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akarunway

USA preparing to bomb Iran?

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I don’t know whether or not the US is planning to bomb Iran.

This story, imo, does not indicate one way or the other.

Looking at the DD1415s, aka updated ‘R-forms’, submitted to Congress is interesting to me. Owned very much as my subjective definition of "interesting." :P We all can do a whole lot of speculating, with a wide range of knowledge underlying those speculations.

The Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) program is a joint R&D program between the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). It arose out of perceived urgent needs against hardened and deeply buried targets in Iraq (not Iran) and Afghanistan. Before the MOP, there was the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP). There were technical and political problems with the RNEP. It got zero'd out in the 2006 budget reconciliation process. A more 'politically-palatable' alternative was the MOP, which is non-nuclear. In 2006, there were still a lot of old Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) guys at DTRA. A strategic decision to bomb Iran is *way* above the pay grades of the directors of either DTRA or AFRL.

Things known from 2008: when Boeing prepared and submitted its budget request for the R&D contract on the MOP in 2006, the cost of testing was severely underestimated by Boeing. AFRL needs more money in its budget because the DTRA budget isn’t covering it.

Research to enable modification of the B-2s began in 2007. AFAIK, they haven’t been successful, hence need more money.

Don’t know when the reprogramming doc was submitted to Congress exactly. Requests were due internally to the DoD 15 May 2009. DTRA oversees the MOP testing program (it’s their tunnel in which the tests are done in New Mexico not the USAFs) … so much speculation possible here that I’m just not even going to touch.

Things I don’t understand w/r/t reprogramming docs: Budget Activity 1 is basic research. Congress usually won’t move BA1 to BA7. Not to say that they never have (I don’t know) or that they wouldn’t … just wouldn’t be something on which I would be wager monetarily, programmatically, or politically.

IIrc, there are something like 5000 outstanding UONs. There is (or was) a UON for stand-off biological detection. To meet the request, new physics need to be developed/understood to achieve the sensitivity and distance (“requirements”) desired. The operators ask for something, that doesn’t mean acquisition (read: US industrial base) can deliver. Folks are trying.

There’s an urgent need for better detection of IEDs. Has been one for some time. Imo, the solution is not going to be a materials (stuff) one but more likely non-material, e.g., look at what the Indian Army has done in Kashmir.

Could the MOP program be resurrected/revitalized/increased as a means to challenge Iran? Sure. But I think the vector is in the wrong direction. Imo, it's more likely that Iran's nuclear program is being used post-hoc as justification to increase budgets for a program that has had contracting, technical, and political problems. (That doesn't mean I do or don't think MOP is a useful capability; I'm just recognizing the problems.)

/Marg


Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

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And THAT is what grinds my gears.



So it's the media's damatization of the fact, not the administration ruling it out, that's aggrivating?

Makes sense. I misunderstood the original comment.

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On the other hand, the fact that military action is even being mentioned in light of the fact that Iran is in complete compliance with the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty is alarming. Perhaps it's a foreshadowing.


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Iran is not in compliance. the treaty states that you need to anounce plans of building before building starts. the only reason they have anounced anything is because they got caught. then used the section about anouncing 6 months prior to bringing the facility online to say they are in compliance.

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Iran is not in compliance. the treaty states that you need to anounce plans of building before building starts. the only reason they have anounced anything is because they got caught. then used the section about anouncing 6 months prior to bringing the facility online to say they are in compliance.



Would you point the part of the NPT indicating this? Thanks.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

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Iran is not in compliance. the treaty states that you need to anounce plans of building before building starts. the only reason they have anounced anything is because they got caught. then used the section about anouncing 6 months prior to bringing the facility online to say they are in compliance.



Would you point the part of the NPT indicating this? Thanks.

/Marg



I saw it in a news article I could not find the article again but that does not change the fact that they are not complying and are making weapons grade material and will soon be put on notice. it is a game they are playing and it will cause serious problems down the road

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Would you point the part of the NPT indicating this?



I saw it in a news article I could not find the article again but that does not change the fact that they are not complying and are making weapons grade material and will soon be put on notice. it is a game they are playing and it will cause serious problems down the road



Nerdgirl linked to the actual treaty, so there is no need to rely on any other article that you've read. Just read the (short) treaty and point out the portion which supports your assertion.
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I didn't see anything on notifying before building, but the IAEA safeguards talk pretty specifically about inspections. Since the facilities were built in secret without any inspection, to my knowledge, I don't see how they can be in compliance.

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I didn't see anything on notifying before building, but the IAEA safeguards talk pretty specifically about inspections. Since the facilities were built in secret without any inspection, to my knowledge, I don't see how they can be in compliance.



To which Article are you referring?
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...the fact that they are not complying and are making weapons grade material and will soon be put on notice.



LOL! They are making weapons grade material at a site under construction and 18 months from completion? LOL!
Here's something to fear.., "Sources tell us that Saddam Hussein is is importing yellowcake from Niger.

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I didn't see anything on notifying before building, but the IAEA safeguards talk pretty specifically about inspections. Since the facilities were built in secret without any inspection, to my knowledge, I don't see how they can be in compliance.



To which Article are you referring?



Article III, section 1.

IAEA Safeguards specifically talk about inspections for the purpose of verifying peaceful intentions. The IAEA is scheduled to visit the site on October 25th. If they give the thumbs up then the discussion can take another turn.

Hiding a facility is not following the treaty. The only reason they're following it now, in my opinion, is because they got caught. We'll see what happens after the IAEA visit.

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To which Article are you referring?



Article III, section 1.

IAEA Safeguards specifically talk about inspections for the purpose of verifying peaceful intentions. The IAEA is scheduled to visit the site on October 25th. If they give the thumbs up then the discussion can take another turn.

Hiding a facility is not following the treaty. The only reason they're following it now, in my opinion, is because they got caught. We'll see what happens after the IAEA visit.



I'm not seeing how that particular section indicates a violation of the treaty on the part of Iran.

Which clause do you feel Iran has violated?

Article III, § 1.:

Each non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty undertakes to accept safeguards, as set forth in an agreement to be negotiated and concluded with the International Atomic Energy Agency in accordance with the Statute of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Agencys safeguards system, for the exclusive purpose of verification of the fulfillment of its obligations assumed under this Treaty with a view to preventing diversion of nuclear energy from peaceful uses to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. Procedures for the safeguards required by this article shall be followed with respect to source or special fissionable material whether it is being produced, processed or used in any principal nuclear facility or is outside any such facility. The safeguards required by this article shall be applied to all source or special fissionable material in all peaceful nuclear activities within the territory of such State, under its jurisdiction, or carried out under its control anywhere.

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To which Article are you referring?



Article III, section 1.

IAEA Safeguards specifically talk about inspections for the purpose of verifying peaceful intentions. The IAEA is scheduled to visit the site on October 25th. If they give the thumbs up then the discussion can take another turn.

Hiding a facility is not following the treaty. The only reason they're following it now, in my opinion, is because they got caught. We'll see what happens after the IAEA visit.



I'm not seeing how that particular section indicates a violation of the treaty on the part of Iran.

Which clause do you feel Iran has violated?

Article III, § 1.:

Each non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty undertakes to accept safeguards, as set forth in an agreement to be negotiated and concluded with the International Atomic Energy Agency in accordance with the Statute of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Agencys safeguards system, for the exclusive purpose of verification of the fulfillment of its obligations assumed under this Treaty with a view to preventing diversion of nuclear energy from peaceful uses to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. Procedures for the safeguards required by this article shall be followed with respect to source or special fissionable material whether it is being produced, processed or used in any principal nuclear facility or is outside any such facility. The safeguards required by this article shall be applied to all source or special fissionable material in all peaceful nuclear activities within the territory of such State, under its jurisdiction, or carried out under its control anywhere.



That particular section says the IAEA safeguards will be used. The safeguards specifically outline inspections to confirm peaceful intentions. Building the facilities in secret and only inviiting IAEA in after being 'caught' is not compliace. Google IAEA if you want the specific safeguard policies.

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That particular section says the IAEA safeguards will be used. The safeguards specifically outline inspections to confirm peaceful intentions. Building the facilities in secret and only inviiting IAEA in after being 'caught' is not compliace. Google IAEA if you want the specific safeguard policies.



Perhaps you can identify the particular section(s) and paragraph(s) of Article XII: Agency Safeguards of the IAEA Statute of which Iran is in violation. The closest I am seeing is Section A, paragraph 1, of which Iran does not technically appear to be in violation.
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That particular section says the IAEA safeguards will be used. The safeguards specifically outline inspections to confirm peaceful intentions. Building the facilities in secret and only inviiting IAEA in after being 'caught' is not compliace. Google IAEA if you want the specific safeguard policies.



Perhaps you can identify the particular section(s) and paragraph(s) of Article XII: Agency Safeguards of the IAEA Statute of which Iran is in violation. The closest I am seeing is Section A, paragraph 1, of which Iran does not technically appear to be in violation.



Holy fuck dude... how much do I need to hold your hand through this. The IAEA safeguards specifically talk about inspections.

1. To examine the design of specialized equipment and facilities, including nuclear reactors, and to approve it only from the view- point of assuring that it will not further any military purpose, that it complies with applicable health and safety standards, and that it will permit effective application of the safeguards provided for in this article;

3. To require the maintenance and production of operating records to assist in ensuring accountability for source and special fissionable materials used or produced in the project or arrangement;

4. To call for and receive progress reports;

5. To approve the means to be used for the chemical processing of irradiated materials solely to ensure that this chemical processing will not lend itself to diversion of materials for military purposes

who shall have access at all times to all places and data and to any person who by reason of his occupation deals with materials, equipment, or facilities which are required by this Statute to be safeguarded,

Iran has not had any inspections or any accountability for their sites. October 25th is their scheduled IAEA visit and that was only organized after being 'caught.' As of now, they are not in compliance. Maybe after the IAEA visit it will change. I don't know how I could possibly be any more middle of the road on this.

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Iran has not had any inspections or any accountability for their sites. October 25th is their scheduled IAEA visit and that was only organized after being 'caught.' As of now, they are not in compliance. Maybe after the IAEA visit it will change. I don't know how I could possibly be any more middle of the road on this.



The time deadline is the part being questioned in this discussion. Perhaps you can point out the requirement of when Iran must submit their designs. Without a failure to meet a definitive time deadline, Iran appears to not be in violation of the NPT.
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Iran has not had any inspections or any accountability for their sites. October 25th is their scheduled IAEA visit and that was only organized after being 'caught.' As of now, they are not in compliance. Maybe after the IAEA visit it will change. I don't know how I could possibly be any more middle of the road on this.



The time deadline is the part being questioned in this discussion. Perhaps you can point out the requirement of when Iran must submit their designs. Without a failure to meet a definitive time deadline, Iran appears to not be in violation of the NPT.



There is no timeline. The statements about submitting plans 90 days prior, or whatever, were false.

On a related note:
The security safeguards talk about a constant flow of information and inspections. Hiding the facility does not comply with that. After October 25th it will be a different discussion. As of now, they are not in compliance since no flow of information was provided and obviously inspections haven't been going on since the site was hidden.

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There is no timeline. The statements about submitting plans 90 days prior, or whatever, were false.



So, no timeline would seem to indicate that they are not out of compliance, so long as they allow the inspections to begin on October 25, as scheduled.
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There is no timeline. The statements about submitting plans 90 days prior, or whatever, were false.



So, no timeline would seem to indicate that they are not out of compliance, so long as they allow the inspections to begin on October 25, as scheduled.



They were out of compliance by hiding it. They got caught and then scheduled the IAEA visit. If it goes well on October 25th then we can talk about being in compliance.

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They were out of compliance by hiding it. They got caught and then scheduled the IAEA visit. If it goes well on October 25th then we can talk about being in compliance.



For how long were they in operation while hidden?

Again, without specific time deadlines, there appears to technically be no violation of the NPT. Feel free to point out the specific time deadlines that implicate Iran as being in violation. So far, it looks like, although perhaps in violation of the spirit of the law, the letter of the law was followed.
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Yesterday afternoon I gave a talk on nuclear proliferation. Going into the Q&A period I’m thinking the first question is going to be on Iran’s program or DPRK or terrorism. No, the first question was on the MOP reprogramming docs stories. :o ... :D

Having looked at the primary documents, it made me look even better than I already did :D-[at myself] to be able to immediately reference the DD1145’s and cite the request was for only 16% over the already approved 2009 DoD budget.

Pretty cool, imo. If you hadn’t posted the story the first time & [SkyChimp] a week later, I may never have noticed. Thanks. :)
/Marg


Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

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Yesterday afternoon I gave a talk on nuclear proliferation. Going into the Q&A period I’m thinking the first question is going to be on Iran’s program or DPRK or terrorism. No, the first question was on the MOP reprogramming docs stories. :o ... :D

Having looked at the primary documents, it made me look even better than I already did :D-[at myself] to be able to immediately reference the DD1145’s and cite the request was for only 16% over the already approved 2009 DoD budget.

Pretty cool, imo. If you hadn’t posted the story the first time & [SkyChimp] a week later, I may never have noticed. Thanks. :)
/Marg



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