jgoose71 0
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kallend 2,156
QuoteQuoteQuoteBill,
Haven't you heard that the sun will eventually go super-nova and burn out? Then what good will your precious solar panels be good for...
The Sun isn't massive enough to go super nova.
No, but in a couple of million years it will expand into a red giant swallowing the earth.
I was planning on being dead then, but on second thought, I think I will hang around and wait to see it......
More like 5 BILLION years, but when did conservatives ever worry about facts?
...
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
billvon 3,121
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>I was planning on being dead then, but on second thought, I think I will hang around
>and wait to see it.....
Then get your ass to Mars! It could get pretty balmy there as the Sun expands. And it would probably look pretty cool.
>and wait to see it.....
Then get your ass to Mars! It could get pretty balmy there as the Sun expands. And it would probably look pretty cool.
Quote
More like 5 BILLION years, but when did conservatives ever worry about facts?
well, if the earth is only 6000 years old...
winsor 236
QuoteQuote
More like 5 BILLION years, but when did conservatives ever worry about facts?
well, if the earth is only 6000 years old...
According to my calendar, it's 5772.
airdvr 210
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale Emphasis mine. So it appears the process is happening in other countries. Not as magical as you would have us believe. However, as long as the Pollution Police rule with an iron fist there will be none of it here.QuoteOil shale gains attention as a potential abundant source of oil whenever the price of crude oil rises.[7][8] At the same time, oil-shale mining and processing raise a number of environmental concerns, such as land use, waste disposal, water use, waste-water management, greenhouse-gas emissions and air pollution.[9][10] Estonia and China have well-established oil shale industries, and Brazil, Germany, Russia also utilize oil shale.[2]
Please don't dent the planet.
Destinations by Roxanne
Destinations by Roxanne
Quotehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale Emphasis mine. So it appears the process is happening in other countries. Not as magical as you would have us believe. However, as long as the Pollution Police rule with an iron fist there will be none of it here.QuoteOil shale gains attention as a potential abundant source of oil whenever the price of crude oil rises.[7][8] At the same time, oil-shale mining and processing raise a number of environmental concerns, such as land use, waste disposal, water use, waste-water management, greenhouse-gas emissions and air pollution.[9][10] Estonia and China have well-established oil shale industries, and Brazil, Germany, Russia also utilize oil shale.[2]
Would you be happy if we had China's level of pollution?
airdvr 210
Won't matter much anyways...China will own us in another couple of decades.QuoteWould you be happy if we had China's level of pollution?Quotehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale Emphasis mine. So it appears the process is happening in other countries. Not as magical as you would have us believe. However, as long as the Pollution Police rule with an iron fist there will be none of it here.QuoteOil shale gains attention as a potential abundant source of oil whenever the price of crude oil rises.[7][8] At the same time, oil-shale mining and processing raise a number of environmental concerns, such as land use, waste disposal, water use, waste-water management, greenhouse-gas emissions and air pollution.[9][10] Estonia and China have well-established oil shale industries, and Brazil, Germany, Russia also utilize oil shale.[2]
Please don't dent the planet.
Destinations by Roxanne
Destinations by Roxanne
billvon 3,121
>So it appears the process is happening in other countries. Not as magical as you
>would have us believe.
?? No "magic" about it. It's just chemistry, and it's happening here. So is solar, and geothermal, and wind.
>However, as long as the Pollution Police rule with an iron fist there will be none of
>it here.
Looks like there is no iron fist, since there has indeed been kerogen converted to oil here. Google "Mahogany Demonstration Project."
>would have us believe.
?? No "magic" about it. It's just chemistry, and it's happening here. So is solar, and geothermal, and wind.
>However, as long as the Pollution Police rule with an iron fist there will be none of
>it here.
Looks like there is no iron fist, since there has indeed been kerogen converted to oil here. Google "Mahogany Demonstration Project."
RonD1120 62
QuoteQuote>making oil? from water and air?
Yes. The first step is hydrolysis - breaking water into oxygen and hydrogen. Then the Sabatier pricess transforms hydrogen into methane (CO2 + 4H2 -> CH4 + 2H2O.) The water is recycled.
Next, the oxygen is combined with the methane under pressure to create syngas (CO+H2.) This is then converted to basic hydrocarbons via a process called Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. This liquid is effectively oil; it can be used directly by diesel engines or refined to a gasoline like fuel.
I believe that and I totally accept it as the truth. Ah, that is science, right?
Not hardly. Science has precisely nothing to do with belief.
Any of the processes described by bvn are well documented, and their results routinely reproducible. Whether or not they are economically viable is another question altogether.
We have a problem here, in which our way of life is dependent upon consumption of oil - or approved equivalent (see above) - to the tune of tens of millions of barrels a day. If you do the arithmetic, that's one hell of a lot of oil. 200 years worth, at our current rate of consumption, is some 14 trillion barrels, and there is precisely no way there are those kind of reserves just lying around just waiting to be found.
We are going to change our ways in the forseeable future, either willingly or by default. If we started yesterday to undergo a complete paradigm change regarding our use of energy, at the fastest rate possible, the effects would still be dreadful, and it is too little too late anyway.
Since we are still muddling around trying to maintain the status quo that we could not afford 35 years ago, all the while getting the petroleum on which we rely on seemingly endless credit, the question is simply when it will all go to hell.
Every time an economic system has wound up this far behind the power curve, it has imploded. At some point, the dollar is fated to revert to its inherent value, which is, in fact, zero.
If the US of A was self-sufficient, the results of such a default would be catastrophic. This, however, is overly optimistic, since we are anything but self-sufficient.
Despite the extent to which we are impressed with ourselves, cutting off imports of petroleum (as well as everything else) we cannot afford will result in complete shutdown of major portions of the US economy. There are going to be a lot of very hungry people.
At any rate, if we chose to develop the capacity to use sunlight to generate a million barrels a day of 100 octane gasoline, it would not be enough to affect the overall equation.
If we focus on changing our way of life so we do not need all the petroleum or petroleum substute, it might make things a little better when the spigot is turned off, but the likelihood of that is effectively zero.
Enjoy yourself - it's later than you think.
BSBD,
Winsor
Excellent analysis, thank you for taking the time to spell it out. Like yourself I believe we racing toward the cliff and the best we can do is slow the speed by maybe 10 mph.
I was just spoofing billvon with my reply earlier. I have no idea what he was talking about but I trusted him to be telling the truth. A courtesy I am not often granted. But, I digress, we all know why I am full of it.
Look for the shiny things of God revealed by the Holy Spirit. They only last for an instant but it is a Holy Instant. Let your soul absorb them.
SkyDekker 1,465
QuoteAny of the processes described by bvn are well documented, and their results routinely reproducible. Whether or not they are economically viable is another question altogether.
We have a problem here, in which our way of life is dependent upon consumption of oil - or approved equivalent (see above) - to the tune of tens of millions of barrels a day. If you do the arithmetic, that's one hell of a lot of oil. 200 years worth, at our current rate of consumption, is some 14 trillion barrels, and there is precisely no way there are those kind of reserves just lying around just waiting to be found.
We are going to change our ways in the forseeable future, either willingly or by default. If we started yesterday to undergo a complete paradigm change regarding our use of energy, at the fastest rate possible, the effects would still be dreadful, and it is too little too late anyway.
Since we are still muddling around trying to maintain the status quo that we could not afford 35 years ago, all the while getting the petroleum on which we rely on seemingly endless credit, the question is simply when it will all go to hell.
Every time an economic system has wound up this far behind the power curve, it has imploded. At some point, the dollar is fated to revert to its inherent value, which is, in fact, zero.
If the US of A was self-sufficient, the results of such a default would be catastrophic. This, however, is overly optimistic, since we are anything but self-sufficient.
Despite the extent to which we are impressed with ourselves, cutting off imports of petroleum (as well as everything else) we cannot afford will result in complete shutdown of major portions of the US economy. There are going to be a lot of very hungry people.
At any rate, if we chose to develop the capacity to use sunlight to generate a million barrels a day of 100 octane gasoline, it would not be enough to affect the overall equation.
If we focus on changing our way of life so we do not need all the petroleum or petroleum substute, it might make things a little better when the spigot is turned off, but the likelihood of that is effectively zero.
Well said.
airdvr 210
QuoteQuoteAny of the processes described by bvn are well documented, and their results routinely reproducible. Whether or not they are economically viable is another question altogether.
We have a problem here, in which our way of life is dependent upon consumption of oil - or approved equivalent (see above) - to the tune of tens of millions of barrels a day. If you do the arithmetic, that's one hell of a lot of oil. 200 years worth, at our current rate of consumption, is some 14 trillion barrels, and there is precisely no way there are those kind of reserves just lying around just waiting to be found.
