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dreamdancer

To navigate economic storms we need better forecasting

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after pearl harbour many japanese and their kids were placed in camps. should they have refused?



I keep answering your questions but you don't answer mine.

What FDR did the Japanese was a travesty and an absolute violation of their rights. Refusal meant death.

Which, of course, is what tends to happen in systems where individuals must yield to society. And where they are called Japs and 1 percenters instead of people. It just makes it that much easier to villainize and victimize them.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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in the pseudo science of economics. about as relevant as obama's nobe



So now we see your true feelings about your initial post.



interesting...



From the initial post:
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It would allow regulators to issue the equivalent of weather-warnings - storms brewing over Lehman Brothers, credit default swaps and Greece. It would enable advice to be issued - keep a safe distance from Bear Stearns, sub-prime mortgages and Icelandic banks. And it would enable "what-if?" simulations to be run - if UK bank Northern Rock is the first domino, what will be the next?



Now you comment about
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the pseudo science of economics



So you've made an initial post about using forecasting but that it is pseudoscience.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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in the pseudo science of economics. about as relevant as obama's nobe



So now we see your true feelings about your initial post.



interesting...



From the initial post:
Quote

It would allow regulators to issue the equivalent of weather-warnings - storms brewing over Lehman Brothers, credit default swaps and Greece. It would enable advice to be issued - keep a safe distance from Bear Stearns, sub-prime mortgages and Icelandic banks. And it would enable "what-if?" simulations to be run - if UK bank Northern Rock is the first domino, what will be the next?



Now you comment about
Quote

the pseudo science of economics



So you've made an initial post about using forecasting but that it is pseudoscience.



Hmm

this kind of reminds me of the "just keep feeding them the rope" type of scenario
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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in the pseudo science of economics. about as relevant as obama's nobe



So now we see your true feelings about your initial post.



interesting...



From the initial post:
Quote

It would allow regulators to issue the equivalent of weather-warnings - storms brewing over Lehman Brothers, credit default swaps and Greece. It would enable advice to be issued - keep a safe distance from Bear Stearns, sub-prime mortgages and Icelandic banks. And it would enable "what-if?" simulations to be run - if UK bank Northern Rock is the first domino, what will be the next?



Now you comment about
Quote

the pseudo science of economics



So you've made an initial post about using forecasting but that it is pseudoscience.



nope, i've called 'economics' a pseudo science. not like physics is it? or maths?
stay away from moving propellers - they bite
blue skies from thai sky adventures
good solid response-provoking keyboarding

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in the pseudo science of economics. about as relevant as obama's nobel...



Finally............... You have attacked not only your own post, but have denuded all your points of debate. I'm actually surprised that it lasted this long.
Next topic you're gonna go on about, please.B|

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Mortgage derivatives were great till people stopped paying mortgages.



I disagree. Mortgage derivatives caused the creation of mortgages destined to fail.

In my humble opinion the problem resides with exotic derivatives that are not regulated and more importantly that people do not know how to value the derivative.

Credit default swaps and other mortgage derivatives created an artificial market for mortgages. Didn't matter what the underlying basics where, or if the mortgages were in any way solid.

The derivates market is largely unregulated and cannot be independently valued. Trading in entities you do not understand is never a good idea, yet it happens in the trillions of dollars. It is pure gambling.

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in the pseudo science of economics. about as relevant as obama's nobel...



Finally............... You have attacked not only your own post, but have denuded all your points of debate. I'm actually surprised that it lasted this long.
Next topic you're gonna go on about, please.B|


hey, if they get this thing up and running they may make a science of it. i'm sure the bank of england know what they're doing...
stay away from moving propellers - they bite
blue skies from thai sky adventures
good solid response-provoking keyboarding

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Mortgage derivatives were great till people stopped paying mortgages.



I disagree. Mortgage derivatives caused the creation of mortgages destined to fail.

In my humble opinion the problem resides with exotic derivatives that are not regulated and more importantly that people do not know how to value the derivative.

Credit default swaps and other mortgage derivatives created an artificial market for mortgages. Didn't matter what the underlying basics where, or if the mortgages were in any way solid.

The derivates market is largely unregulated and cannot be independently valued. Trading in entities you do not understand is never a good idea, yet it happens in the trillions of dollars. It is pure gambling.



every time they transacted they thought they were creating more money. more transactions - more money. until the transactions were so huge amongst themselves (trillions of units of currency) that there simply wasn't enough money in the entire system to make up their 1% fantasy world...

...whoops - straight into that crash barrier. look at all those wrecked cars...
stay away from moving propellers - they bite
blue skies from thai sky adventures
good solid response-provoking keyboarding

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bit of 'real' economics...

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The ultimatum game is a game often played in economic experiments in which two players interact to decide how to divide a sum of money that is given to them. The first player proposes how to divide the sum between the two players, and the second player can either accept or reject this proposal. If the second player rejects, neither player receives anything. If the second player accepts, the money is split according to the proposal. The game is played only once so that reciprocation is not an issue.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimatum_game
stay away from moving propellers - they bite
blue skies from thai sky adventures
good solid response-provoking keyboarding

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nope, i've called 'economics' a pseudo science. not like physics is it? or maths?



How the hell are you going to forecast it, then?

The burden is on you. How will it be forecast? How will it be accurate? What's the point of a forecast that is no more accurate than a Magic 8 ball?


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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bit of 'real' economics...

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The ultimatum game is a game often played in economic experiments in which two players interact to decide how to divide a sum of money that is given to them. The first player proposes how to divide the sum between the two players, and the second player can either accept or reject this proposal. If the second player rejects, neither player receives anything. If the second player accepts, the money is split according to the proposal. The game is played only once so that reciprocation is not an issue.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimatum_game



I never play with money. I learned about it. That enabled me to retire in 2008. "Healthy, wealthy, and retired."

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You or anyone else is not going to get a straight answer out of DD. He's a 'cut n' paste' kinda guy. I asked him straight-out what he does for a living and his response was generic skydiving videos. You might get a flip response stating you're either a commie or a homophobe.


Chuck

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I asked him straight-ouy what he does for a living and his response was generic skydiving videos.



yep, that's what i do - did you not like my work?



Your work? I haven't seen any 'work' out of you. Just a bunch of copying and pasting and you don't break a sweat doing that.


Chuck

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Mortgage derivatives were great till people stopped paying mortgages.



I disagree. Mortgage derivatives were caused t by the gov forcing banks to fund mortgages destined to fail.

In my humble opinion the problem resides with exotic derivatives that are not regulated and more importantly that people do not know how to value the derivative.

Credit default swaps and other mortgage derivatives created an artificial market for mortgages. Didn't matter what the underlying basics where, or if the mortgages were in any way solid.

The derivates market is largely unregulated and cannot be independently valued. Trading in entities you do not understand is never a good idea, yet it happens in the trillions of dollars. It is pure gambling.



the derivative market was created because of the gov forcing banks to make bad loans because every one deserves a home of their own
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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I asked him straight-ouy what he does for a living and his response was generic skydiving videos.



yep, that's what i do - did you not like my work?



Your work? I haven't seen any 'work' out of you. Just a bunch of copying and pasting and you don't break a sweat doing that.


Chuck



ah well, i could link more - but you've got your tinfoil hat stuck right down over your ears. don't fall off that horse now...
stay away from moving propellers - they bite
blue skies from thai sky adventures
good solid response-provoking keyboarding

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I asked him straight-ouy what he does for a living and his response was generic skydiving videos.



yep, that's what i do - did you not like my work?



Your work? I haven't seen any 'work' out of you. Just a bunch of copying and pasting and you don't break a sweat doing that.


Chuck



ah well, i could link more - but you've got your tinfoil hat stuck right down over your ears. don't fall off that horse now...



There's that quick, snappy smart-aleck response, I knew would come-out! You're a real piece of work.


Chuck

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I asked him straight-ouy what he does for a living and his response was generic skydiving videos.



yep, that's what i do - did you not like my work?



Your work? I haven't seen any 'work' out of you. Just a bunch of copying and pasting and you don't break a sweat doing that.


Chuck



ah well, i could link more - but you've got your tinfoil hat stuck right down over your ears. don't fall off that horse now...



Do you pay taxes in Thailand, or do you work for Bhat under the table?

If you do pay taxes, what is your feeling about supporting the King?

Do you pay taxes to the UK as an Ex-pat?

If you do pay UK taxes, what is your feeling about supporting the Queen?

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I asked him straight-ouy what he does for a living and his response was generic skydiving videos.



yep, that's what i do - did you not like my work?



Your work? I haven't seen any 'work' out of you. Just a bunch of copying and pasting and you don't break a sweat doing that.


Chuck



ah well, i could link more - but you've got your tinfoil hat stuck right down over your ears. don't fall off that horse now...



There's that quick, snappy smart-aleck response, I knew would come-out! You're a real piece of work.


Chuck



get back to me when you can produce a similar video...
stay away from moving propellers - they bite
blue skies from thai sky adventures
good solid response-provoking keyboarding

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I asked him straight-ouy what he does for a living and his response was generic skydiving videos.



yep, that's what i do - did you not like my work?



Your work? I haven't seen any 'work' out of you. Just a bunch of copying and pasting and you don't break a sweat doing that.


Chuck



ah well, i could link more - but you've got your tinfoil hat stuck right down over your ears. don't fall off that horse now...



There's that quick, snappy smart-aleck response, I knew would come-out! You're a real piece of work.


Chuck



get back to me when you can produce a similar video...



How do we know which one in those people videos is you? how do we know you are even in any of those vidos. You leave too many open ends. Your credibility is lacking.


Chuck

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I asked him straight-ouy what he does for a living and his response was generic skydiving videos.



yep, that's what i do - did you not like my work?



Your work? I haven't seen any 'work' out of you. Just a bunch of copying and pasting and you don't break a sweat doing that.


Chuck



ah well, i could link more - but you've got your tinfoil hat stuck right down over your ears. don't fall off that horse now...



There's that quick, snappy smart-aleck response, I knew would come-out! You're a real piece of work.


Chuck



get back to me when you can produce a similar video...



How do we know which one in those people videos is you? how do we know you are even in any of those vidos. You leave too many open ends. Your credibility is lacking.


Chuck



i filmed the video (all the tandems and all the aff). you know - camera on head and all that. then edited it...
stay away from moving propellers - they bite
blue skies from thai sky adventures
good solid response-provoking keyboarding

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