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Skyrad

Carrying a gun increases risk of getting shot and killed

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Okay, feel free to answer the question that no one else has answered: What constitutes intent to assault?



Menacing behavior.



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>>it goes against some people's stated beliefs that a gun will help
>>_prevent_ them from being shot in such a situation.

>How so?

If you are involved in an assault, and you have a gun, you are 5 times more likely to be shot than if you do not have a gun. That's the (narrow) conclusion of this study. As you (and others) have pointed out, it doesn't say anything _outside_ assaults, and there are many other ways to avoid them.



Actually I think the answer is pretty simple. Most criminals simply want to mug you/obtain your property with minimum of fuss and danger to themselves. So if you are unarmed you comply hand-over the goods and are left in peace. The instant you as the victim add a gun to the equation the criminal is now faced with potentially losing his life and therefore fight/flight takes over. Unfortunately criminals tend to have less regard for the wellbeing of others so the innocent person is further harmed. It goes to fairly fundamental principles of avoiding a fight de-escalate the situation where-ever possible, a gun doesn't tend to do that.



Sounds good in principle, but FBI stats don't agree. Nor does common sense of you think it through. Being at the mercy of someone who has no regard for your life is a bad place to be. They might kill you because of your attitude. Or because you don't comply fast enogh. Or because you move to fast trying to comply. Or because you don't have enough of value to satisfy them. Or because they think you'll be able to identify them. Or just because they feel like it.

Your chances of getting hurt are lower if you resist in any way (including running away) compared to complying and hoping the criminal won't hurt you.

And the most effective form of resistance is using a gun,

THIS is from the NRA, not the most independent source, but the best I could find fast.

The Kleck/Guertz studies are considered by many to be fairly independent. Most anti gunners don't try to argue against them, they just ignore them.
"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

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Good STARTING POINT for a real study



Indeed. But there have been MANY other studies [sic] that came to similar conclusions. I already cited one a few posts ago.

Here are some more:

www.upi.com/Health_News/2008/04/26/Gun_ownership_correlates_to_gun_deaths/UPI-65011209186884/

This is an "analysis by a U.S. non-profit group" (unidentified in this article) that simply compares statistics with gun ownership and CDC data from 2005. Not really a "real" study


www.gunguys.com/?p=2793

Gun guys . com?! This is an op-ed article discussed 3 anecdotal cases. Tragic cases... but not a "real" study

www.livescience.com/strangenews/070112_gun_crimes.html

This (like the first link) is simply a comparison of gun ownership statistics and CDC data from 2001. And... the link kinda devalues that as a "reliable" source... other "strange news" included The best approach for avoiding a zombie? It would have better defended your statement to actually have linked to the journal in Social Science and Medicine

www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hphr/social-health-hazards/guns-and-suicide/index.html

This is actually your most "powerful link." (kinda laughing to myself with that one.... "powerful link" - combining their conclusion with the internet lingo... ok, so I'm easily amused) But still it's actually only a "powerful link." Owning a gun is NOT the cause of suicide. However, having rapid access to a very irreversible tool.... will increase the success probability. But.... we could also do a study looking at tylenol- very available. (lets call all the households and ask how many have APAP in the medicine cabinet) combined with a very low toxicity threshold. (4gm - that's ONLY 8 of the extra strength tabs) But.... tylenol does NOT cause suicide.






Edited to add: if you really believe the statistics are flawed and the conclusions are incorrect, you have the credentials to write a rebuttal to the journal editors and have it printed. Why don't you do that?



partly because in this field, you don't want to be labeled as a "gun nut" and opposing said views, even when you can defend the statements, is a risky career move
partly because I actually WANT them to proceed with the further study and if they get caught in a pissing contest ... that might derail that.
partly due to a bit of an inferiority complex.... lil david trying to bring down the popular medical opinions.

But.... even with all of that.... I still might.

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Can you find any peer-reviewed articles presenting data showing a correlation between gun purchase/carrying/ownership and a reduction in gun fatalities?

Can you explain why the gun lobby worked so hard to prevent the CDCP from continuing its analysis of gun violence?
...

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partly because I actually WANT them to proceed with the further study and if they get caught in a pissing contest ... that might derail that.
partly due to a bit of an inferiority complex.... lil david trying to bring down the popular medical opinions.

But.... even with all of that.... I still might.



Good. You may recall that "popular medical opinion" was that bacteria couldn't produce peptic ulcers until a lone Dr in Oz (Barry Marshall) showed that they could and did, and "popular medical opinion" was that HRT was a good thing for older women until someone showed that it wasn't.
...

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An OPINION that starts out "I haven't seen the article but..." has meaning in this discussion? You don't really believe that, do you?



If that is the case then stating "I've seen the article and here's what I think" is meaningless unless stated only to those who HAVE see it.

When Dubya said we're going to war with Iraq because of a, people criticized it even though they had not read all of the underlying reports, nor had they received the intelligence briefings.

And rightfully so. The correlation as stated did not pass the smell test. Thus, comments from ignorance of the details are not necessarily inappropriate.


[Reply]You don't have any data, nor do I, nor does anyone else who posted in this thread. All we have are opinions about the data in the article and the conclusions drawn therefrom.



Right. And the study's authors and the publisher thought it significant enough to put out a press release.

[Reply]The ONLY opinion I've seen with any value to me has been yours.



I've added two words to reflect the subjective nature of your statement. I've found value in some things. But please do not consider yourself as the arbiter on what is and is not of value.

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But there have been MANY other studies that came to similar conclusions. I already cited one a few posts ago.



Sure. And I can show you simple confirmation that the angles of a triangle total 180 degrees. This is true under certain circumstances. You can then show me how the angles of a triangle can total more than 180 degrees - under other circumstances.

Peer review itself is not about putting in different variables. It is about replicating the circumstances and the results. N and p don't get changed.

Arguing these things is done for critique of the study. The unsophisticated don't argue in terms of n and p. They typically state them in terms of the real life samples utilized.


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An OPINION that starts out "I haven't seen the article but..." has meaning in this discussion? You don't really believe that, do you?


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But there have been MANY other studies that came to similar conclusions. I already cited one a few posts ago.



Sure. And I can show you simple confirmation that the angles of a triangle total 180 degrees. This is true under certain circumstances. You can then show me how the angles of a triangle can total more than 180 degrees - under other circumstances.



OK, show some contradictory results from a peer reviewed journal

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Peer review itself is not about putting in different variables. It is about replicating the circumstances and the results. N and p don't get changed.



Incorrect. Peer review is about ensuring the methodology is correct, that previous work in the area is accounted for, that the conclusions are supported by the results, etc. (I have been on the editorial boards of 2 peer reviewed journals and a reviewer for many more).

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Arguing these things is done for critique of the study. The unsophisticated don't argue in terms of n and p. They typically state them in terms of the real life samples utilized.



Anecdotal evidence is unable to say anything about statistics and probabilities. This IS a situation where sophisticated statistical analysis is the whole point.

Science is not lawyering.
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Can you find any peer-reviewed articles presenting data showing a correlation between gun purchase/carrying/ownership and a reduction in gun fatalities?



They are few and far between, but they are out there. Look up Lott and Mustard

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Can you explain why the gun lobby worked so hard to prevent the CDCP from continuing its analysis of gun violence?



because they're lobbyist.

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It goes to fairly fundamental principles of avoiding a fight de-escalate the situation where-ever possible, a gun doesn't tend to do that.



the gun doesn't do shit. The person carrying the gun may choose to use the gun to protect their wallet and watch. That's a poor decision.

if a mugger tells me to give him my wallet and watch and cell phone or whatever, then I give it to him. Even if I'm carrying my gun. It's stuff. It can be replaced.

Carrying the weapon doesn't increase your chances of getting shot, using it poorly or when you don't have to may increase your chances of getting shot.
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Rob

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[Good. You may recall that "popular medical opinion" was that bacteria couldn't produce peptic ulcers until a lone Dr in Oz (Barry Marshall) showed that they could and did, and "popular medical opinion" was that HRT was a good thing for older women until someone showed that it wasn't.



Medicine, as science, is not a majority rules situation.

... and anthropomorphic climate change is held as true by "popular scientific opinion".
--
Rob

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>How about being listed on their web site as part of their "core team"?

What does that mean?



If you follow the link, you will see that it is an "Anti-Violence" group with a pretty strong bias against guns.

The home page has a graph showing the difference in assaults on police in carry permit "may issue" vs "shall issue" states.

Guess which one is higher?

I fail to see the correlation, especially when the permit holders (everywhere) have been shown to have a significantly lower rate of arrest or conviction (for all offenses) than the population as a whole.



Seem to me that EVERY person in this thread who criticizes the article has (a) a strong pro-gun bias, and (b) with the exception of Dr. Bordson, no expertise in statistical analysis.




(A) The people with the strong pro-gun bias are the only ones who take the time and effort to argue these things. Do you spend much time arguing things you don't care about?

(B) I don't have any more expertise in statistics than I do in research.
I am not arguing against the statistics they are using. (hell, I only understood about half of it anyway).

I am arguing against the basic premise of the study. That whether or not a shooting victim has a gun has any correlation to how dangerous it is to carry a gun. Especially when you look at the numbers on shooting victims (2/3 have criminal records, 1/4 are involved in criminal activity at the time.)

They didn't take into account how many people are armed and not shot, yet claim it is dangerous to carry a gun.

I am also questioning their bias against guns overall.
They (as I mentioned in a previous post that is quoted above) try to compare carry permit types (shall vs may issue) with police assault rates.
Without any mention of how many assaults are commited by permit holders, what does it have to do with the assault rate?
"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

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Menacing behavior.



Could you be any more vague? What makes behavior menacing without making it assault? Incidentally, if the "menacing" behavior doesn't qualify as assault, pulling and brandishing a firearm will in most US jurisdictions.
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What makes behavior menacing...



v. men·aced, men·ac·ing, men·ac·es
v.tr.
1. To utter threats against.
2. To constitute a threat to; endanger.

Clearly, it's a judgment call on the part of the individual.



Using that definition, menacing behavior would constitute assault, not merely intent to assault.
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the legal definition of assault varies based on state law. Typically it's that there was a threat that was believable that it would be followed through. So yes, menacing behavior, when believable that the threats would be acted upon, would be assault. since assault is typically based on intent, I don't understand the use of the phrase "intent to assault". Isn't it a little like "PIN number" (man, that's annoying)
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Rob

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Let's make a distinction between assault and battery. Uttering verbal threats is defined as assault in New York state. Physically striking someone is battery.



I've been making that distinction all along.
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the legal definition of assault varies based on state law. Typically it's that there was a threat that was believable that it would be followed through. So yes, menacing behavior, when believable that the threats would be acted upon, would be assault. since assault is typically based on intent, I don't understand the use of the phrase "intent to assault". Isn't it a little like "PIN number" (man, that's annoying)



That's exactly my point. Someone claimed that they would pull their gun when the recognized someone had an intent to assault, and I've been trying to figure out what they meant by that particular phrase.
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That's exactly my point. Someone claimed that they would pull their gun when the recognized someone had an intent to assault, and I've been trying to figure out what they meant by that particular phrase.



I see your point. I've been reading "intent to assault" as menacing behavior. IMO, menacing behavior extends beyond verbal threats. It becomes a judgment call.
We are all engines of karma

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the legal definition of assault varies based on state law. Typically it's that there was a threat that was believable that it would be followed through. So yes, menacing behavior, when believable that the threats would be acted upon, would be assault. since assault is typically based on intent, I don't understand the use of the phrase "intent to assault". Isn't it a little like "PIN number" (man, that's annoying)



That's exactly my point. Someone claimed that they would pull their gun when the recognized someone had an intent to assault, and I've been trying to figure out what they meant by that particular phrase.



Ok, I think I am that "someone". Personally I will not point a gun at anyone until I can establish all 5 of the "points" I described in a previous post.

And to clarify a bit, I was talking theoretically about the difference (and there are many very subtle differences) between "assault" and "self-defense" when brandishing a gun.

And I did say (maybe not clearly enough) that brandishing a gun, even in self defense will very often got one arrested. And perhaps charged and convicted of assault with a deadly weapon.

Which is why I also said (and all this is across a bunch of different posts) that carrying a gun is a huge responsibilty and carries certain risks.
I think that it should be up to the individual (if they are qualified) to make that decision for themselves.

The folks that did this study seem (to me at least) to be in the group that wishes to take that option away from me and everyone else.
"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

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Can you explain why the gun lobby worked so hard to prevent the CDCP from continuing its analysis of gun violence?



Because increases or decreases in rates of violence or suicide are totally irrelevant to the purpose of the 2nd Amendment?
-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
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if a mugger tells me to give him my wallet and watch and cell phone or whatever, then I give it to him. Even if I'm carrying my gun. It's stuff. It can be replaced.



Which is exactly the point.

Every single day, virtually everywhere I go, I take with me the two most valuable things in my world. If someone tries to take them, you can damn well bet there's going to be a physical altercation. If producing a gun means I increase my chances of being shot in that altercation, but also increases my chances of defending them, then I'm going to be using a gun. I'm willing to get shot in that cause.
-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

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>I'm willing to get shot in that cause.

I guess the question is - are you willing to have them shot, and will carrying a gun make that more or less likely? I don't think there have been any studies done on such a topic, but I also don't think the answer is a slam dunk.

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>Because increases or decreases in rates of violence or suicide are totally
>irrelevant to the purpose of the 2nd Amendment?

Can you explain why that would be justification for second amendment supporters to try to shut down such research? I mean, if it's irrelevant, why didn't they try to shut down global warming or cancer research instead?

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Ok, I think I am that "someone".



Perhaps so, but I'm not really sure. I've tried to address the posts, not the posters. My use of the word someone is indicative of me being too lazy to go back through the thread to see who first used the phrase.

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And I did say (maybe not clearly enough) that brandishing a gun, even in self defense will very often got one arrested. And perhaps charged and convicted of assault with a deadly weapon.



You did say that, and I agree. That's actually one of the primary reasons I choose not to carry a gun for self defense despite being a gun owner.

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Which is why I also said (and all this is across a bunch of different posts) that carrying a gun is a huge responsibilty and carries certain risks.



Also agreed.

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I think that it should be up to the individual (if they are qualified) to make that decision for themselves.



Ideally, yes, I agree. Pragmatically, I've seen way too many people who believe that carrying a gun will have some magical protective effect that makes them invincible to think that every individual is capable of making a good decision w/r/t carrying.

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The folks that did this study seem (to me at least) to be in the group that wishes to take that option away from me and everyone else.



I didn't get that impression about the authors.
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