Is the world economy gonna fall on its ass again soon?

[billvon 3,116]

>Is the world economy gonna fall on its ass again soon?

Yep. There will be another recovery cycle, as people slowly gain confidence in the economy and start investing again. Then there will be another boom in technology or housing or biotech or whatever. People will overextend themselves, start overvaluing stuff to ridiculous levels. Then it will collapse again.

In other words, it will keep doing the same thing it's been doing for a few centuries now.

For a somewhat earlier inflationary futures bubble and collapse, google Tulip Mania. For much more depth on this, the book "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" provides a great overview.

[jclalor 12]

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If the world economy collapses, it has to be the fault of the Jews, they controll everything.

I landed off yesterday and I just know some Jew had to have been behind it.

I could mock you for using irrelvant points, and accusing me of racism, but you are simply not worth it.

You and your croonie post whore mates are everything that is wrong with this website, you are more interted in attacking others that discussing topics.

When you post in other threads that the Jews are behind 9/11, WW2, Rick Sanchez loosing his job and the present economic situation, you then lose ALL credibility. Why don't you go to one of the hundreds of anti semetic sites that cater to you and your kind.

I have no patientces with racist, if you post racist crap, you then have to deal with the consequences.

[rhys 0]

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When you post in other threads that the Jews are behind 9/11, WW2, Rick Sanchez loosing his job and the present economic situation, you then lose ALL credibility. Why don't you go to one of the hundreds of anti semetic sites that cater to you and your kind.

I have no patientces with racist, if you post racist crap, you then have to deal with the consequences.

So the rothschild cartel represent all jews in your world?


Is that how you live your life? Judging a whole group of millions of people by one bad egg?

I certainly don't, and if that is how you are going to portray me then I can't be bothered with you.

The same goes for the cunts on here that think I believe the entire american government are crooks, There are plenty of crooks in the US government, and my government, but that does not make every government worker complicit. Humand are humans and corruption is not limited to one group or race or individual.

It is everywhere and you need to be more aware of it, Once you are you will begin to join the dots.

That attitude is for bigoted wankers, I am open to suggestion and so should everybody be.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[kelpdiver 2]

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That attitude is for bigoted wankers, I am open to suggestion and so should everybody be.

too bad you're not open to evidence.

[rhys 0]

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too bad you're not open to evidence.

Bullshit, I am open to anything.

You just throw insults and remarks around without supporting them.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[turtlespeed 226]

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too bad you're not open to evidence.

Bullshit, I am open to anything.

You just throw insults and remarks around without supporting them.

No - you aren't. You are open to lies and half truths.

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[rhys 0]

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No - you aren't. You are open to lies and half truths.

Give us the guts then you smelly exoskelleton.

There certainly is a fishy smell going on in this end of the thread.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[turtlespeed 226]

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No - you aren't. You are open to lies and half truths.

Give us the guts then you smelly exoskelleton.

There certainly is a fishy smell going on in this end of the thread.

I am not about to try and repeat everything eveyone has already given you that disputes against your conspiracy theory.

But nice, what - veiled PA? Not even worth mentioning.

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[mnealtx 0]

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too bad you're not open to evidence.

Bullshit, I am open to anything that comes from Alex Jones and the Truthers.

Fixed that for you.

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You just throw insults and remarks around without supporting them.

You mean stuff like 'path of least resistance' and 'nanothermite', or other stuff?

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[kelpdiver 2]

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too bad you're not open to evidence.

Bullshit, I am open to anything.

You just throw insults and remarks around without supporting them.

you only like "truths" when they're contrary to common belief. Basically, you like cutting edge 'reality.' If more than 10% believe something, they're being fooled by the Bush-Jew cabal that runs the world.

[turtlespeed 226]

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The largest retailer in the world having to eat $3 billion in theft this year can't be helping things

Imagine that!

You mean they DON'T rent equipment?!

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[kelpdiver 2]

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The largest retailer in the world having to eat $3 billion in theft this year can't be helping things

Imagine that!

You mean they DON'T rent equipment?!

I can't remember if "returns" are included in shrinkage in inventory accounting. Who knows? It could be millions more due to the renter population.

[rhys 0]

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You mean stuff like 'path of least resistance' and 'nanothermite', or other stuff?

We considering I have posted peer reviewed journals on the subjects, I see you are exposing your utter ignorance on the subject while attempting to belittle me at the same time.

You do have plenty of soldiers in you denying ignorant march for suppression of truth.

And you can continue to say my assertions are stupid, but millions of others have the same view, and it is now essential for the MSM report on the subject, as they have to try to keep the idiots thinking like idiots.

Meanwhile our movement for truth andd justice grows exponentially with the exposure of more and more evidence.

meanwhile you commend the spending of billions of dollars to cathc a couple of crooks.

Do you have a clue as to how much money your country spends catching one taliban?

It is estimated to be around 50 million $ per taliban soldier, with 35000 of them and growning (exponentially) due to your countries terrorist activity in the regon how long can your country afford to pay for this tripe? How can your economy, and people afford it?

You are lied to, and you soak it up like a spnge becaude you ignore the evident truth.

But no amount of peer pressure will make me fold to you.

If you give me credible evidence to say I am wrong, then we have a discussion.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[skipbelt 0]

when you say peer reviewed, did bill ayers get a crack at it ?

[mnealtx 0]

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You mean stuff like 'path of least resistance' and 'nanothermite', or other stuff?

We considering I have posted peer reviewed journals on the subjects, I see you are exposing your utter ignorance on the subject while attempting to belittle me at the same time.

Self-reviewed journals, you mean. Aren't those the same ones that can't seem to explain where the 'nano-thermite' came from, or how it got planted and how it magically wasn't affected by the collisions or fires?

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And you can continue to say my assertions are stupid, but millions of others have the same view, and it is now essential for the MSM report on the subject, as they have to try to keep the idiots thinking like idiots.

Wait...I thought that presentation to Congress was going to make all the difference? Oh, wait - that still hasn't happened, has it?

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Meanwhile our movement for truth andd justice grows exponentially with the exposure of more and more evidence.

Yeah, ok - ever get those signatures for that report to Congress?

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But no amount of peer pressure will make me fold to you.

If you give me credible evidence to say I am wrong, then we have a discussion.

We've been doing that for years - you keep ignoring it in favor of magical nanothermite delivered by the Easter Bunny.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[kelpdiver 2]

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Meanwhile our movement for truth andd justice grows exponentially with the exposure of more and more evidence.

if it were exponential growth, you wouldn't be going from a whopping thousand scientists to 1100 to 1200, you'd be going to 10k and then 100k. You're treading water at best, since once signed, no one leaves the count.

and what new evidence are you speaking off? Youtube video reposts don't qualify as new.

[skipbelt 0]

bill gates economic insight!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882404575520241519315372.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_opinion

[kallend 2,148]

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bill gates economic insight!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882404575520241519315372.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_opinion

It's a pity that Laffer's ideas are so (deservedly) discredited. Otherwise one might just believe a word of what he writes.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[mnealtx 0]

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bill gates economic insight!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882404575520241519315372.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_opinion

It's a pity that Laffer's ideas are so (deservedly) discredited. Otherwise one might just believe a word of what he writes.

Like the businesses that aren't doing any investing or hiring because they don't know what the next year will bring in regards to taxes?

I guess they didn't get the memo that government spending was going to make it all better.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[skipbelt 0]

they didn't get the memo , but it's being made up in their talking points

[winsor 236]

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>Is the world economy gonna fall on its ass again soon?

Yep. There will be another recovery cycle, as people slowly gain confidence in the economy and start investing again. Then there will be another boom in technology or housing or biotech or whatever. People will overextend themselves, start overvaluing stuff to ridiculous levels. Then it will collapse again.

In other words, it will keep doing the same thing it's been doing for a few centuries now.

For a somewhat earlier inflationary futures bubble and collapse, google Tulip Mania. For much more depth on this, the book "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" provides a great overview.

This time it really is different.

The US of A has been saying "charge it" on the international market for the last 40-plus years.

We had peak oil here around 1976, and are now at about 4.7 million BPD - though we use about 20 million BPD.

