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nerdgirl

Ralph Peters: ignore COIN theory and pull out of Afghanistan

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92 % of Afghans surveyed support girls’ education, 91% support enfranchisement of women, 77% support women working outside the home, and 69% support women holding government office … although 77% support women wearing the burka (p. 34 data tables).



Somehow, I doubt that polling is a good method of guaging public opinion in Afghanistan. If you're not in the city, then you're not going to be part of any poll, most of the rural farmers don't have telephones. And even in third-world countries, the people in cities are far more liberal than those in the country. I'm willing to bet for every person in the city that was actually polled, there are at least a few folks in the country with far more traditional values.
Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD

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Somehow, I doubt that polling is a good method of guaging public opinion in Afghanistan.



Okay, with what part of the method employed do you take issue with and why?

Do you have a better method for getting empirical data to gauge Afghan opinion?

There are other methods: trust the government (theirs and ours), historical extrapolation (which era? 1965, 1985, 1995?), query regional and cultural experts (e.g., anthropologists and other social scientists), ask returning ISAF soldiers and Marines, signals intelligence, magic 8-ball? Which of those is a better/more robust method in your opinion & why?



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If you're not in the city, then you're not going to be part of any poll, most of the rural farmers don't have telephones.


If the methodology was phone calls in urban areas, I would agree with you.

If that is the basis of your opinion stated above, then the conclusion you state above is invalid. (It's roughly akin to stating that a low-initiated hook turn death was due to bag lock.)

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

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The other thing about the Swat valley is that it has many Emerald mines. The largest Emerald ever found was found when I was there back in the 80's. No doubt this is one reson that the Taliban siezed the area, good for the funds.
When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

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-- Pursue application of COIN theory



A Frank Kitson, Liddell Hart fan, my kind of girl.;)
When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

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