Tornados, and Budget cuts at NOAA

[lawrocket 3]

Yep. And we want to be able to provide severe weather warnings worldwide? That's fine.

it seems as though a polar orbiting weather satellite is useful for climate research. Which is what the instruments are mainly tailored for.

Kallend's whole initial point was that severe wearther warnings are being cut and the GOP is cutting them. I pointed out that severe weather is a pretty low priority by the NOAA itself.

So I'd agree that climate research is being cut. But severe weather being cut by the GOP? Seems both sides are doing it. NOAA, too.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[ryoder 1,590]

Who would have thought that weather could be such a hot topic?

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[quade 4]

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Yep. And we want to be able to provide severe weather warnings worldwide? That's fine.

That's only part of the equation. We, the United States of America, need to know the weather around the world for a variety of reasons. It's about data collection, which serves a number of critical areas including the US military.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[quade 4]

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Who would have thought that weather could be such a hot topic?

It's nearly mind boggling. Some of the folks arguing -against- weather data collection from one of the primary sources just points out how politicized just about every topic has become by some folks.

Seriously, it's ridiculous.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[lawrocket 3]

Of course. One of the satellites that NOAA has been given the responsibility for is a joint NOAA, NASA and DoD satellite. It's like an all-in-one. I pointed it out earlier.

So I'm not arguing against that. It is what it is. According to mpohl, that makes me dimwitted because I stop at calling it what it is and not making the stratch that the GOP wants to kill people.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[quade 4]

I don't think you're dimwitted.

I think you do what you do, you take a side (it doesn't really matter which one) and argue it. And I don't really mind that at all.

What I do mind is when some people on this forum decide that whatever user "A" says is automatically wrong and therefore must absolutely argue with that person (to the death!) whatever his position might be.

I really don't know what's up with that and especially when they decide to argue from a fairly uninformed position about stuff they really appear to not have a clue about.

Seriously, if user "A" said "black," they'd automatically say "white" without knowing if the conversation was about racial issues or chess.

Again, I just don't' get that.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[Meso 38]

In regards to Satellite vs Radar - There is too much focus solely in this thread on supercells and tornadoes. What about hurricanes? Hurricanes are far more costly in general than tornadoes, and hurricanes are almost only monitored via satellite.

Radar is useless in hurricane forecasting as it will need to be hours from landfall before US radar picks it up. But advances in satellite can help in recognizing patterns like EWRC (Eyewall Replacement Cycles) and aid in the forecasting of the storms.


While it is radar and spotters and not satellite that is used when issuing tornado warnings, you need to look at the bigger picture. When forecasting and issuing warnings or watches, you need as much data as you can get. Satellite is very useful. But I think satellite is definitely more used in hurricanes.

Remember that climate research is extremely important to the accuracy of weather models. Particularly medium to long range models used by agriculture.

[kallend 2,180]

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Yep. And we want to be able to provide severe weather warnings worldwide? That's fine.

The USA does not exist in isolation from the rest of the world. Disturbances off the African coast can and do lead to damaging hurricanes in the USA. Disturbances in the arctic and north Pacific lead to blizzards in the USA. Disturbances in the Gulf and central Pacific lead to severe weather in the midwest and plains states. SATELLITES are needed to monitor these.

The press is reporting that the weekend's tornado outbreak in OK, KS, MO resulted in far fewer casualties than would normally be expected for a system of this size, THANKS TO EARLIER WARNING than previously available.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kallend 2,180]

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So I'd agree that climate research is being cut. But severe weather being cut by the GOP? Seems both sides are doing it. NOAA, too.

From the OP:

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Fascinating that Rep. Jeb Hensaerling (R, Texas) voted in favor of cutting the NOAA budget to study violent storms and storm prediction. He also voted to slash more than $500 million from the budget for weather prediction satellites. And he supported a GOP attempt to cut funding for FEMA, which helps people get through disasters like the tornado that just struck his district.

I hope he doesn't now try to get federal disaster assistance.

We know that Mitt Romney thinks it "simply immoral" to send disaster relief to communities struck by tornados. He said it explicitly during the June 13 2011 GOP debate in answer to a question by moderator John King.

I notice the Sen Cornyn (R, TX) has now pledged that federal aid will be available to Texas for the tornado damage. HYPOCRITE.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

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The USA does not exist in isolation

Thanks. It's a great point.

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Disturbances off the African coast can and do lead to damaging hurricanes in the USA

And nice photos of disturbances from the satellites we have up there in geostationary orbit.

And we get data on the ENSO and on the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations from these polar orbiting satellites that provide data. And sea temperature data from satellites and buoys that can help more accurately predict a hurricane's projected track. And we send in C-130s and a P-3 Orion to measure barometric pressure and windspeeds and also to test the vomit reflexes of airmen.

So as I wrote previously, satellites are but a part of a system. They can provide the earliest warning of hurricanes to keep track of. Hurricanes used to be predicted with a barometer and other observations (i.e., multiple altitude clouds coming from the northeast) and suddenly increased swells. Even the Galveston hurricane in 1900 put out hurricane warnings the day before the hurricane hit based on data observations and reports.

I LIKE that we have satellites to track this stuff. I'm a weather and climate junkie and a space junkie, so weather satellites are the kinda things that I would fund because I think they're cool and they give my pseudointellectual self stuff to enjoy.

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The press is reporting that the weekend's tornado outbreak in OK, KS, MO resulted in far fewer casualties than would normally be expected for a system of this size, THANKS TO EARLIER WARNING than previously available.

Correct. And we may get earlier warnings yet with additional data points. But notice that we are getting earlier warnings with existing data points. We can follow disturbances off the horn of Africa all the way across the Atlantic. And I understand that many of our satellites are getting long in the tooth and need to be replaced. We also want to try to replace them well before they die on us because we may have another fairing fail to separate on a launch and have to try to launch a new satellite.

I understand these things. And I understand that there are middle grounds. (Truth be told, nothing adds to the cost of a satellite like cutting the budget for it). And while the scientists make their cases about what gets the money, in the end the control of the purse strings is a political affair and we don't have the money to give everyone everything they want - or maybe even need.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[lawrocket 3]

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I notice the Sen Cornyn (R, TX) has now pledged that federal aid will be available to Texas for the tornado damage. HYPOCRITE.

Two things:

(1) He's a senator. He's got no business pledging on behalf of the executive branch.
(2) I didn't see what he said about cutting disaster relief, but I would not be surprised if he wanted it slashed.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Meso 38]

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They can provide the earliest warning of hurricanes to keep track of. Hurricanes used to be predicted with a barometer and other observations (i.e., multiple altitude clouds coming from the northeast) and suddenly increased swells. Even the Galveston hurricane in 1900 put out hurricane warnings the day before the hurricane hit based on data observations and reports.

Ship reports are were also extremely important in the previous forecasting of hurricanes, BUT - when it approaches the coast, especially a coastline that is densely populated, surface reports and buoy reports are not going to be able to show a clear depiction of any changes in movement or progression of EWRCs.

Satellite is vital in following EWRCs, and eye wall replacement cycles are still very much a mystery and a lot of research still needs to be done into their duration.

It's just not practical these days to even consider that bouy, ship and swell data would be sufficient to forecast hurricanes or issue warnings.

You would need to evacuate the whole east coast for a storm that could hit anywhere from S. FL to New York. And with the EWRC, it is a vital part of predicting the strength of a hurricane. It may appear to be weakening due to surface reports, but quality satellites will be able to better show a secondary eyewall forming and a following reintensification.

A days warning is most certainly not enough, and the warnings then were also inaccurate. For example, the wind radius of a hurricane changes vastly between storms and so does the speed, and given that they are constantly changing in both these aspects, a storm that could be moving 12mph and have a wind radius of 200 miles, in 12 hours could be moving at 20mph and have a radius of 300 miles of hurricane force winds.

It's all about continuing to advance the technology, both model algorithms and satellite. Personally I'm an obsessive model watcher so I favour model data, but wouldn't say one or the other. Imagine in 1900 if they had said "Well now we got warnings up in a day, excellent... Now we can relax and not do everything we can to better it."

[popsjumper 2]

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The purpose and value of weather satellites is not in dispute by anyone except you.

Thanks again for speaking for me.
Thanks for once again being so wrong.

Thanks again for speaking for the goobermint folks.
Thanks for once again being so wrong.

My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

[popsjumper 2]

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I think it best to leave budget priorities in a highly technical research area to those who know what they are doing

Okay. Mind if I hold you to this? Because I will and I better not read you mentioning about the budgeting for defense again. You aren't a defense expert and they know what needs money. You are talking yourself into a helluva corner and I'm merely providing you a chance to get out.

Meh...you're too kind.
Does, "Give 'em enough rope...." sound familiar?

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I personally think that there should ALWAYS be some oversight of people who would spend other peoples' money on themselves.

I agree with that. But, ahhhhh...that raises a question of degree of oversight.

My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

[popsjumper 2]

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I notice the Sen Cornyn (R, TX) has now pledged that federal aid will be available to Texas for the tornado damage. HYPOCRITE.

Two things:

(1) He's a senator. He's got no business pledging on behalf of the executive branch.
(2) I didn't see what he said about cutting disaster relief, but I would not be surprised if he wanted it slashed.

Two things:
(1) He's a senator. His apathetic, uncaring constituents have no idea. All they hear is "I'm gonna take care of you." THAT gets votes.
(2) He's a senator. 'Nuff said.

My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

[kallend 2,180]

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The purpose and value of weather satellites is not in dispute by anyone except you.

Thanks again for speaking for me.
Thanks for once again being so wrong.

Thanks again for speaking for the goobermint folks.
Thanks for once again being so wrong.

It's a bit early to have started drinking, even for you.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

I have absolutely ZERO disagreement with you. However, I tend to take issue with people who make statements inferring (or outright stating) that without satellites we are in the dark, weatherwise.

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Imagine in 1900 if they had said "Well now we got warnings up in a day, excellent... Now we can relax and not do everything we can to better it."

Of course. It would be bad. But let's look at things: "I know, we can give 4 days of advance notice of severe weather events. But with another few billion per year we can get 100 hours of advance notice. It may be enough time to move trailer homes to some unpopulated area and attract tornadoes."

"Well, the weather forecasting centers also want a billion per year. Add to that the shoreline folks. I've only got a few billion, but everyone's budget requests are more than double of what I have."

It would be nice to be free spending and be able to afford it all. This is where choices come in. And no, there are no good choices.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,180]

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It would be nice to be free spending and be able to afford it all. This is where choices come in. And no, there are no good choices.

Cut the defense budget by 1% and you have more than paid for the entire NOAA budget.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[mnealtx 0]

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It would be nice to be free spending and be able to afford it all. This is where choices come in. And no, there are no good choices.

Cut the defense budget by 1% and you have more than paid for the entire NOAA budget.

Given that Defense *IS* being cut, why are you complaining, again?

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[lawrocket 3]

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It would be nice to be free spending and be able to afford it all. This is where choices come in. And no, there are no good choices.

Cut the defense budget by 1% and you have more than paid for the entire NOAA budget.

What part would you cut, John? In the pst you have written that "'Across the board cuts' are an indication of inability to set priorities and complete lack of leadership." So a 1% cut is out of the question.

So which parts would you cut? You can't answer that since you are not a defense expert and therefore have the same business commenting on defense cuts as I have commenting on NOAA cuts.

Or is there a different solution that you can see?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,180]

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It would be nice to be free spending and be able to afford it all. This is where choices come in. And no, there are no good choices.

Cut the defense budget by 1% and you have more than paid for the entire NOAA budget.

What part would you cut, John? ?

I'd leave that to the defense experts to prioritize.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

I dunno, john. It seems like you have a whole lotta disagreements with defense spending (i.e. The Iraq War) but it seems that military experts were in favor of it.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[champu 1]

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Of course. One of the satellites that NOAA has been given the responsibility for is a joint NOAA, NASA and DoD satellite. It's like an all-in-one. I pointed it out earlier.

It's actually not. JPSS is what is left of what was at one point going to be an all-in-one. It's a long story.

Regarding polar vs GEO, there's the usual trade offs of persistence, revisit time, path losses, and latency but some of the missions of NPP/JPSS (and the EOS satellites before them, and some ESA missions currently in polar orbits) make use of the unique geometry into the atmosphere available in LEO and would not be possible to accomplish from GEO.

Also, aside from model data for tornados, hurricanes, dust storms and other wind related weather phenomenon, LEO observations play a major part in UV indexes and wildfire mapping.

[kallend 2,180]

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I dunno, john. It seems like you have a whole lotta disagreements with defense spending (i.e. The Iraq War) but it seems that military experts were in favor of it.

See attached. Then tell me that everything is just fine the way it is.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

The US spends more on education than any other country. You're right - it's raw dollar total should be brought in line with the rest of the world.

I won't say your graph is a problem. I will tell you that I think it's a problem. But somparing what the US does with the rest of the world isn't something I view as compelling.

My wife is hotter than your wife.