Andrewwhyte 1 #1 December 21, 2009 Assuming the bill passes this year or very early next year: Political capital is a funny beast. In order to accomplish things you need to expend it and thus people feel you owe them now. However success tends to increase your base power (not good to be on the other side from the guy who tends to win), but not always (if the perception is that the accomplishment was not what it was made out to be or that the price paid was too high). So the question is has the prez blown his load on this file and will now be so beholden to Congress Dems that their agenda becomes paramount, or has he gained a Johnsonesque ability to grab hill types by the lapels and bend them to his will? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,120 #2 December 21, 2009 >So the question is has the prez blown his load on this file and will now be >so beholden to Congress Dems that their agenda becomes paramount, >or has he gained a Johnsonesque ability to grab hill types by the lapels >and bend them to his will? Neither. Many Republicans have predicted that this would be "his Waterloo" - the thing that broke him because republicans would not allow him to pass it. It looks like it (or a watered down version of it) will pass, so he hasn't been "broken" by this. He is not really beholden to anyone with this. He can claim (with a good amount of data to back him up) that this isn't what he asked for, that it has lost many of its key provisions. At the same time, he's demonstrated the ability to get legislation he wants passed at some level. That gives him at least the perception of being a power broker who can accomplish what he wants. A potential good outcome of this is that republicans may start working with democrats on more bipartisan solutions; they may realize that bills they oppose will succeed with or without their input, so they may as well work with them to make it as palatable to them as possible. A potential bad outcome is that the republicans may become vindictive and even more obstructionist, and/or democrats may decide they can do anything they want. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #3 December 21, 2009 does anyone even know what is being passed, yet? Hard to answer the question. If the changes don't take place for a few years, as I believe is the case for at least some of the elements, how much credit will recipients (voters) give him? I think the real answer to your question comes next November. If the Democrats take a heavy loss there, then he emerged with less. If the losses are minimal, nearly a given for a midterm election, then he has more. But this may be determined as much by the economy/deficit as perceptions of this health care reform. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #4 December 21, 2009 Quote At the same time, he's demonstrated the ability to get legislation he wants passed at some level. That gives him at least the perception of being a power broker who can accomplish what he wants. Well, most Presidents with 59/60 Senators can get bills passed. Clinton would have been much more effective in 1993 if he had 3 more on his side. With the way Lieberman and Nelson held the process hostage, does that indicate power? Given the nature of the legislation it may. For almost anything else, it would indicate weakness. (As soon as this thing is signed, it's probably time to strip Joe of every piece of power he has that Reid has a say in) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,120 #5 December 21, 2009 >Well, most Presidents with 59/60 Senators can get bills passed. I agree. The only thing that's really changed is that the republicans who were convinced this would "break" him have suffered a setback. >As soon as this thing is signed, it's probably time to strip Joe of >every piece of power he has that Reid has a say in They'll never do that; they need him. Now, if another senator switches sides, they'd drop Joe like a hot potato. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #6 December 21, 2009 Quote >As soon as this thing is signed, it's probably time to strip Joe of >every piece of power he has that Reid has a say in They'll never do that; they need him. Now, if another senator switches sides, they'd drop Joe like a hot potato. I don't think they need him nearly as much as he thinks they do. He's acting as if he were the Majority Leader. Take away every committee membership and see if he changes his tune - at least stops blind siding his party. Some people may be angry with Nelson, but he didn't jerk them around on the abortion issue - that was always his stance. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
