By The Numbers (A case for the Summer of Recovery)

[rushmc 23]

The US adds 165 billion to the deficit in one month
Jobless claims highest since Feb
Teen unemployment worst since the 1940's
HC costs increases are greater than a year ago
Home forecloses up 6% from a year ago
DOW down 265 yesterday on all this news (I know it bounces wildly)

Yep, I feel it
We are in the summer of recovery

And the "recovery" will remain the same unless gov spending is significantly reduced and tax incentives for business are introduced
(Which is code for tax cuts)

Many of you post to corp welfare. There is no such thing. Corps to not pay taxes in the end, its customers do as those cost are simply passed on as a cost of product or services

WW 2 brought us out of the last depression not the govs policies. The gov's policies prolonged it as many economists have stated. Obamanomics are doing the same today. Unless things change drastically in Washington, this summer of recovery will continue.

Let’s hope this is not the case

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[SivaGanesha 2]

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WW 2 brought us out of the last depression not the govs policies. The gov's policies prolonged it as many economists have stated. Obamanomics are doing the same today. Unless things change drastically in Washington, this summer of recovery will continue.

It's a generational thing IMHO. The economy tends to stagnate when there is an aging generation that is getting conservative with its money and is just sitting on its wealth. Eventually a new younger generation has the energy to push the older folks out of the way, economically speaking, and then the economy starts moving again.

The economy has been pretty stagnant since 2000--this began late in the Clinton years but it is caused by demographics, not the specific policies of Clinton, Bush, or Obama.

Right now there is a large group of people--mostly boomers and some older Gen X'ers--who made a lot of money in the 80's and 90's but are getting older and less willing to spend at this point. Until a younger generation gains a critical mass of power, though, things are likely to remain stagnant.

"It's hard to have fun at 4-way unless your whole team gets down to the ground safely to do it again!"--Northern California Skydiving League re USPA Safety Day, March 8, 2014

[hwt 0]

The stimulus bill gave the Unions a raise in pay when they doled out the money that the government borrowed from China and left the states on the hook to pay these higher salaries starting a year later.Thats why in the latest stimulus bill they cut food stamps 10 billion dollars to help pay the states more money to rehire the Union workers that were laid off because the states could not afford them.now the Unions have enough money to pay the Democrats back by contributing to their election campaigns.

[rushmc 23]

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WW 2 brought us out of the last depression not the govs policies. The gov's policies prolonged it as many economists have stated. Obamanomics are doing the same today. Unless things change drastically in Washington, this summer of recovery will continue.

It's a generational thing IMHO. The economy tends to stagnate when there is an aging generation that is getting conservative with its money and is just sitting on its wealth. Eventually a new younger generation has the energy to push the older folks out of the way, economically speaking, and then the economy starts moving again.

The economy has been pretty stagnant since 2000--this began late in the Clinton years but it is caused by demographics, not the specific policies of Clinton, Bush, or Obama.

Right now there is a large group of people--mostly boomers and some older Gen X'ers--who made a lot of money in the 80's and 90's but are getting older and less willing to spend at this point. Until a younger generation gains a critical mass of power, though, things are likely to remain stagnant.

Maybe but, I dont think it is that simple
Businesses today do not have a clue where the gov is going with policy right now. Some of the things being discussed and implemented can have a big impact on the bottom line. HC cost are still some what of an unknown save to say most can be confident that the cost is going to go up faster had we not gotten a HC bill passed (under the table). Can n trade, although looking dead for this year can have larege negative consequences should it get passed in a Dem hoped for form. Taxes, nuff said there.

All these together along with huge gov spending threatening the solvency of the dollars have business owner very nervous. So they will not invest or hire (the two are tightly related)

Change these things and the economy will turn around much quicker

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[SivaGanesha 2]

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Maybe but, I dont think it is that simple
Businesses today do not have a clue where the gov is going with policy right now.

This is no doubt true but my point is that when a new generation is ready to take charge, the new generation doesn't wait for businesses to figure out what the gov't is going to do. Instead the new generation TELLS both business and gov't what is going to happen.

If that isn't happening right now, it's because a younger generation isn't quite ready to take charge but the older generation isn't going to take big risks anymore. So you get a phase of stagnation.

"It's hard to have fun at 4-way unless your whole team gets down to the ground safely to do it again!"--Northern California Skydiving League re USPA Safety Day, March 8, 2014

[billvon 3,120]

Republicans are really going to be crying in their beers when the economy recovers (as it always does.) The whining that will occur when people go back to work will be deafening.

Sort of an odd electoral stance, as well. "We're really pissed off that people are back to work! We want to prove that you're really not that well off; check out all these stats that show you how miserable you really are. Now vote for us."

