airtwardo 7 #1 August 20, 2012 http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/08/19/shocking-newsweek-cover-hit-road-barack-why-we-need-new-president ~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StreetScooby 5 #2 August 20, 2012 I read that article over the weekend. The author makes good points.We are all engines of karma Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ShcShc11 0 #3 August 20, 2012 *sigh* Its Niall Ferguson.. This man's past track record is quite terrible. The man communicates (verbally) pretty well, but is not an economist (a historian). And even as a historian, there are many of his WWI points which I disagree (but that';s another story). HIS PAST TRACK RECORDS : http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/GeneralArticle.aspx?pageid=255&cc=GB Summary: In 2009, he said US bonds % will skyrocket. NO. It is currently at its [B] HISTORICAL LOW . http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/05/01/sticker-shock.html Summary: He said in 2009 that INFLATION is coming to U.S In 2011, he said INFLATION IS BACK in the U.S... No http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/503167dc6bb3f7231b000012/image.png http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-01-30/news/31004691_1_debt-problem-greece-defaults-niall-ferguson And guess what. Niall Ferguson ADMITS he was WRONG . The datas were just stacked far too much against him. And in his recent rant, it includes Affordable Health Care Act. He writes that the CBO reported "increase deficit". http://cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/121xx/doc12119/03-30-healthcarelegislation.pdf You can have your own opinion on ACA, but the CBO report clearly says that it reduces the deficit. Many will still go: "but he is right!" because he is cheering for your side in politics. But the man has been babbling some awful fairy tales for many many years and he still is with his Newsweek cover (trying to use shock and awe to draw readerships in). Cheers! Shc Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StreetScooby 5 #4 August 20, 2012 Quote Its Niall Ferguson.. Ok, so you're shooting the messenger. I listened to the message, not having any knowledge of the messenger. Make it easier for me to do so.We are all engines of karma Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gravitymaster 0 #5 August 20, 2012 Quote *sigh* Its Niall Ferguson.. *will edit this post* Right, first step is to attack the person who dares question "Dear Leader". Then scour the internet, going to various left wing sites until you can find one that tells you how to respond. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ShcShc11 0 #6 August 20, 2012 Quote Quote *sigh* Its Niall Ferguson.. *will edit this post* Right, first step is to attack the person who dares question "Dear Leader". Then scour the internet, going to various left wing sites until you can find one that tells you how to respond. I followed the man for years lol. I couldn't care less if Obama loses. I do however care for presenting real factual economics cases. And my dear GravityMaster, Niall Ferguson himself admitted he was wrong in many of his previous analysis. Its one thing to have your predictions wrong; its another to have messed up on the analysis. Cheers! Shc Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ShcShc11 0 #7 August 20, 2012 QuoteQuote Its Niall Ferguson.. Ok, so you're shooting the messenger. I listened to the message, not having any knowledge of the messenger. Make it easier for me to do so. I am shooting both the messenger and his current message. Let's take another author in another field. David Irving has had a historical past of denying the holocaust and wanted to publish a book a few years ago on Jewish life during 1920-1945. Are you not going to be skeptical? Of course you will be. Cheers! Shc Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DanG 1 #8 August 20, 2012 You're right. Questioning the messenger is only acceptable when the messenger is NASA, and the message is global warming. - Dan G Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StreetScooby 5 #9 August 20, 2012 Quote Are you not going to be skeptical? Of course you will be. Once I have experience with an author, I do judge the messenger after that point. I have no experience with the author of this paper.We are all engines of karma Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wmw999 2,602 #10 August 20, 2012 If I like the paper, then I go check the facts, and possible bias of the writer. Because stringing together a bunch of facts can lead to just about any conclusion, based on what facts are chosen. If you're trying to prove a point, it's very different from trying to ventilate a subject. You have to consider opposing viewpoints, and show how different paths could have been achieved, if you really want an honest consideration. Wendy P.There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lawrocket 3 #11 August 20, 2012 I think the big issue here is that Newsweek has made this its cover. My wife is hotter than your wife. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
airdvr 210 #12 August 20, 2012 They have to get the right leaning jab in before they continue their absolute multiple BHOrgasmsPlease don't dent the planet. Destinations by Roxanne Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #13 August 20, 2012 Quote Let's take another author in another field. David Irving has had a historical past of denying the holocaust and wanted to publish a book a few years ago on Jewish life during 1920-1945. Are you not going to be skeptical? Of course you will be. seemed like an early leap to the nazis for this thread. The subject of economics is a bit less clear cut than "did millions of Jews get killed," which is trivial to verify. Why an economy crashed or what our level of inflation (or for that matter, unemployment) we experienced over the past few years is a much greyer question and answer. The guy backed Romney in 2008 - of course he continues to do so. You still have to address his argument, not group him with a Holocaust denier. That's laziness. Or ignore Newsweek like nearly everyone else. That's a more acceptable version of laziness. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ShcShc11 0 #14 August 20, 2012 Quote seemed like an early leap to the nazis for this thread. Not at all- I would be happy to talk about Second World War era including Germany's economy 1928-1945 if you are curious about it. Quote The subject of economics is a bit less clear cut than "did millions of Jews get killed," which is trivial to verify. Why an economy crashed or what our level of inflation (or for that matter, unemployment) we experienced over the past few years is a much greyer question and answer. There's absolutely nothing grey about the things he asserted over the years- in writing and when he was on television. Saying U.S 10 years-bond would "skyrocket to at least 6-7%" and you end up with U.S 10 years bond at 1.625% ... I don't know how clearer you can get. And this has real-world effects: People from other countries are willing to PAY the U.S to borrow THEIR money. And here we are still talking about debt and bring up false analogies of "U.S raking up credit card debt". Economics is "grey" to people who don't understand it or unwilling to. Quote You still have to address his argument, not group him with a Holocaust denier. That's laziness. Its a little lazy to declare Godwin's Law whenever someone mentions the word "Nazi" and completely missing the point. It has nothing to do with Nazism and you know it. And I know that you know it lol Reminds me of Eisenhower when he was planning to build the Interstate highway project: "My interest has nothing to do with the Nazis" haha. A little more lazier when you haven't read my post that in fact addressed some of Nial's assertions in Newsweek. Quote And in his recent rant, it includes Affordable Health Care Act. He writes that the CBO reported "increase deficit". http://cbo.gov/...hcarelegislation.pdf You can have your own opinion on ACA, but the CBO report clearly says that it reduces the deficit. Cheers! Shc Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StreetScooby 5 #15 August 20, 2012 Quote Or ignore Newsweek like nearly everyone else. That's a more acceptable version of laziness. +1We are all engines of karma Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,182 #16 August 20, 2012 QuoteQuote Are you not going to be skeptical? Of course you will be. Once I have experience with an author, I do judge the messenger after that point. I have no experience with the author of this paper. Experience shows that he has a long record of being wrong. Must be why he's a hero to Republicans.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
airtwardo 7 #17 August 20, 2012 Quote Quote Quote Are you not going to be skeptical? Of course you will be. Once I have experience with an author, I do judge the messenger after that point. I have no experience with the author of this paper. Experience shows that he has a long record of being wrong. Must be why he's a hero to Republicans. Wasn't he also on the Obama 'smoke wagon' for the longest time...like they say, when the rats are leavin' the ship she's going down. ~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #18 August 20, 2012 Quote Saying U.S 10 years-bond would "skyrocket to at least 6-7%" and you end up with U.S 10 years bond at 1.625% ... I don't know how clearer you can get. predictions of the future has little comparison with misrepresenting the past. Economists and investors make mistakes constantly in their predictions. They lose money when they do, they win money off the mistaken when they get it right. Predictions about when a house of cards come crashing down are the hardest to make. Quite a few (Meredith Whitney for one) made predictions on the dire near term state of government lending that didn't occur. The reality of over borrowing is much clearer - we can see it right now in the most of the PIIGS nations. Ferguson's solution is not one you prefer. Big surprise. You'd rather ignore the problem and hope it works itself out later. Quote Economics is "grey" to people who don't understand it or unwilling to. Someone who thinks economics is black and white doesn't understand a thing about it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ShcShc11 0 #19 August 21, 2012 Quote predictions of the future has little comparison with misrepresenting the past. Economists and investors make mistakes constantly in their predictions. They lose money when they do, they win money off the mistaken when they get it right. Predictions about when a house of cards come crashing down are the hardest to make. lol. A lot of excuses you're giving for a man you don't seem to have much clue about. Read my posts again. Quote Its one thing to have your predictions wrong; its another to have messed up on the analysis. His analysis was wrong. His basic premise was that if the U.S has a massive increase in the monetary base and continue running trillion-dollar deficit, we're going to see skyrocketing 10-years bonds and inflation. We said that wouldn't happen in a zero-bound economy. His conditions are met and bonds are at a historical low. There's a problem with his analysis my friend. Quote The reality of over borrowing is much clearer - we can see it right now in the most of the PIIGS nations. Tell me what is happening with the PIIGS and we'l have a real discussion and/or debate on it. You can start with the challenges posed by having a monetary union without fiscal union or political union. or we can talk about Texas of the 1980s. A 125B$ cleanup by U.S taxpayers for Texas banking fuck-up http://fcx.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/banking/2000dec/brv13n2_2.pdf In a state with a GDP of 290B$ in the 1980s, a 125B$ (1980 value) is astronomical. And there's a Euro lesson that's been overlooked from the Texas experience... But my guess is... you'l probably just shy away from the debate. Cheers! Shc Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #20 August 21, 2012 Quote But my guess is... you'l probably just shy away from the debate. indeed - I know your history all too well. A step up from Dreamdancer, no more. Ignore the questions, post profusely (at least you don't just repost), and shovel out the bias. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
