0
brenthutch

Looks like the fat lady has sung on AGW

Recommended Posts

Quote

Newton's laws miss quite a bit too.



Absolutely. You're providing a fine example. Presuming Newton's laws work in a relativity scale isn't right. Why, the Nobel Prize was just awarded to some dudes who discovered that gravity's effect ain't what it should be and expansion of the universe is accelerating.

Also, we know that relativity doesn't work on the level of subatomic particles and in places like black holes, where his equations result in maths that require a denominator of zero.

Likewise, quantum doesn't seem to be too effective with Newtonian mechanics or relativity. Hence, despite the popular notion of self-aggrandizing boobs, Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle does NOT apply to our everyday experience because Planck's constant isn't big enough.

Yet, this is the world of climate modeling. Where choices have to be made as far as providing weight of forcings. The millions of iterations of the thousands of known forcings have to be taken into account. Computer models are like quanta in that they describe predictions of probabilities using fundamental aspects of chemistry and physics.

BUT:

If the modeler is a a thousandth of a percent low in an estimated forcing weight (say, "the effect of increased winds on ablation of temperate glaciers") then we see a problem.

The underlying equations are there. But it's how they are put together. How they are weighted. Models going out 100 years depend on predicting future events and likelihoods.

Modeling climate is like coming up with a unifying theory of everything. It's like string theory - sounds cool and there are lots of predictions and things and it sure looks promising, but my goodness, we've been waiting for about 20 years for some developments and raw evidence that what you said was going to happen is happening. Give us the breakthrough and solid evidence of it.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


But do YOU really think that it is the goal of the EPA, whether stated or not, to "destroy our industry?"



As I said, I don't think they phrase it that way to themselves. I do think they're zealots in pursuit of a goal that's of questionable real impact, and they're willing to sacrifice our industry as part of achieving their "goal".
We are all engines of karma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
>As I said, I don't think they phrase it that way to themselves.

Yes, and I agreed. And also they may do things that cost our industry money, because often reducing pollution costs money vs. doing it in a dirty a manner as possible.

But I'm asking you about what you think their goals are. Do you really, honestly think that it is the goal of the EPA, whether stated or not, to "destroy our industry?" That rather than trying to protect the environment, their goal is the destruction of US industry?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


Do you really, honestly think that it is the goal of the EPA, whether stated or not, to "destroy our industry?



I've answered your question.

Quote


That rather than trying to protect the environment, their goal is the destruction of US industry?



I see them willing to destroy our industry to achieve their goal of protecting the environment in a way that's likely to be overkill on their part.

Are you focusing on my use of the word destroy here? Where am I not being clear?
We are all engines of karma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


Was your answer yes or no?



Your question, as phrased, isn't amenable to a fair simple yes/no answer, IMO.

Quote



Do I think they state it like that to themselves? No.

Do I think they're properly considering the economics of their policies? No.

Do I think they know that the economics of their policies are rightfully being called into question? Yes.

Do I think they're adequately addressing those questions? No.

Do I think they're knowingly not adequately addressing those questions? Yes.

Long winded answer...


We are all engines of karma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
>Your question, as phrased . . .

"As phrased?" You were the one who wrote that statement! I just asked you if you really believed it.

So far I've asked you four times if you really meant what you said, and you could not answer me. I think this is a good example of where this whole politicization of climate change gets us. You're probably a smart guy and you realize the the EPA really isn't "hell bent on destroying our industry." You're also probably pretty reasonable, and if someone said to you "the goal of governmental organization X is to destroy our industry/health/education here in the US!" you'd probably say "that's a little extreme don't you think?"

But all that rational behavior goes flying right out the window once climate change gets brought up - because a lot of people simply can't think rationally about it any more. Climate change is either the coming apocalypse or an evil plot by Obama, Al Gore and the EPA to destroy the United States. And there can be no middle ground - because if you "admit" that the other side might have a point, you "lose ground" and "the other side wins." Which is, of course, how politics works here in the US.

And if you want to play that game, fine, lots of people do. But just keep in mind that there is a huge chunk of scientists out there who don't play that game, to whom climate change is simply a phenomenon to be studied. And there is indeed broad agreement that our CO2 emissions have raised the average temperature of the planet. It's a fairly serious issue because average temperatures have a lot of impact on our water supplies, our farms, our coastal cities and our weather. There's a lot of work to do to determine how bad those effects will be (and indeed where it might actually benefit us) and that work is pretty important, because such knowledge is infinitely preferable to ignorance when it comes to planning for the future.

By taking positions such as yours you have effectively "checked out" of that part of the discussion, which is again fine. Just don't expect to be taken seriously by the people actually doing the work. Science always trumps political extremism in the long run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


"As phrased?" You were the one who wrote that statement! I just asked you if you really believed it.



I read back through my comments and found the quote I believe you're referring to:

Quote


Worse, we have an EPA that's hell bent on destroying our industry for no net effect on anything but our standard of living.



That's a casual summary I've found myself using lately. I can see where one could read I'm saying they're deliberately hell bent on doing so. I'm not saying that. Thanks for the feedback.

Quote


So far I've asked you four times if you really meant what you said,..



As defined above, I was not saying "deliberately" hell bent on destroying our industry, as I'm guessing that's what you read. Again, not an unreasonable thing for someone to read into that statement.

Quote


if someone said to you "the goal of governmental organization X is to destroy our industry/health/education here in the US!" you'd probably say "that's a little extreme don't you think?"



No, I don't think they're deliberately trying to do that. But, they most certainly aren't listening to those that are concerned they're on a path that will do just that. If that happens, whether they were deliberate or not in their attempts, the end result is the same.

Quote


And there can be no middle ground...



There has to be. That's my point.

Quote


And there is indeed broad agreement that our CO2 emissions have raised the average temperature of the planet.



By "our" CO2 emissions, or you referring to the US, or to the human race? If you are referring to US emissions being the cause of a planet wide increase in temperature, that's questionable. If you're referring to the human race as being the cause of that increase in temperature, that's more believable.

Should we do something about that? Absolutely. What should be done about that in practical terms? I haven't heard any ideas that will have any significant impact on the problem, other than going nuclear for our electrical grid. Even that won't have the impact desired with China and India massively increasing their footprints as their societies' quality of life increases.

Quote


By taking positions such as yours you have effectively "checked out" of that part of the discussion...



I haven't taken any position like you're describing. Nor have I subscribed to AGW alarmism. Since I don't subscribe to AGW alarmism, I'm deemed incompetent.

Quote


Science always trumps political extremism in the long run.



Agreed, science will trump, if allowed to operate as it should. There's alot more science that needs to be done here before AGW alarmist "conclusions" should be acted on to the extent the EPA is advocating. Do you really think the AGW model's predictions merit shutting down 8% of our electrical grid in the immediate near term, especially considering that might make the whole system unstable?
We are all engines of karma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

And there is indeed broad agreement that our CO2 emissions have raised the average temperature of the planet.



Really? Funny that the data doesn't support it, what with the temps being down since 98 while the CO2 continues to go up.

Did they find out who created the CO2 that caused the MWP, yet?

Quote

By taking positions such as yours you have effectively "checked out" of that part of the discussion, which is again fine.



Twaddle. Makes a nice smear against any skepticism, though.

Quote

Science always trumps political extremism in the long run.



Yup, that's true....not nearly as many folks believe the alarmists, now.
Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

>Your question, as phrased . . .

"As phrased?" You were the one who wrote that statement! I just asked you if you really believed it.

So far I've asked you four times if you really meant what you said, and you could not answer me. I think this is a good example of where this whole politicization of climate change gets us. You're probably a smart guy and you realize the the EPA really isn't "hell bent on destroying our industry." You're also probably pretty reasonable, and if someone said to you "the goal of governmental organization X is to destroy our industry/health/education here in the US!" you'd probably say "that's a little extreme don't you think?"

But all that rational behavior goes flying right out the window once climate change gets brought up - because a lot of people simply can't think rationally about it any more. Climate change is either the coming apocalypse or an evil plot by Obama, Al Gore and the EPA to destroy the United States. And there can be no middle ground - because if you "admit" that the other side might have a point, you "lose ground" and "the other side wins." Which is, of course, how politics works here in the US.

And if you want to play that game, fine, lots of people do. But just keep in mind that there is a huge chunk of scientists out there who don't play that game, to whom climate change is simply a phenomenon to be studied. And there is indeed broad agreement that our CO2 emissions have raised the average temperature of the planet. It's a fairly serious issue because average temperatures have a lot of impact on our water supplies, our farms, our coastal cities and our weather. There's a lot of work to do to determine how bad those effects will be (and indeed where it might actually benefit us) and that work is pretty important, because such knowledge is infinitely preferable to ignorance when it comes to planning for the future.

By taking positions such as yours you have effectively "checked out" of that part of the discussion, which is again fine. Just don't expect to be taken seriously by the people actually doing the work. Science always trumps political extremism in the long run.



Really Bill? Isn't your BS alarm going of with that one? Why don't you chastise Kalland and Amazon with the same sage counsel?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


Why don't you chastise Kalland and Amazon with the same sage counsel?



billvon thinks it's ok for Kallend, Amazon, and certain others to make their types of PAs, because he doesn't consider them to be full blown PAs. They're just "near-PAs". I don't think it's balanced, but that's how he's choosing to run the site.
We are all engines of karma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote



Couple this with the CERES results showing the Earth is losing much more heat than predicted by AGW models, one can reasonably question what AGW alarmists are saying.



JUst as a public service announcement, the editor of the paper which StreetScooby refers to has said the paper should not have been published and that there were problems with the review process. The editor resigned as a result.

Another group analyzed the same data and showed that in fact the existing data fit some of the models well. The original authors studied those same models, but neglected to include them in the original paper.

http://www.mdpi.com/search/?q=&s_journal=remotesensing&s_volume=&s_authors=trenberth&s_section=&s_issue=&s_article_type=&s_special_issue=&s_page=&s_search=Search

This has been discussed previously in Speaker Corner, so it is a mystery to me why it keeps geetting repeating without at least mentioning that there might be some wee problem with the original paper.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


This has been discussed previously in Speaker Corner, so it is a mystery to me why it keeps geetting repeating without at least mentioning that there might be some wee problem with the original paper.



Thanks for sharing this. I haven't seen it until now. I've downloaded the paper, and will read it.
We are all engines of karma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But do YOU really think that it is the goal of the EPA, whether stated or not, to "destroy our industry?"



I will take a shot here

No, I do not but, I do feel they, and those like you, have a world view that you (and them) feel they need to push on the rest of us.

The end result would be a short of destruction should you fully get your way.
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

No, I do not but, I do feel they, and those like you, have a world view that you (and them) feel they need to push on the rest of us.

The end result would be a short of destruction should you fully get your way.



This is the crux of the problem. Environmentalists also think that the other side's worldview is flawed and will lead to destruction. The answer will have to lie somewhere in the middle.

- Dan G

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

No, I do not but, I do feel they, and those like you, have a world view that you (and them) feel they need to push on the rest of us.

The end result would be a short of destruction should you fully get your way.



This is the crux of the problem. Environmentalists also think that the other side's worldview is flawed and will lead to destruction. The answer will have to lie somewhere in the middle.



Not really

One side is forcing their life style on others

You can live as you want to

But leave the rest of us alone

That said, I still support a level of oversite to keep things clean and informed

But this chicken little tactic of the AWG crowd is way over the top

Thank goodness more and more people are learning this
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

so it is a mystery to me why it keeps geetting repeating without at least mentioning that there might be some wee problem with the original paper



Because have you EVER heard of an editor publishing a paper and then, instead of the normal exchange of letters, e-mails and phone calls to improve a paper as is the normal case, publicly resigns with a manifesto against a paper?

The paper had problems. As does almost every paper. The science gets improved and papers get improved again and again over days, months and years. That's the process, isn't it? And yet an editor decided to TRUMP that process publically.

It is indeed unfortunate that it transpired this way because at least one of the CRU hack e-mails suggested that they would seek to get rid of editors who published unfriendly papers. And note the criticisms of the paper are mainly ad hominem.

I like middle ground. I think the paper was overly hyped by the skpetics and I found that the behavior of the alarmists was fucking disgusting and juvenile. Take a look at this piece of tripe from generally respectable scientists.

http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2011/09/spencer-faulty-science

So tell me where the criticisms are of the science of the paper. That's right - there ARE no criticisms. This is MY problem.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Not really

One side is forcing their life style on others

You can live as you want to

But leave the rest of us alone



I'm not an enviro nut, but I'm trying to get you to see the other side. In the enviro mind, polluters are also forcing their lifestyle on others. They are doing by polluting the air and water that others breathe and drink. Polluters can't just live their life without affecting others because we all share the same planet. Both sides want to force the other to live a different lifestyle because no matter how you look at it, we all affect each other.

- Dan G

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
>I will take a shot here. No, I do not . . .

Good! I applaud you for not falling prey to the worst of the political extremism here.

>I do feel they, and those like you, have a world view that you (and them) feel they
>need to push on the rest of us. The end result would be a short of destruction should
>you fully get your way.

We've been hearing this for 40 years.

Lee Iacocca: If the “EPA does not suspend the catalytic converter rule, it will cause Ford to shut down.” (1972)

Chrysler VP: Fuel economy standards might “outlaw a number of engine lines and car models including most full-size sedans and station wagons. It would restrict the industry to producing subcompact size cars—or even smaller ones—within five years.” (1974)

Ford executive: If CAFE becomes law, the move could result “in a Ford product line consisting either of all sub-Pinto sized vehicles…” (late 1970's)

Today we have CAFE, the EPA, CARB, and catalytic converters. All those horrible things that the car companies warned us about (just as you are warning us now) have come to pass. Take a look at the street next time you're driving somewhere. Is Ford gone? Are SUV's gone? Are all vehicles "smaller than subcompacts?"

Nope. For 40 years people have been saying "the EPA will DESTROY American industry if they get their way!" And for 40 years they've gotten their way - and industry has done just fine. We now have bigger cars, and more cars, than anyone else on the planet. We are between 50% and 90% cleaner than we were 40 years ago. We are generating about 40% more power than we did 40 years ago.

Not a bad thing to look forward to, eh?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And for 25 years people have been saying that we'll have oceans inundating the coasts, snow will be a thing of the past, bigger-stronger-more intense-more-damaging-more-frequent hurricanes will pound our shores, etc, from AGW. Meanwhile, sea levels may be dropping (which we're told is also consistent), blizzards are whacking (which they now tell us they've predicted all along) and a hurricane hasn't made landfall in the US since September 2008 (Hurricane Ike) - that's 1130 days now. Katrina was the last "strong hurricane" to hit, and Hurricane Andrew was the last category 5 to hit (meaning they are temporarily getting smaller, weaker, less intense and less frequent.

The track record is about the same, bill. Plenty of us can recognize hyperbole when we see it. AGW alarmism is the same as automaker alarmism. I think it's fair to question both.

Note: Irene did not record winds of 74mph when it made landfall in the US. It was a tropical storm. It was a WET tropical storm and caused significant damage due to flooding from heavy rain. Unfortunately, the flooding risk from tropical storm wasn't really explained as storm surges and heavy winds were considered to be the big threat - not flooding from the northwest portion of a tropical storm.

That's my problem, too - focusing on what makes good newsbite images of ocean waves rolling over houses and wind blowing off roofs. Not something so subtle as a bunch of rain. Shoot, how many people when from the coast (which did relatively well) to the inland areas that got clobbered?


My wife is hotter than your wife.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Not really

One side is forcing their life style on others

You can live as you want to

But leave the rest of us alone



I'm not an enviro nut, but I'm trying to get you to see the other side. In the enviro mind, polluters are also forcing their lifestyle on others. They are doing by polluting the air and water that others breathe and drink. Polluters can't just live their life without affecting others because we all share the same planet. Both sides want to force the other to live a different lifestyle because no matter how you look at it, we all affect each other.



I see the other side
I was on the other side
Then the bs started to stink
Oh
and you are and enviro nut IMO

Oh

and of course I want my kids and grand kids to choke on polluted air and get the drizzilin shits from polluted water.

Thats just the way I am
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
>And for 25 years people have been saying that we'll have oceans inundating the
>coasts, snow will be a thing of the past, bigger-stronger-more intense-more-damaging-
>more-frequent hurricanes will pound our shores, etc, from AGW.

No serious scientist has been saying that, within 25 years, oceans would "inundate the coasts."

No serious scientist has been saying that, within 25 years, snow would be a "thing of the past."

>Plenty of us can recognize hyperbole when we see it.

Yep. I see a bit of it in your first paragraph.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

>And for 25 years people have been saying that we'll have oceans inundating the
>coasts, snow will be a thing of the past, bigger-stronger-more intense-more-damaging-
>more-frequent hurricanes will pound our shores, etc, from AGW.



No serious scientist has been saying that, within 25 years, oceans would "inundate the coasts."



He didn't claim that oceans would 'inundate the coast in 25 years', he said that people have been claiming FOR 25 years that the oceans would inundate the coasts.

And regarding that...

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato, January 2011

"Gravity satellite data, although too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century."

Quote

No serious scientist has been saying that, within 25 years, snow would be a "thing of the past."



I refer you again to the difference between "within 25 years" and "for 25 years"

As to the other.... link.

"According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said."

Quote

Quote

>Plenty of us can recognize hyperbole when we see it.



Yep. I see a bit of it in your first paragraph.



Sure about that?
Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

0