We are going to change our ways in the forseeable future, either willingly or by default. If we started yesterday to undergo a complete paradigm change regarding our use of energy, at the fastest rate possible, the effects would still be dreadful, and it is too little too late anyway.
Since we are still muddling around trying to maintain the status quo that we could not afford 35 years ago, all the while getting the petroleum on which we rely on seemingly endless credit, the question is simply when it will all go to hell.
Every time an economic system has wound up this far behind the power curve, it has imploded. At some point, the dollar is fated to revert to its inherent value, which is, in fact, zero.
If the US of A was self-sufficient, the results of such a default would be catastrophic. This, however, is overly optimistic, since we are anything but self-sufficient.
Despite the extent to which we are impressed with ourselves, cutting off imports of petroleum (as well as everything else) we cannot afford will result in complete shutdown of major portions of the US economy. There are going to be a lot of very hungry people.
At any rate, if we chose to develop the capacity to use sunlight to generate a million barrels a day of 100 octane gasoline, it would not be enough to affect the overall equation.
If we focus on changing our way of life so we do not need all the petroleum or petroleum substute, it might make things a little better when the spigot is turned off, but the likelihood of that is effectively zero.
Well said.
Winsor,
While enlightening I refuse to belive the outcome is already decided.
To be sure change is coming. Those most affected will be those who rely on the government to earn a living, either directly or indirectly. That option will be curtailed severely, and the ripple effect will be huge. Some of it will be offset by the end of the boomers and their load on the budget.
We also have a history of getting what we need/want. We won't sit back idley.
It is later than you think...just not too late.
Please don't dent the planet.
Destinations by Roxanne
Destinations by Roxanne
winsor 236
Winsor,
While enlightening I refuse to belive the outcome is already decided.
To be sure change is coming. Those most affected will be those who rely on the government to earn a living, either directly or indirectly. That option will be curtailed severely, and the ripple effect will be huge. Some of it will be offset by the end of the boomers and their load on the budget.
We also have a history of getting what we need/want. We won't sit back idley.
It is later than you think...just not too late.
While enlightening I refuse to belive the outcome is already decided.
To be sure change is coming. Those most affected will be those who rely on the government to earn a living, either directly or indirectly. That option will be curtailed severely, and the ripple effect will be huge. Some of it will be offset by the end of the boomers and their load on the budget.
We also have a history of getting what we need/want. We won't sit back idley.
It is later than you think...just not too late.
In 'The Last Starfighter,' the bad guy aliens are on the losing end of the battle.
The First Officer type turns to the CIC alien and says "what do we do now?"
"We die."
None of our options are much better. With 6+ billion humanoids on this planet in various shapes and sizes, the logistical requirements for mere survival are significant indeed. Even when awash in free energy (you need only stick a straw in the earth and suck it up), there were all too many at or below subsistance level.
Take away the seemingly unending supply of fossil fuels, and the equation tips nastily in favor of a partial-extinction scenario.
The discovery of oil and its many uses was an unimaginable boon for a century or so, but it has also planted the seeds of our inevitable demise.
If we were all on the same page, committed to a common vision of survival of our species, we might have hope for a sustainable future. We are not, and we do not.
Like a supertanker aimed at a reef at flank speed, you could still have time for a leisurely lunch and dessert, and the outcome would be unavoidable.
I agree that Bob Hoover's recommendation to fly as far through the crash as possible applies. Unfortunately, those who are in charge either have no idea how dire is our predicament or they despair of a viable solution. I suspect the former is the case, though I could not criticize the latter.
As the F-86 test pilot said when his plane began to do a backflip onto the runway, 'tower, this will be a full-stop."
I wish I was wrong, but I'm not.
BSBD,
Winsor
GeorgiaDon 381
I can see why you sign off with "BSBD" and not "cheers".
Not that I disagree with you.
Don
Not that I disagree with you.
Don
_____________________________________
Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)
Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)
billvon 3,121
>Take away the seemingly unending supply of fossil fuels, and the equation tips nastily
>in favor of a partial-extinction scenario.
Agreed - right now. But that may not last. The Stone Age didn't end because stone became scarce, and the Bronze Age didn't end because they ran out of copper. And the Steam Age - well, we still have all the ingredients for that, and technically there are still plenty of "steam engines" out there in the form of powerplants and nautical turbines. But for cars and trains and boats, oil was just cheaper.