[kelpdiver 2]

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If that isn't happening right now, it's because a younger generation isn't quite ready to take charge but the older generation isn't going to take big risks anymore. So you get a phase of stagnation.

These aren't cohesive groups; they're tens of millions of individuals. What you're talking about is simple demographics, nothing more. The Boomers are a bulge in the age distribution.

[SivaGanesha 2]

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All these together along with huge gov spending threatening the solvency of the dollars have business owner very nervous. So they will not invest or hire (the two are tightly related)

In my experience the greatest rewards are for those who act anyways despite being very nervous. There's always going to be uncertainty in the world of entrepreneurship. If one thing becomes clearer (eg where HC is going), then the market will quickly adjust to reflect that clarity, but the best opportunities will then be found somewhere else where there is still great uncertainty (and, hence, great opportunity and great risk).

The beauty of the capitalist system is that, if there is uncertainty about which way things are going, but you can make an educated guess and are willing to bet on it, there is always a way to make money if your hunch is correct.

If entrepreneurs won't take such risks, to me that is a sign of an aging entrepreneurial population, not any failing of the government.

"It's hard to have fun at 4-way unless your whole team gets down to the ground safely to do it again!"--Northern California Skydiving League re USPA Safety Day, March 8, 2014

[SivaGanesha 2]

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These aren't cohesive groups; they're tens of millions of individuals. What you're talking about is simple demographics, nothing more. The Boomers are a bulge in the age distribution.

There will always be opportunities for individuals. At the macroeconomic level it is indeed a matter of demographics--and so I tend to take Republicans blaming it on Democrats or Democrats blaming it on Republicans with a grain of salt.

Right now the boomers are aging but it's still quite awhile before they are really old--so I think things will remain as they are for awhile. This isn't the Great Depression, but it's not the boom years of the 80's and 90's either. We won't see a return to boom years until a new generation takes economic control--and that's still some time away. But there will always be opportunities for individuals.

"It's hard to have fun at 4-way unless your whole team gets down to the ground safely to do it again!"--Northern California Skydiving League re USPA Safety Day, March 8, 2014

[rushmc 23]

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Republicans are really going to be crying in their beers when the economy recovers (as it always does.) The whining that will occur when people go back to work will be deafening.

Sort of an odd electoral stance, as well. "We're really pissed off that people are back to work! We want to prove that you're really not that well off; check out all these stats that show you how miserable you really are. Now vote for us."

Hi Bill
nice if not very odd tangent

Have a nice day

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 23]

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All these together along with huge gov spending threatening the solvency of the dollars have business owner very nervous. So they will not invest or hire (the two are tightly related)

In my experience the greatest rewards are for those who act anyways despite being very nervous. There's always going to be uncertainty in the world of entrepreneurship. If one thing becomes clearer (eg where HC is going), then the market will quickly adjust to reflect that clarity, but the best opportunities will then be found somewhere else where there is still great uncertainty (and, hence, great opportunity and great risk).

The beauty of the capitalist system is that, if there is uncertainty about which way things are going, but you can make an educated guess and are willing to bet on it, there is always a way to make money if your hunch is correct.

If entrepreneurs won't take such risks, to me that is a sign of an aging entrepreneurial population, not any failing of the government.

Agree
There are some I see taking chance now. On both sides of some of the topics I listed above
There will be however, winners, who will be remembered and looser's who will not.

Sad if some one looses on a bet considering a gov stance or program

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rhaig 0]

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In my experience the greatest rewards are for those who act anyways despite being very nervous.

so you mean that with greater risk comes greater reward? that's an earthshattering concept!! amazing!!

--
Rob

[rushmc 23]

And the recovery continues

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Weekly Jobless Claims Post Surprise Jump, Hit 500,000

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38768328

Oh, and ya billvon, I am really fucking happy about it

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 23]

More good news that I am supposedly happy about

What we are seeing are the predicted outcomes of this admins policies however....

Sad, very sad

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy faces even more difficult times ahead with chronic high unemployment rates and slow manufacturing growth hurting the recovery, Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf said on Thursday.

The U.S. unemployment rate will not fall to around 5.0 percent until 2014, Elmendorf wrote in his blog about CBO's new economic and budget outlook.

Without significant changes in U.S. tax and spending laws, the U.S. government will struggle to dig its way out of a fiscal deficit hole, the CBO said, and this may influence the outcome of the November 2 midterm congressional elections.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/2010-budget-deficit-at-1342-rb-1122983085.html?x=0&.v=1

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[airdvr 210]

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this may influence the outcome of the November 2 midterm congressional elections

Does a wooden horse have a hickory dick?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[rushmc 23]

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this may influence the outcome of the November 2 midterm congressional elections

Does a wooden horse have a hickory dick?

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln