Wait. Did I just agree with Pat Bucanan?

[SpeedRacer 1]

rhys, you need to take off your tinfoil hat and move out of your parents' basement.

Speed Racer
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[rhys 0]

The true total death toll will never be known, when you drop a bomb from an airplane you don't know who or what it is going to hit.

These wars will be ongoing for many years to come, there is no resolution, that is what was intended, as long as the middle east is unstable and you can all burn gas from there without the regon getting too strong. and halliburton makes an absolute killing (pun not intended)

These tolls we are given, how do you suppose the tallies are made? do you think every piece of human flesh has been identified? do you think the families that are collectively killed and maimed by you tax dollars are accounted for every time?

iraq is a clustefuck, yes, afganistan and pakistan is a clusterfuck, vietnam was a clusterfuck, war is a clusterfuck, but it is also the american way!

You are complicit in these murders because you refuse to accept that 9/11 was a false falg operation to keep the US propped up and the middle east weak!

why should they suffer?

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[billvon 3,111]

>Do you think I hate everything about the military?

No, you said you thought the massive profits of the "military-industrial complex" (i.e. basically every business except government and education) would drive us into some sort of sinkhole. Since you are contributing to that process, it is odd that you'd rail against it.

>The world 'is' corrupt, every facet of our lives we, are mis informed and
>lured into beleiving a false truth, simply to make money for those that
>feed the crap to us.

OK. But you seem to be fine supporting that 'false truth.'

[Amazon 7]

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The true total death toll will never be known, when you drop a bomb from an airplane you don't know who or what it is going to hit.

These wars will be ongoing for many years to come, there is no resolution, that is what was intended, as long as the middle east is unstable and you can all burn gas from there without the regon getting too strong. and halliburton makes an absolute killing (pun not intended)

These tolls we are given, how do you suppose the tallies are made? do you think every piece of human flesh has been identified? do you think the families that are collectively killed and maimed by you tax dollars are accounted for every time?

iraq is a clustefuck, yes, afganistan and pakistan is a clusterfuck, vietnam was a clusterfuck, war is a clusterfuck, but it is also the american way!

You are complicit in these murders because you refuse to accept that 9/11 was a false falg operation to keep the US propped up and the middle east weak!

why should they suffer?

Hey could you help us out here... and queue up some music with your posts???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHIFMkmhDY0

Just put this link at the beginning of them so we can have this going while we read your ramblings.. OK????

[billvon 3,111]

Enough with the personal comments. Disagree with him all you like, but keep the argument on his statements.

[rhys 0]

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hys, you need to take off your tinfoil hat and move out of your parents' basement.

I live in a different country, have lived in 6 different countries and have visited over 15 different countries and am about to board an A380 and fly to the middle east for 2 weeks!

Try again, how many cpuntries have you been to and how receptive were they to your being american?

Americans are 'hated' the world around and New Zealanders are loved?

The paranoid tin hatters are the americans (less than 15% have passports) that beleive their country is doing a good thing by killing innocent civilians around the world in these fake wars.

it is about time your education system actually teaches your children about the world.

Europe is a country isn't it?

Antarctica is dark all summer isn't it?

If you guys don't want me to insult your country, don't ask me to! I could unleash if i wanted to but I will only give you what you ask for!

how much tax did you pay last year? how many innocent people will be killed with that money?

you are paying for these deaths! you and your fellow americans, wake up and smell the coffee.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[kelpdiver 2]

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I live in a different country, have lived in 6 different countries and have visited over 15 different countries and am about to board an A380 and fly to the middle east for 2 weeks!

Try again, how many cpuntries have you been to and how receptive were they to your being american?

More than you.

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The paranoid tin hatters are the americans (less than 15% have passports)

Must have gotten that factoid from a truther site. 48 million passwords (more than 15%) in the past 3 years alone. The 9 year total is close to 100M. Most renew in the 10th year, but lost or damaged would eat into that total a bit.

The obvious uptick there comes from no longer being able to visit Mexico, Canada, and the bulk of the Caribbean without a passport. That occurred only in the past couple years. It's a pretty long flight to go further than that, and much more expensive than it is from London to Greece. Interestingly, as the EU relaxes its passport requirements for members, the rate there may decrease quickly.

U.S. Passports Issued per Fiscal Year (2009 - 1996):
2009 - 13,486,085 (including 1,550,529 passport cards)
2008 - 16,208,003 (including 523,706 passport cards)
2007 - 18,382,798
2006 - 12,133,537
2005 - 10,123,424
2004 - 8,825,410
2003 - 7,300,667
2002 - 7,001,482
2001 - 7,119,506
2000 - 7,292,182

[Erroll 80]

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.. 48 million passwords...

Just imagine the chaos if even half of those forgot their passwords!

[kelpdiver 2]

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According to the International Monetary Fund, the United States began the century producing 32 percent of the world's gross domestic product. We ended the decade producing 24 percent. No nation in modern history, save for the late Soviet Union, has seen so precipitous a decline in relative power in a single decade.

Before the thread drift, the discussion was about how to stem this decline. But does anyone think it's realistic that the US, with 5% of the world population, can maintain a world GDP of 25 (1/4) or 32 (1/3) percent? The EU has been largely at peace in the 00s, and had a decade before to digest the fall of the Soviet Union. China has grown to be a potential superpower with roughly 20% of the population, and the developing world has been moving as well.

Certain the country could help itself by not focusing on war making, which isn't terribly productive so much as consumptive. I also wonder if the years picked (2000 was peak of dot com boom, early 2009 saw the trough of the recession) exaggerate the rate of decline.

[rhys 0]

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Must have gotten that factoid from a truther site. 48 million passwords (more than 15%) in the past 3 years alone. The 9 year total is close to 100M. Most renew in the 10th year, but lost or damaged would eat into that total a bit.

shown clearly by you statisticas the amount of passports issued has risen dramatically over the past few years,

The figure has probably grown to more like less than 25%

http://www.gyford.com/phil/writing/2003/01/31/how_many_america.php

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[rhys 0]

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Before the thread drift, the discussion was about how to stem this decline. But does anyone think it's realistic that the US, with 5% of the world population, can maintain a world GDP of 25 (1/4) or 32 (1/3) percent?

not me, not as long as americans are too lazy/greedy to make anyhting themselves anyway.

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Certain the country could help itself by not focusing on war making, which isn't terribly productive so much as consumptive.

the understtement of the century!

about time you realised!

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[quade 4]

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I also wonder if the years picked (2000 was peak of dot com boom, early 2009 saw the trough of the recession) exaggerate the rate of decline.

Well, I suppose if you average out the GDP for as long 200 years it would look different, but peaks and valleys really are the only good way to judge this.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[kelpdiver 2]

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I also wonder if the years picked (2000 was peak of dot com boom, early 2009 saw the trough of the recession) exaggerate the rate of decline.

Well, I suppose if you average out the GDP for as long 200 years it would look different, but peaks and valleys really are the only good way to judge this.

peak to peak, or valley to valley make more sense than local peak to local valley. 5 or 10 year averaging graphs would be best of all.

[quade 4]

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I also wonder if the years picked (2000 was peak of dot com boom, early 2009 saw the trough of the recession) exaggerate the rate of decline.

Well, I suppose if you average out the GDP for as long 200 years it would look different, but peaks and valleys really are the only good way to judge this.

peak to peak, or valley to valley make more sense than local peak to local valley. 5 or 10 year averaging graphs would be best of all.

Uh . . . it was 10 years.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[kelpdiver 2]

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I also wonder if the years picked (2000 was peak of dot com boom, early 2009 saw the trough of the recession) exaggerate the rate of decline.

Well, I suppose if you average out the GDP for as long 200 years it would look different, but peaks and valleys really are the only good way to judge this.

peak to peak, or valley to valley make more sense than local peak to local valley. 5 or 10 year averaging graphs would be best of all.

Uh . . . it was 10 years.

you missed the "averaging" bit. The peak to valley happens to coincide with our current 10 year period. What would it be like if it were 1998 to 2008?

I tried to find this source of this info from the IMF, but it's a sea of data there.

[DrewEckhardt 0]

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>Eventually we'll meet and jobs will go where the people and resources are.

While that may well happen if our economy collapses (thus solving the problem) I don't see that as a very desirable solution.

I agree that's very unpleasant, think it's inevitable, and pray enough people get their heads out of the sand and do something effective to minimize the impact when the inevitable happens.

To summarize reality sucks. Reality sucks a lot. Here's why I think things are going to get screwed up based on first and second hand information.

This has a lot to do with why I have six figures (American Dollars) in cash not American real-estate. I've sold my real-estate and aim to be out of dollars before the inevitable happens. I don't like renting with questionable neighbors (the SWAT team has only come for one though). While a completely inappropriate debate argument I hope that's a reasonable sincerity demonstration.

This is more than an amusing intellectual debate and I really regret probably being right.

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In the past we've been able to make up for more expensive production by taking the lead in development, and I hope we can continue that.

In the past the first and third worlds have been very distinct places in terms of talent, capital, and culture. Those differences are nearly gone and the rate of closure is increasing.

Talent comes from inherent abilities, education, and experience.

I haven't seen anything to suggest that inherent talent respects national boundaries. That's after being great friends with successful foreign entrepeneurs, being friends with Asian/Eastern European/Middle Eastern (the common ground being low costs of living and labor costs) tech workers, and knowing other relevant people from Central America/Asia/Europe (there are a couple billion people there where the US is only 300 million).

The IIT schools and Tsinghua are arguably on par with American universities. On-the-job training counts for a lot and is very possible off-shore now that American companies are getting a significant fraction of their work-force beyond our borders.

Experience comes in less time when it's second or third-hand from some one who has put in a lot of effort and learned from others' experience. We have enough history in America of innovation and practical engineering application to do wonderful things. Any one experienced you'd want to hire has worked with people (or people who worked with people) with good technical insights or process experiences and picked up enough of the parts of that which worked well. I learned a lot more than I could have reading papers and theses having David Patterson (who invented RAID) as a technical advisor at one startup and working with a Digital Systems Research Center alumni (who also worked with Chandu Thekkath of Petal/Frangiapani and had at least had some influence from Leslie Lamport) at another. My minion of evil Haowei Li in China is progressing nicely as an engineer. Plenty of other companies are doing the same things, pairing American mentors with tier-1 experience to off-shore co-workers. Extended periods of American work-weeks with 3-4 hours 5 days a week of mentoring from experienced people should produce very competent workers in a short time frame.


That leaves capital. American companies are now doing research and development in developing countries for cost reasons, whether to get more out of their venture capital/cash (an Indian software engineer costs 1/10th what an American one does, and those guys are over-priced) or to turn a profit without giving anything up to the vultures with off-shore labor making the difference. In practice the money for new development efforts is moving off-shore. My friends have lived full-time in Eastern Europe and have teams there implementing their startups. Friends are living less than half-time in China (being there more would have tax consequences) to do well in startups.

While a lot of capital still flows from Sand Hill to American entrepeneurs, after the business plan and initial provisional patents/design an increasing number of companies are being built off-shore. More people are making their series-A and series-B go farther with off-shore development. More people are choosing to live in a developing country until a team is established (delegating the whole thing is currently a proven path to failure, although people will do a lot for millions (or hundreds of millions) in potential pay-offs), build a team there, and go to profitability while self-funded instead of selling half the company to people who do little and another quarter to the same people so they can stay alive until they actually make money. Although many new companies retain American C-level executives and middle management more of their other employees and their capital destination are elsewhere.

Culture as it applies to explosive business success is mostly a corporate thing. Coming from a native culture with Brahmin and Sudra doesn't preclude joining a startup where ideas are judged on immediate and future business impact or a second one where you believe that.

Some people would consider names for non-native speakers to be an issue, although my Chinese co-workers are adopting names like "Jack" and "Norman" so that's not an issue. Some people would consider bad accents to be an impediment although we've found that to be a non-issue when we use instant messaging. Working 11pm-3am on those conferences is sub-optimal, although I like owning a significant fraction of something which should turn into a billion dollar market cap with decent management and it doesn't impact sleep when the first in-person meeting in California isn't before 1pm.

Beyond that I've observed an industry which has progressed (in the early nineties) from some large companies delegating a few perceptually unimportant tasks to off-shore resources and a few astute small ones (we increased our profit margins putting American condoms in our shipments to Russia where we got Russian PhD's for very little) doing more to new companies doing most of their work (in 2010) over there. It's coming, the result will suck in the USA, and we're not going to undo that.

We should hope to make it suck less. Living in a tube apartment 5x5x8' alone or a normal sized apartment with cage subdivisions and 11 unrelated people would suck a lot. Living in a 1500 square foot row house with your family would suck less. Keeping your current home while commuting only periodically to a job in some other continent (via commercial air travel) may suck least.

I really wish those weren't strong probabilities. I'd like to spend my time mostly doing interesting things (like turning a cool provisional patent into a product) with much of the rest reading neat papers instead of learning Hindi and/or Mandarin. Unfortunately that's not realistic.

[nerdgirl 0]

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To summarize reality sucks. Reality sucks a lot. Here's why I think things are going to get screwed up based on first and second hand information.

Very interesting post. Thanks for taking the time to type it out.

I wonder how many years, decades prolly, it will be until folks doing work like you do and others in high tech start picking "Chinese" names?
The cultural inversion, obviously, isn't perfectly exact ... just a thought experiment.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[kallend 2,146]

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To summarize reality sucks. Reality sucks a lot. Here's why I think things are going to get screwed up based on first and second hand information.

Very interesting post. Thanks for taking the time to type it out.

I wonder how many years, decades prolly, it will be until folks doing work like you do and others in high tech start picking "Chinese" names?
The cultural inversion, obviously, isn't perfectly exact ... just a thought experiment.

/Marg

Ting-ling Wang would be a good choice.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Amazon 7]

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To summarize reality sucks. Reality sucks a lot. Here's why I think things are going to get screwed up based on first and second hand information.

Very interesting post. Thanks for taking the time to type it out.

I wonder how many years, decades prolly, it will be until folks doing work like you do and others in high tech start picking "Chinese" names?
The cultural inversion, obviously, isn't perfectly exact ... just a thought experiment.

/Marg

Ting-ling Wang would be a good choice.

Perfect name for the IT guy who screws things up all the time.

Wong Wai

[billvon 3,111]

>In the past the first and third worlds have been very distinct places in
>terms of talent, capital, and culture. Those differences are nearly gone . . . .

I agree there.

>and the rate of closure is increasing.

I disagree there, and the two are related. As the differences between the "third world" and the "first world" (which are no longer very meaningful distinctions) are reduced, the very forces that you list as causing US industry to migrate out of the US will begin to make those third world locations less desirable for companies to locate to.

When I first visited China perhaps fifteen years ago, it was a common practice for people from the outer provinces to go into the big industrial cities (Dongguan, Shenzen) work for a few years then retire to their towns with enough money to live like kings. Labor was so cheap that it was preferred to almost any automation; it was cheaper to have people wind transformers by hand than invest $25,000 in even a cheapo coil winder. After all, the machine would only last 20 years, and $25,000 was 25 years worth of salary for the winder.

This went on for decades. Eventually the standard of living in the provinces began to rise, and the people coming into the cities would no longer work for the same wages - so wages (and manufacturing costs) began to rise. As in the US, success bred a higher standard of living, which led to higher manufacturing costs.

>American companies are now doing research and development in
>developing countries for cost reasons, whether to get more out of their
>venture capital/cash (an Indian software engineer costs 1/10th what an
>American one does, and those guys are over-priced) or to turn a profit
>without giving anything up to the vultures with off-shore labor making the
>difference.

Exactly. But those off-shore countries are starting to want their share of the pie, and are learning the lessons of the vultures. As standards of living rise, so do wages and manufacturing costs. As countries like India invest massively in their educational and IT infrastructures, they're going to realize they have to pay for it - and having all their best and brightest leave for the US isn't helping there.

So the same forces that are driving companies out of the US are eventually going to create similar conditions in other countries. It will lag the US significantly, but eventually you'll see US companies deciding that given a choice between the backwoods of Kentucky and Shenzen, Kentucky has some advantages. Will that happen in 5 years? 10 years? Probably not. In 100 years? Almost certainly. And that factor, I think, is going to slow down the exodus of companies from the US.