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rhys

Why does a shit economy support such a strong dollar?

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I have been watching the currency exchange rates quite intently as I will be moving between 3 countries with various expenses soon.

Through the doom and gloom and the financial crisis, the US dollar has regained more strength than any, and it is the US economy that tiggered the collapses.

Before the Aus$ was $0.98 - US$1, now it is only $0.65- $1.

My guess is the guys that own all the money in the world have snavelled it all and are keeping it in US$, they control the finacial rates and we suffer due to thier greed.

But I am a paranoid delusionalist arent I!

:D
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

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I have wondered about that too. The Aussie economy is better off than the US with no deficit and now we are worth 65 cents to the US dollar. Makes buying porn dvds from the USA expensive
I tend to be a bit different. enjoyed my time in the sport or is it an industry these days ??

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Seriously I have been told alot of the US dollars have moved from Aust back home. Also as China is slowing down we will not be selling so much minerals to them which badly hurts us. A few economists I know say a fair price for the Aussie is around 78 cents to the US dollar

Also our interests rates were higher when you could get 98 cents to the US dollar. USA investors parked their money here to take advantage of the higher interest rates but not anymore. Our economy does well at around that level (78 cents) and tourists can wear that but not 64 cents in the dollar.
I tend to be a bit different. enjoyed my time in the sport or is it an industry these days ??

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OPEC sell oil in $$.

Want to buy oil - gotta buy $$ first.

One of the conspiracy theories re the invasion of Iraq and the cooling of relations between the US and Venezuela is that both countries switched to selling their oil in Euros. It one of those tinfoil hat conspiracy theories that actually has a little nugget of logic behind it, (not to say I buy into it of course).

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Quote

problem seems to be with Australia - the dollar didn't move nearly so violently against the other currencies.

And part of the apparent strength of the others early in 2008 was an overselling of the USD.



I picked these graphs off of x-rates.com...although the one currency that is setting new strength records against the dollar is the Yen. Otherwise, the trends seem to be the same across the major currencies.

The "spike" of dollar weakness appears to coincide with the end of the year, following the Feds infusion of $8Tr+ into the whole system. All those dollars were apparently bought. I don't see how that would be sustainable in the long term though.

Eventually, the US must find a way to pay off a chunk of this debt. US debt alone (all factors considered) is likely worth the same, or possibly more than the value of entire world GDP.

The world economy is built off of the US being a nation of consumers. Since the global economics have taken hold, specifically over the past 10 years, we are all learning that this model is not fully sustainable as long as the US spends with reckless abandon on crap outside its Constitutional mandate.
So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

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The trend is very similar, but the magnitude is not. The AUS lost 33% in that initial decline (.91 to .61) while the euro decline about 20% (1.55 to 1.23).

I couldn't find a site that would do multiple currencies so they could be seen on the same scale. Your site, like most, sets the Y axis for the range of values, rather than truly proportional to 0.

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also the australian graph start from when the AUS$ was above US$0.90 which is abnormally high.

US$0.75 is normal so the decline looks more dramatic on that graph than in reality.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

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Where does Aussies wealth come from? As far as I can tell their main exports are commodities, which are falling like a stone.
Canada is in a similar position. We have run 13 consecutive federal surpluses, none of our banks are in trouble, we do not have a sub-prime mortgage issue. Our dollar has gone from US$1.10 to $0.79 in the last 14 months. C'est la vie.

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