How the "campaign suspension" has impacted the polls

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

From the best source in polling
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Quote

Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, containing the first full day of sampling since John McCain's pseudo-suspension -- and Barack Obama is extending his lead:

• Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, the candidates were tied 46%-46%.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to an Obama lead yesterday of 49%-46%.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 47%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-43%.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 48.9%-44.5%, almost double his margin from yesterday's 47.7%-45.3%.

Since John McCain began his quasi-suspension to deal with the economic crisis, we've had one new day of data for these three-day tracking polls. And that day doesn't appear to have treated him well.

Insert normal caveats about daily tracking etc here with the added knowledge that patterns are being established which seem to be holding.

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