Scientists pull an about face on global warming

[TankBuster 0]

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Thanks for the read. Global cooling is back. Maybe Al Gore can switch his stance and get people to buy into more of his BS!

Noooowah! Algore is doing a great job! He has actually CAUSED this cooling trend by all of his hard work. I say, pay him a little more money, stop the cap and trade bill, problem solved.

The forecast is mostly sunny with occasional beer.

[lawrocket 3]

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The dominant forcing function for global climate models is the heat balance from basic thermodynamics. That is very well understood as well. Air resistance on my apple and secondary climitalogical effects are lower order inputs.

Of course, and I get that the processes and underlying physics are not invalidated.

However, a model is still a prediction. Close is nice, but we are proposing making vast societal trades on the basis of these predictions.

Furthermore, dominant forcings are subject to change. My initial conclusion is what was previously stated - that CO2 forcings increase at a lesser rate as the concentration increases. Thus, while not checking the underlying data, the generally linear trends seen in the models indicate that there must be an assumed exponential increase in CO2.

About 5 billion metric tons of CO2 were emitted globally in 1952. By about 1986 (40 years) there was an exponential increase - 20 billion metric tons of CO2. That's 400%. It has increased about 5 billion tons to about 25 billion by now. The rate of increase is stabilizing.

This does not support the linear-type increases in CO2 forcing. In fact, looking back at CO2 forcings would support the high increase. Looking forward from, say, 2002, would necessitate there being 60-80 billions tons of years CO2 outpute by 2035.

These exponential increases in CO2 emissions are not being seen. Methane emissions are dropping. Hence, additional forcings from them are dropping.

Assuming that CO2 is increasing exponentially and will do so for the next 100 years, testing the models in hindsight would be a good approach. But it is yet another assumption to consider.

These are the flaws inherent in prediction. But at least from you I'm getting the sense that short-term observations do matter. Others on here have suggested that anything under 30-40 years is irrelevant.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[bodypilot90 0]

you mean like this?

http://www.junkscience.com/mar06/Time_AnotherIceAge_June241974.pdf

[tkhayes 348]

I read his report - and you are right - he is claiming that the oceans (or part of them are 'cooling'. Based on that, his assumptions may be correct.

HOWEVER - not too many scientists agree with his original claim that the oceans are 'cooling'.

garbage in-garbage out.

If I claim that only gay people have AIDS, then I can claim, based on that fact, that AIDS is only a 'gay problem'. But if the original premise is flawed, then my argument don't mean shit -

[lawrocket 3]

What's interesting is that this comes on the heels of the British Met's prediction last month that three of the next six years will exceed the record of 1998 as the hottest year. This is the same British Met that predicted in summer of 2002 that it would be the hottest year - despite that fact that it had already been abnormally cool and would require that the next few months be the hottest ever. They were wrong - not even close.

They made this prediction 18 months ago, too, forecasting half the years between 2009 and 2014 to break the 1998 record.

A run down of some their press releases:

Jan 4, 2007 - "2007 forecast to be warmest yet." To a 60% probability.
August 10, 2007 - Over the 10-year period as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 °C warmer than 2004. At least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record (between 2004 and 2014). Well, they are 5 years in an not lookng so hot (pun intended).
Jan 3, 2008 - projected 2008 to be coolest since 2000. (hey! They got one right!)
Etc.

As far as the oceans go, there is evidence to suggest a lag of perhaps 30 years with regard to ocean mixing. There could be evidence of "cooling" that is cyclical - like the ENSO. But there is not much known about the ocean temperatures below 3k meters.

There is debate. But it's because so much is unanswered.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[NTBeck 0]

If you are still researching the topic try this link

http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/

[rehmwa 2]

won't someone PLEASE think of the children

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Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants