much broader crisis. The word in Beijing is that Bo Xilai alone has squirreled away $1.3 billion, but there are other even worse cases. Mr Cheng said a former railway minister – known as Mr 4pc — had ammassed $2.8 billion. "This level of corruption is unprecedented in the history of China and unparalled in the world," he said.

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