Carrying Guns on Public Transportation

[JohnRich 4]

News:

Marta crime rate falls in wake of gun law

The Georgia General Assembly passed HB 89 in 2008, which eliminated prohibitions on carrying firearms on public transportation, in restaurants that serve alcohol, in state parks, and in wildlife management areas, by Georgians possessing a firearms license. HB 89 took effect on July 1, 2008, and many predicted mass bloodshed as a result. Nowhere was the controversy so acute as the city of Atlanta and its public transportation system, like the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit system, known affectionately to Atlantans by the acronym MARTA...

So at the end of 2009, it is worth a look to see what actually happened to crime rates on MARTA. Since July of 2008, there have been no news stories of blazing gun battles on MARTA, which would surely have been newsworthy events. That leaves interested researchers with the publicly available crime rates, and they tell a story at odds with the hysterical predictions of 2008.

Murders drop to zero

In 2007, MARTA had two murders occur on its property. In 2008, the year the new law took effect and peaceable citizens began lawfully carrying firearms on MARTA trains and buses, the number of murders dropped to zero, and there has not been a murder reported on the system since.

Robbery rate drops

There were 94 robberies on the MARTA system in 2007. In 2008, the year the new law took effect, the number of robberies dropped to 71, and in 2009, it has dropped again to 67 (although we still have two weeks to go).

Overall rate lower

The overall rate per number of riders has also dropped since the new law took effect.

Part I Crime Rate per 1,000,000 Riders

MARTA PART I CRIME RATE         FY06*   FY07*   FY08*   FY09*

PER 1,000 RIDERS                3.90%   3.34%   3.35%   3.09%

Not all categories of crime experienced a decrease, however. Aggravated assaults went up from 2007 to 2008 and remained constant for 2009. The statistics also reflect one rape in the first quarter of 2009, with none in the previous three years...

The MARTA crime numbers speak for themselves. HB 89 has failed to live up to its reputation as a serious compromiser of community safety...

Source: http://www.examiner.com/x-5619-Atlanta-Gun-Rights-Examiner~y2009m12d14-Marta-crime-rate-falls-in-wake-of-gun-law

So the anti-gun logic seems to go something like this: "Maybe we can trust you with a gun OUTSIDE of a bus, but we certainly can't trust you with a gun ON the bus. Because as soon as you set foot inside that bus, your whole demeanor will suddenly change, and you'll get an irresistible urge to shoot everyone!" Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

[quade 4]

Just a minor point, are we now calling them "licensed" instead of concealed carry holders?

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[JohnRich 4]

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Just a minor point, are we now calling them "licensed" instead of concealed carry holders?

This particular story involves people who are licensed to carry concealed handguns, as opposed to just allowing everyone in the general public to carry concealed handguns without a license. So that's the way I framed the poll. Those who are licensed by the state, have had background checks and training.

[rushmc 23]

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News:

Marta crime rate falls in wake of gun law

The Georgia General Assembly passed HB 89 in 2008, which eliminated prohibitions on carrying firearms on public transportation, in restaurants that serve alcohol, in state parks, and in wildlife management areas, by Georgians possessing a firearms license. HB 89 took effect on July 1, 2008, and many predicted mass bloodshed as a result. Nowhere was the controversy so acute as the city of Atlanta and its public transportation system, like the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit system, known affectionately to Atlantans by the acronym MARTA...

So at the end of 2009, it is worth a look to see what actually happened to crime rates on MARTA. Since July of 2008, there have been no news stories of blazing gun battles on MARTA, which would surely have been newsworthy events. That leaves interested researchers with the publicly available crime rates, and they tell a story at odds with the hysterical predictions of 2008.

Murders drop to zero

In 2007, MARTA had two murders occur on its property. In 2008, the year the new law took effect and peaceable citizens began lawfully carrying firearms on MARTA trains and buses, the number of murders dropped to zero, and there has not been a murder reported on the system since.

Robbery rate drops

There were 94 robberies on the MARTA system in 2007. In 2008, the year the new law took effect, the number of robberies dropped to 71, and in 2009, it has dropped again to 67 (although we still have two weeks to go).

Overall rate lower

The overall rate per number of riders has also dropped since the new law took effect.

Part I Crime Rate per 1,000,000 Riders

MARTA PART I CRIME RATE         FY06*   FY07*   FY08*   FY09*

PER 1,000 RIDERS                3.90%   3.34%   3.35%   3.09%

Not all categories of crime experienced a decrease, however. Aggravated assaults went up from 2007 to 2008 and remained constant for 2009. The statistics also reflect one rape in the first quarter of 2009, with none in the previous three years...

The MARTA crime numbers speak for themselves. HB 89 has failed to live up to its reputation as a serious compromiser of community safety...

Source: http://www.examiner.com/x-5619-Atlanta-Gun-Rights-Examiner~y2009m12d14-Marta-crime-rate-falls-in-wake-of-gun-law

So the anti-gun logic seems to go something like this: "Maybe we can trust you with a gun OUTSIDE of a bus, but we certainly can't trust you with a gun ON the bus. Because as soon as you set foot inside that bus, your whole demeanor will suddenly change, and you'll get an irresistible urge to shoot everyone!" Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

This would suggest that criminals 'thinking" you may have a gun is a deterrent

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[nerdgirl 0]

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Just a minor point, are we now calling them "licensed" instead of concealed carry holders?

In Georgia, they're called Georgia Firearms Licenses (GFL) rather than CCL or CCW permits. It's Georgia terminology.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

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This would suggest that criminals 'thinking" you may have a gun is a deterrent

It suggests that there may be a correlation. Doesn't show causation, i.e., a deterrent. It might be ... but it's not necessarily the case.

For example, the Atlanta Police Officers with whom I've spoken attribute the decline in crime to something very different - to rain. Yes, rain. We've has a very rainy year, especially compared to previous ones. They assert that criminals don't like to come out in the rain. Their explanation.

There has been at least one study that I found easily that did investigate the correlation between weather and crime: "Weather and Crime" (full text pdf)

Abstract: In studying the causes of crime, most criminologists have concentrated on traditional socio-demographic variables, such as age, sex, race, and socio-economic status. However, some researchers have investigated the influence of the physical environment on criminal behaviour. There is a recent theoretical basis for research into the influence of weather on crime: the situational approach, rational choice theory, and routine activities theory all suggest that weather could significantly influence crime rates and criminal behaviour. This paper brings together for the first time the accumulated research on weather and crime. It discusses the theoretical background, examines research into the influence of different weather conditions (such as high temperatures, rain, and wind) on various types of criminal behaviour, outlines problems with the current research, and suggests ways of advancing knowledge about weather and crime.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[JohnRich 4]

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the Atlanta Police Officers with whom I've spoken attribute the decline in crime to something very different - to rain.

Atlanta's average annual rainfall is 50-inches. In 2009 they've had 64-inches.

So, maybe we should install sprinkler systems over the streets in the crime-prone areas.

And require licenses for umbrellas - so that those with criminal records can't have them.

[nerdgirl 0]

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Those who are licensed by the state, have had background checks and training.

In Georgia, one does not have to demonstrate specific training to get a GFL. While it's not a State site, Georgia Packing has been the best source of information that I've found.

Got a GA DPS 445 sitting on my desk that I want/need to take over to Fulton County Probate Court.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

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the Atlanta Police Officers with whom I've spoken attribute the decline in crime to something very different - to rain.

Atlanta's average annual rainfall is 50-inches. In 2009 they've had 64-inches.

What was the rainfall in 2008 & 2007?

If you have issue with the explanation, please take it up with the cops. Even good correlation does not prove causation.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[JohnRich 4]

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Atlanta's average annual rainfall is 50-inches. In 2009 they've had 64-inches.

What was the rainfall in 2008 & 2007?

If you have issue with the explanation, please take it up with the cops. Even good correlation does not prove causation.

I don't know why you're getting all uppity. I provided data which supported your assertion. I'm just throwing data out there for consideration. And I understand that correlation does not necessarily prove causation. My "sprinklers and umbrellas" comment was intended as humor, not ridicule. Okay?

[nerdgirl 0]

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Atlanta's average annual rainfall is 50-inches. In 2009 they've had 64-inches.

What was the rainfall in 2008 & 2007?

If you have issue with the explanation, please take it up with the cops. Even good correlation does not prove causation.

I don't know why you're getting all uppity. I provided data which supported your assertion. I'm just throwing data out there for consideration. And I understand that correlation does not necessarily prove causation. My "sprinklers and umbrellas" comment was intended as humor, not ridicule. Okay?

John - I did not read your comments as humor. There was no indicators that they were humor.
If you argument is strong enough, good challenges will only strengthen it. Tangents to calling someone names &/or ad hominems are a distraction from communication, imo.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[kelpdiver 2]

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If you have issue with the explanation, please take it up with the cops. Even good correlation does not prove causation.
/Marg

The cops aren't scientists. The explanation certainly stands to reason, and a counterpart is that hot summers/weather correlates with higher murder rates. I'd expect the distribution of the rain would matter more than simple rainfall amounts.

But I think the point of the citation he made was that there is no observable uptick in metrics as predicted by the CCW foes. It's not really necessary prove an improvement as it is to ascertain that it did not do harm.

Until very recently, it was not a rainy year in California, though note that the rain season is defined here as summer -> summer, not calendar year.

[nerdgirl 0]

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but I think the point of the citation he made was that there is no observable uptick in metrics as predicted by the CCW foes. It's not really necessary prove an improvement as it is to ascertain that it did not do harm. [/REPLY]

Concur.

The post to which I responded made the link to asserting that there was a positive causation (deterrence) effect: "This would suggest that criminals 'thinking" you may have a gun is a deterrent."

/Marg

p.s. The largest volume of rain ocurred in the summer/early fall & ya did see my link to the scientists/criminologists, yes?

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[rushmc 23]

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This would suggest that criminals 'thinking" you may have a gun is a deterrent

It suggests that there may be a correlation. Doesn't show causation, i.e., a deterrent. It might be ... but it's not necessarily the case.

For example, the Atlanta Police Officers with whom I've spoken attribute the decline in crime to something very different - to rain. Yes, rain. We've has a very rainy year, especially compared to previous ones. They assert that criminals don't like to come out in the rain. Their explanation.

There has been at least one study that I found easily that did investigate the correlation between weather and crime: "Weather and Crime" (full text pdf)

Abstract: In studying the causes of crime, most criminologists have concentrated on traditional socio-demographic variables, such as age, sex, race, and socio-economic status. However, some researchers have investigated the influence of the physical environment on criminal behaviour. There is a recent theoretical basis for research into the influence of weather on crime: the situational approach, rational choice theory, and routine activities theory all suggest that weather could significantly influence crime rates and criminal behaviour. This paper brings together for the first time the accumulated research on weather and crime. It discusses the theoretical background, examines research into the influence of different weather conditions (such as high temperatures, rain, and wind) on various types of criminal behaviour, outlines problems with the current research, and suggests ways of advancing knowledge about weather and crime.

/Marg

I know and I agree with your statements.

Way too many variables involved to make any hard conclusions

It is interesting howerver that in EVERY case where restrictions on gun ownership have been eased, the predictions of blood in the streets has never come close to being true. (conceal carry laws in FL and
tx are the two that come to mind easily)

But here, I was just trying to kick the sleeping dog without getting bitten

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rehmwa 2]

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John - I did not read your comments as humor.

outlawing umbrellas and requiring sprinklers? - I read that as humor

cynical/wry humor reflecting the idiocy of some gun law proposals

ironic humor in that it seems more and more nutjobs would take sprinklers as a serious crime prevention method....(case in point, running, whistles, outlawing butter knives, sympathizing with criminals, etc etc etc ad nauseum)

but definitely humor

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[Ron 10]

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There was no indicators that they were humor.

You don't see installing sprinklers in bad areas and requiring a license to own an umbrella as a humorous solution to a crime problem?

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

[nerdgirl 0]

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There was no indicators that they were humor.

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outlawing umbrellas and requiring sprinklers? - I read that as humor

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You don't see installing sprinklers in bad areas and requiring a license to own an umbrella as a humorous solution to a crime problem?

No, not within the context of the response.
It appeared to be ridiculing my response citing the APD's asserted correlation iullustrating how correlation does not necessarily convey causation.

Do you want to 'talk' about the findings and what they may or may not mean for public policy, or do you both just want to tangent the thread to me?
(And, I'm okay with the latter ... but I may start invoking multiple citations and normative arguments regarding personal privacy.)

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[JohnRich 4]

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John - I did not read your comments as humor.

In the future, then, I'll be sure to make a big disclaimer, just for you. It'll look something like this:

Warning: nerdgirl - please be advised that the following is HUMOR.

If you thought that my proposal to "license umbrellas" was serious, then you need to loosen up a bit.
I would have thought all those brains of yours would have been able to discern the difference.

[nerdgirl 0]

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John - I did not read your comments as humor.

In the future, then, I'll be sure to make a big disclaimer, just for you. It'll look something like this:

Warning: nerdgirl - please be advised that the following is HUMOR.

If you thought that my proposal to "license umbrellas" was serious, then you need to loosen up a bit.
I would have thought all those brains of yours would have been able to discern the difference.

That's your choice.

To quote another poster (who has nothing to with this, but I thought the comment was a fitting parallel) from another gun thread today: "Yep if you have no argument you can always mock someone."

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[mnealtx 0]

Given as how the ice cream / murder argument has been mentioned several times in gun crime threads, I saw it as John poking fun back at the anti-gunners.

Your mileage, of course, may vary.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[nerdgirl 0]

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Given as how the ice cream / murder argument has been mentioned several times in gun crime threads, I saw it as John poking fun back at the anti-gunners.

If that is so then why did he address it to me?
And how do you explain his next post with the "uppity" comment?

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[mnealtx 0]

Possibly a bit of a 'bite back' for the 'if you have issues with the explanation' comment - that's my guess, anyway; you'd have to ask him to know for sure.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[Amazon 7]

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Given as how the ice cream / murder argument has been mentioned several times in gun crime threads, I saw it as John poking fun back at the anti-gunners.

If that is so then why did he address it to me?
And how do you explain his next post with the "uppity" comment?

/Marg

Damn those uppity types round these parts

[nerdgirl 0]

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Possibly a bit of a 'bite back' for the 'if you have issues with the explanation' comment - that's my guess, anyway; you'd have to ask him to know for sure.

Which was why I was so very explicit in my original post to repeatedly emphasize that it wasn't my argument ... but "Their explanation." It is a curious explanation worth investigating, as was the assertion to which I responded. It's not mine to defend.

Even if the interpretation you describe was true, which may be plausible, does that enable a "pass" on invoking an ad hominem? Are ad hominems okay if one agrees with the poster?

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

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Given as how the ice cream / murder argument has been mentioned several times in gun crime threads, I saw it as John poking fun back at the anti-gunners.

If that is so then why did he address it to me?
And how do you explain his next post with the "uppity" comment?

Damn those uppity types round these parts

The irony is on a per-post basis, I'm probably one of the most self-deprecating posters around because I do laugh at myself. (See sig line.)
E.g., how many times do I include comments like "-[at myself]"?

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying