Yep, stimulus recovery isn't working

[Lucky... 0]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100402/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

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Private employers added 123,000 jobs, the most since May 2007.

The economy began recovering in the middle of last year, but is only now showing modest job gains.

Oh, right after the stimulus introduction.

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The jobs report pushed interest rates in the bond market to their highest level since before the worst days of the credit crisis in 2008.

Maybe the dollar will rebound too.

It will be fun to read to the critiques of this article/data, just remember, the unemp rate grew 3.4% from Feb 08 to Feb 09, which is unprecedented since the Great Depression. To turn the corner this quickly is amazing.

[matthewcline 0]

How do those numbers compare to the over all job loss rate from the same time period?

We in TN just lost another 663 jobs to go with the 1500+ lost earlier in March. 2100+ jobs lost in 30 ish days.

But we juts got a $500 Mil education grant, so maybe we can put the teachers back to work.

Matt

An Instructors first concern is student safety.
So, start being safe, first!!!

[airdvr 210]

I always chuckle a bit...right before I throw up in my mouth a little, when people give this administration glowing reviews on it's handling of the economy they inherited. I would certainly fucking hope that the injection of hundereds of billions of dollars of our tax money, billed to the never ending line of credit we have, might have some positive affect.

123,000 jobs...so what are we talking? Anybody do the math on how much we spent per job?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[kallend 2,150]

DOW is up some 50% since then, too.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Lucky... 0]

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How do those numbers compare to the over all job loss rate from the same time period?

We in TN just lost another 663 jobs to go with the 1500+ lost earlier in March. 2100+ jobs lost in 30 ish days.

But we juts got a $500 Mil education grant, so maybe we can put the teachers back to work.

Matt

I think we just went thru this, fed data is basically an average, it doesn't, in this federal format, refer to state-by-state performance. Now, I don't see any data from you, nor do I see any data covering job gains. It is typical evem in teh best of economies to lose jobs, but job gains cover those losses and perhaps more, again in the best of economies.

My point is that to inherit a 3.4% jump in unemployment while the previous turd just sat there dumbfounded, is unprecedented. Hell, even FDR inherited a horrible but stable mess, Obama's was still exponentially growing. Again, the unemp monster that grew 3.4% the year before Obama peaked and rounded the ark in October 09, eight to nine months after Obama took office, that is quality perfomance and a working stimulus. This is my point. Now humble job growth to be followed by steady and improving job growth; I wouldn't buy champagne for November as of yet. In fact, keep that bubbly bottled for Nov 2012 too. These are the things that remind us that we have a working government. Reviewing GWB reminds us that we had a dissasterous government. Altho the pig is fashionable, reviewing Reagan's tenure also reminds of horrible times too.

[Lucky... 0]

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I always chuckle a bit...right before I throw up in my mouth a little,...

Are you a bird?

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...when people give this administration glowing reviews on it's handling of the economy they inherited.

Well, they inherited a stock market that was about 1/2 of its peak just a short time earlier, a GDP that was 4 of 5 Q's negative incl -6.4% the Q Obama inherited, and unemp that grew a shocking 3.4% the year prior to Obama's inauguration. Yea, why give Obama and his admin any credit?

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I would certainly fucking hope that the injection of hundereds of billions of dollars of our tax money, billed to the never ending line of credit we have, might have some positive affect.

A) The first 700B was signed for by your hero, the 2nd 787B by my hero; quit giving all the blame for the 1.5T to Obama - it just isn't factually correct.

B) The diff here is that your hero gave the 700B rubber check to the most elite of our society, my hero gave the 787B to the people. This is where the vomiting in teh mouth begins; Republicans continue to support the mega-rich - Dems the average guy.

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123,000 jobs...so what are we talking? Anybody do the math on how much we spent per job?

It's only the start, so to average that at this early stage is meaningless. Also, we would have to add the additional jobs lost if there were no stimulus to find a real number/cost-per job. But it is just like a Republican to put a value on human suffering vs 'let's just fix the problem.' Do you still sit there and wonder why Republicans are so unpopular right now?

[airdvr 210]

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A) The first 700B was signed for by your hero, the 2nd 787B by my hero; quit giving all the blame for the 1.5T to Obama - it just isn't factually correct

I think you need to do some fact checking. Your boy has actually distributed more TARP funds than GWB, and I dislike TARP as much as I dislike the stimulus and the HC bill.

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B) The diff here is that your hero gave the 700B rubber check to the most elite of our society, my hero gave the 787B to the people. This is where the vomiting in teh mouth begins; Republicans continue to support the mega-rich - Dems the average guy.

Not my hero..and you need to take a look at where the stimulus dollars have been spent so far. Hell, you sound like you're getting a tingle in your leg Lucky.

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Do you still sit there and wonder why Republicans are so unpopular right now?

When will you begin to understand that the business of running a government is not a poularity contest?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[kallend 2,150]

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A) The first 700B was signed for by your hero, the 2nd 787B by my hero; quit giving all the blame for the 1.5T to Obama - it just isn't factually correct

I think you need to do some fact checking. Your boy has actually distributed more TARP funds than GWB, and I dislike TARP as much as I dislike the stimulus and the HC bill.

BO has had a lot more time to spend TARP funds than GWB had. Do you have a point?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[futuredivot 0]

So you can get a job that has benefits now and quit leeching society? Fantastic news-Glad to hear it. Congrats

You are only as strong as the prey you devour

[airdvr 210]

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A) The first 700B was signed for by your hero, the 2nd 787B by my hero; quit giving all the blame for the 1.5T to Obama - it just isn't factually correct

I think you need to do some fact checking. Your boy has actually distributed more TARP funds than GWB, and I dislike TARP as much as I dislike the stimulus and the HC bill.

BO has had a lot more time to spend TARP funds than GWB had. Do you have a point?

My point goes towards my reference to 'billions of dollars' that have been spent. On top of the stimulus we have TARP money. Are you impressed that the economy is rebounding?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[kelpdiver 2]

More significant quotes from the article, starting with the lead paragraph.

WASHINGTON – The nation's economy posted its largest job gain in three years in March, while the unemployment rate remained at 9.7 percent for the third straight month.

...

Normally, growth in the 3 percent range would be considered respectable. But the nation is emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s. Growth needs to be in the 5 percent range or higher to quickly drive down the unemployment rate. Both the Federal Reserve and Obama administration expect joblessness will remain above 9 percent through the end of this year.

-----
indeed, keep the bubbly on ice.

[Rookie120 0]

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To turn the corner this quickly is amazing.

Yup it sure is. Especially with bankruptcy filings going through the roof!

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By Robin Cassella
Personal bankruptcy filings in March were the highest since federal bankruptcy laws were reorganized in 2005, according to a study released by Automated Access to Court Electronic Records (AACER: undefined, undefined, undefined%),

The 158,141 bankruptcies filed in March was a 20% increase from last March, and a 35% increase from February.


March’s filings were the highest since Oct. 2009, which had been the highest since reforms to the U.S. Bankruptcy Code were enacted in 2005.


About three-quarters of the petitions were filed under Chapter 7, which allows consumers to get a new start on their finances. Others were filed under Chapter 13, which allows consumers to discharge some debts. A total of 1,323 were filed under Chapter 11, which businesses usually use.


Bankruptcy filings since 2005 for individuals rose 32% to 1.41 million, and for businesses rose 40% to nearly 61,000.


“When you experience job losses, a tightening of and increase in the credit costs and rising interest rates on credit cards, people start feeling a squeeze," said Karen Gross, president of Southern Vermont College in Bennington and director of the Coalition for Debtor Education, in an article for Reuters. "You start seeing bankruptcy rates increase and that's exactly what we're seeing now."


However, the busiest three-month period for filings remains the fourth quarter of 2005 when 667,000 petitions were filed.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[Lucky... 0]

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I think you need to do some fact checking. Your boy has actually distributed more TARP funds than GWB,

http://bailout.propublica.org/main/timeline/index

Not by much and if you count repayments, Obama has distributed less. As Kalledn was saying, therate of distribution is far less under Obama, but that is all semantics, either we had to bail them out, socialize the entire banking system or enjoy GD part II.

Repayments under Obama:

March
69 bailouts: $97,848,541,000 5 refunds: $353,000,000

April
50 bailouts: $35,739,137,642 6 refunds: $683,540,000 2 revenue payments: $995,000 (list)

May
57 bailouts: $46,762,708,198 9 refunds: $735,320,000 565 revenue payments: $5,918,032,432 (list)

June
45 bailouts: $27,704,074,395 12 refunds: $68,352,729,000 27 revenue payments: $2,310,724,665 (list)

July
31 bailouts: $41,280,319,285 5 refunds: $2,189,254,840 16 revenue payments: $2,562,839,497 (list)

August
19 bailouts: $15,554,377,000 3 refunds: $140,000,000 598 revenue payments: $3,027,307,235 (list)

September
34 bailouts: $4,109,552,653 7 refunds: $403,938,000 17 revenue payments: $2,595,463,437 (list)

October
23 bailouts: $23,517,137,332 3 refunds: $88,400,000 12 revenue payments: $609,053,915 (list)

November
19 bailouts: $21,737,986,666 10 refunds: $368,618,000 596 revenue payments: $1,888,403,607 (list)

December
66 bailouts: $37,370,432,333 15 refunds: $91,851,152,000 42 revenue payments: $4,456,280,090 (list)

January
8 bailouts: $40,410,000 6 refunds: $448,506,421 22 revenue payments: $126,551,118 (list)

February
3 bailouts: $17,580,200,000 6 refunds: $7,997,020,718 583 revenue payments: $757,437,133 (list)

March
4 bailouts: $90,180,000 6 refunds: $6,123,076,735 5 revenue payments: $1,588,542,997 (list)


$186,348,000,000 or, > 186 billion repayed under Obama, as he wouldn't allow the banks to continue massive bonuses and claimed our stake as shareholders, so the institutiuons repayed so they could continue their corrupt ways of multi-million dollar bonuses. OBAMA FORCED REPAYMENT.

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...and I dislike TARP as much as I dislike the stimulus and the HC bill.

That's because you aren't real aware of the Great Depression and you think we can jsut do nothning and let the dissaster fix itself. I hope you don't follow that logic with skydiving or you would just ignore a major, high-speed mal and let it fix itself.

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Not my hero..and you need to take a look at where the stimulus dollars have been spent so far. Hell, you sound like you're getting a tingle in your leg Lucky.

Oh no, you agree with GWB on most issues. I didn't like C4C, however I do like most stimuls programs. The data is irrefutable, unless you characterize the mess your hero left us as being very minor in scope.

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When will you begin to understand that the business of running a government is not a poularity contest?

That's funny, fascist pig Ronnie was mor epopular than most and he ran the country into the ground. GWB was so popular that he won after running teh country into the ground during his 1st term, of course he won the first time, allegedly, based on fewer poular votes. So who gives a fuck about popularity, if you're unwilling to understand teh dynamics behind the GD and think we can let teh banks fail and it will all fix itself then you are clearly unqualified to discuss the recent Great Republican Recession.

Obama is popular early on basd upon the fact that he is not GWB, he is popular now in the fact that he has flipped this major mess around.

[Lucky... 0]

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So you can get a job that has benefits now and quit leeching society? Fantastic news-Glad to hear it. Congrats

I haven't used a social program such as SS, Medicare, disability, etc....ever.

The last so-called social program I've used is unemp comp probably 8 years ago. Not sure where you're dreaming up your fantasy, just keep em there.

[Lucky... 0]

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A) The first 700B was signed for by your hero, the 2nd 787B by my hero; quit giving all the blame for the 1.5T to Obama - it just isn't factually correct

I think you need to do some fact checking. Your boy has actually distributed more TARP funds than GWB, and I dislike TARP as much as I dislike the stimulus and the HC bill.

BO has had a lot more time to spend TARP funds than GWB had. Do you have a point?

My point goes towards my reference to 'billions of dollars' that have been spent. On top of the stimulus we have TARP money. Are you impressed that the economy is rebounding?

Nope, we bought our way out of this one on credit, the other options were to enjoy decade(s) of suffering or do as Hoover did and raise income taxes 260%.

- Deficit spending

- Tax-n-spend

- Do nothing and dream it will fix itself

Do you have other ideas?

I am im pressed we have a leader and a congress that does something rather tha, 'TAX CUTS, MY FRIENDS."

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

More significant quotes from the article, starting with the lead paragraph.

WASHINGTON – The nation's economy posted its largest job gain in three years in March, while the unemployment rate remained at 9.7 percent for the third straight month.

...

Normally, growth in the 3 percent range would be considered respectable. But the nation is emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s. Growth needs to be in the 5 percent range or higher to quickly drive down the unemployment rate. Both the Federal Reserve and Obama administration expect joblessness will remain above 9 percent through the end of this year.

-----
indeed, keep the bubbly on ice.

Growth needs to be - want in one hand / shit in the other.

GDP growth is >5%, jobs growth ALWAYS LAGS over all other indicators; show me a time where that isn't true.

>>>>>>>> Both the Federal Reserve and Obama administration expect joblessness will remain above 9 percent through the end of this year.

I haven't read that, but so what if it's true? Show me a time where unemp has skyrocketed 3.4% in a year. You act as if this is a garden variety recession. This is way worse than the fascist pig allowing the fed to contract the money supply and throwing us from 8ish into 10.8% unemp. Here we have the banks failing and the home mortage industry failing too. You demand a 15 minute fix or you say BO is no good; just ridiculous. YOUR PARTY DID THIS; MINE IS FIXING IT. YOUR PARTY WATCHED THIS MESS AND REFUSED TO RESPOND (like Katrina, etc); MY PARTY IMMEDIATLEY RESPONDED.

All the revisionism in the world won't change the above facts

[kallend 2,150]

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Quote

Quote

Quote

Quote

A) The first 700B was signed for by your hero, the 2nd 787B by my hero; quit giving all the blame for the 1.5T to Obama - it just isn't factually correct

I think you need to do some fact checking. Your boy has actually distributed more TARP funds than GWB, and I dislike TARP as much as I dislike the stimulus and the HC bill.

BO has had a lot more time to spend TARP funds than GWB had. Do you have a point?

My point goes towards my reference to 'billions of dollars' that have been spent. On top of the stimulus we have TARP money. Are you impressed that the economy is rebounding?

Nope, we bought our way out of this one on credit, the other options were to enjoy decade(s) of suffering or do as Hoover did and raise income taxes 260%.

Well, with the stock market up 50% since this time last year there should be enough capital gains to cover the cost of the stimulus.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Lucky... 0]

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Yup it sure is. Especially with bankruptcy filings going through the roof!

Gee, what could have changed? Well, in late 2005 we were in the middle of the stolen money house ponzi scheme that GWB presided over while doing nothing. IOW's it was the false appreciation surge where lots of money was out there.

Then it popped and Obama inmherited the mess that your guy sat there, dumbfounded, not knowing what to do, so he just signed for 700B for the richest of the rich. Now you say it's Obama's fault for the BK filings that are generally induced by the GWB housing meltdown. Brilliant. That's like me lending you my 200k mile car, having it break down and me asking what you did to fuck it up; keep the abstraction going, it's all you have.

[airdvr 210]

Will you be responding to questions that I pose of John now?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[airdvr 210]

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Well, with the stock market up 50% since this time last year there should be enough capital gains to cover the cost of the stimulus.

Nice redirect there perfessor. Question still stands tho...Just interested in knowing if you are as impressed as Lucky is with the economic recovery to date.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[kelpdiver 2]

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GDP growth is >5%, jobs growth ALWAYS LAGS over all other indicators; show me a time where that isn't true.

GDP growth *was* > 5%, but is not now, nor expected to be. That's why this article, the one that you cited, talked about the 3% level.

It's funny, I imagine you started reading this thing, saw 'private jobs created' and your brain turned off and all you could think was: "I need to get to SC and show those guys!" It's hardly new - you're long demonstrated an inability to read the big picture.

You write here that the stimulus is working and we're turning the corner. Let's ignore the policy debate and just focus on the claim - are we turning the corner?

yes, it's a fact that employment is a trailing indicator. But the stock market low was early March of 2009, over a year ago. And per your article citation, unemployment is going to stay high through the end of the year. Quite the trailer.

The construction industry jobs will return when there are enough people with money to pay for homes again. But other jobs may not. And it's a reality that we can't spend a trillion in red ink per year indefinitely. If it takes that much debt to keep a modest growth going, we don't have very long.

But I hope to see 2010 mirror 1982 and the successive recovery. Unfortunately, you don't consider that a success, so either you won't like it happening here, or you'll ignore the parallels because of the (D).

[kelpdiver 2]

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Well, with the stock market up 50% since this time last year there should be enough capital gains to cover the cost of the stimulus.

Shockingly bad analysis for a man with a college degree.

Capital gains are only realized when someone closes their position. For the long term holders, that 50% gain didn't even get them back to where they started in 2007 as the slide began. The wiser (and not unemployed) started buying last year, but have not sold.

And then you have the market timers and the emotional investors (read: fools). Many of them sold at the low, realizing large capital losses, which they deducted on their taxes. If they exceeded the gains by more than 3k (likely), then it's a carryover for future years, so they and many mutual funds won't be declaring a capital gain for a few years.

And since market timers often tend to do the worst (buy into the bubble, sell into the crash) behavior, they didn't start buying in 2009 until summer after most of the recovery occurred. So they only gain 20% rather than 50+.

[rushmc 23]

Here is a CYA article that pretty much parallels your point

Without lower unemployment there will be a limited recovery at best. Inflation due to the spending will kill any weak recovery

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36150959/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

I like the stock comment by the kallend too
Many economist state that this is a false rise due to gov money (aka stimulus). And whether that money can remain or not is a factor that will only delay a collapse unless a real recovery is realized.

The kool aid and smoke are strong with(in) this one

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[Gawain 0]

California just saw its last auto plant shut down yesterday. 4700 jobs gone like that. Peripheral business effects not yet known. Glad you're so happy about things ol'Lucky...keep carrying the message while doing a write up for wiki or commenting on an onion story...share the word with your VA reps too...

30% of those jobs were temporary government census related.

Indicators I'm reading say several of these may be only private sector temporary work, but I hope they're wrong. I also hope we see continued job growth.

I can tell you, from the ground here in California, the contracting/construction sector is decimated. Guys are calling, begging for work. Half of my partner's other business is on unemployment until some contracts get under way later this summer. Glad you're so happy about it.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[matthewcline 0]

Quote

Quote

More significant quotes from the article, starting with the lead paragraph.

WASHINGTON – The nation's economy posted its largest job gain in three years in March, while the unemployment rate remained at 9.7 percent for the third straight month.

...

Normally, growth in the 3 percent range would be considered respectable. But the nation is emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s. Growth needs to be in the 5 percent range or higher to quickly drive down the unemployment rate. Both the Federal Reserve and Obama administration expect joblessness will remain above 9 percent through the end of this year.

-----
indeed, keep the bubbly on ice.

Growth needs to be - want in one hand / shit in the other.

GDP growth is >5%, jobs growth ALWAYS LAGS over all other indicators; show me a time where that isn't true.

>>>>>>>> Both the Federal Reserve and Obama administration expect joblessness will remain above 9 percent through the end of this year.

I haven't read that, but so what if it's true? Show me a time where unemp has skyrocketed 3.4% in a year. You act as if this is a garden variety recession. This is way worse than the fascist pig allowing the fed to contract the money supply and throwing us from 8ish into 10.8% unemp. Here we have the banks failing and the home mortage industry failing too. You demand a 15 minute fix or you say BO is no good; just ridiculous. YOUR PARTY DID THIS; MINE IS FIXING IT. YOUR PARTY WATCHED THIS MESS AND REFUSED TO RESPOND (like Katrina, etc); MY PARTY IMMEDIATLEY RESPONDED.

All the revisionism in the world won't change the above facts

The Article you linked in your first post had the 9% number.

It also stated 1/3 of the "New Jobs" came from the Census, which will top out near 700,000 and when the Census is over, 700.000 Census workers will join the unemployed.

Matt

An Instructors first concern is student safety.
So, start being safe, first!!!