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rushmc

Arctic Ice Levels

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Too bad for your theory that it did NOT, and is now more than 2SD below the "normal".

nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png



Odd - the current (May 4) ice analysis page doesn't show that...I guess it helps when you can snag a day after the melt season has started to try to make a false premise, though.

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May 4 is not May 26. The ice is now BELOW the 2007 extent for the SAME DATE.
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Despite the late ice growth, Arctic air temperatures remained persistently warmer than average throughout the winter and early spring season. April temperatures were about 3 to 4 degrees Celsius (5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit) above average across much of the Arctic Ocean, and up to 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal in northern Canada.



When the temperature is -40 C, the air holds hardly any moisture - it gets precipitated out. Warming that air to -35C will have a pretty appreciable increase in the moisture the air can hold, which will not only increase the amount of snowfall but still be friggin cold enough to cause accretion of sea ice.

Warmer temperatures meaning more ice makes sense.


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One more thing: I believe I mentioned it earlier in this thread, but arctic sea ice [I]extent is always dominated by winds. Other factors are involved, but not to the extent of wind. A predominant season of calm winds will increase Arctic sea ice extent. Winds will decrease it. This is because Arctic ice floats. Easterly winds will push the western ice east - crumpling and piling it - while at the same time pushing eastern ice to warmer water and dispersing it.


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Arctic Ice Hits Rock Bottom

June 7, 2010

Less ice covers the Arctic today than at any time in recent geologic history. That’s the conclusion of an international group of researchers, who have compiled the first comprehensive history of Arctic ice.

For decades, scientists have strived to collect sediment cores from the difficult-to-access Arctic Ocean floor, to discover what the Arctic was like in the past. Their most recent goal: to bring a long-term perspective to the ice loss we see today.

Now, in an upcoming issue of Quarternary Science Reviews, a team led by Ohio State Univ. has re-examined the data from past and ongoing studies -- nearly 300 in all -- and combined them to form a big-picture view of the pole’s climate history stretching back millions of years.

“The ice loss that we see today -- the ice loss that started in the early 20th Century and sped up during the last 30 years -- appears to be unmatched over at least the last few thousand years,” says Leonid Polyak, a research scientist at Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State Univ. Polyak is lead author of the paper and a preceding report that he and his coauthors prepared for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

http://www.laboratoryequipment.com/news-Arctic-ice-at-rock-bottom-060710.aspx

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He left out this part

"While knowing the loss of surface area of the ice is important, Polyak says that this work can’t yet reveal an even more important fact: how the total volume of ice -- thickness as well as surface area -- has changed over time.

“Underneath the surface, the ice can be thick or thin. The newest satellite techniques and field observations allow us to see that the volume of ice is shrinking much faster than its area today. The picture is very troubling. We are losing ice very fast,” he says. "

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He left out this part

"While knowing the loss of surface area of the ice is important, Polyak says that this work can’t yet reveal an even more important fact: how the total volume of ice -- thickness as well as surface area -- has changed over time.

“Underneath the surface, the ice can be thick or thin. The newest satellite techniques and field observations allow us to see that the volume of ice is shrinking much faster than its area today. The picture is very troubling. We are losing ice very fast,” he says. "



This is contrary to what GW should be doing. And, in fact, secondary.

CO2 and Methane have the greatest greenhouse effects in cold regions in the wintertime and at night. This is because cold air hold less water vapor and this vapor does not skew and/or moderate the effects.

Warmer air hold more water vapor. More water vapor means more precipitation. Ergo, more accretion of ice. In a place that may average -40 degrees per year, ice aint melting if the temperature ncreases to -35, but a lot more is being added.

So what happens? We hear stats about the lack of sea ice in the summertime - when, of course, the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases would be the least.

The greenhouse gas physics would suggest that MORE actic ice is being accreted in the winters while roughly the same amount ablates in summers.

Why they don't publicize the artic ice extents in December strikes me a pandering to ignorance. Listing lack of summer ice extent because of global warming is evidence of LACK of AGW. A growth trend for winter ice accretion - would be some evidence of AGW.
But - should that happen, it wouldn't be scary. "Ice being accreted in increasing amounts in the Arctic" just doesn't match the doom scenarios.

Even IF that's what science says should happen, science would not be convenient.

(1) Skydiver dies means parachute didn't open.
(2) Decreasing summer ice extent means global warming.

Both (1) and (2) are similar in their practical accuracy.


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Denier countdown commences....


3

2

1



dammit Jeanne - don't leave me hanging. what's the next number???????!!!!!!!

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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You are missing one very important fact, there used to be ice there year round with just a minimal melting around the landmasses to the south of the icepack. Now its approaching a point where its ice free.

Ice pack reflects solar radiation called albedo effect... no pack ice and you get the waters warming due to absorbing solar radiation. That holds true for the landmass as well..... less snow...more solar radiation absorbed.

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[Reply] You are missing one very important fact, there used to be ice there year round with just a minimal melting around the landmasses to the south of the icepack. Now its approaching a point where its ice free.



You are missing the fact that increased ice ablation in the Arctic summers is not something that greenhouse physics - as we understand them - would cause. AGW would have BY FAR the greatest effect in winter in the Arctic or Siberia.

So pointing to the Arctic summer ice extent is pretty much a red herring. Maybe AGW affects the prevailing winds. Maybe it affects the currents and riverflow into the Arctic Circle. Maybe there is some forcing of the North Atlantic Oscillation and ocean mixing that limits the extent of formation?

We don't know. But - winter ice extent is a FAR better exemplar of AGW.

[Reply]Ice pack reflects solar radiation called albedo effect... no pack ice and you get the waters warming due to absorbing solar radiation. That holds true for the landmass as well..... less snow...more solar radiation absorbed.



Of course. But you are hinting that the cause/effect is AGW causing increased summer melting. AGW would increase albedo by accreting more ice by precipitation AND, by virtue or increased moisture content, decereasing sublimation of the ice.

Warmer ocean water would cause an increased melt. Increased ocean salinity would increase the melt. But AGW is limited in the Artic summer - other things have a much larger effect.

I've put this out numerous times. Nobody has ever challenged it. But it seems as though it's being ignored in favor of an inferred causation where, scientifically, correlation is mighty scarce.


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>So the less ice there is locked up in glaciers, the more liquid water
>is available for swimming pools; and that's good for America.

Which is why the liberals hate the idea. They want all that water to be wasted in glaciers and sea ice. Brainless idiots.

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Hmm. Explain, professor, how colder temperatures do not result in decreased water vapor in the air. Here I thought that relative humidity meant "humidity relative to temperature."

Silly me. I should have written, "increasing temperature from -40 to -35 will result in melting of the ice and will decrease the amount of precipitation because hot air holds less moisture than cold air.

I also should have stated that water vapor is not a greenhouse gas. My bad.

When Chris Matthews was arguing that the blizzards of this last winter were evidence of global warming, I should not have defended the reasoning. Instead I should have said, "yeah! It doesn't snow more with a temperature increase! Alarmist nutsos."

Thanks for your cogent critique. Why, you pointed to specific errors instead of a general ad hominem.

Good stuff.


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Sorry I am still trying to wrap my mind around the Jedi Mind trick some people are trying to work........ that for a region that USED to be completely covered in sea ice all year and now its dissappearing and ice free for the summer months is somehow NOT an indication of higher temperatures.


I seem to remember learning that sea ice will melt when the temperature goes above 28 degrees F. When the average temperatures in an area rise above that.... ice melts and the higher the average temps.. the faster its melting. Lose all that white.. and it warms up the water even more....more ice melts.

Move along there is nothing to see here.. the ice is not really melting........

mmmmmmmmmmmkkkkkk I am convinced

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Opening arguments in the Blago trial are tomorrow, there's still time.

nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stdev_timeseries.png

Meanwhile, a pole away:

Measurements from the Grace satellites confirm that Antarctica is losing mass. Isabella Velicogna of JPL and the University of California, Irvine, uses Grace data to weigh the Antarctic ice sheet from space. Her work shows that the ice sheet is not only losing mass, but it is losing mass at an accelerating rate. "The important message is that it is not a linear trend. A linear trend means you have the same mass loss every year. The fact that it’s above linear, this is the important idea, that ice loss is increasing with time," she says. And she points out that it isn’t just the Grace data that show accelerating loss; the radar data do, too. "It isn't just one type of measurement. It's a series of independent measurements that are giving the same results, which makes it more robust." - NASA
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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>So the less ice there is locked up in glaciers, the more liquid water
>is available for swimming pools; and that's good for America.

Which is why the liberals hate the idea. They want all that water to be wasted in glaciers and sea ice. Brainless idiots.



Did you just give yourself a PA?:o
I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

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[Reply]
that for a region that USED to be completely covered in sea ice all year and now its dissappearing and ice free for the summer months is somehow NOT an indication of higher temperatures.



Right. Forget the science - it might not match what you want! Foreclose the possibility that an increase in snow means an increase in ice and a decrease means a decrease. Nope. Just as much as before only it's all melting.

Mind trick? Isn't that what they say about evolution? Jeanne - check out the science. it doesn't explain everything and leaves a lot of questions. But it does provide some answers.

[Reply]I seem to remember learning that sea ice will melt when the temperature goes above 28 degrees F. When the average temperatures in an area rise above that.... ice melts and the higher the average temps.. the faster its melting



Note the care with which I use the term "melt." It could be minus 30 outside and the ice can lose volume. I carefully resist the term "melting" in favor of "ablation." Melting is but one process. Sublimation is also a large factor.

Jeanne - you aren't convinced. That's fine. Neither is a redneck on a Kansas school board convinced of evolution. Hopefully you've got a better understanding of their mindset. Not bad people, just choosing to deny...


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[Reply]

It aint melting - not in a place with a mean temperature of -56 F.

The place averages less than an inch of precipitation per year. The air is so cold and so dry that the ice sublimates.

Hmmm. Thanks for proving my point. Yeah, it's global warmong melting ice at mimus 55 degrees.

It aint melting.


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[Reply]

It aint melting - not in a place with a mean temperature of -56 F.

The place averages less than an inch of precipitation per year. The air is so cold and so dry that the ice sublimates.

Hmmm. Thanks for proving my point. Yeah, it's global warmong melting ice at mimus 55 degrees.

It aint melting.



Did I say it was "melting"?

Are you now trying to claim that sublimation isn't temperature dependent?:D

You should stick to lawyering. The Big Trial's opening arguments TODAY!
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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No. You didn't say melting. You said Antarctica's ice mass is dropping. Which would be interesting to a group of folks who would wonder how this happens when it's minus 56 degrees.

why's it happening, John? Global warming would increase precipitation.

How's global warming causing ice levels there to decrease?

Stick to building bridges in climate controlled structures. If you think that moisture capacity of the air is not dependent on temperature I'd not want to be a pedestrian on your outdoor bridge...


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No. You didn't say melting. You said Antarctica's ice mass is dropping. Which would be interesting to a group of folks who would wonder how this happens when it's minus 56 degrees.

why's it happening, John? Global warming would increase precipitation.

How's global warming causing ice levels there to decrease?

Stick to building bridges in climate controlled structures. If you think that moisture capacity of the air is not dependent on temperature I'd not want to be a pedestrian on your outdoor bridge...



I don't design bridges. Stick to lawyering, you're better at it. While you're about it, re-read the first three posts on this thread.

Did you look up the temperature dependence of sublimation yet? How about the influence of (anthropogenic) ozone depletion on Antarctic ice?

More.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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No I have not. I'm still into a basic understanding of the possible ways that ice can be shrinking in the second driest desert on earth in terms of precipitation and the driest in terms of the moisture content of the air.

I do appreciate that you are pointing to an alternative explanation for shrinking ice volume. "I got this thing and it's fucking golden! Yeah. Global warming."


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No I have not. I'm still into a basic understanding of the possible ways that ice can be shrinking in the second driest desert on earth in terms of precipitation and the driest in terms of the moisture content of the air.

I do appreciate that you are pointing to an alternative explanation for shrinking ice volume. "I got this thing and it's fucking golden! Yeah. Global warming."



One thing that is undeniable even by the deniers is that adding heat to ice at constant pressure eventually makes it turn into water or water vapor.

As for weather forecasting, if we can get it right 24 hours in advance we're doing well.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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