0
nerdgirl

Russian General on US-Polish Missile Defense Deal: "cannot go unpunished"

Recommended Posts

Quote

Why would anyone object to a country having a missile defense system? What threat does that pose to other nations? Doesn't every nation have a right to their own defense?



That’s a reasonable question: [I]why would anyone be opposed to something that is purely defensive?[/I]

Missile defense (nee ballistic missile defense, nee Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), including but not limited to “Star Wars”) is *not unambiguously defensive.* That’s the main reason that states like Russia oppose it.

If a state is disinclined to trust the other state’s intentions or stated goals, it looks a lot/exactly like a very sophisticated offensive system.

Missile defense is an active defense system. It’s categorized as active defense by the DoD: “active defense protects against theater missiles by destroying them in flight.” In order to be defensive, missile defense has an offensive or active component that is supposed to interact with an incoming missile. The type of interaction can vary from Aegis missiles that shot down USA 193 (the spy satellite last spring) to the oxygen-iodine laser (COIL) of the Airborne Laser on an unbalanced 747-400.

This is opposed to passive defense, such as personal protective equipment, e.g., MOPP suits and M40 “gas” masks or vaccines against a biological weapon. One can envision passive defense types of missile defense systems (think: giant force field) but such capabilities are more science fantasy to the realm of DARPA than technically feasible today.

Attached is an image from the DoD’s MDA “Basics” website. Compare the image, particularly that on the right of the launching missiles (interceptors) to images from a 2006 Iranian test of Shahab-3 (& other) missiles. They look alike. Visually and on radar. Because at the most fundamental level, they are alike (e.g., the physics and the materials). The payloads are (supposed to be) different – high explosives vs kinetic heavy shaped mass w/lots of electronics (exoatmospheric kill vehicle (EKV) or “hit-to-kill vehicle”; image attached). Payload is sometime difficult to tell from a distance, sometimes not. The intention is the key difference.

W/r/t Russia’s specific concerns about the US-Polish deal:
The US has proposed locating 10 interceptor sites in Poland, i.e., ten different spots within Poland at which multiple silo-based long-range interceptor missiles will be housed. (Imagine Russia made a deal with Cuba to place 10 ground based long-ranged missiles in Cuba … )

The US missile defense program is defensive. I may know that, you may know that, SecDef Gates may know that … but frankly (& this may sound counter-intuitive), from a security perspective that’s as important as what Russia or China or even Iran think. They can’t tell. If they can’t tell they’re inclined to hedge to protect their interests. Hedging can escalate. Escalation -- especially given the problems of Russia's early warning system -- can lead to conflict.

That doesn’t mean that what Russia or China or Iran thinks is ‘all-important’; at the same time, it would be arrogant to not recognize that geo-politically it does impact whether they are more or less inclined to trust us or to act openly or covertly to develop their own countermeasures. One countermeasure of theirs could be pre-emptive attack to eliminate the threat of a perceived highly sophisticated offensive missile system. The ambiguous nature of missile defense as offensive/defensive is the problem from Russia’s perspective ... or China, when one starts talking about missile defense sites in Japan.

There are parallels to Iran’s claimed peaceful civilian nuclear program. Because they have acted covertly, I’m inclined to judge that their stated intentions for civilian nuclear power are not totally transparent or true.

I wanted to respond precisely to your question about why a state like Russia would be opposed to missile defense.

There are other reasons to oppose missile defense, imo; a few of which I briefly outlined here. Most critical, imo, is that missile defense does nothing to defend against a smuggled nuclear weapon or improvised nuclear device (IND) – (NB: an IND is different than an RDD/'dirty bomb') – being brought into or used against the US or an ally.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

I checked the original Interfax article here (in Russian). It seems to be the only article, and here's the direct translation:



Thanks for the reference to the primary document and the translation.

It's my understanding that there were 2 statements at different occasions. Have you found a copy/link to the other one?

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Not that it matters that much, Liberals disarmed themselves a long time ago, but just thought you'd be interested to know the ever growing hatred coming from your northern borders. :S



Interesting observations.
Do you see any (qualitative or quantitative) indication that such perceptions are impacting economic, trade, or military interactions between the two states?
Or are the folks with such perceptions not in positions to impact US-Canada relations directly?

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Should we abandon our friends and allies in order to keep from pissing-off Russia?



No. Maintaining security guarantees and other US committments (including to international bilateral and multilateral agreements/treaties) is very important.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Not that it matters that much, Liberals disarmed themselves a long time ago, but just thought you'd be interested to know the ever growing hatred coming from your northern borders. :S



Interesting observations.
Do you see any (qualitative or quantitative) indication that such perceptions are impacting economic, trade, or military interactions between the two states?
Or are the folks with such perceptions not in positions to impact US-Canada relations directly?

VR/Marg

The underlying anti-US resentment is a constantly waxing/waning dynamic in our relationship that has been present since the revolutionary war. The Pork and Beans war, the War of 1812, the Pig war, the Alaska Boundary dispute, the San Juan crisis, "54-40' or fight"; all these have had an effect upon our collective conciousness. The lumber tariffs of the last ten years has caused a lot more resentment than most Americans realize. Whenever a Canadian dies in Afghanistan there is a real feeling of "What the fuck are those idiots doing in Iraq? Why haven't we mopped up the real war yet?"
As far as having any real effect, when Bush met with PM Paul Martin in 2005 he surprised the pundits by bringing up missile defense in his speech. Apparently after that, when Martin explained to him that the Canadian population was having none of it, Bush was incredulous that, "So even if you tell them it is good for them they are still going to be against it?"
Economically speaking you would have to look at cross-border tourism numbers over the last ten years. I know several people that say they won't go but that is more to do with the hassle at the border than sentiment. I have not looked at the numbers.
There is some sentiment to hurry the pipeline to the coast so we do not have to sell all our oil to the US, but the decision makers in the oil patch are all multi-nationals so local sentiment is of little import.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Do you see any (qualitative or quantitative) indication that such perceptions are impacting economic, trade, or military interactions between the two states?
Or are the folks with such perceptions not in positions to impact US-Canada relations directly?



The vocal "I hate America" people here in Canuckistan are NOT the politicians and are NOT the business leaders and I do believe the silent majority still supports you guys. These "I hate America" people are your stereo-typical socialists who would much rather align themselves with anyone but America. The worrisome part of Canada is our "no questions asked" immigration policy. We have opened our doors to some people who should not be here. If you let enough [insert your favorite nationality here] people into your country, sooner or later the public opinion changes to that of the new comers and when the new comers hate your neighbour, sooner or later you (by proxy) are deemed as someone who also hates your neighbour.

I think there are problems in both countries (not to mention problems all across the globe) and Amerca would do themselves and the world better if you guys became a little less militaristic and listen to what other people around the world have to say. But when push comes to shove, people like me will be supporting you guys over what the Russians and/or Radical Islamists may be up to.


Try not to worry about the things you have no control over

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Bloody Poland again?

No one is going to there aide the US is using them for thier own self intrest of the missle shield.



Poland is getting a lot ($$$, materials, technical assistance) out of the deal.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I believe Bill asked the best question.

What would we do if a country set up a missile system in Mexico?

I find it amusing that we are surprised at a country reaction when ours would be the same or much harsher.
The reason we are hated is seen in every international topic we discuss. We are hypocrites.


Who are we to tell Russia anything? I mean really can any one in the US hold a straight face and tell Russia they have no right to invade a country?


I don’t think it was hot air I think it was a statement of fact. When you become the first line of defense you become a target period that’s just fact.
I'd rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not." - Kurt Cobain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


Thanks for the reference to the primary document and the translation.
It's my understanding that there were 2 statements at different occasions. Have you found a copy/link to the other one?



No, I didn't. I read about it on Russian news site rbc.ru but it also refers to the Interfax, and I was not able to find the appropriate Interfax statement.

What actually caught my eye, what "angry". It's kinda hard to imagine the deputy of the Army Headquarters chief angry. For him it's just change of balance which requires change of plans in his organization. After all, he's a very high-level military guy, and not a politician.
* Don't pray for me if you wanna help - just send me a check. *

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Who are we to tell Russia anything? I mean really can any one in the US hold a straight face and tell Russia they have no right to invade a country?



Well, there are those who think brown people don't count...and most of 'em are caucasion.

Blues,
Dave
"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

0