Libya have we given global Jihad a helping hand?

[Skyrad 0]

As barking as Gaddafi was and as big a sponsor of terrorism he has been he was right about one thing. His claims that Islamist Jihadists were among the rebels is undoubtedly true. Anyone who saw pictures of the fall of his compound would have seen masses of people walking away with some pretty sweet weapons systems.

At the start of the rebellion Libya contained 20,000 SAM (Surface to Air Missile) systems most of which were MANPADS (can be carried and operated by one man). They are now in the hands of the rebels, each one able to take down not only a military aircraft but also civilian airliners.
How long will it be before we see this threat become a reality? We still don't know which way Libya will fall but we do know that the world is a lot less safer than it was at the beginning of this conflict.

Think about the scenarios (which are endless)
Stick a couple of SAMS in the back of a car, drive it eastwards across a unguarded, unobserved, unmarked border in the desert and you're in Eygpt, through a 200 meter tunnel and you're in Gaza.

Take you car south or west and you can be anywhere very quickly.
You don't even have to worry about smuggling the systems into the USA or Europe simply get on a boat, head into the Med or the Atlantic and pick a airliner as it flys overhead.

So was it worth it? Maybe its to early to tell but what are you prepared to pay for the freedom of the people of Libya?

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[Andy9o8 2]

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At the start of the rebellion Libya contained 20,000 SAM (Surface to Air Missile) systems most of which were MANPADS (can be carried and operated by one man). They are now in the hands of the rebels, each one able to take down not only a military aircraft but also civilian airliners.
How long will it be before we see this threat become a reality? We still don't know which way Libya will fall but we do know that the world is a lot less safer than it was at the beginning of this conflict.

I think you're under-estimating the extent to which state sponsors of terrorism have already proliferated such weapons to the terrorist network, both directly and via the international arms black market.

[Skyrad 0]

So you don't think that unsecured 20,000 MANPADS some of which may easily fall in to Jihadist hands is anything to worry about?
Also there are plenty of loons out there who are radicalised and don't belong to a terrorist organisation and may therefore be well off the radar.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[Skyrad 0]

This is interesting

http://www.ifri.org/files/CFE/CFEbolkcom.pdf

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[Andy9o8 2]

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So you don't think that unsecured 20,000 MANPADS some of which may easily fall in to Jihadist hands is anything to worry about?

Hey! Don't "spin" my words - I didn't say that. You raise a valid concern, but I think you over-estimate how much the threat has increased between the pre-revolution reality and the post-revolution reality. Put another way, you over-estimate just how much of those 20K missiles (are u sure about that #?) will be diverted away from whatever "government" the rebels eventually morph into. I'd predict the rebels will hoard as many of those weapons as they can, in preparation for having those weapons in the Libyan arsenal when they take over the government.

The key is releasing currently-frozen Libyan assets to the rebels, so that they can fund the administration of the country's infrastructure, as well as putting the rebels into control of Libyan oil production and revenues therefrom. The sooner that happens, the less motivation the rebels will have to sell the missiles to generate quick cash.

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Also there are plenty of loons out there who are radicalised and don't belong to a terrorist organisation and may therefore be well off the radar.

Yeah, but they're Christians, so they don't count.

[Skyrad 0]

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Hey! Don't "spin" my words - I didn't say that.

I didn't say you did, I was just asking the question.

As far as I can ascertain the figure 20K is correct. There are very many sources out there all of whom are agreeing on the figure.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[wayneflorida 0]

Wonder why Gadafi didn't use them against NATO?
Maybe he thought NATO would then help the rebels out with ground troops.

With a knock down ratio of 50 to 1 he could have taken out 400 NATO planes. Of course NATO would just start dropping from an altitude beyond range of the Missles.

If he gets hanged it might be worth the one billion+
you and I have spent.

[Skyrad 0]

Mmm... I'd most likely think different if I lived in Libya but to tell you the truth I'd rather the'd spent it on more Police on our streets and education.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca