Most important foreign policy challenges facing the US in 10 years

[nerdgirl 0]

What do think will emerge or continue as the three most important foreign policy issues the United States will face over the next 10 years?

And again, for correlative (rough) demographics, the last 4 options: for US citizens or legal residents, what political party do you find your views most closely align with? Or are you a non-US citizen or legal US resident?

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[BikerBabe 0]

very similar to the answers in my other poll:

Global climate change, population growth, and resource scarcity.

Population growth is the single #1 issue that is most overlooked, unfortunately. It effects so many of the others, and is the direct cause of many of them, as well.

Never meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!

[Amazon 7]

I still say.. and I should have put it at the top of my list... more americans need to grow the fuck up.

[nerdgirl 0]

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What do think will emerge or continue as the three most important foreign policy issues the United States will face over the next 10 years?

Resource Scarcity
Global Population Growth
Iran

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

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very similar to the answers in my other poll:

Global climate change, population growth, and resource scarcity.

Population growth is the single #1 issue that is most overlooked, unfortunately. It effects so many of the others, and is the direct cause of many of them, as well.

Concur w/r/t the impact -- too often underestimated or ignored or treated as a proverbial third rail, im-ever-ho -- of population growth and commensurate demand for resources.

China is doing it wrong, imo. How does one address population growth 'right'? Someone [credit Jeanne, iirc; apologies if not] suggested ending tax incentitives for more than 2 children as one step. That could impact the US. Altho' our population growth is mainly due to immigrants; in some European countries, e.g., Italy, the population trend is negative.

Outside of the US, western Europe, Russia, and Japan, there are youth bulges:

"Developing countries bear the brunt of rapid population growth, and are currently facing the largest ever youth cohort in history—1.3 billion people between the ages of 12 and 24. ... In countries where youth make up 35 percent of the total adult population, the risk of conflict, with all other factors being equal, increases by 150 percent compared to countries where youth make up only 17 percent of the adult population, as in most developed countries. In 2000, youth made up 35 percent or more of the adult population in 44 countries, including many in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia."

One of the So What? Who Cares? factors -- & tieing into our threads on humantarian objectives for military intervention -- the US military & allied militaries are likely to be called or may act on a moral imperative (Wilsonian) to intervene.

We've already seen the stand-up of US AFRICOM in Oct07.

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) does a great series, also im-ever-ho, on Mapping the Global Future, with some fantastic data & discussions on how demographics impact resource issues and how they impact US national security. There have been 4 iterations released thus far (2010, 2015, 2020, 2025) and the 2030 work is being completed. The hardest part in my experience is getting over the 'tyranny onthe inbox' and past the demands of the immediate budget cycle/news cycle.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[FreeflyChile 0]

Isn't China basically facing a situation where their country will be full of guys and a drastically lower amount of women? From my *very* limited knowledge of what goes on over there, there are rules that only allow you 1 child (or strongly discourage more than 1 child) and thus people try to have a son and not a daughter (and when its found out that it may be a daughter, the pregnancy is 'dealt with').

Will this really help things as far as population control? I just imagine that a lot of people probably go to other countries nearby to find women.

[nerdgirl 0]

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Isn't China basically facing a situation where their country will be full of guys and a drastically lower amount of women? From my *very* limited knowledge of what goes on over there, there are rules that only allow you 1 child (or strongly discourage more than 1 child) and thus people try to have a son and not a daughter (and when its found out that it may be a daughter, the pregnancy is 'dealt with').

Yes, and that one reason why "China is doing it wrong."

In 2008 sex imbalance (or sex ratio at birth [SRB]) ranged from 108:100 to 130:100 (the higher numbers in places like Guandong province, SW China). And the imbalance is increasing at a higher rate than expected; initial expectations were that the 120:100 (or 1.20 SRB) would not be reached until 2025. India has an SRB of 1.07. Average "natural" SRB values are typically 1.03-1.04.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[FreeflyChile 0]

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Isn't China basically facing a situation where their country will be full of guys and a drastically lower amount of women? From my *very* limited knowledge of what goes on over there, there are rules that only allow you 1 child (or strongly discourage more than 1 child) and thus people try to have a son and not a daughter (and when its found out that it may be a daughter, the pregnancy is 'dealt with').

Yes, and that one reason why "China is doing it wrong."

In 2008 sex imbalance (or sex ratio at birth [SRB]) ranged from 108:100 to 130:100 (the higher numbers in places like Guandong province, SW China). And the imbalance is increasing at a higher rate than expected; initial expectations were that the 120:100 (or 1.20 SRB) would not be reached until 2025. India has an SRB of 1.07. Average "natural" SRB values are typically 1.03-1.04.

VR/Marg

Interesting. I guess I don't know what I was expecting...I think I was picturing the University of Illinois college of engineering writ large in terms of gender balance

In any case, do you think that this will lead to a dramatic increase in homosexuality? I can't imagine that their govt or society looks too kindly on it.

[nerdgirl 0]

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Interesting. I guess I don't know what I was expecting...I think I was picturing the University of Illinois college of engineering writ large in terms of gender balance

I don't recall the specific ratios there, but it won't be quite that large, iirc.

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In any case, do you think that this will lead to a dramatic increase in homosexuality? I can't imagine that their govt or society looks too kindly on it.

The impact of China's sex imbalance is largely speculative at this point. The most common concern is that SRB will lead to increased levels of violence with possible threats to state stability and security. Rise in the sex industry (prostitution) is expected, along with increases in violent coercion and trafficking. Not aware of any speculations of rise in homosexuality. Would not be surprised … just not aware of any.

It is important to recognize that the cause of the sex imabalance problem(s) isn’t China’s one-child policy per se: the cause of the problem is the preference for sons & lack of value for daughters.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying