Is anyone still foolish enough to believe Reagan scared the Iranians into releasing the hostages?

[Lucky... 0]

The Algiers Accord was signed the day before Reagan was inaugurated, this is the 100% reason why the hostages were released, not some fear of Reagan. The Beirut Barracks bombing is evidence of that.

Here's a long read of the agreement: http://www.parstimes.com/history/algiers_accords.pdf

And a short read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algiers_Accords

[Andy9o8 2]

As a government major who's studied the MidEast a lot, I guess I'm foolish. That's my yes vote up there.

Sure, the Algiers accord played the role it played; but I think it's far less likely that it would have been successfully negotiated, with substantially the same terms, and signed by Iran in substantially the same time period, had Carter been re-elected. I do think the Iranians were greatly influenced - at least in part - by some real concern that if they didn't put their hostages gambit behind them, Reagan would kick their asses.

The fact that the Iranians did what they did (partly by proxy, partly directly) to the Marine barracks in Beirut does not alter my analysis re: the hostages issue.

[BillyVance 35]

I read something about this in the newspaper this morning.

This quote I think was pretty much the main reason the hostages were released.

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The US would remove a freeze on Iranian assets and trade sanctions on Iran

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[skyrider 0]

Nice Unbais poll questions up there! Why bother asking, if your mind is made up?

[Lucky... 0]

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As a government major who's studied the MidEast a lot, I guess I'm foolish. That's my yes vote up there.

Sure, the Algiers accord played the role it played; but I think it's far less likely that it would have been successfully negotiated, with substantially the same terms, and signed by Iran in substantially the same time period, had Carter been re-elected. I do think the Iranians were greatly influenced - at least in part - by some real concern that if they didn't put their hostages gambit behind them, Reagan would kick their asses.

The fact that the Iranians did what they did (partly by proxy, partly directly) to the Marine barracks in Beirut does not alter my analysis re: the hostages issue.

No but it goes to the fear of Reagan issue; they weren't. No one is afraid of us, not the Saudis, not anyone. Looka t Chavez, is he afraid? Could we go snatch him like Noriga? Sure, he says FO US, go ahead and the M.E. folks in 81 didn't care either. With that said we could continue to wipe up a lot of small countries, but they are just not afraid evenif they should be.

As for more motivation for signing the accord, how about absolution for all debts and criminal charges related to the Iranian Hostage Crisis more. Basically we surrendered and forgave and they gave over the booty, why would they want to go further? They won, how is Reagan a factor? These guys live for Johad anyway. I just laugh when I hear people talking as if other nations or radiccal groups, esp ME nations or groups give a fuck as to our politics. They attacked under Reagan, just as Clinton took office for GHWB's Gulf War and the biggy under GWB; they just don't care who's in office and might even be more motivated to attck under whichever party is more aggressive to incite a Jihad.

[quade 4]

I always thought it was less of a nod to Reagan and much more of a fuck you to Carter.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[Lucky... 0]

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I read something about this in the newspaper this morning.

This quote I think was pretty much the main reason the hostages were released.

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The US would remove a freeze on Iranian assets and trade sanctions on Iran

I have been meaning to post this for a while, I didn't just read it butthat's interesting, I'd like to read it if ya can find it. It was a sweetheart deal considering what the fucks did, their only motivation were the goods, complete exoneration, fiscal and criminal and then their goodies back. They didn't give a rat's ass about Reagan.

The rescue failed so Carter probably didn't want to pass off his mess to Reagan, so he gave in. The timing made all the RW nuts run around claiming fear from Reagan, and it would be easy to fall into if you weren't aware of the accord, I felt that way for years.

[Lucky... 0]

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Nice Unbais poll questions up there! Why bother asking, if your mind is made up?

The poll is more rhetorical, addess the issue. Convince me that teh Iranians didn't care of the swwetheart deal, but were afraid of Reagan as all small countries were/are, but then we have been atatcked regardless of who is in office.

[Lucky... 0]

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I always thought it was less of a nod to Reagan and much more of a fuck you to Carter.

I think it's just a deal too sweet to pass up.

[Andy9o8 2]

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it goes to the fear of Reagan issue; they weren't.

I say they were.

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No one is afraid of us, not the Saudis, not anyone.

That's a very simplistic view.
The Libyans backed off some of their confrontational stand toward the US once the US shot down a few of their fighters in the Gulf of Sidra and conducted an air raid on Libyan territory that caused about 40 casualties, including Quaddafi's infant adopted daughter.

Non-state actors have less fear of the US than state actors do - partly because it's a lot harder to go after non-state actors, and partly because non-state actors (ie, terrorists) often desire to provoke their targets into retaliatory action.

There are many state actors that would presumably love to attack US assets directly, but do not because they recognize that US retaliation could crush them. So, they either go "so far", but are careful not to cross a certain line - that's what Hugo Chavez does, for example - or they act through networks of non-state proxies - which is a classic Iranian tactic.

[quade 4]

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I always thought it was less of a nod to Reagan and much more of a fuck you to Carter.

I think it's just a deal too sweet to pass up.

And understand that I'm not against Carter, but certainly the Iranian students had been screwing with him and vice versa for a very long time. I think the timing just worked out in such a way that the students could end the conflict and finally get on with their lives but wanted to hold out for that moment to give Carter one final fuck you.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[downwardspiral 0]

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Nice Unbais poll questions up there! Why bother asking, if your mind is made up?

The poll is more rhetorical, addess the issue. Convince me that teh Iranians didn't care of the swwetheart deal, but were afraid of Reagan as all small countries were/are, but then we have been atatcked regardless of who is in office.

Let me ask you this...have you ever on dz.com been convinced you were wrong?

www.FourWheelerHB.com

[Andy9o8 2]

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I always thought it was less of a nod to Reagan and much more of a fuck you to Carter.

There's definitely the fuck-you-Carter factor, too, which I almost mentioned above, but didn't want my post to get too long.

(There's other semi-recent historical precedent for that kind of thing, too. For example, the North Vietnamese hated LBJ's guts with a passion; and I don't think it's a simple coincidence that they tentatively agreed to a peace agreement with the US almost immediately after LBJ died, which was while Nixon was president. I remember some punditry speculation at the time to the effect that the NVs wouldn't give Johnson the satisfaction of signing a peace deal as long as the SOB was still alive.)

[kelpdiver 2]

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I always thought it was less of a nod to Reagan and much more of a fuck you to Carter.

I think that covers 80% of it. The remaining 20% could be whatever, including the long running conspiracy that they made a deal with Reagan.

[FallingOsh 0]

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Nice Unbais poll questions up there! Why bother asking, if your mind is made up?

The poll is more rhetorical, addess the issue. Convince me that teh Iranians didn't care of the swwetheart deal, but were afraid of Reagan as all small countries were/are, but then we have been atatcked regardless of who is in office.

Well the rhetorical and completely bias poll is still leaning towards 'yes.'

Fail.

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Stay positive and love your life.

[Lucky... 0]

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I always thought it was less of a nod to Reagan and much more of a fuck you to Carter.

I think it's just a deal too sweet to pass up.

And understand that I'm not against Carter, but certainly the Iranian students had been screwing with him and vice versa for a very long time. I think the timing just worked out in such a way that the students could end the conflict and finally get on with their lives but wanted to hold out for that moment to give Carter one final fuck you.

There are probably a lot of reasons that culminate why the hostages were released, as well a lot of diff factions within Iran that had different reasons and felt a sense of victory for several reasons. But this was a qusai-government, quasi-revolutionary student action, at least after the embassy was taken over, allegedly Khomeini didn't know of the attack, but after it was done he backed it all the way. So was this about revolutionary students or a revolutionary political leader, or both? In reality I believe Khomeini knew of the attack beforhand.

Other than the fact that Carter ws the sitting preseient of, to them, the Great Satan, Carter was the most Arab-friendly president in a long time, so I don't think that was the main reason. Of course Reagan was more abrasive in ways, he was willing to provide the Iranians arms via Iran-Contra and the October Surprise Theory. Your claim of 'hold out' could easily fall in line with this as well.

So as with most things, the answer is, "all of the above" but I attribute the majority of the reason for the release to just getting a victory over the US, and release of funds and promise to not engage in their business, a promise we have reneged upon, but at the time a win against the Great Satan.

[Lucky... 0]

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Nice Unbais poll questions up there! Why bother asking, if your mind is made up?

The poll is more rhetorical, addess the issue. Convince me that teh Iranians didn't care of the swwetheart deal, but were afraid of Reagan as all small countries were/are, but then we have been atatcked regardless of who is in office.

Let me ask you this...have you ever on dz.com been convinced you were wrong?

Have you ever been stuck on an issue and not resorted to ad hominem rather than address the issue? (rhetorical ?)

[Lucky... 0]

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I always thought it was less of a nod to Reagan and much more of a fuck you to Carter.

There's definitely the fuck-you-Carter factor, too, which I almost mentioned above, but didn't want my post to get too long.

(There's other semi-recent historical precedent for that kind of thing, too. For example, the North Vietnamese hated LBJ's guts with a passion; and I don't think it's a simple coincidence that they tentatively agreed to a peace agreement with the US almost immediately after LBJ died, which was while Nixon was president. I remember some punditry speculation at the time to the effect that the NVs wouldn't give Johnson the satisfaction of signing a peace deal as long as the SOB was still alive.)

I just don't think Carter gave the Iranian students/Iranian gov any reason to do the fuck you thing.

[Lucky... 0]

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I always thought it was less of a nod to Reagan and much more of a fuck you to Carter.

I think that covers 80% of it. The remaining 20% could be whatever, including the long running conspiracy that they made a deal with Reagan.

The October Surprise theory. Yea, I think it was more of a way to win one of the so-called Great Satan, I don't percieve a lot of anti-Carter sentiment.

[Lucky... 0]

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Nice Unbais poll questions up there! Why bother asking, if your mind is made up?

The poll is more rhetorical, addess the issue. Convince me that teh Iranians didn't care of the swwetheart deal, but were afraid of Reagan as all small countries were/are, but then we have been atatcked regardless of who is in office.

Well the rhetorical and completely bias poll is still leaning towards 'yes.'

Fail.

So then, yes, people are foolish? 21 votes, sounds scientific to me

[Lucky... 0]

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Nice Unbais poll questions up there! Why bother asking, if your mind is made up?

The poll is more rhetorical, addess the issue. Convince me that teh Iranians didn't care of the swwetheart deal, but were afraid of Reagan as all small countries were/are, but then we have been atatcked regardless of who is in office.

Well the rhetorical and completely bias poll is still leaning towards 'yes.'

Fail.

So then, yes, people are foolish? 21 votes, sounds scientific to me

Now it's 16:7. Not a scientific poll, but let's say it is. Makes you stop wondering how we've elected garbage like Reagan and GWB 4 times out of 6 elections from 80 to 2004.

Thinking radical Arabs are afraid of anyone, esp a US president is as brilliant as thinking tax cuts lead to prosperity; these have all been disproven continually throughout history multiple times, yet people still buy into them. We get the gov we deserve.

[timmyfitz 0]

Lucky, you never cease to make me laugh.

[Lucky... 0]

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Lucky, you never cease to make me laugh.

And you never cease to have nothing to say.

[Andy9o8 2]

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Now it's 16:7. Not a scientific poll, but let's say it is. Makes you stop wondering how we've elected garbage like Reagan and GWB 4 times out of 6 elections from 80 to 2004.

First: As I discussed up-thread, speaking at least for myself, my Yes vote was based on historical and political analysis for which I think I'm at least moderately qualified, as are others in this thread. I don't think a yes vote is "foolish."

Second: Not that I want Republican readers to think I view them as "garbage", for I certainly don't; but you forgot the 1988 election in which GHWB was elected.

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Thinking radical Arabs are afraid of anyone, esp a US president ....

Third: The Iranians - who are the subject matter of the OP - are not Arabs.

Fourth: Do not confuse radical non-state terrorists with hostile and radical national governments, for they are not one and the same.
Yes, the hostages were originally kidnapped by radical non-state actors. But by the end of the hostage crisis, the Iranian government had the power and ability to effect their release; and in fact, their release was ultimately effected by that government. And once the ability to release the hostages morphed into that of the Iranian government, responsibility for their continued captivity was also that of the Iranian government. The Americans knew it; and more importantly, the new Iranian government knew that the Americans knew it of them.

And as I also noted up-thread, while it's often true that non-state actors have some freedom to act violently with impunity toward powerful nations like the US and others (because there's little or no static infrastructure against which to retaliate), state actors (i.e., nations and their governments) have far less such freedom. And that makes national governments quite rightly subject to fear that if they fuck with the US militarily, the US will kick their asses. Terrorist cells don't really give a shit about whether the US immolates Tehran or Damascus; but the governments of Iran and Syria most certainly do.

[FallingOsh 0]

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Nice Unbais poll questions up there! Why bother asking, if your mind is made up?

The poll is more rhetorical, addess the issue. Convince me that teh Iranians didn't care of the swwetheart deal, but were afraid of Reagan as all small countries were/are, but then we have been atatcked regardless of who is in office.

Well the rhetorical and completely bias poll is still leaning towards 'yes.'

Fail.

So then, yes, people are foolish? 21 votes, sounds scientific to me

It's funny that the majority of people prefer to call themselves fools rather than agree with you.

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Stay positive and love your life.