1969912 0 #1 August 12, 2009 Is the recession over or nearly over? Some news sources say it is. If so, is it wise or even possible to scale down or eliminate the infusion of borrowed money (TARP, etc) that was committed for the express purpose of limiting/mitigating the recession? "Once we got to the point where twenty/something's needed a place on the corner that changed the oil in their cars we were doomed . . ." -NickDG Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RonD1120 62 #2 August 12, 2009 QuoteIs the recession over or nearly over? Some news sources say it is. If so, is it wise or even possible to scale down or eliminate the infusion of borrowed money (TARP, etc) that was committed for the express purpose of limiting/mitigating the recession? One or more of the following may apply: Quote http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/laws.htm Parkinson's Laws 1) Work expands to fill the time available for its completion; the thing to be done swells in perceived importance and complexity in a direct ratio with the time to be spent in its completion. 2) Expenditures rise to meet income. 3) Expansion means complexity; and complexity decay. 4) The number of people in any working group tends to increase regardless of the amount of work to be done. 5) If there is a way to delay an important decision the good bureaucracy, public or private, will find it. 6) The progress of science is inversely proportional to the number of journals published. Maier's Law If the facts don't conform to the theory, they must be disposed of. Corollaries: 1) The bigger the theory, the better. 2) The experiment may be considered a success if no more than 50% of the observed measurements must be discarded to obtain a correspondence with the theory.Look for the shiny things of God revealed by the Holy Spirit. They only last for an instant but it is a Holy Instant. Let your soul absorb them. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1969912 0 #3 August 12, 2009 Yep. The money will all get spent, recession or not. "Once we got to the point where twenty/something's needed a place on the corner that changed the oil in their cars we were doomed . . ." -NickDG Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Butters 0 #4 August 12, 2009 QuoteIf so, is it wise or even possible to scale down or eliminate the infusion of borrowed money (TARP, etc) that was committed for the express purpose of limiting/mitigating the recession? Do you really believe the express purpose of all the borrowed money was limiting/mitigating the recession? Quote"Never let a serious crisis go to waste." Rahm Emanuel"That looks dangerous." Leopold Stotch Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
riddler 0 #5 August 12, 2009 The recovery may last longer than the recession, and just as many people will suffer. Being a pessimist, I see the Shit Sandwich as half-eaten, not half-finished.Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,176 #6 August 12, 2009 >Is the recession over or nearly over? Some news sources say it is. Not even close, although we may have hit the bottom. >If so, is it wise or even possible to scale down or eliminate the infusion >of borrowed money (TARP, etc) that was committed for the express purpose of >limiting/mitigating the recession? Absolutely, and that should happen automatically as there are fewer and fewer "troubled assets" to purchase. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gary73 10 #7 August 12, 2009 The recession isn't over by any means, but the recovery has definitely begun. The stock market is up 25% since it hit bottom, housing starts are up, new-car sales are up, etc., so there's good reason to be optimistic. As for the long-term effects, that's going to be a problem. Ever since the 1930s, Congress has never seen a tax dollar that it didn't want to spend - twice! Government spending is so far out of control that it's bound to cause a major trauma eventually. The only question is when. "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." - Carl Sagan Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1969912 0 #8 August 12, 2009 QuoteQuoteIf so, is it wise or even possible to scale down or eliminate the infusion of borrowed money (TARP, etc) that was committed for the express purpose of limiting/mitigating the recession? Do you really believe the express purpose of all the borrowed money was limiting/mitigating the recession? Quote"Never let a serious crisis go to waste." Rahm Emanuel No. "Once we got to the point where twenty/something's needed a place on the corner that changed the oil in their cars we were doomed . . ." -NickDG Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
headoverheels 334 #9 August 12, 2009 Quote Being a pessimist, I see the Shit Sandwich as half-eaten, not half-finished. Life is a shit sandwich -- if you have more bread, you eat less shit. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
justinb138 0 #10 August 13, 2009 QuoteThe recession isn't over by any means, but the recovery has definitely begun. I'm going to disagree with you there. Personally, I think we haven't seen anything yet. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Remster 30 #11 August 13, 2009 QuoteI think we haven't seen anything yet. I disagree. I think we're at or close to the bottom. The indicators are mixed so right now, from sales, to UI, to foreclosures, to trade deficit, to commodities, to interest rates, that it should indicate that things are, overall, be leveling out. Now, that doesnt mean things are rosy. There may still be some contraction carrying on, but I think that the numbers that will come up next year will show that the end if the recession (ie the end of the contraction) occurred in Q3. The US will probably be at a close to zero growth for a while after that(1 or 2 Q) before getting back into growth. But, thats just my opinion!Remster Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
marks2065 0 #12 August 13, 2009 QuoteQuoteI think we haven't seen anything yet. I disagree. I think we're at or close to the bottom. The indicators are mixed so right now, from sales, to UI, to foreclosures, to trade deficit, to commodities, to interest rates, that it should indicate that things are, overall, be leveling out. Now, that doesnt mean things are rosy. There may still be some contraction carrying on, but I think that the numbers that will come up next year will show that the end if the recession (ie the end of the contraction) occurred in Q3. The US will probably be at a close to zero growth for a while after that(1 or 2 Q) before getting back into growth. But, thats just my opinion! Quotethe next round of housing problems is just getting started. The arms and layoffs will generate a new and continued housing issue that will last at least 2 more years Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Remster 30 #13 August 13, 2009 So what is your opinion? That the housing market is the only driver you need to consider to predict economic growth?Remster Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,231 #14 August 13, 2009 QuoteQuoteQuoteI think we haven't seen anything yet. I disagree. I think we're at or close to the bottom. The indicators are mixed so right now, from sales, to UI, to foreclosures, to trade deficit, to commodities, to interest rates, that it should indicate that things are, overall, be leveling out. Now, that doesnt mean things are rosy. There may still be some contraction carrying on, but I think that the numbers that will come up next year will show that the end if the recession (ie the end of the contraction) occurred in Q3. The US will probably be at a close to zero growth for a while after that(1 or 2 Q) before getting back into growth. But, thats just my opinion! Quotethe next round of housing problems is just getting started. The arms and layoffs will generate a new and continued housing issue that will last at least 2 more years Must be why bank stocks are up 80% so far this year. Stupid investors!... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #15 August 13, 2009 QuoteSo what is your opinion? That the housing market is the only driver you need to consider to predict economic growth? It's pretty significant in how substantial the growth will be. The post dotcom recovery was fueled in large part by homeowners using their houses as ATM machines. Equity loans and refinancing was cheap. Cashout refi's dominated. That won't happen this time. so while it may well be true that we're at the bottom and arc'ing upward, how steep will the slope be? The most negative (Deutsche Bank) believe that half of the home loans in America will be underwater within 2 years. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,176 #16 August 13, 2009 >The post dotcom recovery was fueled in large part by homeowners >using their houses as ATM machines. Equity loans and refinancing was >cheap. Cashout refi's dominated. That won't happen this time. Right. This time it may be a new kind of junk bond, or the next tech bubble, or even tulip futures. (Yes, that's happened before!) Just as everyone around 2005 was gun-shy when it came to Internet startups but not housing, the next generation of investors will be gun-shy when it comes to housing but not when it comes to X, X being the "next big thing." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
marks2065 0 #17 August 13, 2009 housing may have leveled off but that doesn't mean the problems are over. forclosures were up in july and will continue to stay high for a long period of time. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #18 August 13, 2009 Quote the next generation of investors will be gun-shy when it comes to housing but not when it comes to X, X being the "next big thing." investors always find a new hole. But consumers are a different matter. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