Likewise, we won't ever run out of oil. There will always be a little bit somewhere. But as time goes on the cost of extracting that will continue to rise until no one wants to pay for it. And so we will turn to better alternatives.
How quickly will that happen? THAT is the really important question. If it happens over the next 50 years then the "Oil Age" will be somewhat painful to leave, but eventually will just be a footnote in history books, akin to the Age of Steam - a useful technology that was superseded by something else.
If it happens over 10 years we're looking at Road Warrior time.
That, to me, is why ramping up the alternatives right now is so important. I agree that people, in general, don't give a shit. This forum is one example. But if things change that they do give a shit about - the cost of gasoline, or power - then they'll start making those changes simply because it's economical for them to do so. That can happen slowly or very rapidly, and the "slowly" side of things is infinitely preferable IMO.
>in favor of a partial-extinction scenario.
Agreed - right now. But that may not last. The Stone Age didn't end because stone became scarce, and the Bronze Age didn't end because they ran out of copper. And the Steam Age - well, we still have all the ingredients for that, and technically there are still plenty of "steam engines" out there in the form of powerplants and nautical turbines. But for cars and trains and boats, oil was just cheaper.
Likewise, we won't ever run out of oil. There will always be a little bit somewhere. But as time goes on the cost of extracting that will continue to rise until no one wants to pay for it. And so we will turn to better alternatives.
How quickly will that happen? THAT is the really important question. If it happens over the next 50 years then the "Oil Age" will be somewhat painful to leave, but eventually will just be a footnote in history books, akin to the Age of Steam - a useful technology that was superseded by something else.
If it happens over 10 years we're looking at Road Warrior time.
That, to me, is why ramping up the alternatives right now is so important. I agree that people, in general, don't give a shit. This forum is one example. But if things change that they do give a shit about - the cost of gasoline, or power - then they'll start making those changes simply because it's economical for them to do so. That can happen slowly or very rapidly, and the "slowly" side of things is infinitely preferable IMO.
Quote
How quickly will that happen? THAT is the really important question. If it happens over the next 50 years then the "Oil Age" will be somewhat painful to leave, but eventually will just be a footnote in history books, akin to the Age of Steam - a useful technology that was superseded by something else.
If it happens over 10 years we're looking at Road Warrior time.
wouldn't we just revert back to the Coal Age? Plenty of that around. We won't like it much, but probably prefer it to Mad Max.
billvon 3,121
>wouldn't we just revert back to the Coal Age?
Perhaps. We might go all the way back to the Steam Age (which sort of overlaps) - but there may be better options by then.
Perhaps. We might go all the way back to the Steam Age (which sort of overlaps) - but there may be better options by then.
Quote>wouldn't we just revert back to the Coal Age?
Perhaps. We might go all the way back to the Steam Age (which sort of overlaps) - but there may be better options by then.
I do have in my mind a remake where BV protects his home of PV cells from a rowdy looking gang of prius drivers.
billvon 3,121
>I do have in my mind a remake where BV protects his home of PV cells from a rowdy
>looking gang of prius drivers.
With my gang of steampunk henchmen. While Tina Turner directs her army of mutants to storm the moat.
>looking gang of prius drivers.
With my gang of steampunk henchmen. While Tina Turner directs her army of mutants to storm the moat.
Bolas 5
Quote>I do have in my mind a remake where BV protects his home of PV cells from a rowdy
>looking gang of prius drivers.
With my gang of steampunk henchmen. While Tina Turner directs her army of mutants to storm the moat.
A moat filled with your homebrew..
Stupidity if left untreated is self-correcting
If ya can't be good, look good, if that fails, make 'em laugh.
If ya can't be good, look good, if that fails, make 'em laugh.
JerryBaumchen 1,469
Hi winsor,
Great posts, both of them.
I do not know if you have ever read The Long Emergency, but I would recommend it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Emergency
I do not agree with everything that he says, but I do think he is ~90% correct.
Some folks think that human-kind will not survive the end of oil.
And some of us were talking about this stuff back in the '70's.
JerryBaumchen
Great posts, both of them.
I do not know if you have ever read The Long Emergency, but I would recommend it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Emergency
I do not agree with everything that he says, but I do think he is ~90% correct.
Some folks think that human-kind will not survive the end of oil.
And some of us were talking about this stuff back in the '70's.
JerryBaumchen
No, but in a couple of million years it will expand into a red giant swallowing the earth.
I was planning on being dead then, but on second thought, I think I will hang around and wait to see it......
Life, the Universe, and Everything
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