We have become a "service economy," wherein the only way to keep from being sued out of existence is not to make anything in particular. A $30,000 airplane (inflation adjusted) lists for $270,000 after you add in all the liability insurance - from any company who is still willing to make one.

Thus, whenever the ball drops and the dollar reverts to its inherent net value (zero, since most of them are electronic; the Reichsmark at least had the value of paper that could be used for tinder), we will have a few interesting side effects.

To get a picture of what is in store for us, draw a dotted line around the US and match imports with exports on a value basis.

Food will become dear. The fuel necessary to keep tractors, combines, trucks and what have you will become rare and pricey. Also, the fertilizer and insecticides that result in out bountiful harvest are largely petroleum-derived.

Getting clothing will become problematic. What percentage of underwear, shoes and what not is still manufactured here? With what resources will we resurrect the clothing manufacturing industry?

Fueling up the Hummer to get to work will be a bit of an issue. Going from 20 million to 4.7 million barrels a day does not mean there will be around a quarter as many cars on the road - there will be close to none. The 4.7 million BPD we produce is easily accounted for by uses that have much higher priority than privately owned vehicles.

The recipe put forth by John Maynard Keynes for financial recovery is analogous to spin recovery in an aircraft. In the early days of flight spins were regarded as unrecoverable, and thus fatal. The story has it that a French pilot, after getting in a spin, decided he would go out in style and pointed the nose down, thus recovering.

What we are doing with the economy is akin to trying to get out of a spin by pointing the nose earthward and firewalling it - at pattern altitude.

So, in a sense, the only thing different this time will be scale. Germany in the '20s, Yugoslavia in the '90s, Zimbabwe now, and the collapse of the Zloty and the Forint will all be upstaged by the "correction" in the US economy.

The "interesting times" of the old Chinese curse are pretty much upon us.


BSBD,

Winsor

[skipbelt 0]

if we could only get the libs to pay their taxes ! but as we all know libs don't mind raising taxes , they don't pay them !

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/wife-of-rep-john-f-tierney-d-mass-to-plead-guilty-in-tax-evasion-scheme-104388448.html


and

http://www.nlpc.org/stories/2010/10/04/maine-gop-files-complaint-against-rep-pingree-alleged-fec-violations

[billvon 3,116]

>This time it really is different.

I don't think that this recovery will be any different. Our debt will indeed eventually drive us under, and as you mention, the increasing scarcity (and therefore increasing cost) of oil will have a huge impact. But for this round, the recovery will be akin to the last half dozen. We will see unemployment drop, housing prices rebound and average incomes rise. (Indeed, we are already seeing early indications of this.)

In the longer term, I agree that we will start to slide into a Rome-like decline. Our factories will shut down as overseas goods continue to become cheaper, and as more and more Americans refuse to work "those jobs." Eventually some unusually foolish US president will start to lobby other countries to forgive our debt (because of "all the good we've done the world" or some such nonsense) and that will be the end of our debt-based economy,

How does one combat this?

1) Buy local stuff. Not just "made in US" stuff, but stuff from farms near you. It supports local economies, uses far less fuel and engenders reliance on (and stewardship of) local resources.

2) Tort reform. Make it costly to file nuisance lawsuits.

3) Match taxes to expenses. No problem fighting an expensive war or starting a huge space effort - just guarantee that that war will increase people's taxes by $1000 in a few months. Suddenly people will become a lot less likely to wave bloody shirts.

4) Allow foreign workers to work at US factories with minimal fuss, and without minimum wage limits. US factories will start reopening when cheap labor once again becomes available.

[skipbelt 0]

i like this selective paying of taxes idea, you figure your taxes, then you check boxes of where you want your taxes spent. any mismanagement of your selections should be punishable by the same sentences that would be imposed on us if we were to not pay our taxes !

i write this while listening to
just the two of us remake -will smith-

[billvon 3,116]

>i like this selective paying of taxes idea, you figure your taxes, then
>you check boxes of where you want your taxes spent.

You can do that right now. That's called "charity." Taxes are non-optional monies used to support the government.

If there is a cause out there that does not need full public support, then the best option is to not have the government fund it, rather than make it semi-optional. OTOH, if you want to add a "check here to contribute $10 to the cause of your choice" on the 1040, go for it.